Bayesian designs with frequentist and Bayesian error rate considerations

So far, most Phase II trials have been designed and analysed under a frequentist framework. Under this framework, a trial is designed so that the overall Type I and Type II errors of the trial are controlled at some desired levels. Recently, a number of articles have advocated the use of Bavesian designs in practice. Under a Bayesian framework, a trial is designed so that the trial stops when the posterior probability of treatment is within certain prespecified thresholds. In this article, we argue that trials under a Bayesian framework can also be designed to control frequentist error rates. We introduce a Bayesian version of Simon's well-known two-stage design to achieve this goal. We also consider two other errors, which are called Bayesian errors in this article because of their similarities to posterior probabilities. We show that our method can also control these Bayesian-type errors. We compare our method with other recent Bayesian designs in a numerical study and discuss implications of different designs on error rates. An example of a clinical trial for patients with nasopharyngeal carcinoma is used to illustrate differences of the different designs.

Development and Simulation of a Variable Rate Controller for an Air search and Air Sampling Unmanned Aerial System

This report describes the development and simulation of a variable rate controller for a 6-degree of freedom nonlinear model. The variable rate simulation model represents an off the shelf autopilot. Flight experiment involves risks and can be expensive. Therefore a dynamic model to understand the performance characteristics of the UAS in mission simulation before actual flight test or to obtain parameters needed for the flight is important. The control and guidance is implemented in Simulink. The report tests the use of the model for air search and air sampling path planning. A GUI in which a set of mission scenarios, in which two experts (mission expert, i.e. air sampling or air search and an UAV expert) interact, is presented showing the benefits of the method.

Estimating cell diffusivity and cell proliferation rate by interpreting IncuCyte ZOOM™ assay data using the Fisher-Kolmogorov model

Background: Standard methods for quantifying IncuCyte ZOOM™ assays involve measurements that quantify how rapidly the initially-vacant area becomes re-colonised with cells as a function of time. Unfortunately, these measurements give no insight into the details of the cellular-level mechanisms acting to close the initially-vacant area. We provide an alternative method enabling us to quantify the role of cell motility and cell proliferation separately. To achieve this we calibrate standard data available from IncuCyte ZOOM™ images to the solution of the Fisher-Kolmogorov model. Results: The Fisher-Kolmogorov model is a reaction-diffusion equation that has been used to describe collective cell spreading driven by cell migration, characterised by a cell diffusivity, D, and carrying capacity limited proliferation with proliferation rate, λ, and carrying capacity density, K. By analysing temporal changes in cell density in several subregions located well-behind the initial position of the leading edge we estimate λ and K. Given these estimates, we then apply automatic leading edge detection algorithms to the images produced by the IncuCyte ZOOM™ assay and match this data with a numerical solution of the Fisher-Kolmogorov equation to provide an estimate of D. We demonstrate this method by applying it to interpret a suite of IncuCyte ZOOM™ assays using PC-3 prostate cancer cells and obtain estimates of D, λ and K. Comparing estimates of D, λ and K for a control assay with estimates of D, λ and K for assays where epidermal growth factor (EGF) is applied in varying concentrations confirms that EGF enhances the rate of scratch closure and that this stimulation is driven by an increase in D and λ, whereas K is relatively unaffected by EGF. Conclusions: Our approach for estimating D, λ and K from an IncuCyte ZOOM™ assay provides more detail about cellular-level behaviour than standard methods for analysing these assays. In particular, our approach can be used to quantify the balance of cell migration and cell proliferation and, as we demonstrate, allow us to quantify how the addition of growth factors affects these processes individually.

Direct measurement of inner prosthesis loading during activities of daily living: Proposal for classification of functional outcome

Background The purpose of this presentation is to outline the relevance of the categorization of the load regime data to assess the functional output and usage of the prosthesis of lower limb amputees. The objectives are • To highlight the need for categorisation of activities of daily living • To present a categorization of load regime applied on residuum, • To present some descriptors of the four types of activity that could be detected, • To provide an example the results for a case. Methods The load applied on the osseointegrated fixation of one transfemoral amputee was recorded using a portable kinetic system for 5 hours. The load applied on the residuum was divided in four types of activities corresponding to inactivity, stationary loading, localized locomotion and directional locomotion as detailed in previously publications. Results The periods of directional locomotion, localized locomotion, and stationary loading occurred 44%, 34%, and 22% of recording time and each accounted for 51%, 38%, and 12% of the duration of the periods of activity, respectively. The absolute maximum force during directional locomotion, localized locomotion, and stationary loading was 19%, 15%, and 8% of the body weight on the anteroposterior axis, 20%, 19%, and 12% on the mediolateral axis, and 121%, 106%, and 99% on the long axis. A total of 2,783 gait cycles were recorded. Discussion Approximately 10% more gait cycles and 50% more of the total impulse than conventional analyses were identified. The proposed categorization and apparatus have the potential to complement conventional instruments, particularly for difficult cases.

Functional evaluation of genetic variants associated with endometriosis near GREB1

STUDY QUESTION: Do DNA variants in the growth regulation by estrogen in breast cancer 1 (GREB1) region regulate endometrial GREB1 expression and increase the risk of developing endometriosis in women? SUMMARY ANSWER: We identified new single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) with strong association with endometriosis at the GREB1 locus although we did not detect altered GREB1 expression in endometriosis patients with defined genotypes. WHAT IS ALREADY KNOWN: Genome-wide association studies have identified the GREB1 region on chromosome 2p25.1 for increasing endometriosis risk. The differential expression of GREB1 has also been reported by others in association with endometriosis disease phenotype. STUDY DESIGN, SIZE, DURATION: Fine mapping studies comprehensively evaluated SNPs within the GREB1 region in a large-scale data set (>2500 cases and >4000 controls). Publicly available bioinformatics tools were employed to functionally annotate SNPs showing the strongest association signal with endometriosis risk. Endometrial GREB1 mRNA and protein expression was studied with respect to phases of the menstrual cycle (n = 2-45 per cycle stage) and expression quantitative trait loci (eQTL) analysis for significant SNPs were undertaken for GREB1 [mRNA (n = 94) and protein (n = 44) in endometrium]. PARTICIPANTS/MATERIALS, SETTING, METHODS: Participants in this study are females who provided blood and/or endometrial tissue samples in a hospital setting. The key SNPs were genotyped using Sequenom MassARRAY. The functional roles and regulatory annotations for identified SNPs are predicted by various publicly available bioinformatics tools. Endometrial GREB1 expression work employed qRT-PCR, western blotting and immunohistochemistry studies. MAIN RESULTS AND THE ROLE OF CHANCE: Fine mapping results identified a number of SNPs showing stronger association (0.004 < P < 0.032) with endometriosis risk than the original GWAS SNP (rs13394619) (P = 0.034). Some of these SNPs were predicted to have functional roles, for example, interaction with transcription factor motifs. The haplotype (a combination of alleles) formed by the risk alleles from two common SNPs showed significant association (P = 0.026) with endometriosis and epistasis analysis showed no evidence for interaction between the two SNPs, suggesting an additive effect of SNPs on endometriosis risk. In normal human endometrium, GREB1 protein expression was altered depending on the cycle stage (significantly different in late proliferative versus late secretory, P < 0.05) and cell type (glandular epithelium, not stromal cells). However, GREB1 expression in endometriosis cases versus controls and eQTL analyses did not reveal any significant changes. LIMITATIONS, REASONS FOR CAUTION: In silico prediction tools are generally based on cell lines different to our tissue and disease of interest. Functional annotations drawn from these analyses should be considered with this limitation in mind. We identified cell-specific and hormone-specific changes in GREB1 protein expression. The lack of a significant difference observed following our GREB1 expression studies may be the result of moderate power on mixed cell populations in the endometrial tissue samples. WIDER IMPLICATIONS OF THE FINDINGS: This study further implicates the GREB1 region on chromosome 2p25.1 and the GREB1 gene with involvement in endometriosis risk. More detailed functional studies are required to determine the role of the novel GREB1 transcripts in endometriosis pathophysiology. STUDY FUNDING/COMPETING INTERESTS: Funding for this work was provided by NHMRC Project Grants APP1012245, APP1026033, APP1049472 and APP1046880. There are no competing interests.

Surgical fusion of early onset severe scoliosis increases survival in Rett syndrome: A cohort study

Aim Scoliosis is a common co-morbidity in Rett syndrome and spinal fusion may be recommended if severe. We investigated the impact of spinal fusion on survival and risk of severe lower respiratory tract infection in Rett syndrome. Method Data were ascertained from hospital medical records, the Australian Rett Syndrome Database, a longitudinal and population-based registry, and from the Australian Institute of Health and Welfare National Death Index database. Cox regression and generalized estimating equation models were used to estimate the effects of spinal surgery on survival and severe respiratory infection respectively in 140 females who developed severe scoliosis (Cobb angle ≥45°) before adulthood. Results After adjusting for mutation type and age of scoliosis onset, the rate of death was lower in the surgery group (hazard ratio [HR] 0.30, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.12–0.74; p=0.009) compared to those without surgery. Rate of death was particularly reduced for those with early onset scoliosis (HR 0.17, 95% CI 0.06–0.52; p=0.002). There was some evidence to suggest that spinal fusion was associated with a reduction in risk of severe respiratory infection among those with early onset scoliosis (risk ratio 0.41, 95% CI 0.16–1.03; p=0.06). Interpretation With appropriate cautions, spinal fusion confers an advantage to life expectancy in Rett syndrome.

Experimental and numerical investigation of strain-rate-dependent behavior of kangaroo shoulder cartilage

This thesis introduces a new animal model, kangaroo, to biomechanical investigations of shoulder cartilage research. It examines the effect of cartilage structure and constituents on tissue behavior and its adaptation to mechanical loading. In doing so, the study explains the relationship of tissue's functional behaviors to its structure and constituents which has important implications for tissue engineering strategies catering joint specific cartilage tissue generation.

Adaptive frequency scaled wavelet packet decomposition for frog call classification

Environmental changes have put great pressure on biological systems leading to the rapid decline of biodiversity. To monitor this change and protect biodiversity, animal vocalizations have been widely explored by the aid of deploying acoustic sensors in the field. Consequently, large volumes of acoustic data are collected. However, traditional manual methods that require ecologists to physically visit sites to collect biodiversity data are both costly and time consuming. Therefore it is essential to develop new semi-automated and automated methods to identify species in automated audio recordings. In this study, a novel feature extraction method based on wavelet packet decomposition is proposed for frog call classification. After syllable segmentation, the advertisement call of each frog syllable is represented by a spectral peak track, from which track duration, dominant frequency and oscillation rate are calculated. Then, a k-means clustering algorithm is applied to the dominant frequency, and the centroids of clustering results are used to generate the frequency scale for wavelet packet decomposition (WPD). Next, a new feature set named adaptive frequency scaled wavelet packet decomposition sub-band cepstral coefficients is extracted by performing WPD on the windowed frog calls. Furthermore, the statistics of all feature vectors over each windowed signal are calculated for producing the final feature set. Finally, two well-known classifiers, a k-nearest neighbour classifier and a support vector machine classifier, are used for classification. In our experiments, we use two different datasets from Queensland, Australia (18 frog species from commercial recordings and field recordings of 8 frog species from James Cook University recordings). The weighted classification accuracy with our proposed method is 99.5% and 97.4% for 18 frog species and 8 frog species respectively, which outperforms all other comparable methods.

R1STM: One-class support tensor machine with randomised kernel

Identifying unusual or anomalous patterns in an underlying dataset is an important but challenging task in many applications. The focus of the unsupervised anomaly detection literature has mostly been on vectorised data. However, many applications are more naturally described using higher-order tensor representations. Approaches that vectorise tensorial data can destroy the structural information encoded in the high-dimensional space, and lead to the problem of the curse of dimensionality. In this paper we present the first unsupervised tensorial anomaly detection method, along with a randomised version of our method. Our anomaly detection method, the One-class Support Tensor Machine (1STM), is a generalisation of conventional one-class Support Vector Machines to higher-order spaces. 1STM preserves the multiway structure of tensor data, while achieving significant improvement in accuracy and efficiency over conventional vectorised methods. We then leverage the theory of nonlinear random projections to propose the Randomised 1STM (R1STM). Our empirical analysis on several real and synthetic datasets shows that our R1STM algorithm delivers comparable or better accuracy to a state-of-the-art deep learning method and traditional kernelised approaches for anomaly detection, while being approximately 100 times faster in training and testing.

When and why threats go undetected: Impacts of event rate and shift length on threat detection accuracy during airport baggage screening

Objective: We aimed to assess the impact of task demands and individual characteristics on threat detection in baggage screeners. Background: Airport security staff work under time constraints to ensure optimal threat detection. Understanding the impact of individual characteristics and task demands on performance is vital to ensure accurate threat detection. Method: We examined threat detection in baggage screeners as a function of event rate (i.e., number of bags per minute) and time on task across 4 months. We measured performance in terms of the accuracy of detection of Fictitious Threat Items (FTIs) randomly superimposed on X-ray images of real passenger bags. Results: Analyses of the percentage of correct FTI identifications (hits) show that longer shifts with high baggage throughput result in worse threat detection. Importantly, these significant performance decrements emerge within the first 10 min of these busy screening shifts only. Conclusion: Longer shift lengths, especially when combined with high baggage throughput, increase the likelihood that threats go undetected. Application: Shorter shift rotations, although perhaps difficult to implement during busy screening periods, would ensure more consistently high vigilance in baggage screeners and, therefore, optimal threat detection and passenger safety.

The Pandolf load carriage equation is a poor predictor of metabolic rate while wearing explosive ordnance disposal protective clothing

This investigation aimed to quantify metabolic rate when wearing an explosive ordnance disposal (EOD) ensemble (~33kg) during standing and locomotion; and determine whether the Pandolf load carriage equation accurately predicts metabolic rate when wearing an EOD ensemble during standing and locomotion. Ten males completed 8 trials with metabolic rate measured through indirect calorimetry. Walking in EOD at 2.5, 4.0 and 5.5km·h−1 was significantly (p < 0.05) greater than matched trials without the EOD ensemble by 49% (127W), 65% (213W) and 78% (345W), respectively. Mean bias (95% limits of agreement) between predicted and measured metabolism during standing, 2.5, 4 and 5.5km·h−1 were 47W (19 to 75W); −111W (−172 to −49W); −122W (−189 to −54W) and −158W (−245 to −72W), respectively. The Pandolf equation significantly underestimated measured metabolic rate during locomotion. These findings have practical implications for EOD technicians during training and operation and should be considered when developing maximum workload duration models and work-rest schedules.

Eye movements and road hazard detection: Effects of blur and distractors

Purpose To examine the effects of optical blur, auditory distractors and age on eye movement patterns while performing a driving hazard perception test (HPT). Methods Twenty young (mean age 27.1 ± 4.6 years) and 20 older (73.3 ± 5.7 years) drivers with normal vision completed a HPT in a repeated-measures counterbalanced design while their eye movements were recorded. Testing was performed under two visual (best-corrected vision and with +2.00DS blur) and two distractor (with and without auditory distraction) conditions. Participants were required to respond to road hazards appearing in the HPT videos of real-world driving scenes and their hazard response times were recorded. Results Blur and distractors each significantly delayed hazard response time, by 0.42 and 0.76s respectively (p<0.05). A significant interaction between age and distractors indicated that older drivers were more affected by distractors than young drivers (response with distractors delayed by 0.96 and 0.60s respectively). There were no other two- or three-way interaction effect on response time. With blur, both groups fixated significantly longer on hazards before responding compared to best-corrected vision. In the presence of distractors, both groups exhibited delayed first fixation on the hazards and spent less time fixating on the hazards. There were also significant differences in eye movement characteristics between groups, where older drivers exhibited smaller saccades, delayed first fixation on hazards, and shorter fixation duration on hazards compared to the young drivers. Conclusions Collectively, the findings of delayed hazard response times and alterations in eye movement patterns with blur and distractors provide further evidence that visual impairment and distractors are independently detrimental to driving safety given that delayed hazard response times are linked to increased crash risk.

Ship collision avoidance and COLREGS compliance using simulation-based control behavior selection with predictive hazard assessment

This paper describes a concept for a collision avoidance system for ships, which is based on model predictive control. A finite set of alternative control behaviors are generated by varying two parameters: offsets to the guidance course angle commanded to the autopilot and changes to the propulsion command ranging from nominal speed to full reverse. Using simulated predictions of the trajectories of the obstacles and ship, compliance with the Convention on the International Regulations for Preventing Collisions at Sea and collision hazards associated with each of the alternative control behaviors are evaluated on a finite prediction horizon, and the optimal control behavior is selected. Robustness to sensing error, predicted obstacle behavior, and environmental conditions can be ensured by evaluating multiple scenarios for each control behavior. The method is conceptually and computationally simple and yet quite versatile as it can account for the dynamics of the ship, the dynamics of the steering and propulsion system, forces due to wind and ocean current, and any number of obstacles. Simulations show that the method is effective and can manage complex scenarios with multiple dynamic obstacles and uncertainty associated with sensors and predictions.