Hierarchical Bayesian modelling of early detection surveillance for plant pest invasions

Early detection surveillance programs aim to find invasions of exotic plant pests and diseases before they are too widespread to eradicate. However, the value of these programs can be difficult to justify when no positive detections are made. To demonstrate the value of pest absence information provided by these programs, we use a hierarchical Bayesian framework to model estimates of incursion extent with and without surveillance. A model for the latent invasion process provides the baseline against which surveillance data are assessed. Ecological knowledge and pest management criteria are introduced into the model using informative priors for invasion parameters. Observation models assimilate information from spatio-temporal presence/absence data to accommodate imperfect detection and generate posterior estimates of pest extent. When applied to an early detection program operating in Queensland, Australia, the framework demonstrates that this typical surveillance regime provides a modest reduction in the estimate that a surveyed district is infested. More importantly, the model suggests that early detection surveillance programs can provide a dramatic reduction in the putative area of incursion and therefore offer a substantial benefit to incursion management. By mapping spatial estimates of the point probability of infestation, the model identifies where future surveillance resources can be most effectively deployed.

Long term survival following the detection of circulating tumour cells in head and neck squamous cell carcinoma

Background Techniques for detecting circulating tumor cells in the peripheral blood of patients with head and neck cancers may identify individuals likely to benefit from early systemic treatment. Methods Reconstruction experiments were used to optimise immunomagnetic enrichment and RT-PCR detection of circulating tumor cells using four markers (ELF3, CK19, EGFR and EphB4). This method was then tested in a pilot study using samples from 16 patients with advanced head and neck carcinomas. Results Seven patients were positive for circulating tumour cells both prior to and after surgery, 4 patients were positive prior to but not after surgery, 3 patients were positive after but not prior to surgery and 2 patients were negative. Two patients tested positive for circulating cells but there was no other evidence of tumor spread. Given this patient cohort had mostly advanced disease, as expected the detection of circulating tumour cells was not associated with significant differences in overall or disease free survival. Conclusion For the first time, we show that almost all patients with advanced head and neck cancers have circulating cells at the time of surgery. The clinical application of techniques for detection of spreading disease, such as the immunomagnetic enrichment RT-PCR analysis used in this study, should be explored further.

Multiple analysis of three common genetic alterations associated with thrombophilia

We have previously reported the use of a novel mini-sequencing protocol for detection of the factor V Leiden variant, the first nucleotide change (FNC) technology. This technology is based on a single nucleotide extension of a primer, which is hybridized immediately adjacent to the site of mutation. The extended nucleotide that carries a reporter molecule (fluorescein) has the power to discriminate the genotype at the site of mutation. More recently, the prothrombin 20210 and thermolabile methylene tetrahydrofolate reductase (MTHFR) 677 variants have been identified as possible risk factors associated with thrombophilia. This study describes the use of the FNC technology in a combined assay to detect factor V, prothrombin and MTHFR variants in a population of Australian blood donors, and describes the objective numerical methodology used to determine genotype cut-off values for each genetic variation. Using FNC to test 500 normal blood donors, the incidence of Factor V Leiden was 3.6% (all heterozygous), that of prothrombin 20210 was 2.8% (all heterozygous) and that of MTHFR was 10% (homozygous). The combined FNC technology offers a simple, rapid, automatable DNA-based test for the detection of these three important mutations that are associated with familial thrombophilia. (C) 2000 Lippincott Williams and Wilkins.

Use of first nucleotide change technology to determine the frequency of factor V Leiden in a population of Australian blood donors

Activated protein C resistance (APCR), the most common risk factor for venous thrombosis, is the result of a G to A base substitution at nucleotide 1691 (R506Q) in the factor V gene. Current techniques to detect the factor V Leiden mutation, such as determination of restriction length polymorphisms, do not have the capacity to screen large numbers of samples in a rapid, cost- effective test. The aim of this study was to apply the first nucleotide change (FNC) technology, to the detection of the factor V Leiden mutation. After preliminary amplification of genomic DNA by polymerase chain reaction (PCR), an allele-specific primer was hybridised to the PCR product and extended using fluorescent terminating dideoxynucleotides which were detected by colorimetric assay. Using this ELISA-based assay, the prevalence of the factor V Leiden mutation was determined in an Australian blood donor population (n = 500). A total of 18 heterozygotes were identified (3.6%) and all of these were confirmed with conventional MnlI restriction digest. No homozygotes for the variant allele were detected. We conclude from this study that the frequency of 3.6% is compatible with others published for Caucasian populations. In addition, the FNC technology shows promise as the basis for a rapid, automated DNA based test for factor V Leiden.

A spoofing detection method for civilian L1 GPS and the E1-B Galileo Safety of Life service

This paper describes an effective method for signal-authentication and spoofing detection for civilian GNSS receivers using the GPS L1 C/A and the Galileo E1-B Safety of Life service. The paper discusses various spoofing attack profiles and how the proposed method is able to detect these attacks. This method is relatively low-cost and can be suitable for numerous mass-market applications. This paper is the subject of a pending patent.

Gap analysis of intrusion detection in smart grids

Given the recent emergence of the smart grid and smart grid related technologies, their security is a prime concern. Intrusion detection provides a second line of defense. However, conventional intrusion detection systems (IDSs) are unable to adequately address the unique requirements of the smart grid. This paper presents a gap analysis of contemporary IDSs from a smart grid perspective. This paper highlights the lack of adequate intrusion detection within the smart grid and discusses the limitations of current IDSs approaches. The gap analysis identifies current IDSs as being unsuited to smart grid application without significant changes to address smart grid specific requirements.

A plasmonic 'ac Wheatstone bridge' circuit for high-sensitivity phase measurement and single-molecule detection

In this paper, a plasmonic “ac Wheatstone bridge” circuit is proposed and theoretically modeled for the first time. The bridge circuit consists of three metallic nanoparticles, shaped as rectangular prisms, with two nanoparticles acting as parallel arms of a resonant circuit and the third bridging nanoparticle acting as an optical antenna providing an output signal. Polarized light excites localized surface plasmon resonances in the two arms of the circuit, which generate an optical signal dependent on the phase-sensitive excitations of surface plasmons in the antenna. The circuit is analyzed using a plasmonic coupling theory and numerical simulations. The analyses show that the plasmonic circuit is sensitive to phase shifts between the arms of the bridge and has the potential to detect the presence of single molecules.