Robustness in health research : do differences in health measures, techniques, and time frame matter?

Survey-based health research is in a boom phase following an increased amount of health spending in OECD countries and the interest in ageing. A general characteristic of survey-based health research is its diversity. Different studies are based on different health questions in different datasets; they use different statistical techniques; they differ in whether they approach health from an ordinal or cardinal perspective; and they differ in whether they measure short-term or long-term effects. The question in this paper is simple: do these differences matter for the findings? We investigate the effects of life-style choices (drinking, smoking, exercise) and income on six measures of health in the US Health and Retirement Study (HRS) between 1992 and 2002: (1) self-assessed general health status, (2) problems with undertaking daily tasks and chores, (3) mental health indicators, (4) BMI, (5) the presence of serious long-term health conditions, and (6) mortality. We compare ordinal models with cardinal models; we compare models with fixed effects to models without fixed-effects; and we compare short-term effects to long-term effects. We find considerable variation in the impact of different determinants on our chosen health outcome measures; we find that it matters whether ordinality or cardinality is assumed; we find substantial differences between estimates that account for fixed effects versus those that do not; and we find that short-run and long-run effects differ greatly. All this implies that health is an even more complicated notion than hitherto thought, defying generalizations from one measure to the others or one methodology to another.

Fundamental solution and discrete random walk model for time-space fractional diffusion equation

In this paper, we consider a time-space fractional diffusion equation of distributed order (TSFDEDO). The TSFDEDO is obtained from the standard advection-dispersion equation by replacing the first-order time derivative by the Caputo fractional derivative of order α∈(0,1], the first-order and second-order space derivatives by the Riesz fractional derivatives of orders β 1∈(0,1) and β 2∈(1,2], respectively. We derive the fundamental solution for the TSFDEDO with an initial condition (TSFDEDO-IC). The fundamental solution can be interpreted as a spatial probability density function evolving in time. We also investigate a discrete random walk model based on an explicit finite difference approximation for the TSFDEDO-IC.

Near real-time prediction of Zenith Tropospheric Delays for position estimation over long-baseline CORS network

This paper presents the preliminary results in establishing a strategy for predicting Zenith Tropospheric Delay (ZTD) and relative ZTD (rZTD) between Continuous Operating Reference Stations (CORS) in near real-time. It is anticipated that the predicted ZTD or rZTD can assist the network-based Real-Time Kinematic (RTK) performance over long inter-station distances, ultimately, enabling a cost effective method of delivering precise positioning services to sparsely populated regional areas, such as Queensland. This research firstly investigates two ZTD solutions: 1) the post-processed IGS ZTD solution and 2) the near Real-Time ZTD solution. The near Real-Time solution is obtained through the GNSS processing software package (Bernese) that has been deployed for this project. The predictability of the near Real-Time Bernese solution is analyzed and compared to the post-processed IGS solution where it acts as the benchmark solution. The predictability analyses were conducted with various prediction time of 15, 30, 45, and 60 minutes to determine the error with respect to timeliness. The predictability of ZTD and relative ZTD is determined (or characterized) by using the previously estimated ZTD as the predicted ZTD of current epoch. This research has shown that both the ZTD and relative ZTD predicted errors are random in nature; the STD grows from a few millimeters to sub-centimeters while the predicted delay interval ranges from 15 to 60 minutes. Additionally, the RZTD predictability shows very little dependency on the length of tested baselines of up to 1000 kilometers. Finally, the comparison of near Real-Time Bernese solution with IGS solution has shown a slight degradation in the prediction accuracy. The less accurate NRT solution has an STD error of 1cm within the delay of 50 minutes. However, some larger errors of up to 10cm are observed.

Evaluating Specification Tests for Markov-Switching Time-Series Models

We evaluate the performance of several specification tests for Markov regime-switching time-series models. We consider the Lagrange multiplier (LM) and dynamic specification tests of Hamilton (1996) and Ljung–Box tests based on both the generalized residual and a standard-normal residual constructed using the Rosenblatt transformation. The size and power of the tests are studied using Monte Carlo experiments. We find that the LM tests have the best size and power properties. The Ljung–Box tests exhibit slight size distortions, though tests based on the Rosenblatt transformation perform better than the generalized residual-based tests. The tests exhibit impressive power to detect both autocorrelation and autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity (ARCH). The tests are illustrated with a Markov-switching generalized ARCH (GARCH) model fitted to the US dollar–British pound exchange rate, with the finding that both autocorrelation and GARCH effects are needed to adequately fit the data.

The influence of travel time and size of shopping center towards the frequencies of visiting customers in shopping centers in surabaya

Visiting a modern shopping center is becoming vital in our society nowadays. The fast growth of shopping center, transportation system, and modern vehicles has given more choices for consumers in shopping. Although there are many reasons for the consumers in visiting the shopping center, the influence of travel time and size of shopping center are important things to be considered towards the frequencies of visiting customers in shopping centers. A survey to the customers of three major shopping centers in Surabaya has been conducted to evaluate the Ellwood’s model and Huff’s model. A new exponent value N of 0.48 and n of 0.50 has been found from the Ellwood’s model, while a coefficient of 0.267 and an add value of 0.245 have been found from the Huff’s model.

Voter behaviour and constitutional change in Australia since 1967

Australian Constitutional referendums have been part of the Australian political system since federation. Up to the year 1999 (the time of the last referendum in Australia), constitutional change in Australia does not have a good history of acceptance. Since 1901, there have been 44 proposed constitutional changes with eight gaining the required acceptance according to section 128 of the Australian Constitution. In the modern era since 1967, there have been 20 proposals over seven referendum votes for a total of four changes. Over this same period, there have been 13 federal general elections which have realised change in government just five times. This research examines the electoral behaviour of Australian voters from 1967 to 1999 for each referendum. Party identification has long been a key indicator in general election voting. This research considers whether the dominant theory of voter behaviour in general elections (the Michigan Model) provides a plausible explanation for voting in Australian referendums. In order to explain electoral behaviour in each referendum, this research has utilised available data from the Australian Electoral Commission, the 1996 Australian Bureau of Statistics Census data, and the 1999 Australian Constitutional Referendum Study. This data has provided the necessary variables required to measure the impact of the Michigan Model of voter behaviour. Measurements have been conducted using bivariate and multivariate analyses. Each referendum provides an overview of the events at the time of the referendum as well as the =yes‘ and =no‘ cases at the time each referendum was initiated. Results from this research provide support for the Michigan Model of voter behaviour in Australian referendum voting. This research concludes that party identification, as a key variable of the Michigan Model, shows that voters continue to take their cues for voting from the political party they identify with in Australian referendums. However, the outcome of Australian referendums clearly shows that partisanship is only one of a number of contributory factors in constitutional referendums.

Effects of switching time on output voltages of a multilevel inverter used in high frequency applications

Employing multilevel inverters is a proper solution to reduce harmonic content of output voltage and electromagnetic interference in high power electronic applications. In this paper, a new pulse width modulation method for multilevel inverters is proposed in which power devices’ on-off switching times have been considered. This method can be surveyed in order to analyse the effect of switching time on harmonic contents of output voltage in high frequency applications when a switching time is not negligible compared to a switching cycle. Fast Fourier transform calculation and analysis of output voltage waveforms and harmonic contents with regard to switching time variation are presented in this paper for a single phase (3, 5)-level inverters used in high voltage and high frequency converters. Mathematical analysis and MATLAB simulation results have been carried out to validate the proposed method.

Robust real time multi-layer foreground segmentation

Many surveillance applications (object tracking, abandoned object detection) rely on detecting changes in a scene. Foreground segmentation is an effective way to extract the foreground from the scene, but these techniques cannot discriminate between objects that have temporarily stopped and those that are moving. We propose a series of modifications to an existing foreground segmentation system\cite{Butler2003} so that the foreground is further segmented into two or more layers. This yields an active layer of objects currently in motion and a passive layer of objects that have temporarily ceased motion which can itself be decomposed into multiple static layers. We also propose a variable threshold to cope with variable illumination, a feedback mechanism that allows an external process (i.e. surveillance system) to alter the motion detectors state, and a lighting compensation process and a shadow detector to reduce errors caused by lighting inconsistencies. The technique is demonstrated using outdoor surveillance footage, and is shown to be able to effectively deal with real world lighting conditions and overlapping objects.

Scene invariant crowd counting for real-time surveillance

Automated crowd counting allows excessive crowding to be detected immediately, without the need for constant human surveillance. Current crowd counting systems are location specific, and for these systems to function properly they must be trained on a large amount of data specific to the target location. As such, configuring multiple systems to use is a tedious and time consuming exercise. We propose a scene invariant crowd counting system which can easily be deployed at a different location to where it was trained. This is achieved using a global scaling factor to relate crowd sizes from one scene to another. We demonstrate that a crowd counting system trained at one viewpoint can achieve a correct classification rate of 90% at a different viewpoint.

Small Business and entrepreneurship policy

There are two key approaches to entrepreneurship, each of which has different implications for small business policy (Danson 2002). The first conceives of entrepreneurship as an economic process and can be traced to the work of Joseph Schumpeter who developed the concept of creative destruction to describe the entrepreneurial process that led to the simultaneous elimination of old industries and activities and the creation of new activities through the commercial application of new ideas. While entrepreneurship as a process of creative destruction might include start up activity amongst small firms, it does not exclusively involve small firms as large firms may contribute to the entrepreneurial process through the generation of new knowledge and by assisting in financing the development of new ideas amongst small firms. Although innovation occurs in large as well as small firms, the literature on small enterprise innovation draws heavily on Schumpeter’s depiction of the central role of the entrepreneur in the process of creative destruction, whereby the economic system is transformed from within and new cycles in economic life emerge in which new industries and markets replace old industries and markets. Schumpeter argued that entrepreneurs drove the process of innovation and that innovation was a stimulus to economic development and involved the development of new products, processes, methods of production or new forms of commercial or financial organisation (Schumpeter 1911). At a time when technological development and structuraleconomic change are occurring at a rapid pace, small firm innovation is seen to be critically important because empirical evidence, although not undisputed, indicates that SMEs make an important contribution to radical innovations in new industries (Nooteboom 1994). The second view of entrepreneurship focuses on the individual entrepreneur more than the entrepreneurial process. The entrepreneur is depicted as an owner of small businesses, and is regarded as having particular personal characteristics such as self-reliance, individual initiative and self-motivation. Entrepreneurs are also considered to have a behavioural orientation towards the exploitation of new ideas and opportunities. They are the risk takers who are able to see an opportunity and pursue it commercially despite the uncertainty of rewards. The capacity to plan, manage and lead is also seen to be identifying characteristics of entrepreneurs. Different small business policy approaches arise from these different perspectives on entrepreneurship. Small business policy approaches that emphasise the process by which new ideas are generated and applied commercially arise from the first and broader view of entrepreneurship. Policies designed to generate a population of risk taking and self-motivated individuals with highly developed management and commercial skills are more in keeping with the second approach, which is focused on the individual entrepreneur rather than the entrepreneurial process.