Beyond point forecasting : evaluation of alternative prediction intervals for tourist arrivals

This paper evaluates the performances of prediction intervals generated from alternative time series models, in the context of tourism forecasting. The forecasting methods considered include the autoregressive (AR) model, the AR model using the bias-corrected bootstrap, seasonal ARIMA models, innovations state space models for exponential smoothing, and Harvey’s structural time series models. We use thirteen monthly time series for the number of tourist arrivals to Hong Kong and Australia. The mean coverage rates and widths of the alternative prediction intervals are evaluated in an empirical setting. It is found that all models produce satisfactory prediction intervals, except for the autoregressive model. In particular, those based on the biascorrected bootstrap perform best in general, providing tight intervals with accurate coverage rates, especially when the forecast horizon is long.

Dynamic self-organization phenomena in complex ionized gas systems : new paradigms and technological aspects

An overview of dynamic self-organization phenomena in complex ionized gas systems, associated physical phenomena, and industrial applications is presented. The most recent experimental, theoretical, and modeling efforts to understand the growth mechanisms and dynamics of nano- and micron-sized particles, as well as the unique properties of the plasma-particle systems (colloidal, or complex plasmas) and the associated physical phenomena are reviewed and the major technological applications of micro- and nanoparticles are discussed. Until recently, such particles were considered mostly as a potential hazard for the microelectronic manufacturing and significant efforts were applied to remove them from the processing volume or suppress the gas-phase coagulation. Nowadays, fine clusters and particulates find numerous challenging applications in fundamental science as well as in nanotechnology and other leading high-tech industries.

Evaluating the competitiveness of the tourism industry in Cambodia : self-assessment from professionals

The annual tourism growth rate in Cambodia is among the highest in the world; however, tourist industry impact on Cambodian's economy is quite low. The purpose of our study is to analyse the strengths and weaknesses of the Cambodian tourism market so that a framework can be established to help the country's policy-makers formulate strategies to use its resources effectively to create sustainable tourism competitiveness. This study used the perspective of tourism experts in the industry and Ministry of Tourism in Cambodia, and academia in the tourism field to evaluate Cambodian tourism competitiveness relative to its major competitors in ASEAN (Association of Southeast Asian Nations) based on nine categories: endowed resources, created resources, supporting factors, destination management, situational conditions, demand condition, technology, openness and market performance indicators benchmarked from previous research. The results showed that Cambodia has a lot of endowed resources, but lacks supporting resources and factors to achieve tourism competitiveness.

A typology of technological enablers of website service failure prevention

An increasing range of services are now offered via online applications and e-commerce websites. However, problems with online services still occur at times, even for the best service providers due to the technical failures, informational failures, or lack of required website functionalities. Also, the widespread and increasing implementation of web services means that service failures are both more likely to occur, and more likely to have serious consequences. In this paper we first develop a digital service value chain framework based on existing service delivery models adapted for digital services. We then review current literature on service failure prevention, and provide a typology of technolo- gies and approaches that can be used to prevent failures of different types (functional, informational, system), that can occur at different stages in the web service delivery. This makes a contribution to theory by relating specific technologies and technological approaches to the point in the value chain framework where they will have the maximum impact. Our typology can also be used to guide the planning, justification and design of robust, reliable web services.

Looking beyond image and tourism : the role of flagship cultural projects in local arts development

State and local governments frequently look to flagship cultural projects to improve the city image and catalyze tourism but, in the process, often overlook their potential to foster local arts development. To better understand this role, the article examines if and how cultural institutions in Los Angeles and San Francisco attract and support arts-related activity. The analysis reveals that cultural flagships have mixed success in generating arts-based development and that their ability may be improved through attention to the local context, facility and institutional characteristics, and the approach of the sponsoring agencies. Such knowledge is useful for planners to enhance their revitalization efforts, particularly as the economic development potential of arts organizations and artists has become more apparent.

Productivity growth and biased technological change in Japanese airports

In this paper, the productivities of Japanese airports over the period of 1987-2005 are analyzed using the Malmquist index, and technological bias is investigated. During this period, airports on average became less efficient and experienced technological regress. Our results indicate that the traditional growth accounting method, which assumes Hicks neutral technological change, is not appropriate for analyzing changes in productivity for Japanese airports.

Changes in environmentally sensitive productivity and technological modernization in China's iron and steel industry in the 1990s

Technological modernization is widely believed to contribute positively both to economic development and to environmental and resource conservation, through improvements in productivity and strengthening of business competitiveness. However, this may not always be true, particularly in the short term, as it requires substantial investments and may impose financial burdens on firms undertaking such investments. This study empirically examines the effects of technological modernization in China's iron and steel industry in the 1990s on conventional economic productivity (CEP) and environmentally sensitive productivities (ESPs). We employ a directional distance function that can handle multiple inputs and outputs to compute relative production efficiencies. We apply these models to the data covering 27 iron and steel firms in China between 1990 and 1999-a period when the Chinese iron and steel industry modernized rapidly. We find that ESPs have continuously improved, even in the period when the CEP declined.

Productivity growth and biased technological change : Credit banks in Japan

This paper investigates the productivity change of Japanese credit banks with a Malmquist index and the input technological bias during 2000-2006. Our results indicate that the traditional growth accounting method, which assumes Hicks neutral technological change, is not appropriate for analyzing changes in productivity. Our analysis unambiguously shows that management of Shinkin banks has to be improved. These must be based on the improvement of technical efficiency and/or technological change, emulating the procedures of the best-practice banks, i.e., those banks with Malmquist productivity scores higher than one and simultaneously with technical efficiency and technological change higher than one.

Energy price-induced and exogenous technological change : Assessing the economic and environmental outcomes

In this paper, we distinguish between factor/output substitution and shifts in the production technology frontier. Our model includes the by-products of carbon dioxide and sulfur dioxide emissions where the function requires the simultaneous expansion of good outputs and reductions in emissions. We estimate a directional output distance function for 80 countries over the period 1971-2000 to measure the exogenous and oil price-induced technological change. On average, we find substantial oil price-induced technological progress at the world level when long-term oil prices are rising, although the growth rate is more volatile in developed countries than in developing countries. The results also show that developed countries experience higher exogenous technological progress in comparison with developing countries, and the gap between the two has increased during the period of our study.

Contradictions and the Appropriation of ERP Packages

Enterprise Resource Planning (ERP) software typically takes the form of a package that is licensed for use to those in a client organisation and is sold as being able to automate a wide range of processes within organisations. ERP packages have become an important feature of information and communications technology (ICT) infrastructures in organizations. However, a number of highly publicised failures have been associated with the ERP packages too. For example: Hershey, Aero Group and Snap-On have blamed the implementation of ERP packages for negative impacts upon earnings (Scott and Vessey 2000); Cadbury Schweppes implemented plans to fulfil 250 orders where normally they would fulfil 1000 due to the increased complexity and the need to re-train staff post implementation (August 1999) and FoxMeyer drug company’s implementation of an ERP package has been argued to have lead to bankruptcy proceedings resulting in litigation against SAP, the software vendor in question (Bicknell 1998). Some have even rejected a single vendor approach outright (Light et. al. 2001). ERP packages appear to work for some and not for others, they contain contradictions. Indeed, if we start from the position that technologies do not provide their own explanation, then we have to consider the direction of a technological trajectory and why it moves in one way rather than another (Bijker and Law 1994). In other words, ERP appropriation cannot be predetermined as a success, despite the persuasive attempts of vendors via their websites and other marketing channels. Moreover, just because ERP exists, we cannot presume that all will appropriate it in the same fashion, if at all. There is more to the diffusion of innovations than stages of adoption and a simple demarcation between adoption and rejection. The processes that are enacted in appropriation need to be conceptualised as a site of struggle, political and imbued with power (Hislop et. al. 2000; Howcroft and Light, 2006). ERP appropriation and rejection can therefore be seen as a paradoxical phenomenon. In this paper we examine these contradictions as a way to shed light on the presence and role of inconsistencies in ERP appropriation and rejection. We argue that much of the reasoning associated with ERP adoption is pro-innovation biased and that deterministic models of the diffusion of innovations such as Rogers (2003), do not adequately take account of contradictions in the process. Our argument is that a better theoretical understanding of these contradictions is necessary to underpin research and practice in this area. In the next section, we introduce our view of appropriation. Following this is an outline of the idea of contradiction, and the strategies employed to ‘cope’ with this. Then, we introduce a number of reasons for ERP adoption and identify their inherent contradictions using these perspectives. From this discussion, we draw a framework, which illustrates how the interpretive flexibility of reasons to adopt ERP packages leads to contradictions which fuel the enactment of appropriation and rejection.

Enterprise resource planning or enterprise resource plotting? Technological, organisational and inter-organisational aspects of enterprise resource planning package adoption and diffusion

Those in organisations tend to adopt new technologies as a way to improve their functions, reduce cost and attain best practices. Thus, technology promoters (or vendors) work along those lines in order to convince adopters to invest in those technologies and develop their own organisations profit in return. The possible resultant ‘conflicts of interest’ makes the study of reasons behind IT diffusion and adoption an interesting subject. In this paper we look at IT diffusion and adoption in terms of technology (system features), organisational aspects (firm level characteristics) and inter-organisational aspects (market dynamics) in order to see who might be the real beneficiaries of technology adoption. We use ERP packages as an example of an innovation that has been widely diffused and adopted for the last 10 years. We believe that our findings can be useful to those adopting ERP packages as it gives them a wider view of the situation.

Practices of literary tourism : an Australian case study

Purpose To present the results of tests for the development of literary trails for domestic visitors and tourists in Brisbane, Queensland, and to situate these findings in the context of recent state government policy changes in relation to culture, community engagement and the environment. Design Broadly cultural studies: the article analyses changes in international and national cultural tourism and Queensland based issues before presenting the research findings. Findings a gap in tourist and cultural development models exists for the implementation of a network of sustainable literary trails in Brisbane--this model can be extended to regions around the state to meet the demands of the new tourist. Limitations Queensland weather and Australian distance which will require a regional approach that networks with transport and community hubs. Practical implications the research has produced new software for the use of self-guided walks; the locations for two specific area trails; and the involvement of the State Library of Queensland as a “hub” for the trails. Substantial support exists for further development in advanced locative media and gaming. Social implications the research demonstrates the importance of developing a sense of place that relates to culture, literary history and community for tourists, as well as the potential for community engagement.

Experiential brand deployment : improving tourism brand evaluations

This article examines the use of an experiential branding process to help leisure resort businesses evaluate their brand. We integrate experiential marketing and the quality function development approach in combination to help understand the brand from the perspectives of both the consumer and firm, to help resort service businesses build their experience-oriented competitive brands. The value of this study is that it provides a real-world brand framework, especially those resorts with limited resources. Much is spoken about the influence of the brand and why it is important, but little is known about decisions related to developing a brand, especially for firms that have limited resources such as resort tourism operators. Tourism operators tend to be small-to-medium enterprises that do not necessarily have the capacity to do everything suggested. Therefore, we explore how firms assess the critical elements of their brand by using an integrated approach. For example, the study finds that, first, by using the quality function development method resorts can identify the most critical brand elements, and second, we identify the associated strengths of each brand element and confirm the identified resort’s critical brand elements for investment. Results show the potential strategies to create a more holistic set of experiences.

Geo-economics and considerations on the tourism industry with emphasis on historical cities tourism and ecotourism in Iran

Considering its many potentials in the tourism industry, Iran has constantly been among the leading countries seeking development in this industry. Iran is a country with many attractions in different tourism sections including cultural, urban, and monument tourism, and ancient places as well as ecotourism, and water tourism etc. for tourists. However, Iran has never economically prospered regarding its potentials in this industry as compared to its rivals. Thus, the main objective of this work is to list the main necessities of harnessing economic power and required instruments to fulfill this goal. In addition, the tourism industry is discussed as an important strategy for reaching this power, and the Iranian wildlife is introduced as an intact environment. It is also discussed that what economic benefits are obtained through using this tourism industry. It must be noted that the main emphasis of this work is on urban, monument tourism, ancient places, and ecotourism as a case study in two Iranian provinces. Finally, the required analyses are performed considering the affinity between these two sections and two provinces. Results indicated that while Iran having the highest percent of growth compared to the two other countries active in this area, however this advantage has not significantly affected the GDP in Iran, and Iran has not been able to improve its geo-economic capacity in this area.

Tourism advertisement management and effective tools in tourism industry

The definition of tourism “is the travel for recreational, leisure, family or business purposes, usually of a limited duration. Tourism is commonly associated with trans-national travel, but may also refer to travel to another location within the same country”. Tourism as an industry, in today’s modern language is a means of global communication between nations and travelers of all countries, introducing them to the various cultures and societies abroad, as well there history, ancient, historical sites, and languages. Hence, advertising overall has become a tool of necessity in this ever-growing global industry. Given that, tourism is a part of the infrastructure of any country’s economy the growth and development of tourism is of great importance. Advertising plays a vital and is a crucial tool in developing the countries tourism by attractively presenting the nations points-of-interests, historical and cultural. Advertising has a central role in expanding this industry, generating economic growth in this area, as well as creating direct and indirect employment, but most importantly a creative innovating competition in the national and international travel industry. Importantly, to achieve a successful tourist industry, the Travel Agencies and governmental offices of the Ministry’s of Tourism and Business must work hand-in-hand to attain these goals. This article shows the impact of the various media and advertising methods used in tourism, which assisted in identifying the correct tool for expanding the country’s industry of tourism. The results of this study illustrated that the appropriate tools for promotional strategies to attract domestic and foreign traveler’s, found to be the most effective were, handbook, internet advertising, TV, brochures, newspapers