Integrating science through Bayesian Belief Networks : case study of Lyngbya in Moreton Bay

Bayesian Belief Networks (BBNs) are emerging as valuable tools for investigating complex ecological problems. In a BBN, the important variables in a problem are identified and causal relationships are represented graphically. Underpinning this is the probabilistic framework in which variables can take on a finite range of mutually exclusive states. Associated with each variable is a conditional probability table (CPT), showing the probability of a variable attaining each of its possible states conditioned on all possible combinations of it parents. Whilst the variables (nodes) are connected, the CPT attached to each node can be quantified independently. This allows each variable to be populated with the best data available, including expert opinion, simulation results or observed data. It also allows the information to be easily updated as better data become available ----- ----- This paper reports on the process of developing a BBN to better understand the initial rapid growth phase (initiation) of a marine cyanobacterium, Lyngbya majuscula, in Moreton Bay, Queensland. Anecdotal evidence suggests that Lyngbya blooms in this region have increased in severity and extent over the past decade. Lyngbya has been associated with acute dermatitis and a range of other health problems in humans. Blooms have been linked to ecosystem degradation and have also damaged commercial and recreational fisheries. However, the causes of blooms are as yet poorly understood.

Extending conceptual models for Web based applications

The next phase envisioned for the World Wide Web is automated ad-hoc interaction between intelligent agents, web services, databases and semantic web enabled applications. Although at present this appears to be a distant objective, there are practical steps that can be taken to advance the vision. We propose an extension to classical conceptual models to allow the definition of application components in terms of public standards and explicit semantics, thus building into web-based applications, the foundation for shared understanding and interoperability. The use of external definitions and the need to store outsourced type information internally, brings to light the issue of object identity in a global environment, where object instances may be identified by multiple externally controlled identification schemes. We illustrate how traditional conceptual models may be augmented to recognise and deal with multiple identities.