Estimation on the mortality and disease burden attributed to selected risk factors in Shandong province [山东省主要危险因素的归因死亡和疾病负担分析]

Objective: To determine the major health related risk factors and provide evidence for policy-making,using health burden analysis on selected factors among general population from Shandong province. Methods: Based on data derived from the Third Death of Cause Sampling Survey in Shandong. Years of life lcrat(YLLs),yearS Iived with disability(YLDs)and disability-adjusted life years(DALYs) were calculated according to the GBD ethodology.Deaths and DALYs attributed to the selected risk factors were than estimated together with the PAF data from GBD 2001 study.The indirect method was employed to estimate the YLDs. Results: 51.09%of the total dearlls and 31.83%of the total DALYs from the Shandong population were resulted from the 19 selected risk factors.High blood pre.ure,smoking,low fruit and vegetable intake,aleohol consumption,indoor smoke from solid fuels,high cholesterol,urban air pollution, physical inactivity,overweight and obesity and unsafe injections in health care settings were identified as the top 10 risk faetors for mortality which together caused 50.21%of the total deaths.Alcohol use,smoking,high blood pressure,Low fruit and vegetable intake, indoor smoke from solid fuels, overweight and obesity,high cholesterol, physical inactivity,urban air pollution and iron-deficiency anemia were proved as the top 10 risk factors related to disease burden and were responsible for 29.04%of the total DALYs. Conclusion: Alcohol use.smoking and high blood pressure were determined as the major risk factors which influencing the health of residents in Shandong. The mortality and burden of disease could be reduced significantly if these major factors were effectively under control.

Estimation of energy saving of commercial building by living wall and green facade in sub-tropical climate of Australia

This paper investigates energy saving potential of commercial building by living wall and green façade system using Envelope Thermal Transfer Value (ETTV) equation in Sub-tropical climate of Australia. Energy saving of four commercial buildings was quantified by applying living wall and green façade system to the west facing wall. A field experimental facility, from which temperature data of living wall system was collected, was used to quantify wall temperatures and heat gain under controlled conditions. The experimental parameters were accumulated with extensive data of existing commercial building to quantify energy saving. Based on temperature data of living wall system comprised of Australian native plants, equivalent temperature of living wall system has been computed. Then, shading coefficient of plants in green façade system has been included in mathematical equation and in graphical analysis. To minimize the air-conditioned load of commercial building, therefore to minimize the heat gain of commercial building, an analysis of building heat gain reduction by living wall and green façade system has been performed. Overall, cooling energy performance of commercial building before and after living wall and green façade system application has been examined. The quantified energy saving showed that only living wall system on opaque part of west facing wall can save 8-13 % of cooling energy consumption where as only green façade system on opaque part of west facing wall can save 9.5-18% cooling energy consumption of commercial building. Again, green façade system on fenestration system on west facing wall can save 28-35 % of cooling energy consumption where as combination of both living wall on opaque part of west facing wall and green façade on fenestration system on west facing wall can save 35-40% cooling energy consumption of commercial building in sub-tropical climate of Australia.

Integrated approach for HP-LNG pump diagnosis and prognostics based on health state probability estimation

This paper presents an innovative prognostics model based on health state probability estimation embedded in the closed loop diagnostic and prognostic system. To employ an appropriate classifier for health state probability estimation in the proposed prognostic model, the comparative intelligent diagnostic tests were conducted using five different classifiers applied to the progressive fault levels of three faults in HP-LNG pump. Two sets of impeller-rubbing data were employed for the prediction of pump remnant life based on estimation of discrete health state probability using an outstanding capability of SVM and a feature selection technique. The results obtained were very encouraging and showed that the proposed prognosis system has the potential to be used as an estimation tool for machine remnant life prediction in real life industrial applications.

Change Point Estimation in Monitoring Survival Time

Precise identification of the time when a change in a hospital outcome has occurred enables clinical experts to search for a potential special cause more effectively. In this paper, we develop change point estimation methods for survival time of a clinical procedure in the presence of patient mix in a Bayesian framework. We apply Bayesian hierarchical models to formulate the change point where there exists a step change in the mean survival time of patients who underwent cardiac surgery. The data are right censored since the monitoring is conducted over a limited follow-up period. We capture the effect of risk factors prior to the surgery using a Weibull accelerated failure time regression model. Markov Chain Monte Carlo is used to obtain posterior distributions of the change point parameters including location and magnitude of changes and also corresponding probabilistic intervals and inferences. The performance of the Bayesian estimator is investigated through simulations and the result shows that precise estimates can be obtained when they are used in conjunction with the risk-adjusted survival time CUSUM control charts for different magnitude scenarios. The proposed estimator shows a better performance where a longer follow-up period, censoring time, is applied. In comparison with the alternative built-in CUSUM estimator, more accurate and precise estimates are obtained by the Bayesian estimator. These superiorities are enhanced when probability quantification, flexibility and generalizability of the Bayesian change point detection model are also considered.

Volume estimation from multiplanar 2D ultrasound images using a remote electromagnetic position and orientation sensor

A system is described for calculating volume from a sequence of multiplanar 2D ultrasound images. Ultrasound images are captured using a video digitising card (Hauppauge Win/TV card) installed in a personal computer, and regions of interest transformed into 3D space using position and orientation data obtained from an electromagnetic device (Polbemus, Fastrak). The accuracy of the system was assessed by scanning 10 water filled balloons (13-141 ml), 10 kidneys (147  200 ml) and 16 fetal livers (8  37 ml) in water using an Acuson 128XP/10 (5 MHz curvilinear probe). Volume was calculated using the ellipsoid, planimetry, tetrahedral and ray tracing methods and compared with the actual volume measured by weighing (balloons) and water displacement (kidneys and livers). The mean percentage error for the ray tracing method was 0.9 ± 2.4%, 2.7 ± 2.3%, 6.6 ± 5.4% for balloons, kidneys and livers, respectively. So far the system has been used clinically to scan fetal livers and lungs, neonate brain ventricles and adult prostate glands.

In vitro estimation of foetal liver volume using ultrasound, x-ray computed tomography and magnetic resonance imaging

Sixteen formalin-fixed foetal livers were scanned in vitro using a new system for estimating volume from a sequence of multiplanar 2D ultrasound images. Three different scan techniques were used (radial, parallel and slanted) and four volume estimation algorithms (ellipsoid, planimetry, tetrahedral and ray tracing). Actual liver volumes were measured by water displacement. Twelve of the sixteen livers also received x-ray computed tomography (CT) and magnetic resonance (MR) scans and the volumes were calculated using voxel counting and planimetry. The percentage accuracy (mean ± SD) was 5.3 ± 4.7%, −3.1 ± 9.6% and −0.03 ± 9.7% for ultrasound (radial scans, ray volumes), MR and CT (voxel counting) respectively. The new system may be useful for accurately estimating foetal liver volume in utero.

An estimation of crash risks using a log-linear model and the induced exposure technique

Prevention and safety promotion programmes. Traditionally, in-depth investigations of crash risks are conducted using exposure controlled study or case-control methodology. However, these studies need either observational data for control cases or exogenous exposure data like vehicle-kilometres travel, entry flow or product of conflicting flow for a particular traffic location, or a traffic site. These data are not readily available and often require extensive data collection effort on a system-wide basis. Aim: The objective of this research is to propose an alternative methodology to investigate crash risks of a road user group in different circumstances using readily available traffic police crash data. Methods: This study employs a combination of a log-linear model and the quasi-induced exposure technique to estimate crash risks of a road user group. While the log-linear model reveals the significant interactions and thus the prevalence of crashes of a road user group under various sets of traffic, environmental and roadway factors, the quasi-induced exposure technique estimates relative exposure of that road user in the same set of explanatory variables. Therefore, the combination of these two techniques provides relative measures of crash risks under various influences of roadway, environmental and traffic conditions. The proposed methodology has been illustrated using Brisbane motorcycle crash data of five years. Results: Interpretations of results on different combination of interactive factors show that the poor conspicuity of motorcycles is a predominant cause of motorcycle crashes. Inability of other drivers to correctly judge the speed and distance of an oncoming motorcyclist is also evident in right-of-way violation motorcycle crashes at intersections. Discussion and Conclusions: The combination of a log-linear model and the induced exposure technique is a promising methodology and can be applied to better estimate crash risks of other road users. This study also highlights the importance of considering interaction effects to better understand hazardous situations. A further study on the comparison between the proposed methodology and case-control method would be useful.

Accuracy of rate estimation using relaxed-clock models with a critical focus on the early metazoan radiation

In recent years, a number of phylogenetic methods have been developed for estimating molecular rates and divergence dates under models that relax the molecular clock constraint by allowing rate change throughout the tree. These methods are being used with increasing frequency, but there have been few studies into their accuracy. We tested the accuracy of several relaxed-clock methods (penalized likelihood and Bayesian inference using various models of rate change) using nucleotide sequences simulated on a nine-taxon tree. When the sequences evolved with a constant rate, the methods were able to infer rates accurately, but estimates were more precise when a molecular clock was assumed. When the sequences evolved under a model of autocorrelated rate change, rates were accurately estimated using penalized likelihood and by Bayesian inference using lognormal and exponential models of rate change, while other models did not perform as well. When the sequences evolved under a model of uncorrelated rate change, only Bayesian inference using an exponential rate model performed well. Collectively, the results provide a strong recommendation for using the exponential model of rate change if a conservative approach to divergence time estimation is required. A case study is presented in which we use a simulation-based approach to examine the hypothesis of elevated rates in the Cambrian period, and it is found that these high rate estimates might be an artifact of the rate estimation method. If this bias is present, then the ages of metazoan divergences would be systematically underestimated. The results of this study have implications for studies of molecular rates and divergence dates.

Accounting for calibration uncertainty in phylogenetic estimation of evolutionary divergence times

The estimation of phylogenetic divergence times from sequence data is an important component of many molecular evolutionary studies. There is now a general appreciation that the procedure of divergence dating is considerably more complex than that initially described in the 1960s by Zuckerkandl and Pauling (1962, 1965). In particular, there has been much critical attention toward the assumption of a global molecular clock, resulting in the development of increasingly sophisticated techniques for inferring divergence times from sequence data. In response to the documentation of widespread departures from clocklike behavior, a variety of local- and relaxed-clock methods have been proposed and implemented. Local-clock methods permit different molecular clocks in different parts of the phylogenetic tree, thereby retaining the advantages of the classical molecular clock while casting off the restrictive assumption of a single, global rate of substitution (Rambaut and Bromham 1998; Yoder and Yang 2000).

Branch-length estimation bias misleads molecular dating for a vertebrate mitochondrial phylogeny

Despite recent methodological advances in inferring the time-scale of biological evolution from molecular data, the fundamental question of whether our substitution models are sufficiently well specified to accurately estimate branch-lengths has received little attention. I examine this implicit assumption of all molecular dating methods, on a vertebrate mitochondrial protein-coding dataset. Comparison with analyses in which the data are RY-coded (AG → R; CT → Y) suggests that even rates-across-sites maximum likelihood greatly under-compensates for multiple substitutions among the standard (ACGT) NT-coded data, which has been subject to greater phylogenetic signal erosion. Accordingly, the fossil record indicates that branch-lengths inferred from the NT-coded data translate into divergence time overestimates when calibrated from deeper in the tree. Intriguingly, RY-coding led to the opposite result. The underlying NT and RY substitution model misspecifications likely relate respectively to “hidden” rate heterogeneity and changes in substitution processes across the tree, for which I provide simulated examples. Given the magnitude of the inferred molecular dating errors, branch-length estimation biases may partly explain current conflicts with some palaeontological dating estimates.

An innovative approach to the assessment of nutrient intake in adults with type 2 diabetes : the development, trial and evaluation of a mobile phone photo/voice dietary record

Nutrition interventions in the form of both self-management education and individualised diet therapy are considered essential for the long-term management of type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM). The measurement of diet is essential to inform, support and evaluate nutrition interventions in the management of T2DM. Barriers inherent within health care settings and systems limit ongoing access to personnel and resources, while traditional prospective methods of assessing diet are burdensome for the individual and often result in changes in typical intake to facilitate recording. This thesis investigated the inclusion of information and communication technologies (ICT) to overcome limitations to current approaches in the nutritional management of T2DM, in particular the development, trial and evaluation of the Nutricam dietary assessment method (NuDAM) consisting of a mobile phone photo/voice application to assess nutrient intake in a free-living environment with older adults with T2DM. Study 1: Effectiveness of an automated telephone system in promoting change in dietary intake among adults with T2DM The effectiveness of an automated telephone system, Telephone-Linked Care (TLC) Diabetes, designed to deliver self-management education was evaluated in terms of promoting dietary change in adults with T2DM and sub-optimal glycaemic control. In this secondary data analysis independent of the larger randomised controlled trial, complete data was available for 95 adults (59 male; mean age(±SD)=56.8±8.1 years; mean(±SD)BMI=34.2±7.0kg/m2). The treatment effect showed a reduction in total fat of 1.4% and saturated fat of 0.9% energy intake, body weight of 0.7 kg and waist circumference of 2.0 cm. In addition, a significant increase in the nutrition self-efficacy score of 1.3 (p<0.05) was observed in the TLC group compared to the control group. The modest trends observed in this study indicate that the TLC Diabetes system does support the adoption of positive nutrition behaviours as a result of diabetes self-management education, however caution must be applied in the interpretation of results due to the inherent limitations of the dietary assessment method used. The decision to use a close-list FFQ with known bias may have influenced the accuracy of reporting dietary intake in this instance. This study provided an example of the methodological challenges experienced with measuring changes in absolute diet using a FFQ, and reaffirmed the need for novel prospective assessment methods capable of capturing natural variance in usual intakes. Study 2: The development and trial of NuDAM recording protocol The feasibility of the Nutricam mobile phone photo/voice dietary record was evaluated in 10 adults with T2DM (6 Male; age=64.7±3.8 years; BMI=33.9±7.0 kg/m2). Intake was recorded over a 3-day period using both Nutricam and a written estimated food record (EFR). Compared to the EFR, the Nutricam device was found to be acceptable among subjects, however, energy intake was under-recorded using Nutricam (-0.6±0.8 MJ/day; p<0.05). Beverages and snacks were the items most frequently not recorded using Nutricam; however forgotten meals contributed to the greatest difference in energy intake between records. In addition, the quality of dietary data recorded using Nutricam was unacceptable for just under one-third of entries. It was concluded that an additional mechanism was necessary to complement dietary information collected via Nutricam. Modifications to the method were made to allow for clarification of Nutricam entries and probing forgotten foods during a brief phone call to the subject the following morning. The revised recording protocol was evaluated in Study 4. Study 3: The development and trial of the NuDAM analysis protocol Part A explored the effect of the type of portion size estimation aid (PSEA) on the error associated with quantifying four portions of 15 single foods items contained in photographs. Seventeen dietetic students (1 male; age=24.7±9.1 years; BMI=21.1±1.9 kg/m2) estimated all food portions on two occasions: without aids and with aids (food models or reference food photographs). Overall, the use of a PSEA significantly reduced mean (±SD) group error between estimates compared to no aid (-2.5±11.5% vs. 19.0±28.8%; p<0.05). The type of PSEA (i.e. food models vs. reference food photograph) did not have a notable effect on the group estimation error (-6.7±14.9% vs. 1.4±5.9%, respectively; p=0.321). This exploratory study provided evidence that the use of aids in general, rather than the type, was more effective in reducing estimation error. Findings guided the development of the Dietary Estimation and Assessment Tool (DEAT) for use in the analysis of the Nutricam dietary record. Part B evaluated the effect of the DEAT on the error associated with the quantification of two 3-day Nutricam dietary records in a sample of 29 dietetic students (2 males; age=23.3±5.1 years; BMI=20.6±1.9 kg/m2). Subjects were randomised into two groups: Group A and Group B. For Record 1, the use of the DEAT (Group A) resulted in a smaller error compared to estimations made without the tool (Group B) (17.7±15.8%/day vs. 34.0±22.6%/day, p=0.331; respectively). In comparison, all subjects used the DEAT to estimate Record 2, with resultant error similar between Group A and B (21.2±19.2%/day vs. 25.8±13.6%/day; p=0.377 respectively). In general, the moderate estimation error associated with quantifying food items did not translate into clinically significant differences in the nutrient profile of the Nutricam dietary records, only amorphous foods were notably over-estimated in energy content without the use of the DEAT (57kJ/day vs. 274kJ/day; p<0.001). A large proportion (89.6%) of the group found the DEAT helpful when quantifying food items contained in the Nutricam dietary records. The use of the DEAT reduced quantification error, minimising any potential effect on the estimation of energy and macronutrient intake. Study 4: Evaluation of the NuDAM The accuracy and inter-rater reliability of the NuDAM to assess energy and macronutrient intake was evaluated in a sample of 10 adults (6 males; age=61.2±6.9 years; BMI=31.0±4.5 kg/m2). Intake recorded using both the NuDAM and a weighed food record (WFR) was coded by three dietitians and compared with an objective measure of total energy expenditure (TEE) obtained using the doubly labelled water technique. At the group level, energy intake (EI) was under-reported to a similar extent using both methods, with the ratio of EI:TEE was 0.76±0.20 for the NuDAM and 0.76±0.17 for the WFR. At the individual level, four subjects reported implausible levels of energy intake using the WFR method, compared to three using the NuDAM. Overall, moderate to high correlation coefficients (r=0.57-0.85) were found across energy and macronutrients except fat (r=0.24) between the two dietary measures. High agreement was observed between dietitians for estimates of energy and macronutrient derived for both the NuDAM (ICC=0.77-0.99; p<0.001) and WFR (ICC=0.82-0.99; p<0.001). All subjects preferred using the NuDAM over the WFR to record intake and were willing to use the novel method again over longer recording periods. This research program explored two novel approaches which utilised distinct technologies to aid in the nutritional management of adults with T2DM. In particular, this thesis makes a significant contribution to the evidence base surrounding the use of PhRs through the development, trial and evaluation of a novel mobile phone photo/voice dietary record. The NuDAM is an extremely promising advancement in the nutritional management of individuals with diabetes and other chronic conditions. Future applications lie in integrating the NuDAM with other technologies to facilitate practice across the remaining stages of the nutrition care process.

Monotonous trend estimation using recursive prony analysis

This paper presents a solution to the problem of estimating the monotonous tendency of a slow-varying oscillating system. A recursive Prony Analysis (PA) scheme is developed which involves obtaining a dynamic model with parameters identified by implementing the forgetting factor recursive least square (FFRLS) method. A box threshold principle is proposed to separate the dominant components, which results in an accurate estimation of the trend of oscillating systems. Performance of the proposed PA is evaluated using real-time measurements when random noise and vibration effects are present. Moreover, the proposed method is used to estimate monotonous tendency of deck displacement to assist in a safe landing of an unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV). It is shown that the proposed method can estimate instantaneous mean deck satisfactorily, making it well suited for integration into ship-UAV approach and landing guidance systems.

System identification, estimation and control for a cost effective open-source quadcopter

This paper describes system identification, estimation and control of translational motion and heading angle for a cost effective open-source quadcopter — the MikroKopter. The dynamics of its built-in sensors, roll and pitch attitude controller, and system latencies are determined and used to design a computationally inexpensive multi-rate velocity estimator that fuses data from the built-in inertial sensors and a low-rate onboard laser range finder. Control is performed using a nested loop structure that is also computationally inexpensive and incorporates different sensors. Experimental results for the estimator and closed-loop positioning are presented and compared with ground truth from a motion capture system.

Integrated vision-based attitude estimation

For many years, computer vision has lured researchers with promises of a low-cost, passive, lightweight and information-rich sensor suitable for navigation purposes. The prime difficulty in vision-based navigation is that the navigation solution will continually drift with time unless external information is available, whether it be cues from the appearance of the scene, a map of features (whether built online or known a priori), or from an externally-referenced sensor. It is not merely position that is of interest in the navigation problem. Attitude (i.e. the angular orientation of a body with respect to a reference frame) is integral to a visionbased navigation solution and is often of interest in its own right (e.g. flight control). This thesis examines vision-based attitude estimation in an aerospace environment, and two methods are proposed for constraining drift in the attitude solution; one through a novel integration of optical flow and the detection of the sky horizon, and the other through a loosely-coupled integration of Visual Odometry and GPS position measurements. In the first method, roll angle, pitch angle and the three aircraft body rates are recovered though a novel method of tracking the horizon over time and integrating the horizonderived attitude information with optical flow. An image processing front-end is used to select several candidate lines in a image that may or may not correspond to the true horizon, and the optical flow is calculated for each candidate line. Using an Extended Kalman Filter (EKF), the previously estimated aircraft state is propagated using a motion model and a candidate horizon line is associated using a statistical test based on the optical flow measurements and location of the horizon in the image. Once associated, the selected horizon line, along with the associated optical flow, is used as a measurement to the EKF. To evaluate the accuracy of the algorithm, two flights were conducted, one using a highly dynamic Uninhabited Airborne Vehicle (UAV) in clear flight conditions and the other in a human-piloted Cessna 172 in conditions where the horizon was partially obscured by terrain, haze and smoke. The UAV flight resulted in pitch and roll error standard deviations of 0.42° and 0.71° respectively when compared with a truth attitude source. The Cessna 172 flight resulted in pitch and roll error standard deviations of 1.79° and 1.75° respectively. In the second method for estimating attitude, a novel integrated GPS/Visual Odometry (GPS/VO) navigation filter is proposed, using a structure similar to a classic looselycoupled GPS/INS error-state navigation filter. Under such an arrangement, the error dynamics of the system are derived and a Kalman Filter is developed for estimating the errors in position and attitude. Through similar analysis to the GPS/INS problem, it is shown that the proposed filter is capable of recovering the complete attitude (i.e. pitch, roll and yaw) of the platform when subjected to acceleration not parallel to velocity for both the monocular and stereo variants of the filter. Furthermore, it is shown that under general straight line motion (e.g. constant velocity), only the component of attitude in the direction of motion is unobservable. Numerical simulations are performed to demonstrate the observability properties of the GPS/VO filter in both the monocular and stereo camera configurations. Furthermore, the proposed filter is tested on imagery collected using a Cessna 172 to demonstrate the observability properties on real-world data. The proposed GPS/VO filter does not require additional restrictions or assumptions such as platform-specific dynamics, map-matching, feature-tracking, visual loop-closing, gravity vector or additional sensors such as an IMU or magnetic compass. Since no platformspecific dynamics are required, the proposed filter is not limited to the aerospace domain and has the potential to be deployed in other platforms such as ground robots or mobile phones.