Latitudinal and seasonal effects on growth of the Australian eastern king prawn (Melicertus plebejus)

The growth of the Australian eastern king prawn (Melicertus plebejus) is understood in greater detail by quantifying the latitudinal effect. The latitudinal effect is the change in the species' growth rate during migration. Mark-recapture data (N = 1635, latitude 22.21 degrees S-34.00 degrees S) presents northerly movement of the eastern king prawn, with New South Wales prawns showing substantial average movement of 140 km (standard deviation: 176 km) north. A generalized von Bertalanffy growth model framework is used to incorporate the latitudinal effect together with the canonical seasonal effect. Applying this method to eastern king prawn mark-recapture data guarantees consistent estimates for the latitudinal and seasonal effects. For M. plebejus, it was found that growth rate peaks on 25 and 29 January for males and females, respectively; is at a minimum on 27 and 31 July, respectively; and that the shape parameter, k (per year), changes by -0.0236 and -0.0556 every 1 degree of latitude south increase for males and females, respectively.

Optimal designs for evaluating a series of treatments

Several articles in this journal have studied optimal designs for testing a series of treatments to identify promising ones for further study. These designs formulate testing as an ongoing process until a promising treatment is identified. This formulation is considered to be more realistic but substantially increases the computational complexity. In this article, we show that these new designs, which control the error rates for a series of treatments, can be reformulated as conventional designs that control the error rates for each individual treatment. This reformulation leads to a more meaningful interpretation of the error rates and hence easier specification of the error rates in practice. The reformulation also allows us to use conventional designs from published tables or standard computer programs to design trials for a series of treatments. We illustrate these using a study in soft tissue sarcoma.

Book Review: "Tony Kanellos (editor), Out of the Past: views of the Adelaide Botanic Gardens - a Series of Edwardian Era Postcards"

The extended title for this splendid visual feast is a catalogue to accompany the exhibition Postcards from the Edge of the City at the Santos Museum ofE conomic Botany, 9 December 2014 to 26 April 2015. As a catalogue this book contains the from and back sides of 300 postcards published between 1900 and 1917...

Remember or Revive: Alice Payne and the Gold Coast and Hinterland Historical Society

In this creative practice work, designer Alice Payne examines the history of twentieth century Queensland fashion icon Paula Stafford, and interprets her story into an illustrated narrative and textile print. Paula Stafford was a swimwear designer operating in the Gold Coast, Queensland Australia 1940s to 1980s, and is credited with bringing the bikini to Australia. This project was commissioned by The Fashion Archives as part of their series Remember or Revive, in which the curators partnered designers with museums to reinterpret historical costume for a contemporary fashion audience. To develop the project, Payne visited The Gold Coast and Hinterland Historical Society to view Paula Stafford’s swimwear, resortwear, photographs, newspaper articles, fabric swatches and other artefacts relating to Stafford’s practice. Through examining Stafford’s work and history, Payne developed a series of designs based on the story and the experience of viewing and handling the garments. Research statement Fashion history is often experienced via static museum displays of garments and photographs from the period, and this research examines other means through which the archive and the fashion museum collection may be reinterpreted and made fresh. It does this in two ways: first, the work interprets a story from fashion history for a contemporary audience. Second, the project illuminates the fashion design process by demonstrating how garments from the past may be reinterpreted to inspire contemporary textile prints. The Paula Stafford collection at The Gold Coast and Hinterland Historical Society has a number of garments and photographs on display, however these only show a partial picture of the richness of Stafford’s work and legacy. Undertaking a practice-led methodology, in the course of developing the work, Payne examined the archive in order to interpret Stafford’s contribution to Queensland fashion through photography, narrative, and illustration. The work contributes to research into historical fashion curation and interpretation. The work appeared in Issue 11, March 2014 of the The Fashion Archives, an online publication by fashion curators Nadia Buick and Madeline King. The Fashion Archives has received funding from Arts Queensland, State Library Queensland and Creative Partnerships Australia and has published over 200 articles and projects related to Queensland Style. The Fashion Archives is the first project to examine in depth Queensland fashion history. As Paula Stafford is one of Queensland’s most iconic designers, this project is significant in being the first to examine her legacy through creative practice. The Fashion Archives was established in 2013 and involvement is by invitation from the curators.

Parameterizing Unconditional Skewness in Models for Financial Time Series

In this paper we consider the third-moment structure of a class of time series models. It is often argued that the marginal distribution of financial time series such as returns is skewed. Therefore it is of importance to know what properties a model should possess if it is to accommodate unconditional skewness. We consider modeling the unconditional mean and variance using models that respond nonlinearly or asymmetrically to shocks. We investigate the implications of these models on the third-moment structure of the marginal distribution as well as conditions under which the unconditional distribution exhibits skewness and nonzero third-order autocovariance structure. In this respect, an asymmetric or nonlinear specification of the conditional mean is found to be of greater importance than the properties of the conditional variance. Several examples are discussed and, whenever possible, explicit analytical expressions provided for all third-order moments and cross-moments. Finally, we introduce a new tool, the shock impact curve, for investigating the impact of shocks on the conditional mean squared error of return series.

Anticipating Chinese Tourists Arrivals in Australia: A Time Series Analysis

Given the growing importance of the Chinese tourist market to Australia, an understanding of Chinese tourists' arrival patterns is essential to accurate forecasting of future arrivals. Drawing on 25 years of records (1991-2015), this study developed a time-series model of monthly arrivals of Chinese tourists in Australia. The model reflects the exponentially increasing trend and strong seasonality of arrivals. Excellent results from validation of the model's forecasts endorsed this time-series model's potential in the policy prescription and management practice of Australian tourism industries.

Oh Holly, The Fish is Dead

From Kurt Vonnegut to Stephen King, many novelists use metanarrative techniques to insert fictional versions of themselves in the stories they tell. The function of deploying such techniques is often to draw attention to the liminal space between the fictional constructs inherent in the novel as a form, and the real world from which the constructs draw inspiration, and indeed, are read by an audience. For emerging writers working in short form narratives, however, the structural demands of the short story or flash fiction make the use of similar techniques problematic in the level of depth to which they can be deployed. ‘Oh Holly, the fish is dead’ is the fourth in a series of short stories that work to overcome the structural limitations of a succinct form by developing a fractured fictional version of the author over a number of pieces and published across a range of sites. The accumulative affect is a richer metanarrative textual arrangement that also allows for the individual short stories to function independently.

Swing Low

From Kurt Vonnegut to Stephen King, many novelists use metanarrative techniques to insert fictional versions of themselves in the stories they tell. The function of deploying such techniques is often to draw attention to the liminal space between the fictional constructs inherent in the novel as a form, and the real world from which the constructs draw inspiration, and indeed, are read by an audience. For emerging writers working in short form narratives, however, the structural demands of the short story or flash fiction make the use of similar techniques problematic in the level of depth to which they can be deployed. ‘Swing Low’ is the fifth in a series of short stories that work to overcome the structural limitations of a succinct form by developing a fractured fictional version of the author over a number of pieces and published across a range of sites. The accumulative affect is a richer metanarrative textual arrangement that also allows for the individual short stories to function independently.

Eating the Lonesome

From Kurt Vonnegut to Stephen King, many novelists use metanarrative techniques to insert fictional versions of themselves in the stories they tell. The function of deploying such techniques is often to draw attention to the liminal space between the fictional constructs inherent in the novel as a form, and the real world from which the constructs draw inspiration, and indeed, are read by an audience. For emerging writers working in short form narratives, however, the structural demands of the short story or flash fiction make the use of similar techniques problematic in the level of depth to which they can be deployed. ‘Eating The Lonesome’ is the sixth in a series of short stories that work to overcome the structural limitations of a succinct form by developing a fractured fictional version of the author over a number of pieces and published across a range of sites. The accumulative affect is a richer metanarrative textual arrangement that also allows for the individual short stories to function independently.

Clancestry Conversation Series

The Clancestry Conversation series forms part of QPAC's Clancestry Festival which is an annual celebration of the arts and cultural practices of the world's First Nations Peoples with a particular focus on Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander peoples.

Forecasting day-ahead electricity load using a multiple equation time series approach

The quality of short-term electricity load forecasting is crucial to the operation and trading activities of market participants in an electricity market. In this paper, it is shown that a multiple equation time-series model, which is estimated by repeated application of ordinary least squares, has the potential to match or even outperform more complex nonlinear and nonparametric forecasting models. The key ingredient of the success of this simple model is the effective use of lagged information by allowing for interaction between seasonal patterns and intra-day dependencies. Although the model is built using data for the Queensland region of Australia, the method is completely generic and applicable to any load forecasting problem. The model’s forecasting ability is assessed by means of the mean absolute percentage error (MAPE). For day-ahead forecast, the MAPE returned by the model over a period of 11 years is an impressive 1.36%. The forecast accuracy of the model is compared with a number of benchmarks including three popular alternatives and one industrial standard reported by the Australia Energy Market Operator (AEMO). The performance of the model developed in this paper is superior to all benchmarks and outperforms the AEMO forecasts by about a third in terms of the MAPE criterion.