Developing an epidemic forecasting model for Influenza A in Brisbane, Australia, based on climate and Hong Kong Influenza A surveillance data

Influenza is associated with substantial disease burden [ 1]. Development of a climate-based early warning system for in fluenza epidemics has been recommended given the signi fi - cant association between climate variability and influenza activity [2]. Brisbane is a subtropical city in Australia and offers free in fluenza vaccines to residents aged ≥65 years considering their high risks in developing life-threatening complications, especially for in fluenza A predominant seasons. Hong Kong is an international subtropical city in Eastern Asia and plays a crucial role in global infectious diseases transmission dynamics via the international air transportation network [3, 4]. We hypothesized that Hong Kong in fluenza surveillance data could provide a signal for in fluenza epidemics in Brisbane [ 4]. This study aims to develop an epidemic forecasting model for influenza A in Brisbane elders, by combining climate variability and Hong Kong in fluenza A surveillance data. Weekly numbers of laboratoryconfirmed influenza A positive isolates for people aged ≥65 years from 2004 to 2009 were obtained for Brisbane from Queensland Health, Australia, and for Hong Kong from Queen Mary Hospital (QMH). QMH is the largest public hospital located in Hong Kong Island, and in fluenza surveillance data from this hospital have been demonstrated to be representative for influenza circulation in the entirety of Hong Kong [ 5]. The Brisbane in fluenza A epidemics occurred during July –September, whereas the Hong Kong in fluenza A epidemics occurred during February –March and May –August.

Understanding the effects of complex seasonality on suburban daily transit ridership

Fluctuations in transit ridership pattern over the year have always concerned transport planners, operators and researchers. Predominantly, metrological elements have been specified to explain variability in ridership volume. However, the outcome of this research points to new direction to explain ridership fluctuation in Brisbane. It explored the relationship between daily bus ridership, seasonality and weather variables for a one-year period, 2012. Rather than segregating the entire year’s ridership into the four calendar seasons (summer, autumn, spring, and winter), this analysis distributed the yearly ridership into nine complex seasonality blocks. These represent calendar season, school/university (academic) period and their corresponding holidays, as well as other observant holidays such as Christmas. The dominance of complex seasonality over typical calendar season was established through analysis and using Multiple Linear Regression (MLR). This research identified a very strong association between complex seasonality and bus ridership. Furthermore, an expectation that Brisbane’s subtropical summer is unfavourable to transit usage was not supported by the findings of this study. A nil association of precipitation and temperature was observed in this region. Finally, this research developed a ridership estimation model, capable of predicting daily ridership within very limited error range. Following the application of this developed model, the estimated annual time series data of each suburb was analysed using Fourier Transformation to appreciate whether any cyclical effects remained, compared with the original data.

Patterned fen formation and development from the Great Sandy Region, south-east Queensland, Australia

The Great Sandy Region (incorporating Fraser Island and the Cooloola sand-mass), south-east Queensland, contains a significant area of Ramsar-listed coastal wetlands, including the globally important patterned fen complexes. These mires form an elaborate network of pools surrounded by vegetated peat ridges and are the only known subtropical, Southern Hemisphere examples, with wetlands of this type typically located in high northern latitudes. Sedimentological, palynological and charcoal analysis from the Wathumba and Moon Point complexes on Fraser Island indicate two periods of swamp formation (that may contain patterned fens), one commencing at 12 000 years ago (Moon Point) and the other ~4300 years ago (Wathumba). Wetland formation and development is thought to be related to a combination of biological and hydrological processes with the dominant peat-forming rush, Empodisma minus, being an important component of both patterned and non-patterned mires within the region. In contrast to Northern Hemisphere paludifying systems, the patterning appears to initiate at the start of wetland development or as part of an infilling process. The wetlands dominated by E. minus are highly resilient to disturbance, particularly burning and sea level alterations, and appear to form important refuge areas for amphibians, fish and birds (both non-migratory and migratory) over thousands of years.

Understanding past climate variation and environmental change for the future of an iconic landscape – K'gari Fraser Island, Queensland, Australia

The unique combination of landscapes and processes that are present and operate on Fraser Island (K'gari) create a dynamic setting that is capable of recording past environmental events, climate variations and former landscapes. Likewise, its geographic position makes Fraser Island sensitive to those events and processes. Based on optically stimulated luminescence dating, the records archived within the world's largest sand island span a period that has the potential to exceed 750 ka and contain specific records that are of extremely high resolution over the past 40,000 years. This is due to the geographic position of Fraser Island, which lies in the coastal subtropical region of Queensland Australia. Fraser Island is exposed to the open ocean currents of the Coral Sea on the east coast and the waters of Hervey Bay on its western margin and is positioned to receive moisture from the Indo-Australian monsoon, southeast trade winds and experiences occasional tropical and ex-tropical cyclones. We review literature that presents the current level of understanding of sea level change, ecological variation and environmental change on Fraser Island. The previous works illustrate the importance of Fraser Island and may link processes, environments and climates on Fraser Island with global records.

Connecting soundscape to landscape: Which acoustic index best describes landscape configuration?

Soundscape assessment has been proposed as a remote ecological monitoring tool for measuring biodiversity, but few studies have examined how soundscape patterns vary with landscape configuration and condition. The goal of our study was to examine a suite of published acoustic indices to determine whether they provide comparable results relative to varying levels of landscape fragmentation and ecological condition in nineteen forest sites in eastern Australia. Our comparison of six acoustic indices according to time of day revealed that two indices, the acoustic complexity and the bioacoustic index, presented a similar pattern that was linked to avian song intensity, but was not related to landscape and biodiversity attributes. The diversity indices, acoustic entropy and acoustic diversity, and the normalized difference soundscape index revealed high nighttime sound, as well as a dawn and dusk chorus. These indices appear to be sensitive to nocturnal biodiversity which is abundant at night in warm, subtropical environments. We argue that there is need to better understand temporal partitioning of the soundscape by specific taxonomic groups, and this should involve integrated research on amphibians, insects and birds during a 24 h cycle. The three indices that best connected the soundscape with landscape characteristics, ecological condition and bird species richness were acoustic entropy, acoustic evenness and the normalized difference soundscape index. This study has demonstrated that remote soundscape assessment can be implemented as an ecological monitoring tool in fragmented Australian forest landscapes. However, further investigation should be dedicated to refining and/or combining existing acoustic indices and also to determine if these indices are appropriate in other landscapes and for other survey purposes.

Large variations in the Holocene marine radiocarbon reservoir effect reflect ocean circulation and climatic changes

Accurate radiocarbon dating of marine samples requires knowledge of the marine radiocarbon reservoir effect. This effect for a particular site/region is generally assumed constant through time when calibrating marine 14C ages. However, recent studies have shown large temporal variations of several hundred to a couple of thousand years in this effect for a number of regions during the late Quaternary and Holocene. Here we report marine radiocarbon reservoir correction (ΔRΔR) for Heron Reef and Moreton Bay in southwestern (SW) Pacific for the last 8 ka derived from 14C analysis of 230Th-dated corals. Most of our ΔRΔR for the last ∼5.4 ka agree well with their modern value, but large ΔRΔR variability of ∼410 yr (from trough to peak) with possible decadal/centennial fluctuations is evident for the period ∼5.4–8 ka. The latter time interval also has significant variations with similar features in previously published ΔRΔR values for other sites in the Pacific, including southern Peru–northern Chile in southeastern (SE) Pacific, the South China Sea, Vanuatu and Papua New Guinea, with the largest magnitude of ∼920 yr from SE Pacific. The mechanisms for these large ΔRΔR variations across the Pacific during the mid-Holocene are complex processes involving (1) changes in the quantity and 14C content of upwelled waters in tropical east Pacific (TEP) (frequency and intensity of ocean upwelling in the TEP, and contribution of Subantarctic Mode Water to the upwelled waters, which is influenced by the intensity and position of southern westerly winds), and (2) variations in ocean circulation associated with climate change (La Niña/El Niño conditions, intensity of easterly trade winds, positions of the Intertropical Convergence Zone and the South Pacific Convergence Zone), which control the spreading of the older upwelled surface waters in the TEP to the western sites. Our results imply the need for employing temporal changes in ΔRΔR values, instead of constant (modern) values, for age calibration of Holocene marine samples not only for the SW Pacific sites but also for other tropical and subtropical sites in the Pacific.

The path less travelled: Vertical circulation spaces in apartment buildings in the subtropics

This paper presents data on residents’ use of common stairways and lifts (vertical circulation spaces) in multi-storey apartment buildings (MSABs) in Brisbane, Australia. Vertical movement is a defining aspect of multi-storey living and the energy consumed by lifts contributes significantly to the energy budget of the typical MSAB. The purpose is to investigate whether a reappraisal of vertical circulation design, through the lens of residents’ requirements, might contribute to energy reductions in this building type. Data was gathered on a theoretical sample of MSAB ranging from five decades old to very recent schemes. 90 residents were surveyed about their day-to-day experiences of circulation and access systems. The results showed that residents mainly chose to use the stairs for convenience and exercise. Building management regimes that limited residents’ access to collective spaces were the main impediment to discretionary stair use. Only two buildings did not have fully enclosed stairwells and these had the highest stair usage, suggesting that stair design, and building governance are two areas that might be worthy of attention. The more that circulation design is focussed on limiting access, the less opportunities there are for personal choice, incidental social interaction and casual surveillance of collective spaces. The more that design of vertical circulation spaces in MSAB meets residents’ needs the less likely they are to be reliant on continuous energy supply for normal functioning.

Specific IgE recognition of pollen allergens from subtropic grasses in patients from the subtropics

Background Pollens of subtropical grasses, Bahia (Paspalum notatum), Johnson (Sorghum halepense), and Bermuda (Cynodon dactylon), are common causes of respiratory allergies in subtropical regions worldwide. Objective To evaluate IgE cross-reactivity of grass pollen (GP) found in subtropical and temperate areas. Methods Case and control serum samples from 83 individuals from the subtropical region of Queensland were tested for IgE reactivity with GP extracts by enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay. A randomly sampled subset of 21 serum samples from patients with subtropical GP allergy were examined by ImmunoCAP and cross-inhibition assays. Results Fifty-four patients with allergic rhinitis and GP allergy had higher IgE reactivity with P notatum and C dactylon than with a mixture of 5 temperate GPs. For 90% of 21 GP allergic serum samples, P notatum, S halepense, or C dactylon specific IgE concentrations were higher than temperate GP specific IgE, and GP specific IgE had higher correlations of subtropical GP (r = 0.771-0.950) than temperate GP (r = 0.317-0.677). In most patients (71%-100%), IgE with P notatum, S halepense, or C dactylon GPs was inhibited better by subtropical GP than temperate GP. When the temperate GP mixture achieved 50% inhibition of IgE with subtropical GP, there was a 39- to 67-fold difference in concentrations giving 50% inhibition and significant differences in maximum inhibition for S halepense and P notatum GP relative to temperate GP. Conclusion Patients living in a subtropical region had species specific IgE recognition of subtropical GP. Most GP allergic patients in Queensland would benefit from allergen specific immunotherapy with a standardized content of subtropical GP allergens.

Regional and seasonal variation in airborne grass pollen levels between cities of Australia and New Zealand

Although grass pollen is widely regarded as the major outdoor aeroallergen source in Australia and New Zealand (NZ), no assemblage of airborne pollen data for the region has been previously compiled. Grass pollen count data collected at 14 urban sites in Australia and NZ over periods ranging from 1 to 17 years were acquired, assembled and compared, revealing considerable spatiotemporal variability. Although direct comparison between these data is problematic due to methodological differences between monitoring sites, the following patterns are apparent. Grass pollen seasons tended to have more than one peak from tropics to latitudes of 37°S and single peaks at sites south of this latitude. A longer grass pollen season was therefore found at sites below 37°S, driven by later seasonal end dates for grass growth and flowering. Daily pollen counts increased with latitude; subtropical regions had seasons of both high intensity and long duration. At higher latitude sites, the single springtime grass pollen peak is potentially due to a cooler growing season and a predominance of pollen from C3 grasses. The multiple peaks at lower latitude sites may be due to a warmer season and the predominance of pollen from C4 grasses. Prevalence and duration of seasonal allergies may reflect the differing pollen seasons across Australia and NZ. It must be emphasized that these findings are tentative due to limitations in the available data, reinforcing the need to implement standardized pollen-monitoring methods across Australasia. Furthermore, spatiotemporal differences in grass pollen counts indicate that local, current, standardized pollen monitoring would assist with the management of pollen allergen exposure for patients at risk of allergic rhinitis and asthma. © 2015 Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht

Purification of the major group 1 allergen from bahia grass pollen, Pas n 1

Background Group 1 grass pollen allergens are glycoproteins of the β-expansin family. They are a predominant component of pollen and are potent allergens with a high frequency of serum IgE reactivity in grass pollen-allergic patients. Bahia grass is distinct from temperate grasses and has a prolonged pollination period and wide distribution in warmer climates. Here we describe the purification of the group 1 pollen allergen, Pas n 1, from Bahia grass (Paspalum notatum), an important subtropical aeroallergen source. Methods Pas n 1 was purified from an aqueous Bahia grass pollen extract by ammonium sulphate precipitation, hydrophobic interaction and size exclusion chromatography, and assessed by one- and two-dimensional gel electrophoresis, immunoblotting and ELISA. Results Pas n 1 was purified to a single 29-kDa protein band containing two dominant isoforms detected by an allergen-specific monoclonal antibody and serum IgE of a Bahia grass pollen-allergic donor. The frequency of serum IgE reactivity with purified Pas n 1 in 51 Bahia grass pollen-allergic patients was 90.6%. Serum IgE reactivity with purified Pas n 1 was highly correlated with serum IgE reactivity with Bahia grass pollen extract and recombinant Pas n 1 (r = 0.821 and 0.913, respectively). Conclusions Pas n 1 is a major allergen reactive at high frequency with serum IgE of Bahia grass pollen-allergic patients. Purified natural Pas n 1 has utility for improved specific diagnosis and immunotherapy for Bahia grass pollen allergy.

Functional immunoglobulin E cross-reactivity between Pas n 1 of Bahia grass pollen and other group 1 grass pollen allergens

Background Grass pollens are major triggers of allergic rhinitis and asthma, but the immunological relationships between pollen allergens of the subtropical Bahia grass, Paspalum notatum, and temperate grasses are unresolved. Objective To assess serum IgE cross-reactivity between subtropical P. notatum and temperate Lolium perenne (Ryegrass) pollen allergens. Methods Serum IgE reactivities of grass pollen-allergic patients with P. notatum, L. perenne and Cynodon dactylon (Bermuda grass) pollen extracts and their respective purified group 1 allergens, Pas n 1, Lol p 1 and Cyn d 1, were compared by immunoblotting, ELISA and basophil activation. Results In a cohort of 51 patients from a temperate region, a high frequency of IgE reactivity with each grass pollen was detected, but reactivity with L. perenne pollen was substantially greater than with P. notatum and C. dactylon pollen. Similarly, serum IgE reactivity with Lol p 1 was greater than with Pas n 1 or Cyn d 1. For seven of eight sera studied in detail, asymmetric serum IgE cross-reactivity was observed; L. perenne pollen inhibited IgE reactivity with P. notatum pollen but not the converse, and IgE reactivity with Pas n 1 was inhibited by Lol p 1 but IgE reactivity with Lol p 1 was not inhibited by Pas n 1 or Cyn d 1. Importantly, P. notatum pollen and Pas n 1 activated basophils in grass pollen-allergic patients from a temperate region, although stimulation was greater by pollen of L. perenne than P. notatum or C. dactylon, and by Lol p 1 than Pas n 1 or Cyn d 1. In contrast, a cohort of 47 patients from a subtropical region showed similar IgE reactivity with P. notatum and L. perenne pollen, and reciprocal cross-inhibition of IgE reactivity between L. perenne and P. notatum. Conclusions Pollen allergens of the subtropical P. notatum, including Pas n 1, show clinically relevant IgE cross-reactivity with pollen allergens of L. perenne but also species-specific IgE reactivity.

IgE cross-reactivity between Pas n 1 of Bahia grass pollen and other group 1 grass pollen allergens

Background The subtropical Bahia grass (Paspalum notatum) is an important source of pollen allergens with an extended season of pollination and wide distribution in warmer climates. The immunological relationship between pollen allergens of Bahia grass and temperate grasses is unresolved. Methods Serum IgE reactivity of grass pollen-allergic patients with Bahia, Ryegrass and Bermuda grass pollen extracts and their purified group 1 allergens, Pas n 1, Lol p 1 and Cyn d 1, were compared by immunoblotting, ELISA, inhibition ELISA, basophil activation by flow cytometry and molecular modeling. Results Differences in antibody recognition of allergenic components between Bahia grass and Ryegrass pollen were observed by immunoblotting. Eight grass pollen-allergic patients from a temperate region showed greater serum IgE reactivity with Ryegrass pollen than Bahia grass by ELISA. For seven of these sera, Ryegrass pollen inhibited IgE reactivity with Bahia grass pollen but not the converse. For 51 sera from grass pollen-allergic patients in this temperate region, IgE reactivity with Lol p 1 was greater than Pas n 1 or Cyn d 1. IgE reactivity with Lol p 1 was not inhibited by Pas n 1 or Cyn d 1, but Pas n 1 IgE reactivity was inhibited by Lol p 1. Two group 1 grass pollen allergen-specific mAb distinguished between temperate and subtropical grass pollens. Basophil activation for three patients tested was greater by Ryegrass pollen than Bahia or Bermuda grass, and by Lol p 1 than Pas n 1 or Cyn d 1. In contrast, two patients from a subtropical region had higher serum IgE reactivity with Bahia grass pollen than Ryegrass and Bahia grass pollen inhibited IgE reactivity with Ryegrass. A structural model of Pas n 1 showed amino acids implicated in IgE epitopes of other group 1 allergens were juxtaposed on the surface. Conclusion Allergens from subtropical Bahia grass pollen, including Pas n 1, share antigenic determinants with temperate grass pollen allergens, but patients exhibit higher serum IgE reactivity to their locally predominant grass pollen. Basophil activation by Bahia grass pollen and Pas n 1 in patients from a temperate climate indicates clinically relevant cross-sensitization between temperate and subtropical grass pollens.

Molecular cloning, expression and immunological characterisation of Pas n 1, the major allergen of Bahia grass Paspalum notatum pollen

Bahia grass, Paspalum notatum, is a clinically important subtropical grass with a prolonged pollination season from spring to autumn. We aimed to clone and characterise the major Bahia grass pollen allergen, Pas n 1. Grass pollen-allergic patients presenting to a tertiary hospital allergy clinic were tested for IgE reactivity with Bahia grass pollen extract by skin prick testing, ImmunoCAP, ELISA and immunoblotting. Using primers deduced from the N-terminal peptide sequence of a group 1 allergen of Bahia grass pollen extract separated by two-dimensional gel electrophoresis, the complete Pas n 1 cDNA was obtained by rapid amplification of cDNA ends and cloned. Biological relevance of recombinant Pas n 1 expressed in Escherichia coli was assessed by serum IgE reactivity and basophil activation. Twenty-nine of 34 (85%) consecutive patients presenting with grass pollen allergy were skin prick test positive to Bahia grass pollen. The Pas n 1 cDNA has sequence homology with the β-expansin 1 glycoprotein family and is more closely related to the maize pollen group 1 allergen (85% identity) than to ryegrass Lol p 1 or Timothy grass Phl p 1 (64 and 66% identity, respectively). rPas n 1 reacted with serum IgE in 47 of 55 (85%) Bahia grass pollen-allergic patients, activated basophils and inhibited serum IgE reactivity with the 29 kDa band of Bahia grass pollen extract. In conclusion the cDNA for the major group 1 allergen of the subtropical Bahia grass pollen, Pas n 1, was identified and cloned. rPas n 1 is immunologically active and is a valuable reagent for diagnosis and specific immunotherapy of grass pollen allergy.

Temperature variation between neighboring days and mortality: a distributed lag non-linear analysis

Objectives To investigate whether a sudden temperature change between neighboring days has significant impact on mortality. Methods A Poisson generalized linear regression model combined with a distributed lag non-linear models was used to estimate the association of temperature change between neighboring days with mortality in a subtropical Chinese city during 2008–2012. Temperature change was calculated as the current day’s temperature minus the previous day’s temperature. Results A significant effect of temperature change between neighboring days on mortality was observed. Temperature increase was significantly associated with elevated mortality from non-accidental and cardiovascular diseases, while temperature decrease had a protective effect on non-accidental mortality and cardiovascular mortality. Males and people aged 65 years or older appeared to be more vulnerable to the impact of temperature change. Conclusions Temperature increase between neighboring days has a significant adverse impact on mortality. Further health mitigation strategies as a response to climate change should take into account temperature variation between neighboring days.

Increased risk of emergency hospital admissions for children with renal diseases during heatwaves in Brisbane, Australia

Background Heatwaves have a significant impact on population health including both morbidity and mortality. In this study we examined the association between heatwaves and emergency hospital admissions (EHAs) for renal diseases in children (aged 0–14 years) in Brisbane, Australia. Methods Daily data on EHAs for renal diseases in children and exposure to temperature and air pollution were obtained for Brisbane city from January 1, 1996 to December 31, 2005. A time-stratified case-crossover design was used to compare the risks for renal diseases between heatwave and non-heatwave periods. Results There were 1565 EHAs for renal diseases in children during the study period. Heatwaves exhibited a significant impact on EHAs for renal diseases in children after adjusting for confounding factors (odds ratio: 3.6; 95% confidence interval: 1.4–9.5). The risk estimates differed with lags and the use of different heatwave definitions. Conclusions There was a significant increase in EHAs for renal diseases in children during heatwaves in Brisbane, a subtropical city where people are well accustomed to warm weather. This finding may have significant implications for pediatric renal care, particularly in subtropical and tropical regions.