Integrating crowd-behavior modeling into military simulation using game technology

Crowds of noncombatants play a large and increasingly recognized role in modern military operations and often create substantial difficulties for the combatant forces involved. However, realistic models of crowds are essentially absent from current military simulations. To address this problem, the authors are developing a crowd simulation capable of generating crowds of noncombatant civilians that exhibit a variety of realistic individual and group behaviors at differing levels of fidelity. The crowd simulation is interoperable with existing military simulations using a standard, distributed simulation architecture. Commercial game technology is used in the crowd simulation to model both urban terrain and the physical behaviors of the human characters that make up the crowd. The objective of this article is to present the design and development process of a simulation that integrates commercially available game technology with current military simulations to generate realistic and believable crowd behavior.

First steps towards modeling a multi-scale Earth system

Recent advances in computational geodynamics are applied to explore the link between Earth’s heat, its chemistry and its mechanical behavior. Computational thermal-mechanical solutions are now allowing us to understand Earth patterns by solving the basic physics of heat transfer. This approach is currently used to solve basic convection patterns of terrestrial planets. Applying the same methodology to smaller scales delivers promising similarities between observed and predicted structures which are often the site of mineral deposits. The new approach involves a fully coupled solution to the energy, momentum and continuity equations of the system at all scales, allowing the prediction of fractures, shear zones and other typical geological patterns out of a randomly perturbed initial state. The results of this approach are linking a global geodynamic mechanical framework over regional-scale mineral deposits down to the underlying micro-scale processes. Ongoing work includes the challenge of incorporating chemistry into the formulation.

How collaborative technology supports cognitive processes in collaborative process modeling : a capabilities-gains-outcome model

We examine which capabilities technologies provide to support collaborative process modeling. We develop a model that explains how technology capabilities impact cognitive group processes, and how they lead to improved modeling outcomes and positive technology beliefs. We test this model through a free simulation experiment of collaborative process modelers structured around a set of modeling tasks. With our study, we provide an understanding of the process of collaborative process modeling, and detail implications for research and guidelines for the practical design of collaborative process modeling.

Construct Redundancy in Process Modeling Grammars: Improving the Explanatory Power of Ontological Analysis

Conceptual modelling supports developers and users of information systems in areas of documentation, analysis or system redesign. The ongoing interest in the modelling of business processes has led to a variety of different grammars, raising the question of the quality of these grammars for modelling. An established way of evaluating the quality of a modelling grammar is by means of an ontological analysis, which can determine the extent to which grammars contain construct deficit, overload, excess or redundancy. While several studies have shown the relevance of most of these criteria, predictions about construct redundancy have yielded inconsistent results in the past, with some studies suggesting that redundancy may even be beneficial for modelling in practice. In this paper we seek to contribute to clarifying the concept of construct redundancy by introducing a revision to the ontological analysis method. Based on the concept of inheritance we propose an approach that distinguishes between specialized and distinct construct redundancy. We demonstrate the potential explanatory power of the revised method by reviewing and clarifying previous results found in the literature.

Deposition of hydrocarbon molecules on diamond (001) surfaces : atomic scale modeling

The impact induced chemisorption of hydrocarbon molecules (CH3 and CH2) on H-terminated diamond (001)-(2x1) surface was investigated by molecular dynamics simulation using the many-body Brenner potential. The deposition dynamics of the CH3 radical at impact energies of 0.1-50 eV per molecule was studied and the energy threshold for chemisorption was calculated. The impact-induced decomposition of hydrogen atoms and the dimer opening mechanism on the surface was investigated. Furthermore, the probability for dimer opening event induced by chemisorption of CH, was simulated by randomly varying the impact position as well as the orientation of the molecule relative to the surface. Finally, the energetic hydrocarbons were modeled, slowing down one after the other to simulate the initial fabrication of diamond-like carbon (DLC) films. The structure characteristic in synthesized films with different hydrogen flux was studied. Our results indicate that CH3, CH2 and H are highly reactive and important species in diamond growth. Especially, the fraction of C-atoms in the film having sp(3) hybridization will be enhanced in the presence of H atoms, which is in good agreement with experimental observations. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

The benefit of modeling jumps in realized volatility for risk prediction : evidence from Chinese mainland stocks

Recent literature has focused on realized volatility models to predict financial risk. This paper studies the benefit of explicitly modeling jumps in this class of models for value at risk (VaR) prediction. Several popular realized volatility models are compared in terms of their VaR forecasting performances through a Monte Carlo study and an analysis based on empirical data of eight Chinese stocks. The results suggest that careful modeling of jumps in realized volatility models can largely improve VaR prediction, especially for emerging markets where jumps play a stronger role than those in developed markets.

Computer modeling of diffusion in biological tissues

Molecular-level computer simulations of restricted water diffusion can be used to develop models for relating diffusion tensor imaging measurements of anisotropic tissue to microstructural tissue characteristics. The diffusion tensors resulting from these simulations can then be analyzed in terms of their relationship to the structural anisotropy of the model used. As the translational motion of water molecules is essentially random, their dynamics can be effectively simulated using computers. In addition to modeling water dynamics and water-tissue interactions, the simulation software of the present study was developed to automatically generate collagen fiber networks from user-defined parameters. This flexibility provides the opportunity for further investigations of the relationship between the diffusion tensor of water and morphologically different models representing different anisotropic tissues.

Business process variability modeling : A survey

It is common for organizations to maintain multiple variants of a given business process, such as multiple sales processes for different products or multiple bookkeeping processes for different countries. Conventional business process modeling languages do not explicitly support the representation of such families of process variants. This gap triggered significant research efforts over the past decade leading to an array of approaches to business process variability modeling. This survey examines existing approaches in this field based on a common set of criteria and illustrates their key concepts using a running example. The analysis shows that existing approaches are characterized by the fact that they extend a conventional process mod- eling language with constructs that make it able to capture customizable process models. A customizable process model represents a family of process variants in a way that each variant can be derived by adding or deleting fragments according to configuration parameters or according to a domain model. The survey puts into evidence an abundance of customizable process modeling languages, embodying a diverse set of con- structs. In contrast, there is comparatively little tool support for analyzing and constructing customizable process models, as well as a scarcity of empirical evaluations of languages in the field.

Modeling obligations with event-calculus

Time plays an important role in norms. In this paper we start from our previously proposed classification of obligations, and point out some shortcomings of Event Calculus (EC) to represent obligations. We proposed an extension of EC that avoids such shortcomings and we show how to use it to model the various types of obligations.

Modeling the cumulative genetic risk for multiple sclerosis from genome-wide association data

Background: Multiple sclerosis (MS) is the most common cause of chronic neurologic disability beginning in early to middle adult life. Results from recent genome-wide association studies (GWAS) have substantially lengthened the list of disease loci and provide convincing evidence supporting a multifactorial and polygenic model of inheritance. Nevertheless, the knowledge of MS genetics remains incomplete, with many risk alleles still to be revealed. Methods: We used a discovery GWAS dataset (8,844 samples, 2,124 cases and 6,720 controls) and a multi-step logistic regression protocol to identify novel genetic associations. The emerging genetic profile included 350 independent markers and was used to calculate and estimate the cumulative genetic risk in an independent validation dataset (3,606 samples). Analysis of covariance (ANCOVA) was implemented to compare clinical characteristics of individuals with various degrees of genetic risk. Gene ontology and pathway enrichment analysis was done using the DAVID functional annotation tool, the GO Tree Machine, and the Pathway-Express profiling tool. Results: In the discovery dataset, the median cumulative genetic risk (P-Hat) was 0.903 and 0.007 in the case and control groups, respectively, together with 79.9% classification sensitivity and 95.8% specificity. The identified profile shows a significant enrichment of genes involved in the immune response, cell adhesion, cell communication/ signaling, nervous system development, and neuronal signaling, including ionotropic glutamate receptors, which have been implicated in the pathological mechanism driving neurodegeneration. In the validation dataset, the median cumulative genetic risk was 0.59 and 0.32 in the case and control groups, respectively, with classification sensitivity 62.3% and specificity 75.9%. No differences in disease progression or T2-lesion volumes were observed among four levels of predicted genetic risk groups (high, medium, low, misclassified). On the other hand, a significant difference (F = 2.75, P = 0.04) was detected for age of disease onset between the affected misclassified as controls (mean = 36 years) and the other three groups (high, 33.5 years; medium, 33.4 years; low, 33.1 years). Conclusions: The results are consistent with the polygenic model of inheritance. The cumulative genetic risk established using currently available genome-wide association data provides important insights into disease heterogeneity and completeness of current knowledge in MS genetics.

Modeling electricity price events as point processes

Energy prices are highly volatile and often feature unexpected spikes. It is the aim of this paper to examine whether the occurrence of these extreme price events displays any regularities that can be captured using an econometric model. Here we treat these price events as point processes and apply Hawkes and Poisson autoregressive models to model the dynamics in the intensity of this process.We use load and meteorological information to model the time variation in the intensity of the process. The models are applied to data from the Australian wholesale electricity market, and a forecasting exercise illustrates both the usefulness of these models and their limitations when attempting to forecast the occurrence of extreme price events.

Understanding the actualization of affordances: A study in the process modeling context

The affordances concept describes the possibilities for goal-oriented action that technical objects offer to specified users. This notion has received growing attention from IS researchers. However, few studies have gone beyond contextualizing parts of the concept to a specific setting – the tip of the iceberg. In this research-in-progress paper, we report on our efforts to further develop the IS discipline’s understanding of affordances from informational objects. Specifically, we seek to extend extant theory on the origin and actualization of affordances. We develop a model that describes the process by which affordances are perceived and actualized and their dependence on information and actualization effort. We illustrate our emergent theory in the context of conceptual process models used by analysts for purposes of information systems analysis and design. We offer suggestions for operationalizing and testing this model empirically, and provide details about our design of a mixed-methods study currently in progress.

Modeling the co-precipitation of silica and calcium oxalate in sugar solutions

Solution chemistry plays a significant role in the rate and type of foulant formed on heated industrial surfaces. This paper describes the effect of sucrose, silica (SiO2), Ca2+ and Mg2+ ions, and trans-aconitic acid on the kinetics and solubility of SiO2 and calcium oxalate monohydrate (COM) in mixed salt solutions containing sucrose and refines models previously proposed. The developed SiO2 models show that sucrose and SiO2 concentrations are the main parameters that determine apparent order (n) and apparent rate of reaction (k) and SiO2 solubility over a 24 h period. The calcium oxalate solubility model shows that while increasing [Mg2+] increases COM solubility, the reverse is so with increasing sucrose concentrations. The role of solution species on COM crystal habit is discussed and the appearance of the uncommon (001) face is explained.

Understanding mild acid pretreatment of sugarcane bagasse through particle scale modeling

Sugarcane bagasse is an abundant and sustainable resource, generated as a by-product of sugarcane milling. The cellulosic material within bagasse can be broken down into glucose molecules and fermented to produce ethanol, making it a promising feedstock for biofuel production. Mild acid pretreatment hydrolyses the hemicellulosic component of biomass, thus allowing enzymes greater access to the cellulosic substrate during saccharification. A particle-scale mathematical model describing the mild acid pretreatment of sugarcane bagasse has been developed, using a volume averaged framework. Discrete population-balance equations are used to characterise the polymer degradation kinetics, and diffusive effects account for mass transport within the cell wall of the bagasse. As the fibrous material hydrolyses over time, variations in the porosity of the cell wall and the downstream effects on the reaction kinetics are accounted for using conservation of volume arguments. Non-dimensionalization of the model equations reduces the number of parameters in the system to a set of four dimensionless ratios that compare the timescales of different reaction and diffusion events. Theoretical yield curves are compared to macroscopic experimental observations from the literature and inferences are made as to constraints on these “unknown” parameters. These results enable connections to be made between experimental data and the underlying thermodynamics of acid pretreatment. Consequently, the results suggest that data-fitting techniques used to obtain kinetic parameters should be carefully applied, with prudent consideration given to the chemical and physiological processes being modeled.

Heat and mass transfer modeling of the osmo-convective drying of yacon roots (Smallanthus sonchifolius)

Osmotic treatments are often applied prior to convective drying of foods to impart sensory appeal aspects. During this process a multicomponent mass flow, composed mainly of water and osmotic agent, takes place. In this work, a heat and mass transfer model for the osmo-convective drying of yacon was developed and solved by the Finite Element Method using COMSOL Multiphysics®, considering a 2-D axisymmetric geometry and moisture dependent thermophysical properties. Yacon slices were osmotically dehydrated for 2 hours in a solution of sucralose and then dried in a tray dryer for 3 hours. The model was validated by experimental data of temperature, moisture content and sucralose uptake (R²> 0.90).