A cross-discipline and collaborative approach to identifying the predictors of environmentally friendly and health protective behaviour

Background. As a society, our interaction with the environment is having a negative impact on human health. For example, an increase in car use for short trips, over walking or cycling, has contributed to an increase in obesity, diabetes and poor heart health and also contributes to pollution, which is associated with asthma and other respiratory diseases. In order to change the nature of that interaction, to be more positive and healthy, it is recommended that individuals adopt a range of environmentally friendly behaviours (such as walking for transport and reducing the use of plastics). Effective interventions aimed at increasing such behaviours will need to be evidence based and there is a need for the rapid communication of information from the point of research, into policy and practice. Further, a number of health disciplines, including psychology and public health, share a common mission to promote health and well-being. Therefore, the objective of this project is to take a cross-discipline and collaborative approach to reveal psychological mechanisms driving environmentally friendly behaviour. This objective is further divided into three broad aims, the first of which is to take a cross-discipline and collaborative approach to research. The second aim is to explore and identify the salient beliefs which most strongly predict environmentally friendly behaviour. The third aim is to build an augmented model to explain environmentally friendly behaviour. The thesis builds on the understanding that an interdisciplinary collaborative approach will facilitate the rapid transfer of knowledge to inform behaviour change interventions. Methods. The application of this approach involved two surveys which explored the psycho-social predictors of environmentally friendly behaviour. Following a qualitative pilot study, and in collaboration with an expert panel comprising academics, industry professionals and government representatives, a self-administered, Theory of Planned Behaviour (TPB) based, mail survey was distributed to a random sample of 3000 residents of Brisbane and Moreton Bay Region (Queensland, Australia). This survey explored specific beliefs including attitudes, norms, perceived control, intention and behaviour, as well as environmental altruism and green identity, in relation to walking for transport and switching off lights when not in use. Following analysis of the mail survey data and based on feedback from participants and key stakeholders, an internet survey was employed (N=451) to explore two additional behaviours, switching off appliances at the wall when not in use, and shopping with reusable bags. This work is presented as a series of interrelated publications which address each of the research aims. Presentation of Findings. Chapter five of this thesis consists of a published paper which addresses the first aim of the research and outlines the collaborative and multidisciplinary approach employed in the mail survey. The paper argued that forging alliances with those who are in a position to immediately utilise the findings of research has the potential to improve the quality and timely communication of research. Illustrating this timely communication, Chapter six comprises a report presented to Moreton Bay Regional Council (MBRC). This report addresses aim's one and two. The report contains a summary of participation in a range of environmentally friendly behaviours and identifies the beliefs which most strongly predicted walking for transport and switching off lights (from the mail survey). These salient beliefs were then recommended as targets for interventions and included: participants believing that they might save money; that their neighbours also switch off lights; that it would be inconvenient to walk for transport and that their closest friend also walks for transport. Chapter seven also addresses the second aim and presents a published conference paper in which the salient beliefs predicting the four specified behaviours (from both surveys) are identified and potential applications for intervention are discussed. Again, a range of TPB based beliefs, including descriptive normative beliefs, were predictive of environmentally friendly behaviour. This paper was also provided to MBRC, along with recommendations for applying the findings. For example, as descriptive normative beliefs were consistently correlated with environmentally friendly behaviour, local councils could engage in marketing and interventions (workshops, letter box drops, internet promotions) which encourage parents and friends to model, rather than simply encourage, environmentally friendly behaviour. The final two papers, presented in Chapters eight and nine, addresses the third aim of the project. These papers each present two behaviours together to inform a TPB based theoretical model with which to predict environmentally friendly behaviour. A generalised model is presented, which is found to predict the four specific behaviours under investigation. The role of demographics was explored across each of the behaviour specific models. It was found that some behaviour's differ by age, gender, income or education. In particular, adjusted models predicted more of the variance in walking for transport amongst younger participants and females. Adjusted models predicted more variance in switching off lights amongst those with a bachelor degree or higher and predicted more variance in switching off appliances amongst those on a higher income. Adjusted models predicted more variance in shopping with reusable bags for males, people 40 years or older, those on a higher income and those with a bachelor degree or higher. However, model structure and general predictability was relatively consistent overall. The models provide a general theoretical framework from which to better understand the motives and predictors of environmentally friendly behaviour. Conclusion. This research has provided an example of the benefits of a collaborative interdisciplinary approach. It has identified a number of salient beliefs which can be targeted for social marketing campaigns and educational initiatives; and these findings, along with recommendations, have been passed on to a local council to be used as part of their ongoing community engagement programs. Finally, the research has informed a practical model, as well as behaviour specific models, for predicting sustainable living behaviours. Such models can highlight important core constructs from which targeted interventions can be designed. Therefore, this research represents an important step in undertaking collaborative approaches to improving population health through human-environment interactions.

Behaviour and design of crest-fixed profiled steel roof claddings under wind uplift

Profiled steel roof claddings in Australia are commonly made of very thin high tensile steel and are crest-fixed with screw fasteners. At present the design of these claddings is entirely based on testing. In order to improve the understanding of the behaviour of these claddings under wind uplift, and thus the design methods, a detailed investigation consisting of a finite element analysis and laboratory experiments was carried out on two-span roofing assemblies of three common roofing profiles. It was found that the failure of the roof cladding system was due to a local failure (dimpling of crests/pull-through) at the fasteners. This paper presents the details of the investigation, the results and then proposes a design method based on the strength of the screwed connections, for which testing of small-scale roofing models and/or using a simple design formula is recommended.

A Bayesian network approach to modelling temporal behaviour of Lyngbya majuscula bloom initiation

Lyngbya majuscula is a cyanobacterium (blue-green algae) occurring naturally in tropical and subtropical coastal areas worldwide. Deception Bay, in Northern Moreton Bay, Queensland, has a history of Lyngbya blooms, and forms a case study for this investigation. The South East Queensland (SEQ) Healthy Waterways Partnership, collaboration between government, industry, research and the community, was formed to address issues affecting the health of the river catchments and waterways of South East Queensland. The Partnership coordinated the Lyngbya Research and Management Program (2005-2007) which culminated in a Coastal Algal Blooms (CAB) Action Plan for harmful and nuisance algal blooms, such as Lyngbya majuscula. This first phase of the project was predominantly of a scientific nature and also facilitated the collection of additional data to better understand Lyngbya blooms. The second phase of this project, SEQ Healthy Waterways Strategy 2007-2012, is now underway to implement the CAB Action Plan and as such is more management focussed. As part of the first phase of the project, a Science model for the initiation of a Lyngbya bloom was built using Bayesian Networks (BN). The structure of the Science Bayesian Network was built by the Lyngbya Science Working Group (LSWG) which was drawn from diverse disciplines. The BN was then quantified with annual data and expert knowledge. Scenario testing confirmed the expected temporal nature of bloom initiation and it was recommended that the next version of the BN be extended to take this into account. Elicitation for this BN thus occurred at three levels: design, quantification and verification. The first level involved construction of the conceptual model itself, definition of the nodes within the model and identification of sources of information to quantify the nodes. The second level included elicitation of expert opinion and representation of this information in a form suitable for inclusion in the BN. The third and final level concerned the specification of scenarios used to verify the model. The second phase of the project provides the opportunity to update the network with the newly collected detailed data obtained during the previous phase of the project. Specifically the temporal nature of Lyngbya blooms is of interest. Management efforts need to be directed to the most vulnerable periods to bloom initiation in the Bay. To model the temporal aspects of Lyngbya we are using Object Oriented Bayesian networks (OOBN) to create ‘time slices’ for each of the periods of interest during the summer. OOBNs provide a framework to simplify knowledge representation and facilitate reuse of nodes and network fragments. An OOBN is more hierarchical than a traditional BN with any sub-network able to contain other sub-networks. Connectivity between OOBNs is an important feature and allows information flow between the time slices. This study demonstrates more sophisticated use of expert information within Bayesian networks, which combine expert knowledge with data (categorized using expert-defined thresholds) within an expert-defined model structure. Based on the results from the verification process the experts are able to target areas requiring greater precision and those exhibiting temporal behaviour. The time slices incorporate the data for that time period for each of the temporal nodes (instead of using the annual data from the previous static Science BN) and include lag effects to allow the effect from one time slice to flow to the next time slice. We demonstrate a concurrent steady increase in the probability of initiation of a Lyngbya bloom and conclude that the inclusion of temporal aspects in the BN model is consistent with the perceptions of Lyngbya behaviour held by the stakeholders. This extended model provides a more accurate representation of the increased risk of algal blooms in the summer months and show that the opinions elicited to inform a static BN can be readily extended to a dynamic OOBN, providing more comprehensive information for decision makers.

An evaluation of different features and learning models for anomalous event detection

The huge amount of CCTV footage available makes it very burdensome to process these videos manually through human operators. This has made automated processing of video footage through computer vision technologies necessary. During the past several years, there has been a large effort to detect abnormal activities through computer vision techniques. Typically, the problem is formulated as a novelty detection task where the system is trained on normal data and is required to detect events which do not fit the learned ‘normal’ model. There is no precise and exact definition for an abnormal activity; it is dependent on the context of the scene. Hence there is a requirement for different feature sets to detect different kinds of abnormal activities. In this work we evaluate the performance of different state of the art features to detect the presence of the abnormal objects in the scene. These include optical flow vectors to detect motion related anomalies, textures of optical flow and image textures to detect the presence of abnormal objects. These extracted features in different combinations are modeled using different state of the art models such as Gaussian mixture model(GMM) and Semi- 2D Hidden Markov model(HMM) to analyse the performances. Further we apply perspective normalization to the extracted features to compensate for perspective distortion due to the distance between the camera and objects of consideration. The proposed approach is evaluated using the publicly available UCSD datasets and we demonstrate improved performance compared to other state of the art methods.

Towards training-free appearance-based localization : probabilistic models for whole-image descriptors

Whole image descriptors have recently been shown to be remarkably robust to perceptual change especially compared to local features. However, whole-image-based localization systems typically rely on heuristic methods for determining appropriate matching thresholds in a particular environment. These environment-specific tuning requirements and the lack of a meaningful interpretation of these arbitrary thresholds limits the general applicability of these systems. In this paper we present a Bayesian model of probability for whole-image descriptors that can be seamlessly integrated into localization systems designed for probabilistic visual input. We demonstrate this method using CAT-Graph, an appearance-based visual localization system originally designed for a FAB-MAP-style probabilistic input. We show that using whole-image descriptors as visual input extends CAT-Graph’s functionality to environments that experience a greater amount of perceptual change. We also present a method of estimating whole-image probability models in an online manner, removing the need for a prior training phase. We show that this online, automated training method can perform comparably to pre-trained, manually tuned local descriptor methods.

A Bayesian regression approach to assess uncertainty in pollutant wash-off modelling

Due to knowledge gaps in relation to urban stormwater quality processes, an in-depth understanding of model uncertainty can enhance decision making. Uncertainty in stormwater quality models can originate from a range of sources such as the complexity of urban rainfall-runoff-stormwater pollutant processes and the paucity of observed data. Unfortunately, studies relating to epistemic uncertainty, which arises from the simplification of reality are limited and often deemed mostly unquantifiable. This paper presents a statistical modelling framework for ascertaining epistemic uncertainty associated with pollutant wash-off under a regression modelling paradigm using Ordinary Least Squares Regression (OLSR) and Weighted Least Squares Regression (WLSR) methods with a Bayesian/Gibbs sampling statistical approach. The study results confirmed that WLSR assuming probability distributed data provides more realistic uncertainty estimates of the observed and predicted wash-off values compared to OLSR modelling. It was also noted that the Bayesian/Gibbs sampling approach is superior compared to the most commonly adopted classical statistical and deterministic approaches commonly used in water quality modelling. The study outcomes confirmed that the predication error associated with wash-off replication is relatively higher due to limited data availability. The uncertainty analysis also highlighted the variability of the wash-off modelling coefficient k as a function of complex physical processes, which is primarily influenced by surface characteristics and rainfall intensity.

Approximate Bayesian computation using auxiliary model based estimates

We present a novel approach for developing summary statistics for use in approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) algorithms using indirect infer- ence. We embed this approach within a sequential Monte Carlo algorithm that is completely adaptive. This methodological development was motivated by an application involving data on macroparasite population evolution modelled with a trivariate Markov process. The main objective of the analysis is to compare inferences on the Markov process when considering two di®erent indirect mod- els. The two indirect models are based on a Beta-Binomial model and a three component mixture of Binomials, with the former providing a better ¯t to the observed data.

Joint identification of infinite-frequency added mass and fluid-memory models of marine structures

This paper addresses the problem of joint identification of infinite-frequency added mass and fluid memory models of marine structures from finite frequency data. This problem is relevant for cases where the code used to compute the hydrodynamic coefficients of the marine structure does not give the infinite-frequency added mass. This case is typical of codes based on 2D-potential theory since most 3D-potential-theory codes solve the boundary value associated with the infinite frequency. The method proposed in this paper presents a simpler alternative approach to other methods previously presented in the literature. The advantage of the proposed method is that the same identification procedure can be used to identify the fluid-memory models with or without having access to the infinite-frequency added mass coefficient. Therefore, it provides an extension that puts the two identification problems into the same framework. The method also exploits the constraints related to relative degree and low-frequency asymptotic values of the hydrodynamic coefficients derived from the physics of the problem, which are used as prior information to refine the obtained models.

Discrete phase-locked loop systems and spreadsheets

This paper demonstrates the use of a spreadsheet in exploring non-linear difference equations that describe digital control systems used in radio engineering, communication and computer architecture. These systems, being the focus of intensive studies of mathematicians and engineers over the last 40 years, may exhibit extremely complicated behaviour interpreted in contemporary terms as transition from global asymptotic stability to chaos through period-doubling bifurcations. The authors argue that embedding advanced mathematical ideas in the technological tool enables one to introduce fundamentals of discrete control systems in tertiary curricula without learners having to deal with complex machinery that rigorous mathematical methods of investigation require. In particular, in the appropriately designed spreadsheet environment, one can effectively visualize a qualitative difference in the behviour of systems with different types of non-linear characteristic.

A review of modern computational algorithms for Bayesian optimal design

Bayesian experimental design is a fast growing area of research with many real-world applications. As computational power has increased over the years, so has the development of simulation-based design methods, which involve a number of algorithms, such as Markov chain Monte Carlo, sequential Monte Carlo and approximate Bayes methods, facilitating more complex design problems to be solved. The Bayesian framework provides a unified approach for incorporating prior information and/or uncertainties regarding the statistical model with a utility function which describes the experimental aims. In this paper, we provide a general overview on the concepts involved in Bayesian experimental design, and focus on describing some of the more commonly used Bayesian utility functions and methods for their estimation, as well as a number of algorithms that are used to search over the design space to find the Bayesian optimal design. We also discuss other computational strategies for further research in Bayesian optimal design.

Cost efficiency of Japanese steam power generation companies : a Bayesian comparison of random and fixed frontier models

This study analyses and compares the cost efficiency of Japanese steam power generation companies using the fixed and random Bayesian frontier models. We show that it is essential to account for heterogeneity in modelling the performance of energy companies. Results from the model estimation also indicate that restricting CO2 emissions can lead to a decrease in total cost. The study finally discusses the efficiency variations between the energy companies under analysis, and elaborates on the managerial and policy implications of the results.

Bayesian models for spatio-temporal assessment of disease

This thesis has contributed to the advancement of knowledge in disease modelling by addressing interesting and crucial issues relevant to modelling health data over space and time. The research has led to the increased understanding of spatial scales, temporal scales, and spatial smoothing for modelling diseases, in terms of their methodology and applications. This research is of particular significance to researchers seeking to employ statistical modelling techniques over space and time in various disciplines. A broad class of statistical models are employed to assess what impact of spatial and temporal scales have on simulated and real data.

Agent-based modelling of aircraft boarding methods

We implemented six different boarding strategies (Wilma, Steffen, Reverse Pyramid, Random, Blocks and By letter) in order to investigate boarding times for Boeing 777 and Airbus 380 aircraft. We also introduce three new boarding methods to find the optimum boarding strategy. Our models explicitly simulate the behaviour of groups of people travelling together and we explicitly simulate the timing to store their luggage as part of the boarding process. Results from the simulation demonstrates the Reverse Pyramid method is the best boarding method for Boeing 777, and the Steffen method is the best boarding method for Airbus 380. For the new suggested boarding methods, aisle first boarding method is the best boarding strategy for Boeing 777 and row arrangement method is the best boarding strategy for Airbus 380. Overall best boarding strategy is aisle first boarding method for Boeing 777 and Steffen method for Airbus 380.

Bayesian hierarchical models for analysing spatial point-based data at a grid level: A comparison of approaches

Spatial data are now prevalent in a wide range of fields including environmental and health science. This has led to the development of a range of approaches for analysing patterns in these data. In this paper, we compare several Bayesian hierarchical models for analysing point-based data based on the discretization of the study region, resulting in grid-based spatial data. The approaches considered include two parametric models and a semiparametric model. We highlight the methodology and computation for each approach. Two simulation studies are undertaken to compare the performance of these models for various structures of simulated point-based data which resemble environmental data. A case study of a real dataset is also conducted to demonstrate a practical application of the modelling approaches. Goodness-of-fit statistics are computed to compare estimates of the intensity functions. The deviance information criterion is also considered as an alternative model evaluation criterion. The results suggest that the adaptive Gaussian Markov random field model performs well for highly sparse point-based data where there are large variations or clustering across the space; whereas the discretized log Gaussian Cox process produces good fit in dense and clustered point-based data. One should generally consider the nature and structure of the point-based data in order to choose the appropriate method in modelling a discretized spatial point-based data.

An evaluation of crowd counting methods, features and regression models

Existing crowd counting algorithms rely on holistic, local or histogram based features to capture crowd properties. Regression is then employed to estimate the crowd size. Insufficient testing across multiple datasets has made it difficult to compare and contrast different methodologies. This paper presents an evaluation across multiple datasets to compare holistic, local and histogram based methods, and to compare various image features and regression models. A K-fold cross validation protocol is followed to evaluate the performance across five public datasets: UCSD, PETS 2009, Fudan, Mall and Grand Central datasets. Image features are categorised into five types: size, shape, edges, keypoints and textures. The regression models evaluated are: Gaussian process regression (GPR), linear regression, K nearest neighbours (KNN) and neural networks (NN). The results demonstrate that local features outperform equivalent holistic and histogram based features; optimal performance is observed using all image features except for textures; and that GPR outperforms linear, KNN and NN regression