Efficiency comparison of Markov Chain Monte Carlo simulation with subset simulation (MCMC/ss) to standard Monte Carlo Simulation (sMC) for extreme event scenarios

Standard Monte Carlo (sMC) simulation models have been widely used in AEC industry research to address system uncertainties. Although the benefits of probabilistic simulation analyses over deterministic methods are well documented, the sMC simulation technique is quite sensitive to the probability distributions of the input variables. This phenomenon becomes highly pronounced when the region of interest within the joint probability distribution (a function of the input variables) is small. In such cases, the standard Monte Carlo approach is often impractical from a computational standpoint. In this paper, a comparative analysis of standard Monte Carlo simulation to Markov Chain Monte Carlo with subset simulation (MCMC/ss) is presented. The MCMC/ss technique constitutes a more complex simulation method (relative to sMC), wherein a structured sampling algorithm is employed in place of completely randomized sampling. Consequently, gains in computational efficiency can be made. The two simulation methods are compared via theoretical case studies.

Anthropogenic-based regional-scale factors most consistently explain plot-level exotic diversity in grasslands

Aim Evidence linking the accumulation of exotic species to the suppression of native diversity is equivocal, often relying on data from studies that have used different methods. Plot-level studies often attribute inverse relationships between native and exotic diversity to competition, but regional abiotic filters, including anthropogenic influences, can produce similar patterns.We seek to test these alternatives using identical scale-dependent sampling protocols in multiple grasslands on two continents. Location Thirty-two grassland sites in North America and Australia. Methods We use multiscale observational data, collected identically in grain and extent at each site, to test the association of local and regional factors with the plot-level richness and abundance of native and exotic plants. Sites captured environmental and anthropogenic gradients including land-use intensity, human population density, light and soil resources, climate and elevation. Site selection occurred independently of exotic diversity, meaning that the numbers of exotic species varied randomly thereby reducing potential biases if only highly invaded sites were chosen. Results Regional factors associated directly or indirectly with human activity had the strongest associations with plot-level diversity. These regional drivers had divergent effects: urban-based economic activity was associated with high exotic : native diversity ratios; climate- and landscape-based indicators of lower human population density were associated with low exotic : native ratios. Negative correlations between plot-level native and exotic diversity, a potential signature of competitive interactions, were not prevalent; this result did not change along gradients of productivity or heterogeneity. Main conclusion We show that plot-level diversity of native and exotic plants are more consistently associatedwith regional-scale factors relating to urbanization and climate suitability than measures indicative of competition. These findings clarify the long-standing difficulty in resolving drivers of exotic diversity using single-factor mechanisms, suggesting that multiple interacting anthropogenic-based processes best explain the accumulation of exotic diversity in modern landscapes.

Supramolecular selection in molecular and framework co-crystals

An ongoing challenge in chemistry and crystal engineering is the synthesis of functional materials with predictable structures and customisable properties. This may be achieved by crystallising mixtures of different compounds. Co-crystals formed through this method have predictable structures and their properties may be tuned by varying the ratio of the compounds in the crystallising solution. This thesis examines single crystals formed by the co-crystallisation of metal complexes that have similar structures but different physical or chemical properties. A variety of new compounds with interesting properties were prepared, characterised and their significance in the context of crystal engineering was explored.

Design-build contractor selection for public sustainable buildings

Design-build (DB) is regarded as an effective means of delivering high performance green buildings, and the selection of DB contractors is of critical importance. The objective of this study is to evaluate the selection of design-builders for public buildings seeking Leadership in Energy and Environmental Design (LEED) certification and compare the selection practices involved with those of non-LEED-seeking DB projects through a robust content analysis of 74 DB request for proposals (RFPs) for public DB projects. The results of the content analysis reveal that the level of LEED certification is the dominant means of conveying the sustainability requirements in RFPs for contractor selection, with the majority of RFPs (60%) including sustainability requirements as part of the contractor evaluation package. With the exception of contractors' past performance, there is no statistically significant difference in the importance weightings of selection criteria between LEED-seeking and non-LEED-seeking buildings, and DB owners tend to place more emphasis on innovative technical solutions rather than the past performance of DB contractors. Additionally, the research findings also indicate that owners of LEED-seeking building projects tend to provide less design decisions in RFPs in order to solicit innovative design alternatives from potential DB contractors. This study provides DB owners with a number of practical implications for selecting appropriate design-builders for green DB projects.

Mechanism‐based selection of a potent kallikrein‐related peptidase 7 inhibitor from a versatile library based on the sunflower trypsin inhibitor SFTI‐1

Potent and specific enzyme inhibition is a key goal in the development of therapeutic inhibitors targeting proteolytic activity. The backbone-cyclized peptide, Sunflower Trypsin Inhibitor (SFTI-1) affords a scaffold that can be engineered to achieve both these aims. SFTI-1's mechanism of inhibition is unusual in that it shows fast-on/slow-off kinetics driven by cleavage and religation of a scissile bond. This phenomenon was used to select a nanomolar inhibitor of kallikrein-related peptidase 7 (KLK7) from a versatile library of SFTI variants with diversity tailored to exploit distinctive surfaces present in the active site of serine proteases. Inhibitor selection was achieved through the use of size exclusion chromatography to separate protease/inhibitor complexes from unbound inhibitors followed by inhibitor identification according to molecular mass ascertained by mass spectrometry. This approach identified a single dominant inhibitor species with molecular weight of 1562.4 Da, which is consistent with the SFTI variant SFTI-WCTF. Once synthesized individually this inhibitor showed an IC50 of 173.9 ± 7.6 nM against chromogenic substrates and could block protein proteolysis. Molecular modeling analysis suggested that selection of SFTI-WCTF was driven by specific aromatic interactions and stabilized by an enhanced internal hydrogen bonding network. This approach provides a robust and rapid route to inhibitor selection and design.

A new plasmid display technology for the in vitro selection of functional phenotype–genotype linked proteins

Background: Display technologies which allow peptides or proteins to be physically associated with the encoding DNA are central to procedures which involve screening of protein libraries in vitro for new or altered function. Here we describe a new system designed specifically for the display of libraries of diverse, functional proteins which utilises the DNA binding protein nuclear factor κB (NF-κB) p50 to establish a phenotype–genotype link between the displayed protein and the encoding gene. Results: A range of model fusion proteins to either the amino- or carboxy-terminus of NF-κB p50 have been constructed and shown to retain the picomolar affinity and DNA specificity of wild-type NF-κB p50. Through use of an optimal combination of binding buffer and DNA target sequence, the half-life of p50–DNA complexes could be increased to over 47 h, enabling the competitive selection of a variety of protein–plasmid complexes with enrichment factors of up to 6000-fold per round. The p50-based plasmid display system was used to enrich a maltose binding protein complex to homogeneity in only three rounds from a binary mixture with a starting ratio of 1:108 and to enrich to near homogeneity a single functional protein from a phenotype–genotype linked Escherichia coli genomic library using in vitro functional selections. Conclusions: A new display technology is described which addresses the challenge of functional protein display. The results demonstrate that plasmid display is sufficiently sensitive to select a functional protein from large libraries and that it therefore represents a useful addition to the repertoire of display technologies.

Freedom to choose? Embryo selection, reproductive decision-making and the role of the state

Involving the biopsy of an eight-cell embryo, PGD has been hailed as a means of making reproductive decisions without having to face the heart-wrenching decision to abort an affected foetus. However, controversy around the kinds of traits for which testing can be done, and who has access to the technology, has led to questions about the way in which the technology is developing. Women who are allowed to access in vitro fertilisation (IVF) services can currently also access PGD in limited circumstances.

A new plasmid display technology for the in vitro selection of functional phenotype-genotype linked proteins

Background Display technologies which allow peptides or proteins to be physically associated with the encoding DNA are central to procedures which involve screening of protein libraries in vitro for new or altered function. Here we describe a new system designed specifically for the display of libraries of diverse, functional proteins which utilises the DNA binding protein nuclear factor κB (NF-κB) p50 to establish a phenotype-genotype link between the displayed protein and the encoding gene. Results A range of model fusion proteins to either the amino- or carboxy-terminus of NF-κB p50 have been constructed and shown to retain the picomolar affinity and DNA specificity of wild-type NF-κB p50. Through use of an optimal combination of binding buffer and DNA target sequence, the half-life of p50-DNA complexes could be increased to over 47 h, enabling the competitive selection of a variety of protein-plasmid complexes with enrichment factors of up to 6000-fold per round. The p50-based plasmid display system was used to enrich a maltose binding protein complex to homogeneity in only three rounds from a binary mixture with a starting ratio of 1:108 and to enrich to near homogeneity a single functional protein from a phenotype-genotype linked Escherichia coli genomic library using in vitro functional selections. Conclusions A new display technology is described which addresses the challenge of functional protein display. The results demonstrate that plasmid display is sufficiently sensitive to select a functional protein from large libraries and that it therefore represents a useful addition to the repertoire of display technologies.

Genome-wide SNP detection, validation, and development of an 8K SNP array for apple

As high-throughput genetic marker screening systems are essential for a range of genetics studies and plant breeding applications, the International RosBREED SNP Consortium (IRSC) has utilized the Illumina Infinium® II system to develop a medium- to high-throughput SNP screening tool for genome-wide evaluation of allelic variation in apple (Malus×domestica) breeding germplasm. For genome-wide SNP discovery, 27 apple cultivars were chosen to represent worldwide breeding germplasm and re-sequenced at low coverage with the Illumina Genome Analyzer II. Following alignment of these sequences to the whole genome sequence of 'Golden Delicious', SNPs were identified using SoapSNP. A total of 2,113,120 SNPs were detected, corresponding to one SNP to every 288 bp of the genome. The Illumina GoldenGate® assay was then used to validate a subset of 144 SNPs with a range of characteristics, using a set of 160 apple accessions. This validation assay enabled fine-tuning of the final subset of SNPs for the Illumina Infinium® II system. The set of stringent filtering criteria developed allowed choice of a set of SNPs that not only exhibited an even distribution across the apple genome and a range of minor allele frequencies to ensure utility across germplasm, but also were located in putative exonic regions to maximize genotyping success rate. A total of 7867 apple SNPs was established for the IRSC apple 8K SNP array v1, of which 5554 were polymorphic after evaluation in segregating families and a germplasm collection. This publicly available genomics resource will provide an unprecedented resolution of SNP haplotypes, which will enable marker-locus-trait association discovery, description of the genetic architecture of quantitative traits, investigation of genetic variation (neutral and functional), and genomic selection in apple.

Damping structure selection in nonlinear ship manoeuvring models

This paper presents the application of a statistical method for model structure selection of lift-drag and viscous damping components in ship manoeuvring models. The damping model is posed as a family of linear stochastic models, which is postulated based on previous work in the literature. Then a nested test of hypothesis problem is considered. The testing reduces to a recursive comparison of two competing models, for which optimal tests in the Neyman sense exist. The method yields a preferred model structure and its initial parameter estimates. Alternatively, the method can give a reduced set of likely models. Using simulated data we study how the selection method performs when there is both uncorrelated and correlated noise in the measurements. The first case is related to instrumentation noise, whereas the second case is related to spurious wave-induced motion often present during sea trials. We then consider the model structure selection of a modern high-speed trimaran ferry from full scale trial data.

An exploratory study into director selection : who do directors want on their boards and how do they select them?

This exploratory study into director selection involved in-depth interviews with Australian non-executive directors to identify what directors consider as important criteria when selecting new members and the approach taken to identify and select candidates. The findings indicate boards select new members based not only on their ability to contribute complementary skills and experience but also on a perceived compatibility with incumbent board members. While these two selection criteria are considered equal in importance, not all selection approaches are able to adequately assess both criteria. As a result many selections fail to realise their selection criteria.

Wheat breeding nurseries, target environments, and indirect selection for grain yield

Use of appropriate nursery environments will maximize gain from selection for yield of wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) in the target population of environments of a breeding program. The objective of this study was to investigate how well-irrigated (low-stress) nursery environments predict yield of lines in target environments that varied in degree of water limitation. Fifteen lines were sampled from the preliminary yield evaluation stage of the Queensland wheat breeding program and tested in 26 trials under on-farm conditions (Target Environments) across nine years (1985 to 1993) and also in 27 trials conducted at three research stations (Nursery Environments) in three years (1987 to 1989). The nursery environments were structured to impose different levels of water and nitrogen (N) limitation, whereas the target environments represented a random sample of on-farm conditions from the target population of environments. Indirect selection and pattern analysis methods were used to investigate selection for yield in the nursery environments and gain from selection in the target environments. Yield under low-stress nursery conditions was an effective predictor of yield under similar low-stress target environments (r = 0.89, P < 0.01). However, the value of the low-stress nursery as a predictor of yield in the water-limited target environments decreased with increasing water stress (moderate stress r = 0.53, P < 0.05, to r = 0.38, P > 0.05; severe stress r = -0.08, P > 0.05). Yield in the stress nurseries was a poor predictor of yield in the target environments. Until there is a clear understanding of the physiological-genetic basis of variation for adaptation of wheat to the water-limited environments in Queensland, yield improvement can best be achieved by selection for a combination of yield potential in an irrigated low-stress nursery and yield in on-farm trials that sample the range of water-limited environments of the target population of environments.

Pattern analysis of the diversity of morphological plant attributes and herbage yield in a world collection of white clover (Trifolium repens L.) germplasm characterised in a summer moisture stress environment of Australia

Information on the variation available for different plant attributes has enabled germplasm collections to be effectively utilised in plant breeding. A world sourced collection of white clover germplasm has been developed at the White Clover Resource Centre at Glen Innes, New South Wales. This collection of 439 accessions was characterised under field conditions as a preliminary study of the genotypic variation for morphological attributes; stolon density, stolon branching, number of nodes. number of rooted nodes, stolon thickness, internode length, leaf length, plant height and plant spread, together with seasonal herbage yield. Characterisation was conducted on different batches of germplasm (subsets of accessions taken from the complete collection) over a period of five years. Inclusion of two check cultivars, Haifa and Huia, in each batch enabled adjustment of the characterisation data for year effects and attribute-by-year interaction effects. The component of variance for seasonal herbage yield among batches was large relative to that for accessions. Accession-by-experiment and accession-by-season interactions for herbage yield were not detected. Accession mean repeatability for herbage yield across seasons was intermediate (0.453). The components of genotypic variance among accessions for all attributes, except plant height, were larger than their respective standard errors. The estimates of accession mean repeatability for the attributes ranged from low (0.277 for plant height) to intermediate (0.544 for internode length). Multivariate techniques of clustering and ordination were used to investigate the diversity present among the accessions in the collection. Both cluster analysis and principal component analysis suggested that seven groups of accessions existed. It was also proposed from the pattern analysis results that accessions from a group characterised by large leaves, tall plants and thick stolons could be crossed with accessions from a group that had above average stolon density and stolon branching. This material could produce breeding populations to be used in recurrent selection for the development of white clover cultivars for dryland summer moisture stress environments in Australia. The germplasm collection was also found to be deficient in genotypes with high stolon density, high number of branches high number of rooted nodes and large leaves. This warrants addition of new germplasm accessions possessing these characteristics to the present germplasm collection.

A Bayesian hurdle model for analysis of an insect resistance monitoring database

Motivated by the analysis of the Australian Grain Insect Resistance Database (AGIRD), we develop a Bayesian hurdle modelling approach to assess trends in strong resistance of stored grain insects to phosphine over time. The binary response variable from AGIRD indicating presence or absence of strong resistance is characterized by a majority of absence observations and the hurdle model is a two step approach that is useful when analyzing such a binary response dataset. The proposed hurdle model utilizes Bayesian classification trees to firstly identify covariates and covariate levels pertaining to possible presence or absence of strong resistance. Secondly, generalized additive models (GAMs) with spike and slab priors for variable selection are fitted to the subset of the dataset identified from the Bayesian classification tree indicating possibility of presence of strong resistance. From the GAM we assess trends, biosecurity issues and site specific variables influencing the presence of strong resistance using a variable selection approach. The proposed Bayesian hurdle model is compared to its frequentist counterpart, and also to a naive Bayesian approach which fits a GAM to the entire dataset. The Bayesian hurdle model has the benefit of providing a set of good trees for use in the first step and appears to provide enough flexibility to represent the influence of variables on strong resistance compared to the frequentist model, but also captures the subtle changes in the trend that are missed by the frequentist and naive Bayesian models.

Higher order universal one-way hash functions from the subset sum assumption

Universal One-Way Hash Functions (UOWHFs) may be used in place of collision-resistant functions in many public-key cryptographic applications. At Asiacrypt 2004, Hong, Preneel and Lee introduced the stronger security notion of higher order UOWHFs to allow construction of long-input UOWHFs using the Merkle-Damgård domain extender. However, they did not provide any provably secure constructions for higher order UOWHFs. We show that the subset sum hash function is a kth order Universal One-Way Hash Function (hashing n bits to m < n bits) under the Subset Sum assumption for k = O(log m). Therefore we strengthen a previous result of Impagliazzo and Naor, who showed that the subset sum hash function is a UOWHF under the Subset Sum assumption. We believe our result is of theoretical interest; as far as we are aware, it is the first example of a natural and computationally efficient UOWHF which is also a provably secure higher order UOWHF under the same well-known cryptographic assumption, whereas this assumption does not seem sufficient to prove its collision-resistance. A consequence of our result is that one can apply the Merkle-Damgård extender to the subset sum compression function with ‘extension factor’ k+1, while losing (at most) about k bits of UOWHF security relative to the UOWHF security of the compression function. The method also leads to a saving of up to m log(k+1) bits in key length relative to the Shoup XOR-Mask domain extender applied to the subset sum compression function.