Complex Symbolic Sequence Encodings for Predictive Monitoring of Business Processes

This paper addresses the problem of predicting the outcome of an ongoing case of a business process based on event logs. In this setting, the outcome of a case may refer for example to the achievement of a performance objective or the fulfillment of a compliance rule upon completion of the case. Given a log consisting of traces of completed cases, given a trace of an ongoing case, and given two or more possible out- comes (e.g., a positive and a negative outcome), the paper addresses the problem of determining the most likely outcome for the case in question. Previous approaches to this problem are largely based on simple symbolic sequence classification, meaning that they extract features from traces seen as sequences of event labels, and use these features to construct a classifier for runtime prediction. In doing so, these approaches ignore the data payload associated to each event. This paper approaches the problem from a different angle by treating traces as complex symbolic sequences, that is, sequences of events each carrying a data payload. In this context, the paper outlines different feature encodings of complex symbolic sequences and compares their predictive accuracy on real-life business process event logs.

Bayesian refinement of association signals for 14 loci in 3 common diseases

To further investigate susceptibility loci identified by genome-wide association studies, we genotyped 5,500 SNPs across 14 associated regions in 8,000 samples from a control group and 3 diseases: type 2 diabetes (T2D), coronary artery disease (CAD) and Graves' disease. We defined, using Bayes theorem, credible sets of SNPs that were 95% likely, based on posterior probability, to contain the causal disease-associated SNPs. In 3 of the 14 regions, TCF7L2 (T2D), CTLA4 (Graves' disease) and CDKN2A-CDKN2B (T2D), much of the posterior probability rested on a single SNP, and, in 4 other regions (CDKN2A-CDKN2B (CAD) and CDKAL1, FTO and HHEX (T2D)), the 95% sets were small, thereby excluding most SNPs as potentially causal. Very few SNPs in our credible sets had annotated functions, illustrating the limitations in understanding the mechanisms underlying susceptibility to common diseases. Our results also show the value of more detailed mapping to target sequences for functional studies. © 2012 Nature America, Inc. All rights reserved.

Brief report: Intestinal dysbiosis in ankylosing spondylitis

Objective Ankylosing spondylitis (AS) is a common, highly heritable immune-mediated arthropathy that occurs in genetically susceptible individuals exposed to an unknown but likely ubiquitous environmental trigger. There is a close relationship between the gut and spondyloarthritis, as exemplified in patients with reactive arthritis, in whom a typically self-limiting arthropathy follows either a gastrointestinal or urogenital infection. Microbial involvement in AS has been suggested; however, no definitive link has been established. The aim of this study was to determine whether the gut in patients with AS carries a distinct microbial signature compared with that in the gut of healthy control subjects. Methods Microbial profiles for terminal ileum biopsy specimens obtained from patients with recent-onset tumor necrosis factor antagonist-naive AS and from healthy control subjects were generated using culture-independent 16S ribosomal RNA gene sequencing and analysis techniques. Results Our results showed that the terminal ileum microbial communities in patients with AS differ significantly (P < 0.001) from those in healthy control subjects, driven by a higher abundance of 5 families of bacteria (Lachnospiraceae [P = 0.001], Ruminococcaceae [P = 0.012], Rikenellaceae [P = 0.004], Porphyromonadaceae [P = 0.001], and Bacteroidaceae [P = 0.001]) and a decrease in the abundance of 2 families of bacteria (Veillonellaceae [P = 0.01] and Prevotellaceae [P = 0.004]). Conclusion We show evidence for a discrete microbial signature in the terminal ileum of patients with AS compared with healthy control subjects. The microbial composition was demonstrated to correlate with disease status, and greater differences were observed between disease groups than within disease groups. These results are consistent with the hypothesis that genes associated with AS act, at least in part, through effects on the gut microbiome.

The enigma of IgE+ B-cell memory in human subjects

Our understanding of the origin and fate of the IgE-switched B cell has been markedly improved by studies in mouse models. The immediate precursor of the IgE-switched B cell is either a relatively naive nonswitched B cell or a mature IgG-switched B cell. These 2 routes are referred to as the direct and indirect pathways, respectively. IgE responses derived from each pathway differ significantly, largely reflecting the difference in time spent in a germinal center and thus time for clonal expansion, somatic hypermutation, affinity maturation, and acquisition of a memory phenotype. The clinical and therapeutic implications for IgE responses in human subjects are still a matter of debate, largely because the immunization procedures used in the animal models are significantly different from classical atopic sensitization to allergens from pollen and mites. On the basis of the limited information available, it seems likely that these atopic IgE responses are characterized by a relatively low IgG/IgE ratio, low B-cell memory, and modest affinity maturation, which fits well with the direct switching pathway. It is still unresolved how the IgE response evolves to cover a wide epitope repertoire involving many epitopes per allergen, as well as many different allergens from a single allergen source. © 2013 American Academy of Allergy, Asthma & Immunology.

Automated categorisation of patent claims that reference human genome sequences

Debates on gene patents have necessitated the analysis of patents that disclose and reference human sequences. In this study, we built an automated classifier that assigns sequences to one of nine predefined categories according to their functional roles in patent claims by applying natural language processing and supervised learning techniques. To improve its correctness, we experimented with various feature mappings, resulting in the maximal accuracy of 79%.

Bayesian predictive modeling and comparison of oil samples

Statistical comparison of oil samples is an integral part of oil spill identification, which deals with the process of linking an oil spill with its source of origin. In current practice, a frequentist hypothesis test is often used to evaluate evidence in support of a match between a spill and a source sample. As frequentist tests are only able to evaluate evidence against a hypothesis but not in support of it, we argue that this leads to unsound statistical reasoning. Moreover, currently only verbal conclusions on a very coarse scale can be made about the match between two samples, whereas a finer quantitative assessment would often be preferred. To address these issues, we propose a Bayesian predictive approach for evaluating the similarity between the chemical compositions of two oil samples. We derive the underlying statistical model from some basic assumptions on modeling assays in analytical chemistry, and to further facilitate and improve numerical evaluations, we develop analytical expressions for the key elements of Bayesian inference for this model. The approach is illustrated with both simulated and real data and is shown to have appealing properties in comparison with both standard frequentist and Bayesian approaches

Methods for constructing uncertainty intervals for queries of Bayesian nets

In this paper the issue of finding uncertainty intervals for queries in a Bayesian Network is reconsidered. The investigation focuses on Bayesian Nets with discrete nodes and finite populations. An earlier asymptotic approach is compared with a simulation-based approach, together with further alternatives, one based on a single sample of the Bayesian Net of a particular finite population size, and another which uses expected population sizes together with exact probabilities. We conclude that a query of a Bayesian Net should be expressed as a probability embedded in an uncertainty interval. Based on an investigation of two Bayesian Net structures, the preferred method is the simulation method. However, both the single sample method and the expected sample size methods may be useful and are simpler to compute. Any method at all is more useful than none, when assessing a Bayesian Net under development, or when drawing conclusions from an ‘expert’ system.

Secondary structure element alignment kernel method for prediction of protein structural classes

In this paper, we aim at predicting protein structural classes for low-homology data sets based on predicted secondary structures. We propose a new and simple kernel method, named as SSEAKSVM, to predict protein structural classes. The secondary structures of all protein sequences are obtained by using the tool PSIPRED and then a linear kernel on the basis of secondary structure element alignment scores is constructed for training a support vector machine classifier without parameter adjusting. Our method SSEAKSVM was evaluated on two low-homology datasets 25PDB and 1189 with sequence homology being 25% and 40%, respectively. The jackknife test is used to test and compare our method with other existing methods. The overall accuracies on these two data sets are 86.3% and 84.5%, respectively, which are higher than those obtained by other existing methods. Especially, our method achieves higher accuracies (88.1% and 88.5%) for differentiating the α + β class and the α/β class compared to other methods. This suggests that our method is valuable to predict protein structural classes particularly for low-homology protein sequences. The source code of the method in this paper can be downloaded at http://math.xtu.edu.cn/myphp/math/research/source/SSEAK_source_code.rar.

Image processing and classification procedure for the analysis of Australian frog vocalisations

Frog species have been declining worldwide at unprecedented rates in the past decades. There are many reasons for this decline including pollution, habitat loss, and invasive species [1]. To preserve, protect, and restore frog biodiversity, it is important to monitor and assess frog species. In this paper, a novel method using image processing techniques for analyzing Australian frog vocalisations is proposed. An FFT is applied to audio data to produce a spectrogram. Then, acoustic events are detected and isolated into corresponding segments through image processing techniques applied to the spectrogram. For each segment, spectral peak tracks are extracted with selected seeds and a region growing technique is utilised to obtain the contour of each frog vocalisation. Based on spectral peak tracks and the contour of each frog vocalisation, six feature sets are extracted. Principal component analysis reduces each feature set down to six principal components which are tested for classification performance with a k-nearest neighbor classifier. This experiment tests the proposed method of classification on fourteen frog species which are geographically well distributed throughout Queensland, Australia. The experimental results show that the best average classification accuracy for the fourteen frog species can be up to 87%.

Acoustic classification of Australian anurans using syllable features

Acoustic classification of anurans (frogs) has received increasing attention for its promising application in biological and environment studies. In this study, a novel feature extraction method for frog call classification is presented based on the analysis of spectrograms. The frog calls are first automatically segmented into syllables. Then, spectral peak tracks are extracted to separate desired signal (frog calls) from background noise. The spectral peak tracks are used to extract various syllable features, including: syllable duration, dominant frequency, oscillation rate, frequency modulation, and energy modulation. Finally, a k-nearest neighbor classifier is used for classifying frog calls based on the results of principal component analysis. The experiment results show that syllable features can achieve an average classification accuracy of 90.5% which outperforms Mel-frequency cepstral coefficients features (79.0%).

Acoustic feature extraction using perceptual wavelet packet decomposition for frog call classification

Frog protection has become increasingly essential due to the rapid decline of its biodiversity. Therefore, it is valuable to develop new methods for studying this biodiversity. In this paper, a novel feature extraction method is proposed based on perceptual wavelet packet decomposition for classifying frog calls in noisy environments. Pre-processing and syllable segmentation are first applied to the frog call. Then, a spectral peak track is extracted from each syllable if possible. Track duration, dominant frequency and oscillation rate are directly extracted from the track. With k-means clustering algorithm, the calculated dominant frequency of all frog species is clustered into k parts, which produce a frequency scale for wavelet packet decomposition. Based on the adaptive frequency scale, wavelet packet decomposition is applied to the frog calls. Using the wavelet packet decomposition coefficients, a new feature set named perceptual wavelet packet decomposition sub-band cepstral coefficients is extracted. Finally, a k-nearest neighbour (k-NN) classifier is used for the classification. The experiment results show that the proposed features can achieve an average classification accuracy of 97.45% which outperforms syllable features (86.87%) and Mel-frequency cepstral coefficients (MFCCs) feature (90.80%).

Application of image processing techniques for frog call classification

Frogs have received increasing attention due to their effectiveness for indicating the environment change. Therefore, it is important to monitor and assess frogs. With the development of sensor techniques, large volumes of audio data (including frog calls) have been collected and need to be analysed. After transforming the audio data into its spectrogram representation using short-time Fourier transform, the visual inspection of this representation motivates us to use image processing techniques for analysing audio data. Applying acoustic event detection (AED) method to spectrograms, acoustic events are firstly detected from which ridges are extracted. Three feature sets, Mel-frequency cepstral coefficients (MFCCs), AED feature set and ridge feature set, are then used for frog call classification with a support vector machine classifier. Fifteen frog species widely spread in Queensland, Australia, are selected to evaluate the proposed method. The experimental results show that ridge feature set can achieve an average classification accuracy of 74.73% which outperforms the MFCCs (38.99%) and AED feature set (67.78%).

Complex symbolic sequence clustering and multiple classifiers for predictive process monitoring

This paper addresses the following predictive business process monitoring problem: Given the execution trace of an ongoing case,and given a set of traces of historical (completed) cases, predict the most likely outcome of the ongoing case. In this context, a trace refers to a sequence of events with corresponding payloads, where a payload consists of a set of attribute-value pairs. Meanwhile, an outcome refers to a label associated to completed cases, like, for example, a label indicating that a given case completed “on time” (with respect to a given desired duration) or “late”, or a label indicating that a given case led to a customer complaint or not. The paper tackles this problem via a two-phased approach. In the first phase, prefixes of historical cases are encoded using complex symbolic sequences and clustered. In the second phase, a classifier is built for each of the clusters. To predict the outcome of an ongoing case at runtime given its (uncompleted) trace, we select the closest cluster(s) to the trace in question and apply the respective classifier(s), taking into account the Euclidean distance of the trace from the center of the clusters. We consider two families of clustering algorithms – hierarchical clustering and k-medoids – and use random forests for classification. The approach was evaluated on four real-life datasets.

Automatic ICD-10 classification of cancers from free-text death certificates

Objective Death certificates provide an invaluable source for cancer mortality statistics; however, this value can only be realised if accurate, quantitative data can be extracted from certificates – an aim hampered by both the volume and variable nature of certificates written in natural language. This paper proposes an automatic classification system for identifying cancer related causes of death from death certificates. Methods Detailed features, including terms, n-grams and SNOMED CT concepts were extracted from a collection of 447,336 death certificates. These features were used to train Support Vector Machine classifiers (one classifier for each cancer type). The classifiers were deployed in a cascaded architecture: the first level identified the presence of cancer (i.e., binary cancer/nocancer) and the second level identified the type of cancer (according to the ICD-10 classification system). A held-out test set was used to evaluate the effectiveness of the classifiers according to precision, recall and F-measure. In addition, detailed feature analysis was performed to reveal the characteristics of a successful cancer classification model. Results The system was highly effective at identifying cancer as the underlying cause of death (F-measure 0.94). The system was also effective at determining the type of cancer for common cancers (F-measure 0.7). Rare cancers, for which there was little training data, were difficult to classify accurately (F-measure 0.12). Factors influencing performance were the amount of training data and certain ambiguous cancers (e.g., those in the stomach region). The feature analysis revealed a combination of features were important for cancer type classification, with SNOMED CT concept and oncology specific morphology features proving the most valuable. Conclusion The system proposed in this study provides automatic identification and characterisation of cancers from large collections of free-text death certificates. This allows organisations such as Cancer Registries to monitor and report on cancer mortality in a timely and accurate manner. In addition, the methods and findings are generally applicable beyond cancer classification and to other sources of medical text besides death certificates.

Genetic relationship between five psychiatric disorders estimated from genome-wide SNPs

Most psychiatric disorders are moderately to highly heritable. The degree to which genetic variation is unique to individual disorders or shared across disorders is unclear. To examine shared genetic etiology, we use genome-wide genotype data from the Psychiatric Genomics Consortium (PGC) for cases and controls in schizophrenia, bipolar disorder, major depressive disorder, autism spectrum disorders (ASD) and attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder (ADHD). We apply univariate and bivariate methods for the estimation of genetic variation within and covariation between disorders. SNPs explained 17-29% of the variance in liability. The genetic correlation calculated using common SNPs was high between schizophrenia and bipolar disorder (0.68 +/- 0.04 s.e.), moderate between schizophrenia and major depressive disorder (0.43 +/- 0.06 s.e.), bipolar disorder and major depressive disorder (0.47 +/- 0.06 s.e.), and ADHD and major depressive disorder (0.32 +/- 0.07 s.e.), low between schizophrenia and ASD (0.16 +/- 0.06 s.e.) and non-significant for other pairs of disorders as well as between psychiatric disorders and the negative control of Crohn's disease. This empirical evidence of shared genetic etiology for psychiatric disorders can inform nosology and encourages the investigation of common pathophysiologies for related disorders.