A comparative risk assessment of burden of disease and injury attributable to 67 risk factors and risk factor clusters in 21 regions, 1990–2010: A systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010

BACKGROUND Quantification of the disease burden caused by different risks informs prevention by providing an account of health loss different to that provided by a disease-by-disease analysis. No complete revision of global disease burden caused by risk factors has been done since a comparative risk assessment in 2000, and no previous analysis has assessed changes in burden attributable to risk factors over time. METHODS We estimated deaths and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs; sum of years lived with disability [YLD] and years of life lost [YLL]) attributable to the independent effects of 67 risk factors and clusters of risk factors for 21 regions in 1990 and 2010. We estimated exposure distributions for each year, region, sex, and age group, and relative risks per unit of exposure by systematically reviewing and synthesising published and unpublished data. We used these estimates, together with estimates of cause-specific deaths and DALYs from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010, to calculate the burden attributable to each risk factor exposure compared with the theoretical-minimum-risk exposure. We incorporated uncertainty in disease burden, relative risks, and exposures into our estimates of attributable burden. FINDINGS In 2010, the three leading risk factors for global disease burden were high blood pressure (7·0% [95% uncertainty interval 6·2-7·7] of global DALYs), tobacco smoking including second-hand smoke (6·3% [5·5-7·0]), and alcohol use (5·5% [5·0-5·9]). In 1990, the leading risks were childhood underweight (7·9% [6·8-9·4]), household air pollution from solid fuels (HAP; 7·0% [5·6-8·3]), and tobacco smoking including second-hand smoke (6·1% [5·4-6·8]). Dietary risk factors and physical inactivity collectively accounted for 10·0% (95% UI 9·2-10·8) of global DALYs in 2010, with the most prominent dietary risks being diets low in fruits and those high in sodium. Several risks that primarily affect childhood communicable diseases, including unimproved water and sanitation and childhood micronutrient deficiencies, fell in rank between 1990 and 2010, with unimproved water and sanitation accounting for 0·9% (0·4-1·6) of global DALYs in 2010. However, in most of sub-Saharan Africa childhood underweight, HAP, and non-exclusive and discontinued breastfeeding were the leading risks in 2010, while HAP was the leading risk in south Asia. The leading risk factor in Eastern Europe, most of Latin America, and southern sub-Saharan Africa in 2010 was alcohol use; in most of Asia, North Africa and Middle East, and central Europe it was high blood pressure. Despite declines, tobacco smoking including second-hand smoke remained the leading risk in high-income north America and western Europe. High body-mass index has increased globally and it is the leading risk in Australasia and southern Latin America, and also ranks high in other high-income regions, North Africa and Middle East, and Oceania. INTERPRETATION Worldwide, the contribution of different risk factors to disease burden has changed substantially, with a shift away from risks for communicable diseases in children towards those for non-communicable diseases in adults. These changes are related to the ageing population, decreased mortality among children younger than 5 years, changes in cause-of-death composition, and changes in risk factor exposures. New evidence has led to changes in the magnitude of key risks including unimproved water and sanitation, vitamin A and zinc deficiencies, and ambient particulate matter pollution. The extent to which the epidemiological shift has occurred and what the leading risks currently are varies greatly across regions. In much of sub-Saharan Africa, the leading risks are still those associated with poverty and those that affect children.

Novel loci affecting iron homeostasis and their effects in individuals at risk for hemochromatosis

Variation in body iron is associated with or causes diseases, including anaemia and iron overload. Here, we analyse genetic association data on biochemical markers of iron status from 11 European-population studies, with replication in eight additional cohorts (total up to 48,972 subjects). We find 11 genome-wide-significant (P<5 × 10−8) loci, some including known iron-related genes (​HFE, ​SLC40A1, ​TF, ​TFR2, ​TFRC, ​TMPRSS6) and others novel (​ABO, ​ARNTL, ​FADS2, ​NAT2, ​TEX14). SNPs at ​ARNTL, ​TF, and ​TFR2 affect iron markers in ​HFE C282Y homozygotes at risk for hemochromatosis. There is substantial overlap between our iron loci and loci affecting erythrocyte and lipid phenotypes. These results will facilitate investigation of the roles of iron in disease.

A meta-analysis of 87,040 individuals identifies 23 new susceptibility loci for prostate cancer

Genome-wide association studies (GWAS) have identified 76 variants associated with prostate cancer risk predominantly in populations of European ancestry. To identify additional susceptibility loci for this common cancer, we conducted a meta-analysis of > 10 million SNPs in 43,303 prostate cancer cases and 43,737 controls from studies in populations of European, African, Japanese and Latino ancestry. Twenty-three new susceptibility loci were identified at association P < 5 × 10(-8); 15 variants were identified among men of European ancestry, 7 were identified in multi-ancestry analyses and 1 was associated with early-onset prostate cancer. These 23 variants, in combination with known prostate cancer risk variants, explain 33% of the familial risk for this disease in European-ancestry populations. These findings provide new regions for investigation into the pathogenesis of prostate cancer and demonstrate the usefulness of combining ancestrally diverse populations to discover risk loci for disease.

Grassland productivity limited by multiple nutrients

Terrestrial ecosystem productivity is widely accepted to be nutrient limited1. Although nitrogen (N) is deemed a key determinant of aboveground net primary production (ANPP)2,3, the prevalence of co-limitation by N and phosphorus (P) is increasingly recognized4,​5,​6,​7,​8. However, the extent to which terrestrial productivity is co-limited by nutrients other than N and P has remained unclear. Here, we report results from a standardized factorial nutrient addition experiment, in which we added N, P and potassium (K) combined with a selection of micronutrients (K+μ), alone or in concert, to 42 grassland sites spanning five continents, and monitored ANPP. Nutrient availability limited productivity at 31 of the 42 grassland sites. And pairwise combinations of N, P, and K+μ co-limited ANPP at 29 of the sites. Nitrogen limitation peaked in cool, high latitude sites. Our findings highlight the importance of less studied nutrients, such as K and micronutrients, for grassland productivity, and point to significant variations in the type and degree of nutrient limitation. We suggest that multiple-nutrient constraints must be considered when assessing the ecosystem-scale consequences of nutrient enrichment.

Trainee-therapists are not all equal: Examination of therapeutic efficiency, effectiveness and early client dropout after 12 months of clinical training

Objective Contemporary research demonstrates the feasibility of assessing therapeutic performance of trainee-therapists through the use of objective measures of client treatment outcome. Further, significant variation between individual therapists based on their client treatment outcomes has been demonstrated. This study sets out to determine whether a reliable composite measure of therapeutic efficiency, effectiveness and early dropout can be developed and used to objectively compare trainee-therapists against each other. Design and methods Treatment outcomes of 611 clients receiving treatment from 58 trainee-therapists enrolled in a professional training programme were tracked with the OQ-45.2 over a 6-year period to assess therapeutic efficiency, therapeutic effectiveness and early client dropout. Results Significant variation between trainee-therapists was observed for each index. Findings of a moderately strong correlation between therapeutic efficiency and effectiveness enabled the ranking of trainee-therapists based upon a composite measure of these indexes. A non-significant correlation was found between early client dropout and measures of therapeutic effectiveness and efficiency. Conclusions The findings stress the importance of utilizing objective measures to track the treatment outcomes. Despite all trainee-therapists being enrolled in the same training programme, significant variation between trainee-therapists' therapeutic efficiency and effectiveness was found to exist. Practitioner points Developing of potential benchmarking tools that enable trainee-therapists, supervisors and educational institutions to quickly assess therapeutic performance can become part of a holistic assessment of a trainee-therapist's clinical development. Despite an inherent optimistic belief that therapists do not cause harm, there appears to be a small and significant proportion of trainee-therapists who consistently evidence little therapeutic change. Considerable variability in trainee-therapists' therapeutic efficiency and effectiveness can exist in the one training programme. Early client dropout may not be associated with therapists' therapeutic effectiveness and efficiency.

The transcriptome of the bowhead whale Balaena mysticetus reveals adaptations of the longest‐lived mammal

Mammals vary dramatically in lifespan, by at least two-orders of magnitude, but the molecular basis for this difference remains largely unknown. The bowhead whale Balaena mysticetus is the longest-lived mammal known, with an estimated maximal lifespan in excess of two hundred years. It is also one of the two largest animals and the most cold-adapted baleen whale species. Here, we report the first genome-wide gene expression analyses of the bowhead whale, based on the de novo assembly of its transcriptome. Bowhead whale or cetacean-specific changes in gene expression were identified in the liver, kidney and heart, and complemented with analyses of positively selected genes. Changes associated with altered insulin signaling and other gene expression patterns could help explain the remarkable longevity of bowhead whales as well as their adaptation to a lipid-rich diet. The data also reveal parallels in candidate longevity adaptations of the bowhead whale, naked mole rat and Brandt's bat. The bowhead whale transcriptome is a valuable resource for the study of this remarkable animal, including the evolution of longevity and its important correlates such as resistance to cancer and other diseases.

Exploring accuracy factors in cost estimating practice towards implementing Building Information Modelling (BIM)

Cost estimating has been acknowledged as a crucial component of construction projects. Depending on available information and project requirements, cost estimates evolve in tandem with project lifecycle stages; conceptualisation, design development, execution and facility management. The premium placed on the accuracy of cost estimates is crucial to producing project tenders and eventually in budget management. Notwithstanding the initial slow pace of its adoption, Building Information Modelling (BIM) has successfully addressed a number of challenges previously characteristic of traditional approaches in the AEC, including poor communication, the prevalence of islands of information and frequent reworks. Therefore, it is conceivable that BIM can be leveraged to address specific shortcomings of cost estimation. The impetus for leveraging BIM models for accurate cost estimation is to align budgeted and actual cost. This paper hypothesises that the accuracy of BIM-based estimation, as more efficient, process-mirrors of traditional cost estimation methods, can be enhanced by simulating traditional cost estimation factors variables. Through literature reviews and preliminary expert interviews, this paper explores the factors that could potentially lead to more accurate cost estimates for construction projects. The findings show numerous factors that affect the cost estimates ranging from project information and its characteristic, project team, clients, contractual matters, and other external influences. This paper will make a particular contribution to the early phase of BIM-based project estimation.

Postcoital dysphoria: Prevalence and psychological correlates

Introduction While problems related to desire, arousal, and orgasm have been subject to extensive epidemiologic research, women's postcoital reactions and feelings, and postcoital dysphoria (PCD) remains under-researched. - Aim The study examined the association between women's attachment anxiety and avoidance, differentiation of self, and the experience of PCD symptoms. - Methods Two hundred and thirty female university students completed an online survey. - Main Outcome Measures The Female Sexual Function Index, the Experiences in Close Relationships Scale, the Differentiation of Self Inventory-Revised, and study specific questions. - Results Forty-six percent of respondents reported experiencing PCD symptoms at least once in their lifetime with 5.1% experiencing PCD symptoms a few times within the past 4 weeks. A small but significant inverse correlation was found between lifetime prevalence of PCD and sexual functioning (r = −0.16). While the regression model accounted for 22% of variance in lifetime prevalence of PCD, attachment and differentiation of self variables did not account for significant variance. - Conclusions The findings confirm that PCD is under-recognized and under-researched. There appears to be no relationship between PCD and intimacy in close relationships. Further research is necessary to understand the subjective experience of PCD and to inform the development of a reliable measure.

The influence of Lord Robert Baden-Powell on the development of the Boy Scout Movement with observations on its operation in Queensland 1907-1937

The purpose of the Boy Scout Movement was to create boys who were honest, obedient to constituted authority and loyal to the King and the British Empire. This thesis examines the influence that Scouting's founder, Lord Robert Baden-Powell, had on the development of Scouting in Queensland in the period 1907 to 1937, and concludes that that influence was profound. Baden-Powell conceived the Boy Scout Movement, and its non-formal educative method as an answer to some of the social, economic, and political problems at the beginning of the twentieth century – a paradigm recognised and acknowledged by educators of the day.

Pathogens penetrating the central nervous system: Infection pathways and the cellular and molecular mechanisms of invasion

The brain is well protected against microbial invasion by cellular barriers, such as the blood-brain barrier (BBB) and the blood-cerebrospinal fluid barrier (BCSFB). In addition, cells within the central nervous system (CNS) are capable of producing an immune response against invading pathogens. Nonetheless, a range of pathogenic microbes make their way to the CNS, and the resulting infections can cause significant morbidity and mortality. Bacteria, amoebae, fungi, and viruses are capable of CNS invasion, with the latter using axonal transport as a common route of infection. In this review, we compare the mechanisms by which bacterial pathogens reach the CNS and infect the brain. In particular, we focus on recent data regarding mechanisms of bacterial translocation from the nasal mucosa to the brain, which represents a little explored pathway of bacterial invasion but has been proposed as being particularly important in explaining how infection with Burkholderia pseudomallei can result in melioidosis encephalomyelitis.

Experiences of countertransference: Reports of clinical psychology students

While historically linked with psychoanalysis, countertransference is recognised as an important component of the experience of therapists, regardless of the therapeutic modality. This study considers the implications of this for the training of psychologists. Fifty-five clinical psychology trainees from four university training programmes completed an anonymous questionnaire that collected written reports of countertransference experiences, ratings of confidence in managing these responses, and supervision in this regard. The reports were analysed using a process of thematic analysis. Several themes emerged including a desire to protect or rescue clients, feeling criticised or controlled by clients, feeling helpless, and feeling disengaged. Trainees varied in their reports of awareness of countertransference and the regularity of supervision in this regard. The majority reported a lack of confidence in managing their responses, and all reported interest in learning about countertransference. The implications for reflective practice in postgraduate psychology training are discussed.

Archiving primary data: Solutions for long-term studies

The recent trend for journals to require open access to primary data included in publications has been embraced by many biologists, but has caused apprehension amongst researchers engaged in long-term ecological and evolutionary studies. A worldwide survey of 73 principal investigators (Pls) with long-term studies revealed positive attitudes towards sharing data with the agreement or involvement of the PI, and 93% of PIs have historically shared data. Only 8% were in favor of uncontrolled, open access to primary data while 63% expressed serious concern. We present here their viewpoint on an issue that can have non-trivial scientific consequences. We discuss potential costs of public data archiving and provide possible solutions to meet the needs of journals and researchers.

Genetics of rheumatoid arthritis contributes to biology and drug discovery

A major challenge in human genetics is to devise a systematic strategy to integrate disease-associated variants with diverse genomic and biological data sets to provide insight into disease pathogenesis and guide drug discovery for complex traits such as rheumatoid arthritis (RA)1. Here we performed a genome-wide association study meta-analysis in a total of >100,000 subjects of European and Asian ancestries (29,880 RA cases and 73,758 controls), by evaluating ~10 million single-nucleotide polymorphisms. We discovered 42 novel RA risk loci at a genome-wide level of significance, bringing the total to 101 (refs 2, 3, 4). We devised an in silico pipeline using established bioinformatics methods based on functional annotation5, cis-acting expression quantitative trait loci6 and pathway analyses7, 8, 9—as well as novel methods based on genetic overlap with human primary immunodeficiency, haematological cancer somatic mutations and knockout mouse phenotypes—to identify 98 biological candidate genes at these 101 risk loci. We demonstrate that these genes are the targets of approved therapies for RA, and further suggest that drugs approved for other indications may be repurposed for the treatment of RA. Together, this comprehensive genetic study sheds light on fundamental genes, pathways and cell types that contribute to RA pathogenesis, and provides empirical evidence that the genetics of RA can provide important information for drug discovery.

Major histocompatibility complex associations of ankylosing spondylitis are complex and involve further epistasis with ERAP1

Ankylosing spondylitis (AS) is a common, highly heritable, inflammatory arthritis for which HLA-B*27 is the major genetic risk factor, although its role in the aetiology of AS remains elusive. To better understand the genetic basis of the MHC susceptibility loci, we genotyped 7,264 MHC SNPs in 22,647 AS cases and controls of European descent. We impute SNPs, classical HLA alleles and amino-acid residues within HLA proteins, and tested these for association to AS status. Here we show that in addition to effects due to HLA-B*27 alleles, several other HLA-B alleles also affect susceptibility. After controlling for the associated haplotypes in HLA-B, we observe independent associations with variants in the HLA-A, HLA-DPB1 and HLA-DRB1 loci. We also demonstrate that the ERAP1 SNP rs30187 association is not restricted only to carriers of HLA-B*27 but also found in HLA-B*40:01 carriers independently of HLA-B*27 genotype.

Genome-wide meta-analysis identifies 56 bone mineral density loci and reveals 14 loci associated with risk of fracture

Bone mineral density (BMD) is the most widely used predictor of fracture risk. We performed the largest meta-analysis to date on lumbar spine and femoral neck BMD, including 17 genome-wide association studies and 32,961 individuals of European and east Asian ancestry. We tested the top BMD-associated markers for replication in 50,933 independent subjects and for association with risk of low-trauma fracture in 31,016 individuals with a history of fracture (cases) and 102,444 controls. We identified 56 loci (32 new) associated with BMD at genome-wide significance (P < 5 × 10−8). Several of these factors cluster within the RANK-RANKL-OPG, mesenchymal stem cell differentiation, endochondral ossification and Wnt signaling pathways. However, we also discovered loci that were localized to genes not known to have a role in bone biology. Fourteen BMD-associated loci were also associated with fracture risk (P < 5 × 10−4, Bonferroni corrected), of which six reached P < 5 × 10−8, including at 18p11.21 (FAM210A), 7q21.3 (SLC25A13), 11q13.2 (LRP5), 4q22.1 (MEPE), 2p16.2 (SPTBN1) and 10q21.1 (DKK1). These findings shed light on the genetic architecture and pathophysiological mechanisms underlying BMD variation and fracture susceptibility.