Bayesian mixtures for modelling complex medical data : a case study in Parkinson’s disease

Mixture models are a flexible tool for unsupervised clustering that have found popularity in a vast array of research areas. In studies of medicine, the use of mixtures holds the potential to greatly enhance our understanding of patient responses through the identification of clinically meaningful clusters that, given the complexity of many data sources, may otherwise by intangible. Furthermore, when developed in the Bayesian framework, mixture models provide a natural means for capturing and propagating uncertainty in different aspects of a clustering solution, arguably resulting in richer analyses of the population under study. This thesis aims to investigate the use of Bayesian mixture models in analysing varied and detailed sources of patient information collected in the study of complex disease. The first aim of this thesis is to showcase the flexibility of mixture models in modelling markedly different types of data. In particular, we examine three common variants on the mixture model, namely, finite mixtures, Dirichlet Process mixtures and hidden Markov models. Beyond the development and application of these models to different sources of data, this thesis also focuses on modelling different aspects relating to uncertainty in clustering. Examples of clustering uncertainty considered are uncertainty in a patient’s true cluster membership and accounting for uncertainty in the true number of clusters present. Finally, this thesis aims to address and propose solutions to the task of comparing clustering solutions, whether this be comparing patients or observations assigned to different subgroups or comparing clustering solutions over multiple datasets. To address these aims, we consider a case study in Parkinson’s disease (PD), a complex and commonly diagnosed neurodegenerative disorder. In particular, two commonly collected sources of patient information are considered. The first source of data are on symptoms associated with PD, recorded using the Unified Parkinson’s Disease Rating Scale (UPDRS) and constitutes the first half of this thesis. The second half of this thesis is dedicated to the analysis of microelectrode recordings collected during Deep Brain Stimulation (DBS), a popular palliative treatment for advanced PD. Analysis of this second source of data centers on the problems of unsupervised detection and sorting of action potentials or "spikes" in recordings of multiple cell activity, providing valuable information on real time neural activity in the brain.

Reduced variance in monozygous twins for multiple MR parameters : implications for disease studies and the genetic basis of brain structure

Twin studies offer the opportunity to determine the relative contribution of genes versus environment in traits of interest. Here, we investigate the extent to which variance in brain structure is reduced in monozygous twins with identical genetic make-up. We investigate whether using twins as compared to a control population reduces variability in a number of common magnetic resonance (MR) structural measures, and we investigate the location of areas under major genetic influences. This is fundamental to understanding the benefit of using twins in studies where structure is the phenotype of interest. Twenty-three pairs of healthy MZ twins were compared to matched control pairs. Volume, T2 and diffusion MR imaging were performed as well as spectroscopy (MRS). Images were compared using (i) global measures of standard deviation and effect size, (ii) voxel-based analysis of similarity and (iii) intra-pair correlation. Global measures indicated a consistent increase in structural similarity in twins. The voxel-based and correlation analyses indicated a widespread pattern of increased similarity in twin pairs, particularly in frontal and temporal regions. The areas of increased similarity were most widespread for the diffusion trace and least widespread for T2. MRS showed consistent reduction in metabolite variation that was significant in the temporal lobe N-acetylaspartate (NAA). This study has shown the distribution and magnitude of reduced variability in brain volume, diffusion, T2 and metabolites in twins. The data suggest that evaluation of twins discordant for disease is indeed a valid way to attribute genetic or environmental influences to observed abnormalities in patients since evidence is provided for the underlying assumption of decreased variability in twins.

Estimation on disease burden related to hepatitis B virus infection in Shandong province of China [山东省乙型肝炎病毒感染所致相关疾病的疾病负担研究]

Objective: To comprehensively measure the burden of hepatitis B, liver cirrhosis and liver cancer in Shandong province, using disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) to estimate the disease burden attribute to hepatitis B virus (HBV)infection. Methods: Based on the mortality data of hepatitis B, liver cirrhosis and liver cancer derived from the third National Sampling Retrospective Survey for Causes of Death during 2004 and 2005, the incidence data of hepatitis B and the prevalence and the disability weights of liver cancer gained from the Shandong Cancer Prevalence Sampling Survey in 2007, we calculated the years of life lost (YLLs), years lived with disability (YLDs) and DALYs of three diseases following the procedures developed for the global burden of disease (GBD) study to ensure the comparability. Results: The total burden for hepatitis B, liver cirrhosis and liver cancer were 211 616 (39 377 YLLs and 172 239 YLDs), 16 783 (13 497 YLLs and 3286 YLDs) and 247 795 (240 236 YLLs and 7559 YLDs) DALYs in 2005 respectively, and men were 2.19, 2.36 and 3.16 times as that for women, respectively in Shandong province. The burden for hepatitis B was mainly because of disability (81.39%). However, most burden on liver cirrhosis and liver cancer were due to premature death (80.42% and 96.95%). The burden of each patient related to hepatitis B, liver cirrhosis and liver cancer were 4.8, 13.73 and 11.11 respectively. Conclusion: Hepatitis B, liver cirrhosis and liver cancer caused considerable burden to the people living in Shandong province, indicating that the control of hepatitis B virus infection would bring huge potential benefits.

Estimation on the mortality and disease burden attributed to selected risk factors in Shandong province [山东省主要危险因素的归因死亡和疾病负担分析]

Objective: To determine the major health related risk factors and provide evidence for policy-making,using health burden analysis on selected factors among general population from Shandong province. Methods: Based on data derived from the Third Death of Cause Sampling Survey in Shandong. Years of life lcrat(YLLs),yearS Iived with disability(YLDs)and disability-adjusted life years(DALYs) were calculated according to the GBD ethodology.Deaths and DALYs attributed to the selected risk factors were than estimated together with the PAF data from GBD 2001 study.The indirect method was employed to estimate the YLDs. Results: 51.09%of the total dearlls and 31.83%of the total DALYs from the Shandong population were resulted from the 19 selected risk factors.High blood pre.ure,smoking,low fruit and vegetable intake,aleohol consumption,indoor smoke from solid fuels,high cholesterol,urban air pollution, physical inactivity,overweight and obesity and unsafe injections in health care settings were identified as the top 10 risk faetors for mortality which together caused 50.21%of the total deaths.Alcohol use,smoking,high blood pressure,Low fruit and vegetable intake, indoor smoke from solid fuels, overweight and obesity,high cholesterol, physical inactivity,urban air pollution and iron-deficiency anemia were proved as the top 10 risk factors related to disease burden and were responsible for 29.04%of the total DALYs. Conclusion: Alcohol use.smoking and high blood pressure were determined as the major risk factors which influencing the health of residents in Shandong. The mortality and burden of disease could be reduced significantly if these major factors were effectively under control.

On the resistance to extinction of fear conditioned to angry faces

The present study investigated whether, like fear conditioned to pictures of snakes and spiders, fear conditioned to angry faces resists extinction even after verbal instruction and removal of the shock electrode. Participants were trained in a differential Pavlovian fear conditioning procedure with angry face or happy face conditional stimuli (CSs). Prior to extinction, half the participants in each group were informed that no more unconditional stimuli would be presented and the shock electrode was removed. In the absence of this manipulation, participants showed resistance to extinction after training with angry face CSs, but not after training with happy face CSs. Instructed extinction and electrode removal abolished fear conditioning regardless of the emotion expressed by the CS faces. This finding suggests that fear conditioned to angry faces, like fear conditioned to racial out-group faces, is more malleable than fear conditioned to snakes and spiders.

(Dia)logics of difference disability, performance and spectatorship in Liz Crow's Resistance on the Plinth

In this article I examine how artists with disabilities use public-space performance to encourage passersby to reflect on the construction of public discourses about disability – and, therefore, the construction of publics that are potentially inclusive of people with disabilities. I concentrate on British storyteller, artist, filmmaker and activist Liz Crow's Resistance on the Plinth, one of four pieces Crow has produced over the past three years as part of the Resistance series, an examination of the Nazi regime's Aktion T4 programme, which resulted in the mass murder of a quarter of a million people with disabilities. Created in August 2009 as part of Antony Gormley's One & Other public art project, the piece featured Crow dressed in a Nazi uniform and seated in a wheelchair on the Fourth Plinth in London's Trafalgar Square. For Crow – who creates work in a British context where public debate about the eugenics of genetic testing, euthanasia and assisted suicide is prevalent in the media – the Nazi atrocity is still rich in confronting imagery, resonant and relevant in a contemporary context. In this article, I consider the challenges that Gormley's extremely public One & Other presented for professional artists like Crow, who are committed to intervening in public perceptions of identity, community and culture. I describe the structural choices Crow made to provoke debate about the cultural logics embodied in the image she presented, and analyse some of the spectatorial responses from online forums such as the One & Other website, Facebook and Twitter immediately following the event.

A fission yeast homolog of Int-6, the mammalian oncoprotein and eIF3 subunit, induces drug resistance when overexpressed

Through a screen to identify genes that induce multi-drug resistance when overexpressed, we have identified a fission yeast homolog of Int-6, a component of the human translation initiation factor eIF3. Disruption of the murine Int-6 gene by mouse mammary tumor virus (MMTV) has been implicated previously in tumorigenesis, although the underlying mechanism is not yet understood. Fission yeast Int6 was shown to interact with other presumptive components of eIF3 in vivo, and was present in size fractions consistent with its incorporation into a 43S translation preinitiation complex. Drug resistance induced by Int6 overexpression was dependent on the AP-1 transcription factor Pap1, and was associated with increased abundance of Pap1-responsive mRNAs, but not with Pap1 relocalization. Fission yeast cells lacking the int6 gene grew slowly. This growth retardation could be corrected by the expression of full length Int6 of fission yeast or human origin, or by a C-terminal fragment of the fission yeast protein that also conferred drug resistance, but not by truncated human Int-6 proteins corresponding to the predicted products of MMTV-disrupted murine alleles. Studies in fission yeast may therefore help to explain the ways in which Int-6 function can be perturbed during MMTV-induced mammary tumorigenesis.

The role of insulin in advanced prostate cancer

Advanced prostate cancer is a common and generally incurable disease. Androgen deprivation therapy is used to treat advanced prostate cancer with good benefits to quality of life and regression of disease. Prostate cancer invariably progresses however despite ongoing treatment, to a castrate resistant state. Androgen deprivation is associated with a form of metabolic syndrome, which includes insulin resistance and hyperinsulinaemia. The mitogenic and anti-apoptotic properties of insulin acting through the insulin and hybrid insulin/IGF-1 receptors seem to have positive effects on prostate tumour growth. This pilot study was designed to assess any correlation between elevated insulin levels and progression to castrate resistant prostate cancer. Methods: 36 men receiving ADT for advanced prostate cancer were recruited, at various stages of their treatment, along with 47 controls, men with localised prostate cancer pre-treatment. Serum measurements of C-peptide (used as a surrogate marker for insulin production) were performed and compared between groups. Correlation between serum C-peptide level and time to progression to castrate resistant disease was assessed. Results: There was a significant elevation of C-peptide levels in the ADT group (mean = 1639pmol/L)) compared to the control group (mean = 1169pmol/L), with a p-value of 0.025. In 17 men with good initial response to androgen deprivation, a small negative trend towards earlier progression to castrate resistance with increasing C-peptide level was seen in the ADT group (r = -0.050), however this did not reach statistical significance (p>0.1). Conclusions: This pilot study confirms an increase in serum C-peptide levels in men receiving ADT for advance prostate cancer. A non-significant, but negative trend towards earlier progression to castrate resistance with increasing C-peptide suggests the need for a formal prospective study assessing this hypothesis.

Embedded criminology and knowledges of resistance

This chapter explores the changing intellectual landscapes and market-led research within academic institutions as the rise of 'embedded criminology' and argues for knowledges of resistance.

The relationship between chronic disease self-efficacy and nutritional status, functional ability and quality of life in older adults at risk of hospital readmission

Background and significance: Older adults with chronic diseases are at increasing risk of hospital admission and readmission. Approximately 75% of adults have at least one chronic condition, and the odds of developing a chronic condition increases with age. Chronic diseases consume about 70% of the total Australian health expenditure, and about 59% of hospital events for chronic conditions are potentially preventable. These figures have brought to light the importance of the management of chronic disease among the growing older population. Many studies have endeavoured to develop effective chronic disease management programs by applying social cognitive theory. However, limited studies have focused on chronic disease self-management in older adults at high risk of hospital readmission. Moreover, although the majority of studies have covered wide and valuable outcome measures, there is scant evidence on examining the fundamental health outcomes such as nutritional status, functional status and health-related quality of life. Aim: The aim of this research was to test social cognitive theory in relation to self-efficacy in managing chronic disease and three health outcomes, namely nutritional status, functional status, and health-related quality of life, in older adults at high risk of hospital readmission. Methods: A cross-sectional study design was employed for this research. Three studies were undertaken. Study One examined the nutritional status and validation of a nutritional screening tool; Study Two explored the relationships between participants. characteristics, self-efficacy beliefs, and health outcomes based on the study.s hypothesized model; Study Three tested a theoretical model based on social cognitive theory, which examines potential mechanisms of the mediation effects of social support and self-efficacy beliefs. One hundred and fifty-seven patients aged 65 years and older with a medical admission and at least one risk factor for readmission were recruited. Data were collected from medical records on demographics, medical history, and from self-report questionnaires. The nutrition data were collected by two registered nurses. For Study One, a contingency table and the kappa statistic was used to determine the validity of the Malnutrition Screening Tool. In Study Two, standard multiple regression, hierarchical multiple regression and logistic regression were undertaken to determine the significant influential predictors for the three health outcome measures. For Study Three, a structural equation modelling approach was taken to test the hypothesized self-efficacy model. Results: The findings of Study One suggested that a high prevalence of malnutrition continues to be a concern in older adults as the prevalence of malnutrition was 20.6% according to the Subjective Global Assessment. Additionally, the findings confirmed that the Malnutrition Screening Tool is a valid nutritional screening tool for hospitalized older adults at risk of readmission when compared to the Subjective Global Assessment with high sensitivity (94%), and specificity (89%) and substantial agreement between these two methods (k = .74, p < .001; 95% CI .62-.86). Analysis data for Study Two found that depressive symptoms and perceived social support were the two strongest influential factors for self-efficacy in managing chronic disease in a hierarchical multiple regression. Results of multivariable regression models suggested advancing age, depressive symptoms and less tangible support were three important predictors for malnutrition. In terms of functional status, a standard regression model found that social support was the strongest predictor for the Instrumental Activities of Daily Living, followed by self-efficacy in managing chronic disease. The results of standard multiple regression revealed that the number of hospital readmission risk factors adversely affected the physical component score, while depressive symptoms and self-efficacy beliefs were two significant predictors for the mental component score. In Study Three, the results of the structural equation modelling found that self-efficacy partially mediated the effect of health characteristics and depression on health-related quality of life. The health characteristics had strong direct effects on functional status and body mass index. The results also indicated that social support partially mediated the relationship between health characteristics and functional status. With regard to the joint effects of social support and self-efficacy, social support fully mediated the effect of health characteristics on self-efficacy, and self-efficacy partially mediated the effect of social support on functional status and health-related quality of life. The results also demonstrated that the models fitted the data well with relative high variance explained by the models, implying the hypothesized constructs under discussion were highly relevant, and hence the application for social cognitive theory in this context was supported. Conclusion: This thesis highlights the applicability of social cognitive theory on chronic disease self-management in older adults at risk of hospital readmission. Further studies are recommended to validate and continue to extend the development of social cognitive theory on chronic disease self-management in older adults to improve their nutritional and functional status, and health-related quality of life.