Global, regional, and national disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) for 306 diseases and injuries and healthy life expectancy (HALE) for 188 countries, 1990–2013: Quantifying the epidemiological transition

Background The Global Burden of Disease Study 2013 (GBD 2013) aims to bring together all available epidemiological data using a coherent measurement framework, standardised estimation methods, and transparent data sources to enable comparisons of health loss over time and across causes, age–sex groups, and countries. The GBD can be used to generate summary measures such as disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) and healthy life expectancy (HALE) that make possible comparative assessments of broad epidemiological patterns across countries and time. These summary measures can also be used to quantify the component of variation in epidemiology that is related to sociodemographic development. Methods We used the published GBD 2013 data for age-specific mortality, years of life lost due to premature mortality (YLLs), and years lived with disability (YLDs) to calculate DALYs and HALE for 1990, 1995, 2000, 2005, 2010, and 2013 for 188 countries. We calculated HALE using the Sullivan method; 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) represent uncertainty in age-specific death rates and YLDs per person for each country, age, sex, and year. We estimated DALYs for 306 causes for each country as the sum of YLLs and YLDs; 95% UIs represent uncertainty in YLL and YLD rates. We quantified patterns of the epidemiological transition with a composite indicator of sociodemographic status, which we constructed from income per person, average years of schooling after age 15 years, and the total fertility rate and mean age of the population. We applied hierarchical regression to DALY rates by cause across countries to decompose variance related to the sociodemographic status variable, country, and time. Findings Worldwide, from 1990 to 2013, life expectancy at birth rose by 6·2 years (95% UI 5·6–6·6), from 65·3 years (65·0–65·6) in 1990 to 71·5 years (71·0–71·9) in 2013, HALE at birth rose by 5·4 years (4·9–5·8), from 56·9 years (54·5–59·1) to 62·3 years (59·7–64·8), total DALYs fell by 3·6% (0·3–7·4), and age-standardised DALY rates per 100 000 people fell by 26·7% (24·6–29·1). For communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional disorders, global DALY numbers, crude rates, and age-standardised rates have all declined between 1990 and 2013, whereas for non–communicable diseases, global DALYs have been increasing, DALY rates have remained nearly constant, and age-standardised DALY rates declined during the same period. From 2005 to 2013, the number of DALYs increased for most specific non-communicable diseases, including cardiovascular diseases and neoplasms, in addition to dengue, food-borne trematodes, and leishmaniasis; DALYs decreased for nearly all other causes. By 2013, the five leading causes of DALYs were ischaemic heart disease, lower respiratory infections, cerebrovascular disease, low back and neck pain, and road injuries. Sociodemographic status explained more than 50% of the variance between countries and over time for diarrhoea, lower respiratory infections, and other common infectious diseases; maternal disorders; neonatal disorders; nutritional deficiencies; other communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional diseases; musculoskeletal disorders; and other non-communicable diseases. However, sociodemographic status explained less than 10% of the variance in DALY rates for cardiovascular diseases; chronic respiratory diseases; cirrhosis; diabetes, urogenital, blood, and endocrine diseases; unintentional injuries; and self-harm and interpersonal violence. Predictably, increased sociodemographic status was associated with a shift in burden from YLLs to YLDs, driven by declines in YLLs and increases in YLDs from musculoskeletal disorders, neurological disorders, and mental and substance use disorders. In most country-specific estimates, the increase in life expectancy was greater than that in HALE. Leading causes of DALYs are highly variable across countries. Interpretation Global health is improving. Population growth and ageing have driven up numbers of DALYs, but crude rates have remained relatively constant, showing that progress in health does not mean fewer demands on health systems. The notion of an epidemiological transition—in which increasing sociodemographic status brings structured change in disease burden—is useful, but there is tremendous variation in burden of disease that is not associated with sociodemographic status. This further underscores the need for country-specific assessments of DALYs and HALE to appropriately inform health policy decisions and attendant actions.

Global, regional, and national comparative risk assessment of 79 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks in 188 countries, 1990–2013: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013

Background The Global Burden of Disease, Injuries, and Risk Factor study 2013 (GBD 2013) is the first of a series of annual updates of the GBD. Risk factor quantification, particularly of modifiable risk factors, can help to identify emerging threats to population health and opportunities for prevention. The GBD 2013 provides a timely opportunity to update the comparative risk assessment with new data for exposure, relative risks, and evidence on the appropriate counterfactual risk distribution. Methods Attributable deaths, years of life lost, years lived with disability, and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) have been estimated for 79 risks or clusters of risks using the GBD 2010 methods. Risk–outcome pairs meeting explicit evidence criteria were assessed for 188 countries for the period 1990–2013 by age and sex using three inputs: risk exposure, relative risks, and the theoretical minimum risk exposure level (TMREL). Risks are organised into a hierarchy with blocks of behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks at the first level of the hierarchy. The next level in the hierarchy includes nine clusters of related risks and two individual risks, with more detail provided at levels 3 and 4 of the hierarchy. Compared with GBD 2010, six new risk factors have been added: handwashing practices, occupational exposure to trichloroethylene, childhood wasting, childhood stunting, unsafe sex, and low glomerular filtration rate. For most risks, data for exposure were synthesised with a Bayesian meta-regression method, DisMod-MR 2.0, or spatial-temporal Gaussian process regression. Relative risks were based on meta-regressions of published cohort and intervention studies. Attributable burden for clusters of risks and all risks combined took into account evidence on the mediation of some risks such as high body-mass index (BMI) through other risks such as high systolic blood pressure and high cholesterol. Findings All risks combined account for 57·2% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 55·8–58·5) of deaths and 41·6% (40·1–43·0) of DALYs. Risks quantified account for 87·9% (86·5–89·3) of cardiovascular disease DALYs, ranging to a low of 0% for neonatal disorders and neglected tropical diseases and malaria. In terms of global DALYs in 2013, six risks or clusters of risks each caused more than 5% of DALYs: dietary risks accounting for 11·3 million deaths and 241·4 million DALYs, high systolic blood pressure for 10·4 million deaths and 208·1 million DALYs, child and maternal malnutrition for 1·7 million deaths and 176·9 million DALYs, tobacco smoke for 6·1 million deaths and 143·5 million DALYs, air pollution for 5·5 million deaths and 141·5 million DALYs, and high BMI for 4·4 million deaths and 134·0 million DALYs. Risk factor patterns vary across regions and countries and with time. In sub-Saharan Africa, the leading risk factors are child and maternal malnutrition, unsafe sex, and unsafe water, sanitation, and handwashing. In women, in nearly all countries in the Americas, north Africa, and the Middle East, and in many other high-income countries, high BMI is the leading risk factor, with high systolic blood pressure as the leading risk in most of Central and Eastern Europe and south and east Asia. For men, high systolic blood pressure or tobacco use are the leading risks in nearly all high-income countries, in north Africa and the Middle East, Europe, and Asia. For men and women, unsafe sex is the leading risk in a corridor from Kenya to South Africa. Interpretation Behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks can explain half of global mortality and more than one-third of global DALYs providing many opportunities for prevention. Of the larger risks, the attributable burden of high BMI has increased in the past 23 years. In view of the prominence of behavioural risk factors, behavioural and social science research on interventions for these risks should be strengthened. Many prevention and primary care policy options are available now to act on key risks.

Integrating ePsychology into practice and research: A guide for early career psychologists

The ever expanding availability of technology-based mental health services and resources has opened up new areas of psychological practice and research. There are many reasons to embrace this technology movement, whether specialising in providing e-mental health services, conducting research on e-mental health or using technology to assist you in your work in other fields of psychology. e-mental health services not only offer more treatment choices for clients but they provide health professionals with an array of free and comprehensive resources that can help streamline their face-to-face work. This growth in ePsychology (the application of e-mental health by psychologists) also opens up an exciting range of research and teaching possibilities. In this article we cover what ePsychology can offer the early career psychologist.

The con-stitutional re-cognition (s)cam-pain: The campaign for the hidden recognition of first nations peoples' racial inferiority

The constitutional recognition campaign has received party-wide support and its efforts have been promoted by Prime Minister Tony Abbott as being something that would ‘complete our Constitution.’ The broader rhetoric surrounding this campaign suggests that it will result in a just, albeit delayed, recognition of indigenous peoples in the Australian legal system. However, beneath the surface of this seemingly benevolent gesture, is a reaffirmation of the colonial subordination and erasure of the several hundred original nations’ peoples and ways of being.

Small nerve fiber quantification in the diagnosis of diabetic sensorimotor polyneuropathy: Comparing corneal confocal microscopy with intraepidermal nerve fiber density

OBJECTIVE Quantitative assessment of small fiber damage is key to the early diagnosis and assessment of progression or regression of diabetic sensorimotor polyneuropathy (DSPN). Intraepidermal nerve fiber density (IENFD) is the current gold standard, but corneal confocal microscopy (CCM), an in vivo ophthalmic imaging modality, has the potential to be a noninvasive and objective image biomarker for identifying small fiber damage. The purpose of this study was to determine the diagnostic performance of CCM and IENFD by using the current guidelines as the reference standard. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS Eighty-nine subjects (26 control subjects and 63 patients with type 1 diabetes), with and without DSPN, underwent a detailed assessment of neuropathy, including CCM and skin biopsy. RESULTS Manual and automated corneal nerve fiber density (CNFD) (P < 0.0001), branch density (CNBD) (P < 0.0001) and length (CNFL) (P < 0.0001), and IENFD (P < 0.001) were significantly reduced in patients with diabetes with DSPN compared with control subjects. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve for identifying DSPN was 0.82 for manual CNFD, 0.80 for automated CNFD, and 0.66 for IENFD, which did not differ significantly (P = 0.14). CONCLUSIONS This study shows comparable diagnostic efficiency between CCM and IENFD, providing further support for the clinical utility of CCM as a surrogate end point for DSPN.

Documenting the inevitable: Voting behaviour at the 2013 Australian election

This chapter uses data from the 2013 Australian Election Study (AES), conducted by Clive Bean, Ian McAllister, Juliet Pietsch and Rachel Gibson (Bean et al. 2014) to investigate political attitudes and voting behaviour in the election. The study was funded by the Australian Research Council and involved a national survey of political attitudes and behaviour using a self-completion questionnaire mailed to respondents on the day before the 7 September election. The sample was a systematic random sample of enrolled voters throughout Australia, drawn by the Australian Electoral Commission. Respondents were given the option of returning the completed questionnaire by reply-paid mail or completing the survey online. Non-respondents were sent several follow-up mailings and the final sample size was 3955, representing a response rate of 34 per cent. The data were weighted to reflect population parameters for gender, age, state and vote.

The impact of Indigenous Community sports programs: The case of surfing

The objective of this research project was to consider the social impact of sport and physical activity on the lives of Indigenous Australians and their communities. There has been strong research interest in the links between sport and recreation programs and various health and social outcomes and a well-established body of literature exists on the use of sport to address social issues in mainstream society (A Thomson, Darcy and Pearce 2010). The consensus is that physical activity is an important contributor to health for all people (Nelson, Abbott and Macdonald 2010). While there is strong research interest, what remains unclear is the value and impact of sport and physical activity on Indigenous communities (Cairnduff 2001). Nelson (2009) drawing on the work of Jonas and Langton (1994) indicates that an ‘Aboriginal person is a descendant of an Indigenous inhabitant of Australia, identifi es as an Aboriginal, and is recognised as Aboriginal by members of the community in which he or she lives’ (p. 97). Even this defi nition has the potential to be politically charged. At a general level, the collective terms ‘Indigenous’ (capitalised) and ‘Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander’ people (title capitalised) appear to be broadly acceptable terms. Indigenous groups cannot be considered to be homogenous as there is much diversity between and within groups (Nelson et al. 2010; Parker et al. 2006). It is therefore important this report is not viewed as taking an essentialist view of who Indigenous people are and how they develop. Rather, this paper attempts to describe and discuss the experiences of some individuals and their communities in site-specifi c surfi ng programs.

Induced higher-order aberrations after laser in situ keratomileusis (LASIK) performed with wavefront-guided IntraLase femtosecond laser in moderate to high astigmatism

Background Wavefront-guided Laser-assisted in situ keratomileusis (LASIK) is a widespread and effective surgical treatment for myopia and astigmatic correction but whether it induces higher-order aberrations remains controversial. The study was designed to evaluate the changes in higher-order aberrations after wavefront-guided ablation with IntraLase femtosecond laser in moderate to high astigmatism. Methods Twenty-three eyes of 15 patients with moderate to high astigmatism (mean cylinder, −3.22 ± 0.59 dioptres) aged between 19 and 35 years (mean age, 25.6 ± 4.9 years) were included in this prospective study. Subjects with cylinder ≥ 1.5 and ≤2.75 D were classified as moderate astigmatism while high astigmatism was ≥3.00 D. All patients underwent a femtosecond laser–enabled (150-kHz IntraLase iFS; Abbott Medical Optics Inc) wavefront-guided ablation. Uncorrected (UDVA), corrected (CDVA) distance visual acuity in logMAR, keratometry, central corneal thickness (CCT) and higher-order aberrations (HOAs) over a 6 mm pupil, were assessed before and 6 months, postoperatively. The relationship between postoperative change in HOA and preoperative mean spherical equivalent refraction, mean astigmatism, and postoperative CCT were tested. Results At the last follow-up, the mean UDVA was increased (P < 0.0001) but CDVA remained unchanged (P = 0.48) and no eyes lost ≥2 lines of CDVA. Mean spherical equivalent refraction was reduced (P < 0.0001) and was within ±0.50 D range in 61 % of eyes. The average corneal curvature was flatter by 4 D and CCT was reduced by 83 μm (P < 0.0001, for all), postoperatively. Coma aberrations remained unchanged (P = 0.07) while the change in trefoil (P = 0.047) postoperatively, was not clinically significant. The 4th order HOAs (spherical aberration and secondary astigmatism) and the HOA root mean square (RMS) increased from −0.18 ± 0.07 μm, 0.04 ± 0.03 μm and 0.47 ± 0.11 μm, preoperatively, to 0.33 ± 0.19 μm (P = 0.004), 0.21 ± 0.09 μm (P < 0.0001) and 0.77 ± 0.27 μm (P < 0.0001), six months postoperatively. The change in spherical aberration after the procedure increased with an increase in the degree of preoperative myopia. Conclusions Wavefront-guided IntraLASIK offers a safe and effective option for vision and visual function improvement in astigmatism. Although, reduction of HOA is possible in a few eyes, spherical-like aberrations are increased in majority of the treated eyes.

A multi-centre open-label randomised non-inferiority trial comparing watchful waiting to antibiotic treatment for acute otitis media without perforation in low-risk urban Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander children (the WATCH trial): study protocol for a randomised controlled trial

Background Treatment guidelines recommend watchful waiting for children older than 2 years with acute otitis media (AOM) without perforation, unless they are at high risk of complications. The high prevalence of chronic suppurative otitis media (CSOM) in remote Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander communities leads these children to be classified as high risk. Urban Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander children are at lower risk of complications, but evidence to support the subsequent recommendation for watchful waiting in this population is lacking. Methods/Design This non-inferiority multi-centre randomised controlled trial will determine whether watchful waiting is non-inferior to immediate antibiotics for urban Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander children with AOM without perforation. Children aged 2 − 16 years with AOM who are considered at low risk for complications will be recruited from six participating urban primary health care services across Australia. We will obtain informed consent from each participant or their guardian. The primary outcome is clinical resolution on day 7 (no pain, no fever of at least 38 °C, no bulging eardrum and no complications of AOM such as perforation or mastoiditis) as assessed by general practitioners or nurse practitioners. Participants and outcome assessors will not be blinded to treatment. With a sample size of 198 children in each arm, we have 80 % power to detect a non-inferiority margin of up to 10 % at a significance level of 5 %, assuming clinical improvement of at least 80 % in both groups. Allowing for a 20 % dropout rate, we aim to recruit 495 children. We will analyse both by intention-to-treat and per protocol. We will assess the cost- effectiveness of watchful waiting compared to immediate antibiotic prescription. We will also report on the implementation of the trial from the perspectives of parents/carers, health professionals and researchers. Discussion The trial will provide evidence for the safety and effectiveness of watchful waiting for the management of AOM in Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander children living in urban settings who are considered to be at low risk of complications.

A rare P2X7 variant Arg307Gln with absent pore formation function protects against neuroinflammation in multiple sclerosis

Multiple sclerosis (MS) is a chronic relapsing-remitting inflammatory disease of the central nervous system characterized by oligodendrocyte damage, demyelination and neuronal death. Genetic association studies have shown a 2-fold or greater prevalence of the HLA-DRB1*1501 allele in the MS population compared with normal Caucasians. In discovery cohorts of Australasian patients with MS (total 2941 patients and 3008 controls), we examined the associations of 12 functional polymorphisms of P2X7, a microglial/macrophage receptor with proinflammatory effects when activated by extracellular adenosine triphosphate (ATP). In discovery cohorts, rs28360457, coding for Arg307Gln was associated with MS and combined analysis showed a 2-fold lower minor allele frequency compared with controls (1.11% for MS and 2.15% for controls, P = 0.0000071). Replication analysis of four independent European MS case–control cohorts (total 2140 cases and 2634 controls) confirmed this association [odds ratio (OR) = 0.69, P = 0.026]. A meta-analysis of all Australasian and European cohorts indicated that Arg307Gln confers a 1.8-fold protective effect on MS risk (OR = 0.57, P = 0.0000024). Fresh human monocytes heterozygous for Arg307Gln have >85% loss of ‘pore’ function of the P2X7 receptor measured by ATP-induced ethidium uptake. Analysis shows Arg307Gln always occurred with 270His suggesting a single 307Gln–270His haplotype that confers dominant negative effects on P2X7 function and protection against MS. Modeling based on the homologous zP2X4 receptor showed Arg307 is located in a region rich in basic residues located only 12 Å from the ligand binding site. Our data show the protective effect against MS of a rare genetic variant of P2RX7 with heterozygotes showing near absent proinflammatory ‘pore’ function.

Patient-Generated Subjective Global Assessment Short Form (PG-SGA SF) is a valid screening tool in chemotherapy outpatients

Purpose In the oncology population where malnutrition prevalence is high, more descriptive screening tools can provide further information to assist triaging and capture acute change. The Patient-Generated Subjective Global Assessment Short Form (PG-SGA SF) is a component of a nutritional assessment tool which could be used for descriptive nutrition screening. The purpose of this study was to conduct a secondary analysis of nutrition screening and assessment data to identify the most relevant information contributing to the PG-SGA SF to identify malnutrition risk with high sensitivity and specificity. Methods This was an observational, cross-sectional study of 300 consecutive adult patients receiving ambulatory anti-cancer treatment at an Australian tertiary hospital. Anthropometric and patient descriptive data were collected. The scored PG-SGA generated a score for nutritional risk (PG-SGA SF) and a global rating for nutrition status. Receiver operating characteristic curves (ROC) were generated to determine optimal cut-off scores for combinations of the PG-SGA SF boxes with the greatest sensitivity and specificity for predicting malnutrition according to scored PG-SGA global rating. Results The additive scores of boxes 1–3 had the highest sensitivity (90.2 %) while maintaining satisfactory specificity (67.5 %) and demonstrating high diagnostic value (AUC = 0.85, 95 % CI = 0.81–0.89). The inclusion of box 4 (PG-SGA SF) did not add further value as a screening tool (AUC = 0.85, 95 % CI = 0.80–0.89; sensitivity 80.4 %; specificity 72.3 %). Conclusions The validity of the PG-SGA SF in chemotherapy outpatients was confirmed. The present study however demonstrated that the functional capacity question (box 4) does not improve the overall discriminatory value of the PG-SGA SF.

A generic individual-based spatially explicit model as a novel tool for investigating insect-plant interactions: A case study of the behavioural ecology of frugivorous Tephritidae

Computational modelling of mechanisms underlying processes in the real world can be of great value in understanding complex biological behaviours. Uptake in general biology and ecology has been rapid. However, it often requires specific data sets that are overly costly in time and resources to collect. The aim of the current study was to test whether a generic behavioural ecology model constructed using published data could give realistic outputs for individual species. An individual-based model was developed using the Pattern-Oriented Modelling (POM) strategy and protocol, based on behavioural rules associated with insect movement choices. Frugivorous Tephritidae (fruit flies) were chosen because of economic significance in global agriculture and the multiple published data sets available for a range of species. The Queensland fruit fly (Qfly), Bactrocera tryoni, was identified as a suitable individual species for testing. Plant canopies with modified architecture were used to run predictive simulations. A field study was then conducted to validate our model predictions on how plant architecture affects fruit flies’ behaviours. Characteristics of plant architecture such as different shapes, e.g., closed-canopy and vase-shaped, affected fly movement patterns and time spent on host fruit. The number of visits to host fruit also differed between the edge and centre in closed-canopy plants. Compared to plant architecture, host fruit has less contribution to effects on flies’ movement patterns. The results from this model, combined with our field study and published empirical data suggest that placing fly traps in the upper canopy at the edge should work best. Such a modelling approach allows rapid testing of ideas about organismal interactions with environmental substrates in silico rather than in vivo, to generate new perspectives. Using published data provides a saving in time and resources. Adjustments for specific questions can be achieved by refinement of parameters based on targeted experiments.