Beyond point forecasting : evaluation of alternative prediction intervals for tourist arrivals

This paper evaluates the performances of prediction intervals generated from alternative time series models, in the context of tourism forecasting. The forecasting methods considered include the autoregressive (AR) model, the AR model using the bias-corrected bootstrap, seasonal ARIMA models, innovations state space models for exponential smoothing, and Harvey’s structural time series models. We use thirteen monthly time series for the number of tourist arrivals to Hong Kong and Australia. The mean coverage rates and widths of the alternative prediction intervals are evaluated in an empirical setting. It is found that all models produce satisfactory prediction intervals, except for the autoregressive model. In particular, those based on the biascorrected bootstrap perform best in general, providing tight intervals with accurate coverage rates, especially when the forecast horizon is long.

Electron transport across magnetic field in low-temperature plasmas : an alternative approach for obtaining evidence of Bohm mechanism

A comparative study involving both experimental and numerical investigations was made to resolve a long-standing problem of understanding electron conductivity mechanism across magnetic field in low-temperature plasmas. We have calculated the plasma parameters from experimentally obtained electric field distribution, and then made a 'back' comparison with the distributions of electron energy and plasma density obtained in the experiment. This approach significantly reduces an influence of the assumption about particular phenomenology of the electron conductivity in plasma. The results of the experiment and calculations made by this technique have showed that the classical conductivity is not capable of providing realistic total current and electron energy, whereas the phenomenological anomalous Bohm mobility has demonstrated a very good agreement with the experiment. These results provide an evidence in favor of the Bohm conductivity, thus making it possible to clarify this pressing long-living question about the main driving mechanism responsible for the electron transport in low-temperature plasmas.

Harvesting as an alternative to burning for managing Spinifex Grasslands in Australia

Sustainable harvesting of grasslands can buffer large scale wildfires and the harvested biomass can be used for various products. Spinifex (Triodia spp.) grasslands cover ≈30% of the Australian continent and form the dominant vegetation in the driest regions. Harvesting near settlements is being considered as a means to reduce the occurrence and intensity of wildfires and to source biomaterials for sustainable desert living. However, it is unknown if harvesting spinifex grasslands can be done sustainably without loss of biodiversity and ecosystem function. We examined the trajectory of plant regeneration of burned and harvested spinifex grassland, floristic diversity, nutrient concentrations in soil and plants, and seed germination in controlled ex situ conditions. After two to three years of burning or harvesting in dry or wet seasons, species richness, diversity, and concentrations of most nutrients in soil and leaves of regenerating spinifex plants were overall similar in burned and harvested plots. Germination tests showed that 20% of species require fire-related cues to trigger germination, indicating that fire is essential for the regeneration of some species. Further experimentation should evaluate these findings and explore if harvesting and intervention, such as sowing of fire-cued seeds, allow sustainable, localised harvesting of spinifex grasslands.

Willingness-to-pay for infrastructure investments for alternative fuel vehicles

This study investigates potential demand for infrastructure investment for alternative fuel vehicles by applying stated preference methods to a Japanese sample. The potential demand is estimated on the basis of how much people are willing to pay for alternative fuel vehicles under various refueling scenarios. Using the estimated parameters, the economic efficiency of establishing battery-exchange stations for electric vehicles is examined. The results indicate that infrastructural development of battery-exchange stations can be efficient when electric vehicle sales exceed 5.63% of all new vehicle sales. Further, we find a complementary relationship between the cruising ranges of alternative fuel vehicles and the infrastructure established.

Developments in mud filtration technology in the sugarcane industry

Dirt collected with sugarcane is processed and separated from the juice in the sugar factory by filtration equipment for return to the cane fields. New technologies over the past decade have enabled performance improvements to be obtained for this key unit operation. Filter mud product still contains a reasonable amount of sugar and the transportation of high moisture mud product has considerable cost. Australia’s traditional approach has been to use Rotary Vacuum Filters for processing and separating mud and other impurities from juice, but in recent years there has been interest in reducing sugar losses and transportation costs through utilisation of new technologies such as Horizontal Bed Filters, Vacuum Belt Press Filters, Membrane Press Filters and Centrifuges. Increasingly, these alternative equipment are being installed in new factories. This chapter describes the general principles of mud filtration theory and mud conditioning followed by a detailed description and review of the various filtration technologies and analysis of the relative merits associated with the equipment.

An alternative theory of legacy information systems

Organisational dependence upon IT continues to grow yet experiences of satisfaction vary widely. Problematic, aged IT is often cited as being a fundamental problem in this respect and this is commonly termed legacy information systems. However, in this paper the author offers an alternative, and arguably more comprehensive, theory of legacy information systems that accommodates multiple viewpoints and recognises its inherent dynamism. The paper suggests a theory of legacy information systems that comprises of the concepts of temporal effects, interpretations and characteristics. It is argued that legacy information systems are constructed of many ‘legacies’ that are handed down continuously, forming an amorphous set of sociotechnical interdependencies and relationships.

Best of breed IT strategy: an alternative to enterprise resource planning systems

Abstract - Enterprise Resource Planning (ERP) software has become the dominant strategic platform for supporting enterprise-wide business processes. However, single vendor ERP software systems have been criticised for not meeting specific organisation and industry requirements. An alternative approach ‘Best of Breed (BoB)’, integrates components of software from multiple standard package vendors, and in some cases custom components. The objective is to develop enterprise systems that are more closely aligned with the requirements of an organisation. Although this approach may not be common at present it is likely to grow in importance due to business needs and technology advances such as the componentisation of ERP software. A case study analysis of a BoB implementation at a global entertainment's company is used as a platform for the discussion of the issues associated with this strategy and a comparison is made with the single vendor ERP alternative. The analysis centres on the complexity of implementation, the differences in the levels of functionality and business fit and the maintenance requirements.

What is the apparent angle of a Kelvin ship wave pattern?

While the half-angle which encloses a Kelvin ship wave pattern is commonly accepted to be 19.47 degrees, recent observations and calculations for sufficiently fast-moving ships suggest that the apparent wake angle decreases with ship speed. One explanation for this decrease in angle relies on the assumption that a ship cannot generate wavelengths much greater than its hull length. An alternative interpretation is that the wave pattern that is observed in practice is defined by the location of the highest peaks; for wakes created by sufficiently fast-moving objects, these highest peaks no longer lie on the outermost divergent waves, resulting in a smaller apparent angle. In this paper, we focus on the problems of free surface flow past a single submerged point source and past a submerged source doublet. In the linear version of these problems, we measure the apparent wake angle formed by the highest peaks, and observe the following three regimes: a small Froude number pattern, in which the divergent waves are not visible; standard wave patterns for which the maximum peaks occur on the outermost divergent waves; and a third regime in which the highest peaks form a V-shape with an angle much less than the Kelvin angle. For nonlinear flows, we demonstrate that nonlinearity has the effect of increasing the apparent wake angle so that some highly nonlinear solutions have apparent wake angles that are greater than Kelvin's angle. For large Froude numbers, the effect on apparent wake angle can be more dramatic, with the possibility of strong nonlinearity shifting the wave pattern from the third regime to the second. We expect our nonlinear results will translate to other more complicated flow configurations, such as flow due to a steadily moving closed body such as a submarine.

Book Review : "The Media Gaze: Representations of Diversities in Canada by Augie Fleras". Vancouver and Toronto: UBC Press, 2011.

The Media Gaze effectively shatters the assumption that Canada, in all its political correctness, is a cultural mosaic free of discrimination and prejudice. While great strides have been made to reduce blatant racism and sexism in Canadian media, Fleras illustrates how discriminatory and oppressive discourses are still very present in news, television, and film.He brings to light the structural, institutional, and practice-oriented means by which the media is systemically biased toward privileging mainstream audiences while misrepresenting minority groups in the public eye...

Psip1/Ledgf p52 binds methylated histone H3K36 and splicing factors and contributes to the regulation of alternative splicing

Increasing evidence suggests that chromatin modifications have important roles in modulating constitutive or alternative splicing. Here we demonstrate that the PWWP domain of the chromatin-associated protein Psip1/Ledgf can specifically recognize tri-methylated H3K36 and that, like this histone modification, the Psip1 short (p52) isoform is enriched at active genes. We show that the p52, but not the long (p75), isoform of Psip1 co-localizes and interacts with Srsf1 and other proteins involved in mRNA processing. The level of H3K36me3 associated Srsf1 is reduced in Psip1 mutant cells and alternative splicing of specific genes is affected. Moreover, we show altered Srsf1 distribution around the alternatively spliced exons of these genes in Psip1 null cells. We propose that Psip1/p52, through its binding to both chromatin and splicing factors, might act to modulate splicing.

Characterization of 67 mitochondrial tRNA gene rearrangements in the Hymenoptera suggests that mitochondrial tRNA gene position is selectively neutral

We present entire sequences of two hymenopteran mitochondrial genomes and the major portion of three others. We combined these data with nine previously sequenced hymenopteran mitochondrial genomes. This allowed us to infer and analyze the evolution of the 67 mitochondrial gene rearrangements so far found in this order. All of these involve tRNA genes, whereas four also involve larger (protein-coding or ribosomal RNA) genes. We find that the vast majority of mitochondrial gene rearrangements are independently derived. A maximum of four of these rearrangements represent shared, derived organizations, whereas three are convergently derived. The remaining mitochondrial gene rearrangements represent new mitochondrial genome organizations. These data are consistent with the proposal that there are an enormous number of alternative mitochondrial genome organizations possible and that mitochondrial genome organization is, for the most part, selectively neutral. Nevertheless, some mitochondrial genes appear less mobile than others. Genes close to the noncoding region are generally more mobile but only marginally so. Some mitochondrial genes rearrange in a pattern consistent with the duplication/random loss model, but more mitochondrial genes move in a pattern inconsistent with this model. An increased rate of mitochondrial gene rearrangement is not tightly associated with the evolution of parasitism. Although parasitic lineages tend to have more mitochondrial gene rearrangements than nonparasitic lineages, there are exceptions (e.g., Orussus and Schlettererius). It is likely that only a small proportion of the total number of mitochondrial gene rearrangements that have occurred during the evolution of the Hymenoptera have been sampled in the present study.

A FimH inhibitor prevents acute bladder infection and treats chronic cystitis caused by multidrug-resistant uropathogenic Escherichia coli ST131

Background. Escherichia coli O25b:H4-ST131 represents a predominant clone of multidrug-resistant uropathogens currently circulating worldwide in hospitals and the community. Urinary tract infections (UTIs) caused by E. coli ST131 are typically associated with limited treatment options and are often recurrent. Methods. Using established mouse models of acute and chronic UTI, we mapped the pathogenic trajectory of the reference E. coli ST131 UTI isolate, strain EC958. Results. We demonstrated that E. coli EC958 can invade bladder epithelial cells and form intracellular bacterial communities early during acute UTI. Moreover, E. coli EC958 persisted in the bladder and established chronic UTI. Prophylactic antibiotic administration failed to prevent E. coli EC958–mediated UTI. However, 1 oral dose of a small-molecular-weight compound that inhibits FimH, the type 1 fimbriae adhesin, significantly reduced bacterial colonization of the bladder and prevented acute UTI. Treatment of chronically infected mice with the same FimH inhibitor lowered their bladder bacterial burden by >1000-fold. Conclusions. In this study, we provide novel insight into the pathogenic mechanisms used by the globally disseminated E. coli ST131 clone during acute and chronic UTI and establish the potential of FimH inhibitors as an alternative treatment against multidrug-resistant E. coli.