Inferring lung cancer risk factor patterns through joint Bayesian spatio-temporal analysis

Background: Preventing risk factor exposure is vital to reduce the high burden from lung cancer. The leading risk factor for developing lung cancer is tobacco smoking. In Australia, despite apparent success in reducing smoking prevalence, there is limited information on small area patterns and small area temporal trends. We sought to estimate spatio-temporal patterns for lung cancer risk factors using routinely collected population-based cancer data. Methods: The analysis used a Bayesian shared component spatio-temporal model, with male and female lung cancer included separately. The shared component reflected exposure to lung cancer risk factors, and was modelled over 477 statistical local areas (SLAs) and 15 years in Queensland, Australia. Analyses were also run adjusting for area-level socioeconomic disadvantage, Indigenous population composition, or remoteness. Results: Strong spatial patterns were observed in the underlying risk factor exposure for both males (median Relative Risk (RR) across SLAs compared to the Queensland average ranged from 0.48-2.00) and females (median RR range across SLAs 0.53-1.80), with high exposure observed in many remote areas. Strong temporal trends were also observed. Males showed a decrease in the underlying risk across time, while females showed an increase followed by a decrease in the final two years. These patterns were largely consistent across each SLA. The high underlying risk estimates observed among disadvantaged, remote and indigenous areas decreased after adjustment, particularly among females. Conclusion: The modelled underlying exposure appeared to reflect previous smoking prevalence, with a lag period of around 30 years, consistent with the time taken to develop lung cancer. The consistent temporal trends in lung cancer risk factors across small areas support the hypothesis that past interventions have been equally effective across the state. However, this also means that spatial inequalities have remained unaddressed, highlighting the potential for future interventions, particularly among remote areas.

Unlearning leadership in the conceptual age

"We live in times in which unlearning has become as important as learning. Dan Pink has called these times the Conceptual Age,i to distinguish them from the Knowledge/Information Age in which many of us were born and educated. Before the current Conceptual Age, the core business of learning was the routine accessing of information to solve routine problems, so there was real value in retaining and reusing the templates taught to us at schools and universities. What is different about the Conceptual Age is that it is characterised by new cultural forms and modes of consumption that require us to unlearn our Knowledge/Information Age habits to live well in our less predictable social world. The ‘correct’ way to write, for example, is no longer ‘correct’ if communicating by hypertext rather than by essay or letter. And who would bother with an essay or a letter or indeed a pen these days? Whether or not we agree that the Conceptual Age, amounts to the first real generation gap since rock and roll, as Ken Robinson claims,ii it certainly makes unique demands of educators, just as it makes unique demands of the systems, strategies and sustainability of organisations. Foremost among these demands, according to innovation analyst Charlie Leadbeater,iii is to unlearn the idea that we are becoming a more knowledgeable society with each new generation. If knowing means being intimately familiar with the knowledge embedded in the technologies we use in our daily lives, then, Leadbeater says, we have never been more ignorant.iv He reminds us that our great grandparents had an intimate knowledge of the technologies around them, and had no problem with getting the butter churn to work or preventing the lamp from smoking. Few of us would know what to do if our mobile phones stopped functioning, just as few of us know what is ‘underneath’ or ‘behind’ the keys of our laptops. Nor, indeed, do many of us want to know. But this means that we are all very quickly reduced to the quill and the lamp if we lose our power sources or if our machines cease to function. This makes us much more vulnerable – as well as much more ignorant in relative terms – than our predecessors."

Environmental contributions to childhood cancers

Recent increases in incidence of childhood cancers cannot be explained by genetic factors. Identifying the environmental risk factors that may explain increases in cancer incidence is an important step to reduce the overall burden of disease. The risk factors for which the most evidence exists include ionising radiation, ultraviolet radiation and chemicals such as benzene and pesticides, biological agents as well as parental smoking and parental substance use. Regarding the link between exposure to non-ionising radiation and development of cancer, the evidence was limited. Maternal vitamin supplementation may reduce the risk of cancer in offspring. Environmental exposures encountered during development and early childhood may be even more important contributors to the risk of cancer than exposures in adulthood and the early developmental period presents an important opportunity for cancer prevention.

Telomere length in circulating leukocytes is associated with lung function and disease

Several clinical studies suggest the involvement of premature ageing processes in chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD). Using an epidemiological approach, we studied whether accelerated ageing indicated by telomere length, a marker of biological age, is associated with COPD and asthma, and whether intrinsic age-related processes contribute to the interindividual variability of lung function. Our meta-analysis of 14 studies included 934 COPD cases with 15 846 controls defined according to the Global Lungs Initiative (GLI) criteria (or 1189 COPD cases according to the Global Initiative for Chronic Obstructive Lung Disease (GOLD) criteria), 2834 asthma cases with 28 195 controls, and spirometric parameters (forced expiratory volume in 1 s (FEV1), forced vital capacity (FVC) and FEV1/FVC) of 12 595 individuals. Associations with telomere length were tested by linear regression, adjusting for age, sex and smoking status. We observed negative associations between telomere length and asthma (β= −0.0452, p=0.024) as well as COPD (β= −0.0982, p=0.001), with associations being stronger and more significant when using GLI criteria than those of GOLD. In both diseases, effects were stronger in females than males. The investigation of spirometric indices showed positive associations between telomere length and FEV1 (p=1.07×10−7), FVC (p=2.07×10−5), and FEV1/FVC (p=5.27×10−3). The effect was somewhat weaker in apparently healthy subjects than in COPD or asthma patients. Our results provide indirect evidence for the hypothesis that cellular senescence may contribute to the pathogenesis of COPD and asthma, and that lung function may reflect biological ageing primarily due to intrinsic processes, which are likely to be aggravated in lung diseases.

A comparative risk assessment of burden of disease and injury attributable to 67 risk factors and risk factor clusters in 21 regions, 1990–2010: A systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010

BACKGROUND Quantification of the disease burden caused by different risks informs prevention by providing an account of health loss different to that provided by a disease-by-disease analysis. No complete revision of global disease burden caused by risk factors has been done since a comparative risk assessment in 2000, and no previous analysis has assessed changes in burden attributable to risk factors over time. METHODS We estimated deaths and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs; sum of years lived with disability [YLD] and years of life lost [YLL]) attributable to the independent effects of 67 risk factors and clusters of risk factors for 21 regions in 1990 and 2010. We estimated exposure distributions for each year, region, sex, and age group, and relative risks per unit of exposure by systematically reviewing and synthesising published and unpublished data. We used these estimates, together with estimates of cause-specific deaths and DALYs from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010, to calculate the burden attributable to each risk factor exposure compared with the theoretical-minimum-risk exposure. We incorporated uncertainty in disease burden, relative risks, and exposures into our estimates of attributable burden. FINDINGS In 2010, the three leading risk factors for global disease burden were high blood pressure (7·0% [95% uncertainty interval 6·2-7·7] of global DALYs), tobacco smoking including second-hand smoke (6·3% [5·5-7·0]), and alcohol use (5·5% [5·0-5·9]). In 1990, the leading risks were childhood underweight (7·9% [6·8-9·4]), household air pollution from solid fuels (HAP; 7·0% [5·6-8·3]), and tobacco smoking including second-hand smoke (6·1% [5·4-6·8]). Dietary risk factors and physical inactivity collectively accounted for 10·0% (95% UI 9·2-10·8) of global DALYs in 2010, with the most prominent dietary risks being diets low in fruits and those high in sodium. Several risks that primarily affect childhood communicable diseases, including unimproved water and sanitation and childhood micronutrient deficiencies, fell in rank between 1990 and 2010, with unimproved water and sanitation accounting for 0·9% (0·4-1·6) of global DALYs in 2010. However, in most of sub-Saharan Africa childhood underweight, HAP, and non-exclusive and discontinued breastfeeding were the leading risks in 2010, while HAP was the leading risk in south Asia. The leading risk factor in Eastern Europe, most of Latin America, and southern sub-Saharan Africa in 2010 was alcohol use; in most of Asia, North Africa and Middle East, and central Europe it was high blood pressure. Despite declines, tobacco smoking including second-hand smoke remained the leading risk in high-income north America and western Europe. High body-mass index has increased globally and it is the leading risk in Australasia and southern Latin America, and also ranks high in other high-income regions, North Africa and Middle East, and Oceania. INTERPRETATION Worldwide, the contribution of different risk factors to disease burden has changed substantially, with a shift away from risks for communicable diseases in children towards those for non-communicable diseases in adults. These changes are related to the ageing population, decreased mortality among children younger than 5 years, changes in cause-of-death composition, and changes in risk factor exposures. New evidence has led to changes in the magnitude of key risks including unimproved water and sanitation, vitamin A and zinc deficiencies, and ambient particulate matter pollution. The extent to which the epidemiological shift has occurred and what the leading risks currently are varies greatly across regions. In much of sub-Saharan Africa, the leading risks are still those associated with poverty and those that affect children.

Prevalence of diet related risk factors for chronic disease in male prisoners in a high secure prison

BACKGROUND/OBJECTIVES Research on prisoners is limited and demonstrates a group with disproportionate numbers from disadvantaged backgrounds, known to have a high burden of disease, much of which is diet related. The aim of this study was to gauge the presence of markers of chronic disease, as a basis for food and nutrition policy in prisons. METHODS/SUBJECTS A cross-sectional study design was used with a convenience sample of prisoners in a male 945 bed high secure facility. Face to face interviews with physical measures of height, weight, body fat, waist circumference and blood pressure were collected along with fasting bloods. Data was confirmed with facility records, observations and staff interviews. Full ethics approval was obtained. Results were compared with studies of Australian prisoners and the general population. RESULTS The mean age was 35.5 years (n=120). Prevalence rates were: obesity 14%, diabetes 5%, hypertension 26.7% and smoking 55.8%. Self-report of daily physical activity was 84%, with 51% participating ≥two times daily. Standard food provision was consistent with dietary recommendations, except sodium was high. Where fasting bloods were obtained (n=78) dyslipidaemia was 56.4% with the Metabolic Syndrome present in 26%. CONCLUSIONS Prevalence of diabetes and heart disease risk appear similar to the general population, however obesity was lower and smoking higher. The data provides evidence that markers of chronic disease are present, with this the first study to describe the Metabolic Syndrome in prisoners. Food and nutrition policy in this setting is complex and should address the duty of care issues that exist.

Particle doses in the pulmonary lobes of electronic and conventional cigarette users

The main aim of the present study was to estimate size segregated doses from e-cigarette aerosols as a function of the airway generation number in lung lobes.. After a 2-second puff, 7.7×1010 particles (DTot) with a surface area of 3.6×103 mm2 (STot), and 3.3×1010 particles with a surface area of 4.2×103 mm2 were deposited in the respiratory system for the electronic and conventional cigarettes, respectively. Alveolar and tracheobronchial deposited doses were compared to the ones received by non-smoking individuals in Western countries, showing a similar order of magnitude. Total regional doses (DR), in head and lobar tracheobronchial and alveolar regions, ranged from 2.7×109 to 1.3×1010 particles and 1.1×109 to 5.3×1010 particles, for the electronic and conventional cigarettes, respectively. DR in the right-upper lung lobe was about twice that found in left-upper lobe and 20% greater in right-lower lobe than the left-lower lobe.

DNA repair pathways and their therapeutic potential in lung cancer

Lung cancer is the leading cause of cancer-related mortality. According to WHO, 1.37 million deaths occur globally each year as a result of this disease. More than 70% of these cases are associated with prior tobacco consumption and/or cigarette smoking, suggesting a direct causal relationship. The development and progression of lung cancer and other malignancies involves the loss of genetic stability, resulting in acquisition of cumulative genetic changes; this affords the cell increased malignant potential. As such, an understanding of the mechanisms through which these events may occur will potentially allow for development of new anticancer therapies. This review will address the association between lung cancer and genetic instability, with a central focus on genetic mutations in the DNA damage repair pathways. In addition, we will discuss the potential clinical exploitation of these pathways, both in terms of biomarker staging, as well as through direct therapeutic targeting.

Good for the environment good for health

“First do no harm”. This phrase, attributed to the 19th century surgeon, Thomas Inman, 1 reflects an equivalent phrase found in Epidemics, Book I of the Hippocratic School, “Practise two things in your dealings with disease: either help or do not harm the patient”. Pharmacists have played, and continue to play, an important role in reducing patient harm from medication misadventures. Now, they have a new role to play. The delivery of pharmaceutical care contributes to climate change (e.g. through the embedded carbon in the manufacture and distribution of medicines, disposal of waste, and energy and water use),2 which in turn has a negative impact on health. 3,4 This paradox argues a moral and ethical obligation by pharmacists, to deliver pharmaceutical care more sustainably – do no harm. Sustainability “…. is concerned, on one hand, with resources and how we can preserve them, and, on the other hand, with waste products and how we can best reduce or dispose of them.” 5(p.37) It is about preserving and nurturing Earth’s resources and systems for this generation and future generations to enjoy. Pharmacists play an important role in preventative health strategies such as smoking cessation, promotion of healthier lifestyles and vaccination/immunisation programmes and have the potential to also play a significant role in delivering pharmaceutical care more sustainably. Sustainable pharmaceutical care may be considered a virtuous cycle - what is good for the environment is also good for our health. 5 The good news for community pharmacy owners and managers is that implementing sustainability initiatives in the pharmacy can also have significant financial co-benefits.

Tumour markers for oropharyngeal cancers

Head and neck cancers (HNC) are a globally prevalent malignancy. Despite the efforts of reducing several known etiological factors such as smoking and drinking to lower the incidence of HNC at the population level, the incidence of oropharyngeal cancers (OPC) is on the rise. OPC is caused by human papillomavirus (HPV) and most prevalent in a younger age group. This review critically examines the epidemiology, biology and laboratory detection of OPC and provides future insights into combating this debilitating disease.

Tobacco's mad men threaten public health

Non-communicable diseases – Matthew Rimmer examines plain packaging as a way to curb tobacco use. Smoking is one of the biggest causes of non-communicable diseases.

Cigarettes will kill you: The High Court of Australia and the plain packaging of tobacco products

Tobacco, says the World Health Organization (WHO), is “the only legal consumer product that kills when used exactly as intended by the manufacturer.” With a view to discouraging smoking and giving effect to the WHO Framework Convention on Tobacco Control, the Australian Parliament passed the Tobacco Plain Packaging Act 2011 (Cth), in November of that year. The legislation was supported by all the major political parties.

Genome-Wide Association Studies of Asthma in Population-Based Cohorts Confirm Known and Suggested Loci and Identify an Additional Association near HLA

Rationale: Asthma has substantial morbidity and mortality and a strong genetic component, but identification of genetic risk factors is limited by availability of suitable studies. Objectives: To test if population-based cohorts with self-reported physician-diagnosed asthma and genome-wide association (GWA) data could be used to validate known associations with asthma and identify novel associations. Methods: The APCAT (Analysis in Population-based Cohorts of Asthma Traits) consortium consists of 1,716 individuals with asthma and 16,888 healthy controls from six European-descent population-based cohorts. We examined associations in APCAT of thirteen variants previously reported as genome-wide significant (P<5x10-8) and three variants reported as suggestive (P<5×10-7). We also searched for novel associations in APCAT (Stage 1) and followed-up the most promising variants in 4,035 asthmatics and 11,251 healthy controls (Stage 2). Finally, we conducted the first genome-wide screen for interactions with smoking or hay fever. Main Results: We observed association in the same direction for all thirteen previously reported variants and nominally replicated ten of them. One variant that was previously suggestive, rs11071559 in RORA, now reaches genome-wide significance when combined with our data (P = 2.4×10-9). We also identified two genome-wide significant associations: rs13408661 near IL1RL1/IL18R1 (PStage1+Stage2 = 1.1x10-9), which is correlated with a variant recently shown to be associated with asthma (rs3771180), and rs9268516 in the HLA region (PStage1+Stage2 = 1.1x10-8), which appears to be independent of previously reported associations in this locus. Finally, we found no strong evidence for gene-environment interactions with smoking or hay fever status. Conclusions: Population-based cohorts with simple asthma phenotypes represent a valuable and largely untapped resource for genetic studies of asthma. © 2012 Ramasamy et al.

Five years of GWAS discovery

The past five years have seen many scientific and biological discoveries made through the experimental design of genome-wide association studies (GWASs). These studies were aimed at detecting variants at genomic loci that are associated with complex traits in the population and, in particular, at detecting associations between common single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) and common diseases such as heart disease, diabetes, auto-immune diseases, and psychiatric disorders. We start by giving a number of quotes from scientists and journalists about perceived problems with GWASs. We will then briefly give the history of GWASs and focus on the discoveries made through this experimental design, what those discoveries tell us and do not tell us about the genetics and biology of complex traits, and what immediate utility has come out of these studies. Rather than giving an exhaustive review of all reported findings for all diseases and other complex traits, we focus on the results for auto-immune diseases and metabolic diseases. We return to the perceived failure or disappointment about GWASs in the concluding section. © 2012 The American Society of Human Genetics.

Cardiovascular disease is increased prior to onset of rheumatoid arthritis but not osteoarthritis: The population-based Nord-Trøndelag health study (HUNT)

Introduction: Patients with rheumatoid arthritis (RA) have increased risk of cardiovascular (CV) events. We sought to test the hypothesis that due to increased inflammation, CV disease and risk factors are associated with increased risk of future RA development. Methods: The population-based Nord-Trøndelag health surveys (HUNT) were conducted among the entire adult population of Nord-Trøndelag, Norway. All inhabitants 20 years or older were invited, and information was collected through comprehensive questionnaires, a clinical examination, and blood samples. In a cohort design, data from HUNT2 (1995-1997, baseline) and HUNT3 (2006-2008, follow-up) were obtained to study participants with RA (n = 786) or osteoarthritis (n = 3,586) at HUNT3 alone, in comparison with individuals without RA or osteoarthritis at both times (n = 33,567). Results: Female gender, age, smoking, body mass index, and history of previous CV disease were associated with self-reported incident RA (previous CV disease: odds ratio 1.52 (95% confidence interval 1.11-2.07). The findings regarding previous CV disease were confirmed in sensitivity analyses excluding participants with psoriasis (odds ratio (OR) 1.70 (1.23-2.36)) or restricting the analysis to cases with a hospital diagnosis of RA (OR 1.90 (1.10-3.27)) or carriers of the shared epitope (OR 1.76 (1.13-2.74)). History of previous CV disease was not associated with increased risk of osteoarthritis (OR 1.04 (0.86-1.27)). Conclusion: A history of previous CV disease was associated with increased risk of incident RA but not osteoarthritis.