Spatio-temporal patterns of Barmah Forest virus disease in Queensland, Australia

Background Barmah Forest virus (BFV) disease is a common and wide-spread mosquito-borne disease in Australia. This study investigated the spatio-temporal patterns of BFV disease in Queensland, Australia using geographical information system (GIS) tools and geostatistical analysis. Methods/Principal Findings We calculated the incidence rates and standardised incidence rates of BFV disease. Moran's I statistic was used to assess the spatial autocorrelation of BFV incidences. Spatial dynamics of BFV disease was examined using semi-variogram analysis. Interpolation techniques were applied to visualise and display the spatial distribution of BFV disease in statistical local areas (SLAs) throughout Queensland. Mapping of BFV disease by SLAs reveals the presence of substantial spatio-temporal variation over time. Statistically significant differences in BFV incidence rates were identified among age groups (χ2 = 7587, df = 7327,p<0.01). There was a significant positive spatial autocorrelation of BFV incidence for all four periods, with the Moran's I statistic ranging from 0.1506 to 0.2901 (p<0.01). Semi-variogram analysis and smoothed maps created from interpolation techniques indicate that the pattern of spatial autocorrelation was not homogeneous across the state. Conclusions/Significance This is the first study to examine spatial and temporal variation in the incidence rates of BFV disease across Queensland using GIS and geostatistics. The BFV transmission varied with age and gender, which may be due to exposure rates or behavioural risk factors. There are differences in the spatio-temporal patterns of BFV disease which may be related to local socio-ecological and environmental factors. These research findings may have implications in the BFV disease control and prevention programs in Queensland.

Effects of enhanced somatosensory information on postural stability in older people and people with Parkinson’s disease

The somatosensory system plays an important role in balance control and age-related changes to this system have been implicated in falls. Parkinson’s disease (PD) is a chronic and progressive disease of the brain, characterized by postural instability and gait disturbance. Previous research has shown that deficiencies in somatosensory feedback may contribute to the poorer postural control demonstrated by PD individuals. However, few studies have comprehensively explored differences in somatosensory function and postural control between PD participants and healthy older individuals. The soles of the feet contain many cutaneous mechanoreceptors that provide important somatosensory information sources for postural control. Different types of insole devices have been developed to enhance this somatosensory information and improve postural stability, but these devices are often too complex and expensive to integrate into daily life. Textured insoles provide a more passive intervention that may be an inexpensive and accessible means to enhance the somatosensory input from the plantar surface of the feet. However, to date, there has been little work conducted to test the efficacy of enhanced somatosensory input induced by textured insoles in both healthy and PD populations during standing and walking. Therefore, the aims of this thesis were to determine: 1) whether textured insole surfaces can improve postural stability by enhancing somatosensory information in younger and older adults, 2) the differences between healthy older participants and PD participants for measures of physiological function and postural stability during standing and walking, 3) how changes in somatosensory information affect postural stability in both groups during standing and walking; and 4), whether textured insoles can improve postural stability in both groups during standing and walking. To address these aims, Study 1 recruited seven older individuals and ten healthy young controls to investigate the effects of two textured insole surfaces on postural stability while performing standing balance tests on a force plate. Participants were tested under three insole surface conditions: 1) barefoot; 2) standing on a hard textured insole surface; and 3), standing on a soft textured insole surface. Measurements derived from the centre of pressure displacement included the range of anterior-posterior and medial-lateral displacement, path length and the 90% confidence elliptical area (C90 area). Results of study 1 revealed a significant Group*Surface*Insole interaction for the four measures. Both textured insole surfaces reduced postural sway for the older group, especially in the eyes closed condition on the foam surface. However, participants reported that the soft textured insole surface was more comfortable and, hence, the soft textured insoles were adopted for Studies 2 and 3. For Study 2, 20 healthy older adults (controls) and 20 participants with Parkinson’s disease were recruited. Participants were evaluated using a series of physiological assessments that included touch sensitivity, vibratory perception, and pain and temperature threshold detection. Furthermore, nerve function and somatosensory evoked potentials tests were utilized to provide detailed information regarding peripheral nerve function for these participants. Standing balance and walking were assessed on different surfaces using a force plate and the 3D Vicon motion analysis system, respectively. Data derived from the force plate included the range of anterior-posterior and medial-lateral sway, while measures of stride length, stride period, cadence, double support time, stance phase, velocity and stride timing variability were reported for the walking assessment. The results of this study demonstrated that the PD group had decrements in somatosensory function compared to the healthy older control group. For electrodiagnosis, PD participants had poorer nerve function than controls, as evidenced by slower nerve conduction velocities and longer latencies in sural nerve and prolonged latency in the P37 somatosensory evoked potential. Furthermore, the PD group displayed more postural sway in both the anterior-posterior and medial-lateral directions relative to controls and these differences were increased when standing on a foam surface. With respect to the gait assessment, the PD group took shorter strides and had a reduced stride period compared with the control group. Furthermore, the PD group spent more time in the stance phase and had increased cadence and stride timing variability than the controls. Compared with walking on the firm surface, the two groups demonstrated different gait adaptations while walking on the uneven surface. Controls increased their stride length and stride period and decreased their cadence, which resulted in a consistent walking velocity on both surfaces. Conversely, while the PD patients also increased their stride period and decreased their cadence and stance period on the uneven surface, they did not increase their stride length and, hence walked slower on the uneven surface. In the PD group, there was a strong positive association between decreased somatosensory function and decreased clinical balance, as assessed by the Tinetti test. Poorer somatosensory function was also strongly positively correlated with the temporospatial gait parameters, especially shorter stride length. Study 3 evaluated the effects of manipulating the somatosensory information from the plantar surface of the feet using textured insoles in the same populations assessed in Study 2. For this study, participants performed the standing and walking balance tests under three footwear conditions: 1) barefoot; 2) with smooth insoles; and 3), with textured insoles. Standing balance and walking were evaluated using a force plate and a Vicon motion analysis system and the data were analysed in the same way outlined for Study 2. The findings showed that the smooth and textured insoles caused different effects on postural control during both the standing and walking trials. Both insoles decreased medial-lateral sway to the same level on the firm surface. The greatest benefits were observed in the PD group while wearing the textured insole. When standing under a more challenging condition on the foam surface with eyes closed, only the textured insole decreased medial-lateral sway in the PD group. With respect to the gait trials, both insoles increased walking velocity, stride length and stride time and decreased cadence, but these changes were more pronounced for the textured insoles. The effects of the textured insoles were evident under challenging conditions in the PD group and increased walking velocity and stride length, while decreasing cadence. Textured insoles were also effective in reducing the time spent in the double support and stance phases of the gait cycle and did not increase stride timing variability, as was the case for the smooth insoles for the PD group. The results of this study suggest that textured insoles, such as those evaluated in this research, may provide a low-cost means of improving postural stability in high-risk groups, such as people with PD, which may act as an important intervention to prevent falls.

Numerical and experimental studies of cold-formed steel floor systems under standard fire conditions

Light gauge cold-formed steel frame (LSF) structures are increasingly used in industrial, commercial and residential buildings because of their non-combustibility, dimensional stability, and ease of installation. A floor-ceiling system is an example of its applications. LSF floor-ceiling systems must be designed to serve as fire compartment boundaries and provide adequate fire resistance. Fire rated floor-ceiling assemblies formed with new materials and construction methodologies have been increasingly used in buildings. However, limited research has been undertaken in the past and hence a thorough understanding of their fire resistance behaviour is not available. Recently a new composite panel in which an external insulation layer is used between two plasterboards has been developed at QUT to provide a higher fire rating to LSF floors under standard fire conditions. But its increased fire rating could not be determined using the currently available design methods. Research on LSF floor systems under fire conditions is relatively recent and the behaviour of floor joists and other components in the systems is not fully understood. The present design methods thus require the use of expensive fire protection materials to protect them from excessive heat increase during a fire. This leads to uneconomical and conservative designs. Fire rating of these floor systems is provided simply by adding more plasterboard sheets to the steel joists and such an approach is totally inefficient. Hence a detailed fire research study was undertaken into the structural and thermal performance of LSF floor systems including those protected by the new composite panel system using full scale fire tests and extensive numerical studies. Experimental study included both the conventional and the new steel floor-ceiling systems under structural and fire loads using a gas furnace designed to deliver heat in accordance with the standard time- temperature curve in AS 1530.4 (SA, 2005). Fire tests included the behavioural and deflection characteristics of LSF floor joists until failure as well as related time-temperature measurements across the section and along the length of all the specimens. Full scale fire tests have shown that the structural and thermal performance of externally insulated LSF floor system was superior than traditional LSF floors with or without cavity insulation. Therefore this research recommends the use of the new composite panel system for cold-formed LSF floor-ceiling systems. The numerical analyses of LSF floor joists were undertaken using the finite element program ABAQUS based on the measured time-temperature profiles obtained from fire tests under both steady state and transient state conditions. Mechanical properties at elevated temperatures were considered based on the equations proposed by Dolamune Kankanamge and Mahendran (2011). Finite element models were calibrated using the full scale test results and used to further provide a detailed understanding of the structural fire behaviour of the LSF floor-ceiling systems. The models also confirmed the superior performance of the new composite panel system. The validated model was then used in a detailed parametric study. Fire tests and the numerical studies showed that plasterboards provided sufficient lateral restraint to LSF floor joists until their failure. Hence only the section moment capacity of LSF floor joists subjected to local buckling effects was considered in this research. To predict the section moment capacity at elevated temperatures, the effective section modulus of joists at ambient temperature is generally considered adequate. However, this research has shown that it leads to considerable over- estimation of the local buckling capacity of joist subject to non-uniform temperature distributions under fire conditions. Therefore new simplified fire design rules were proposed for LSF floor joist to determine the section moment capacity at elevated temperature based on AS/NZS 4600 (SA, 2005), NAS (AISI, 2007) and Eurocode 3 Part 1.3 (ECS, 2006). The accuracy of the proposed fire design rules was verified with finite element analysis results. A spread sheet based design tool was also developed based on these design rules to predict the failure load ratio versus time, moment capacity versus time and temperature for various LSF floor configurations. Idealised time-temperature profiles of LSF floor joists were developed based on fire test measurements. They were used in the detailed parametric study to fully understand the structural and fire behaviour of LSF floor panels. Simple design rules were also proposed to predict both critical average joist temperatures and failure times (fire rating) of LSF floor systems with various floor configurations and structural parameters under any given load ratio. Findings from this research have led to a comprehensive understanding of the structural and fire behaviour of LSF floor systems including those protected by the new composite panel, and simple design methods. These design rules were proposed within the guidelines of the Australian/New Zealand, American and European cold- formed steel structures standard codes of practice. These may also lead to further improvements to fire resistance through suitable modifications to the current composite panel system.

Fire Tests of Cold-formed Steel Wall Systems

Cold-formed steel stud walls are an important component of Light Steel Framing (LSF) building systems used in commercial, industrial and residential buildings. In the conventional LSF stud wall systems, thin-walled steel studs are protected from fire by placing one or two layers of plasterboard on both sides with or without cavity insulation. However, there is very limited data about the structural and thermal performance of these wall systems while past research showed contradicting results about the benefits of cavity insulation. This research proposed a new LSF stud wall system in which a composite panel made of two plasterboards with insulation between them was used to improve the fire rating of walls. Full scale fire tests were conducted using both conventional steel stud walls with and without the use of cavity insulation and the new composite panel system. Eleven full scale load bearing wall specimens were tested to study the thermal and structural performances of the load bearing wall assemblies under standard fire conditions. These tests showed that the use of cavity insulation led to inferior fire performance of walls while also providing good explanations and supporting test data to overcome the incorrect industry assumptions about cavity insulation. Tests demonstrated that the use of external insulation in a composite panel form enhanced the thermal and structural performances of stud walls and increased their fire resistance rating significantly. This paper presents the details of the full scale fire tests of load-bearing wall assemblies lined with plasterboards and different types of insulation under varying load ratios. Test results including the temperature and deflection profiles of walls measured during the fire tests will be presented along with their failure modes and failure times.

Dirichlet process mixture models for unsupervised clustering of symptoms in Parkinson's disease

In this paper, the goal of identifying disease subgroups based on differences in observed symptom profile is considered. Commonly referred to as phenotype identification, solutions to this task often involve the application of unsupervised clustering techniques. In this paper, we investigate the application of a Dirichlet Process mixture (DPM) model for this task. This model is defined by the placement of the Dirichlet Process (DP) on the unknown components of a mixture model, allowing for the expression of uncertainty about the partitioning of observed data into homogeneous subgroups. To exemplify this approach, an application to phenotype identification in Parkinson’s disease (PD) is considered, with symptom profiles collected using the Unified Parkinson’s Disease Rating Scale (UPDRS). Clustering, Dirichlet Process mixture, Parkinson’s disease, UPDRS.

Cold and heat waves in the United States

Extreme cold and heat waves, characterised by a number of cold or hot days in succession, place a strain on people’s cardiovascular and respiratory systems. The increase in deaths due to these waves may be greater than that predicted by extreme temperatures alone. We examined cold and heat waves in 99 US cities for 14 years (1987–2000) and investigated how the risk of death depended on the temperature threshold used to define a wave, and a wave’s timing, duration and intensity. We defined cold and heat waves using temperatures above and below cold and heat thresholds for two or more days. We tried five cold thresholds using the first to fifth percentiles of temperature, and five heat thresholds using the ninety-fifth to ninety-ninth percentiles. The extra wave effects were estimated using a two-stage model to ensure that their effects were estimated after removing the general effects of temperature. The increases in deaths associated with cold waves were generally small and not statistically significant, and there was even evidence of a decreased risk during the coldest waves. Heat waves generally increased the risk of death, particularly for the hottest heat threshold. Cold waves of a colder intensity or longer duration were not more dangerous. Cold waves earlier in the cool season were more dangerous, as were heat waves earlier in the warm season. In general there was no increased risk of death during cold waves above the known increased risk associated with cold temperatures. Cold or heat waves earlier in the cool or warm season may be more dangerous because of a build up in the susceptible pool or a lack of preparedness for cold or hot temperatures.