Public transport travel time variability definitions and monitoring

Public Transport Travel Time Variability (PTTV) is essential for understanding the deteriorations in the reliability of travel time, optimizing transit schedules and route choices. This paper establishes the key definitions of PTTV in which firstly include all buses, and secondly include only a single service from a bus route. The paper then analyzes the day-to-day distribution of public transport travel time by using Transit Signal Priority data. A comprehensive approach, using both parametric bootstrapping Kolmogorov-Smirnov test and Bayesian Information Creation technique is developed, recommends Lognormal distribution as the best descriptor of bus travel time on urban corridors. The probability density function of Lognormal distribution is finally used for calculating probability indicators of PTTV. The findings of this study are useful for both traffic managers and statisticians for planning and analyzing the transit systems.

The impact of a congestion charging exemption on the demand for new low‐emission vehicles

Numerous initiatives have been employed around the world in order to address rising greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions originating from the transport sector. These measures include: travel demand management (congestion‐charging), increased fuel taxes, alternative fuel subsidies and low‐emission vehicle (LEV) rebates. Incentivizing the purchase of LEVs has been one of the more prevalent approaches in attempting to tackle this global issue. LEVs, whilst having the advantage of lower emissions and, in some cases, more efficient fuel consumption, also bring the downsides of increased purchase cost, reduced convenience of vehicle fuelling, and operational uncertainty. To stimulate demand in the face of these challenges, various incentive‐based policies, such as toll exemptions, have been used by national and local governments to encourage the purchase of these types of vehicles. In order to address rising GHG emissions in Stockholm, and in line with the Swedish Government’s ambition to operate a fossil free fleet by 2030, a number of policies were implemented targeting the transport sector. Foremost amongst these was the combination of a congestion charge – initiated to discourage emissions‐intensive travel – and an exemption from this charge for some LEVs, established to encourage a transition towards a ‘green’ vehicle fleet. Although both policies shared the aim of reducing GHG emissions, the exemption for LEVs carried the risk of diminishing the effectiveness of the congestion charging scheme. As the number of vehicle owners choosing to transition to an eligible LEV increased, the congestion‐reduction effectiveness of the charging scheme weakened. In fact, policy makers quickly recognized this potential issue and consequently phased out the LEV exemption less than 18 months after its introduction (1). Several studies have investigated the demand for LEVs through stated‐preference (SP) surveys across multiple countries, including: Denmark (2), Germany (3, 4), UK (5), Canada (6), USA (7, 8) and Australia (9). Although each of these studies differed in approach, all involved SP surveys where differing characteristics between various types of vehicles, including LEVs, were presented to respondents and these respondents in turn made hypothetical decisions about which vehicle they would be most likely to purchase. Although these studies revealed a number of interesting findings in regards to the potential demand for LEVs, they relied on SP data. In contrast, this paper employs an approach where LEV choice is modelled by taking a retrospective view and by using revealed preference (RP) data. By examining the revealed preferences of vehicle owners in Stockholm, this study overcomes one of the principal limitations of SP data, namely that stated preferences may not in fact reflect individuals’ actual choices, such as when cost, time, and inconvenience factors are real rather than hypothetical. This paper’s RP approach involves modelling the characteristics of individuals who purchased new LEVs, whilst estimating the effect of the congestion charging exemption upon choice probabilities and subsequent aggregate demand. The paper contributes to the current literature by examining the effectiveness of a toll exemption under revealed preference conditions, and by assessing the total effect of the policy based on key indicators for policy makers, including: vehicle owner home location, commuting patterns, number of children, age, gender and income. Extended Abstract Submission for Kuhmo Nectar Conference 2014 2 The two main research questions motivating this study were:  Which individuals chose to purchase a new LEV in Stockholm in 2008?; and,  How did the congestion charging exemption affect the aggregate demand for new LEVs in Stockholm in 2008? In order to answer these research questions the analysis was split into two stages. Firstly, a multinomial logit (MNL) model was used to identify which demographic characteristics were most significantly related to the purchase of an LEV over a conventional vehicle. The three most significant variables were found to be: intra‐cordon residency (positive); commuting across the cordon (positive); and distance of residence from the cordon (negative). In order to estimate the effect of the exemption policy on vehicle purchase choice, the model included variables to control for geographic differences in preferences, based on the location of the vehicle owners’ homes and workplaces in relation to the congestion‐charging cordon boundary. These variables included one indicator representing commutes across the cordon and another indicator representing intra‐cordon residency. The effect of the exemption policy on the probability of purchasing LEVs was estimated in the second stage of the analysis by focusing on the groups of vehicle owners that were most likely to have been affected by the policy i.e. those commuting across the cordon boundary (in both directions). Given the inclusion of the indicator variable representing commutes across the cordon, it is assumed that the estimated coefficient of this variable captures the effect of the exemption policy on the utility of choosing to purchase an exempt LEV for these two groups of vehicle owners. The intra‐cordon residency indicator variable also controls for differences between the two groups, based upon direction of travel across the cordon boundary. A counter‐hypothesis to this assumption is that the coefficient of the variable representing commuting across the cordon boundary instead only captures geo‐demographic differences that lead to variations in LEV ownership across the different groups of vehicle owners in relation to the cordon boundary. In order to address this counter‐hypothesis, an additional analysis was performed on data from a city with a similar geodemographic pattern to Stockholm, Gothenburg ‐ Sweden’s second largest city. The results of this analysis provided evidence to support the argument that the coefficient of the variable representing commutes across the cordon was capturing the effect of the exemption policy. Based upon this framework, the predicted vehicle type shares were calculated using the estimated coefficients of the MNL model and compared with predicted vehicle type shares from a simulated scenario where the exemption policy was inactive. This simulated scenario was constructed by setting the coefficient for the variable representing commutes across the cordon boundary to zero for all observations to remove the utility benefit of the exemption policy. Overall, the procedure of this second stage of the analysis led to results showing that the exemption had a substantial effect upon the probability of purchasing and aggregate demand for exempt LEVs in Stockholm during 2008. By making use of unique evidence of revealed preferences of LEV owners, this study identifies the common characteristics of new LEV owners and estimates the effect of Stockholm's congestion charging exemption upon the demand for new LEVs during 2008. It was found that the variables that had the greatest effect upon the choice of purchasing an exempt LEV included intra‐cordon residency (positive), distance of home from the cordon (negative), and commuting across the cordon (positive). It was also determined that owners under the age of 30 years preferred non‐exempt LEVs (low CO2 LEVs), whilst those over the age of 30 years preferred electric vehicles. In terms of electric vehicles, it was apparent that those individuals living within the city had the highest propensity towards purchasing this vehicle type. A negative relationship between choosing an electric vehicle and the distance of an individuals’ residency from the cordon was also evident. Overall, the congestion charging exemption was found to have increased the share of exempt LEVs in Stockholm by 1.9%, with, as expected, a much stronger effect on those commuting across the boundary, with those living inside the cordon having a 13.1% increase, and those owners living outside the cordon having a 5.0% increase. This increase in demand corresponded to an additional 538 (+/‐ 93; 95% C.I.) new exempt LEVs purchased in Stockholm during 2008 (out of a total of 5 427; 9.9%). Policy makers can take note that an incentive‐based policy can increase the demand for LEVs and appears to be an appropriate approach to adopt when attempting to reduce transport emissions through encouraging a transition towards a ‘green’ vehicle fleet.

Benefit evaluation for information providing system by WebGIS in view of users' travel costs

This paper estimates the benefit of a plan for information providing system on road administration by WebGIS. The system will reduce travel costs of visitors from their business establishments to a road administration section of a city office. The authors had individual interviews with the visitors at the section of the Ichikawa City Office. Annual total sum of travel costs was estimated at 37 million yen at most. This paper also proposes formulas which expect the frequency of visits or the total sum of travel costs from the spatial distribution of the business establishments without questionnaires.

A disaggregate discrete choice model of transportation demand by elderly and disabled people in rural Virginia

This paper uses a correlated multinomial logit model and a Poisson regression model to measure the factors affecting demand for different types of transportation by elderly and disabled people in rural Virginia. The major results are: (a) A paratransit system providing door-to-door service is highly valued by transportation-handicapped people; (b) Taxis are probably a potential but inferior alternative even when subsidized; (c) Buses are a poor alternative, especially in rural areas where distances to bus stops may be long; (d) Making buses handicap-accessible would have a statistically significant but small effect on mode choice; (e) Demand is price inelastic; and (f) The total number of trips taken is insensitive to mode availability and characteristics. These results suggest that transportation-handicapped people take a limited number of trips. Those they do take are in some sense necessary (given the low elasticity with respect to mode price or availability). People will substitute away from relying upon others when appropriate transportation is available, at least to some degree. But such transportation needs to be flexible enough to meet the needs of the people involved.

Two dynamic discrete choice estimation problems and simulation method solutions

This paper considers two problems that frequently arise in dynamic discrete choice problems but have not received much attention with regard to simulation methods. The first problem is how to simulate unbiased simulators of probabilities conditional on past history. The second is simulating a discrete transition probability model when the underlying dependent variable is really continuous. Both methods work well relative to reasonable alternatives in the application discussed. However, in both cases, for this application, simpler methods also provide reasonably good results.

Fertility choice, land, and the Malthusian hypothesis

In a standard overlapping generations growth model, with a fixed amount of land and endogenous fertility, the competitive economy converges to a steady state with a zero population growth rate and positive consumption per capita. The Malthusian hypothesis is interpreted as a positive statement about the relationship between population growth and consumption per-capita, when production exhibits diminishing returns to labor and there is a fixed amount of land essential for production. Even when individuals care only about the number of their children and not about their children's welfare, the equilibrium is such that they eventually would choose to have only one child for each adult. Hence, if Malthus's "positive check' on population is the result of the response of optimizing agents to competitively determined prices, Malthus's pessimistic conjecture is not necessarily true, even though his other assumptions hold. -from Authors

Use your freedom of choice : reasons for choosing homeschool in Australia

In Australia, the decision to home educate is becoming increasingly popular (cf. Harding & Farrell, 2003; Townsend, 2012). In spite of its increasing popularity, the reasons home education is chosen by Australian families is under-researched (cf. Jackson & Allan, 2010). This paper reports on a case study that set out to explore the links between families that unschool and the parenting philosophies they follow. In- depth, qualitative interviews were conducted with a group of home education families in one of Australia’s most populated cities. Data were analysed using Critical Discourse Analysis. The analysis revealed that there were links between the parents’ beliefs about home education and their adherence to Attachment Parenting.

Arterial short-term travel time prediction using Bluetooth data

This project recognized lack of data analysis and travel time prediction on arterials as the main gap in the current literature. For this purpose it first investigated reliability of data gathered by Bluetooth technology as a new cost effective method for data collection on arterial roads. Then by considering the similarity among varieties of daily travel time on different arterial routes, created a SARIMA model to predict future travel time values. Based on this research outcome, the created model can be applied for online short term travel time prediction in future.

Taking travel journalism seriously : suggestions for scientific inquiry into a neglected genre

The practice of travel journalism is still largely neglected as a field of inquiry for communication and journalism scholars, despite the fact that news media are increasingly focussing on softer news. Lifestyle sections of newspapers, for example, have been growing in size over the past few decades, and given corresponding cutbacks in international news reporting, particularly travel journalism is now playing a growing role in the representation of ‘the Other’. While this need for research into the field has been identified before, very little actual investigation of travel journalism has been forthcoming. This paper reviews the current state of research by reviewing what studies have been conducted into the production, content and reception of travel journalism. It argues that while there does now exist a very small number of studies, these have often been conducted in isolation and with significant limitations, and much remains to be done to sufficiently explore this sub-field of journalism. By analysing what we do know about travel journalism, the paper suggests a number of possibilities in each area on how we can advance this knowledge. Above all, it contends that dated prejudices against the field have to be put to the side, and the practice of travel journalism needs to be taken seriously in order to do its growing importance justice.

Public preferences for biodiversity conservation and climate-change mitigation: A choice experiment using ecosystem services indicators

Potential conflicts exist between biodiversity conservation and climate-change mitigation as trade-offs in multiple-use land management. This study aims to evaluate public preferences for biodiversity conservation and climate-change mitigation policy considering respondents’ uncertainty on their choice. We conducted a choice experiment using land-use scenarios in the rural Kushiro watershed in northern Japan. The results showed that the public strongly wish to avoid the extinction of endangered species in preference to climate-change mitigation in the form of carbon sequestration by increasing the area of managed forest. Knowledge of the site and the respondents’ awareness of the personal benefits associated with supporting and regulating services had a positive effect on their preference for conservation plans. Thus, decision-makers should be careful about how they provide ecological information for informed choices concerning ecosystem services tradeoffs. Suggesting targets with explicit indicators will affect public preferences, as well as the willingness of the public to pay for such measures. Furthermore, the elicited-choice probabilities approach is useful for revealing the distribution of relative preferences for incomplete scenarios, thus verifying the effectiveness of indicators introduced in the experiment.

Modal choice between air and rail : a social efficiency benchmarking analysis that considers CO2 emissions

The problem of modal choice between rail and air arises as public awareness of carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions by the transportation sector rises. In this paper, we answer this question quantitatively by performing an efficiency benchmarking analysis that takes into account life-cycle CO2 emission due to transport service provision. The paper employs nonparametric efficiency estimation methods, namely a slacks-based inefficiency measure, as well as a more conventional directional distance function approach. We apply them to a panel data set for three major railway companies and the aviation sector in Japan for the period from 1999 to 2007. Results shows that, contrary to the common argument, air transport can still be more socially efficient than rail transport, even when the environmental load due to CO2 emission is incorporated. This is due to the aviation sector's extremely low user cost, measured in terms of in-vehicle time. In other words, aviation is a necessary transportation mode for those with a very high willingness to pay for their time.

The choice of spatial scales and spatial smoothness priors for various spatial patterns

Given the drawbacks for using geo-political areas in mapping outcomes unrelated to geo-politics, a compromise is to aggregate and analyse data at the grid level. This has the advantage of allowing spatial smoothing and modelling at a biologically or physically relevant scale. This article addresses two consequent issues: the choice of the spatial smoothness prior and the scale of the grid. Firstly, we describe several spatial smoothness priors applicable for grid data and discuss the contexts in which these priors can be employed based on different aims. Two such aims are considered, i.e., to identify regions with clustering and to model spatial dependence in the data. Secondly, the choice of the grid size is shown to depend largely on the spatial patterns. We present a guide on the selection of spatial scales and smoothness priors for various point patterns based on the two aims for spatial smoothing.

Influence of visible work activity on drivers’ speed choice at roadworks

Vehicle traffic through roadwork sites creates a hazardous work environment, with speed limit noncompliance a major contributor to the high risk and high severity of roadwork crashes. This paper examines responses to an online survey to better understand the factors underlying drivers’ work zone speed choices. Drivers’ stated speed choice was compared between two photographs of the same work zone section – one with workers and machinery present and another with no visible activity. Drivers also provided comments on any aspect of roadwork safety they thought was important. A paired t-test of stated speed choice revealed that significantly lower mean speeds were nominated when workers and machinery were clearly present and active (41.7 vs 53.5 km/h, p<0.01). Participants expressed concern about roadwork signage and reduced speed limits being left in place when there was no apparent work activity. Driver perceptions, and thus compliance, may be improved through technological and operational changes.

Fischer rats consume 20% ethanol in a long-term intermittent-access two-bottle-choice paradigm

The 20% ethanol intermittent-access (IAE) two-bottle-choice drinking procedure has been shown to produce high voluntary ethanol consumption in a number of rat strains. For this study, we applied this procedure to male Fischer (F344) rats, a strain previously reported to exhibit low levels of ethanol consumption. We also subjected these animals to a two-week ethanoldeprivation- period to see if they would exhibit an alcohol deprivation effect (ADE) signified by a transient increase in alcohol consumption following deprivation. Our data show a separation between high and low consuming animals within this strain, with high-consumers exhibiting an escalation in consumption. In contrast, Fischer rats did not show a significant separation between high and low consumers or any significant escalation in consumption, using the 20% ethanol continuous-access two-bottle-choice drinking protocol. Following the two-week deprivation period, animals in the high (but not the low) IAE group exhibited the transient increase in ethanol consumption and preference typically associated with an ADE. Together, the data suggest that the intermittent access protocol is a useful protocol for increasing ethanol consumption.

Model choice problems using approximate Bayesian computation with applications to pathogen transmission data sets

Analytically or computationally intractable likelihood functions can arise in complex statistical inferential problems making them inaccessible to standard Bayesian inferential methods. Approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) methods address such inferential problems by replacing direct likelihood evaluations with repeated sampling from the model. ABC methods have been predominantly applied to parameter estimation problems and less to model choice problems due to the added difficulty of handling multiple model spaces. The ABC algorithm proposed here addresses model choice problems by extending Fearnhead and Prangle (2012, Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, Series B 74, 1–28) where the posterior mean of the model parameters estimated through regression formed the summary statistics used in the discrepancy measure. An additional stepwise multinomial logistic regression is performed on the model indicator variable in the regression step and the estimated model probabilities are incorporated into the set of summary statistics for model choice purposes. A reversible jump Markov chain Monte Carlo step is also included in the algorithm to increase model diversity for thorough exploration of the model space. This algorithm was applied to a validating example to demonstrate the robustness of the algorithm across a wide range of true model probabilities. Its subsequent use in three pathogen transmission examples of varying complexity illustrates the utility of the algorithm in inferring preference of particular transmission models for the pathogens.