Machine prognostics based on health state estimation using SVM

The ability to accurately predict the remaining useful life of machine components is critical for machine continuous operation, and can also improve productivity and enhance system safety. In condition-based maintenance (CBM), maintenance is performed based on information collected through condition monitoring and an assessment of the machine health. Effective diagnostics and prognostics are important aspects of CBM for maintenance engineers to schedule a repair and to acquire replacement components before the components actually fail. All machine components are subjected to degradation processes in real environments and they have certain failure characteristics which can be related to the operating conditions. This paper describes a technique for accurate assessment of the remnant life of machines based on health state probability estimation and involving historical knowledge embedded in the closed loop diagnostics and prognostics systems. The technique uses a Support Vector Machine (SVM) classifier as a tool for estimating health state probability of machine degradation, which can affect the accuracy of prediction. To validate the feasibility of the proposed model, real life historical data from bearings of High Pressure Liquefied Natural Gas (HP-LNG) pumps were analysed and used to obtain the optimal prediction of remaining useful life. The results obtained were very encouraging and showed that the proposed prognostic system based on health state probability estimation has the potential to be used as an estimation tool for remnant life prediction in industrial machinery.

Slice, mine and dice : complexity-aware automated discovery of business process models

Automated process discovery techniques aim at extracting models from information system logs in order to shed light into the business processes supported by these systems. Existing techniques in this space are effective when applied to relatively small or regular logs, but otherwise generate large and spaghetti-like models. In previous work, trace clustering has been applied in an attempt to reduce the size and complexity of automatically discovered process models. The idea is to split the log into clusters and to discover one model per cluster. The result is a collection of process models -- each one representing a variant of the business process -- as opposed to an all-encompassing model. Still, models produced in this way may exhibit unacceptably high complexity. In this setting, this paper presents a two-way divide-and-conquer process discovery technique, wherein the discovered process models are split on the one hand by variants and on the other hand hierarchically by means of subprocess extraction. The proposed technique allows users to set a desired bound for the complexity of the produced models. Experiments on real-life logs show that the technique produces collections of models that are up to 64% smaller than those extracted under the same complexity bounds by applying existing trace clustering techniques.

Bearing fault prognosis based on health state probability estimation

In condition-based maintenance (CBM), effective diagnostic and prognostic tools are essential for maintenance engineers to identify imminent fault and predict the remaining useful life before the components finally fail. This enables remedial actions to be taken in advance and reschedule of production if necessary. All machine components are subjected to degradation processes in real environments and they have certain failure characteristics which can be related to the operating conditions. This paper describes a technique for accurate assessment of the remnant life of bearings based on health state probability estimation and historical knowledge embedded in the closed loop diagnostics and prognostics system. The technique uses the Support Vector Machine (SVM) classifier as a tool for estimating health state probability of machine degradation process to provide long term prediction. To validate the feasibility of the proposed model, real life fault historical data from bearings of High Pressure-Liquefied Natural Gas (HP-LNG) pumps were analysed and used to obtain the optimal prediction of remaining useful life (RUL). The results obtained were very encouraging and showed that the proposed prognosis system based on health state probability estimation has the potential to be used as an estimation tool for remnant life prediction in industrial machinery.

Career-path analysis using optimal matching and self-organizing maps

This paper is devoted to the analysis of career paths and employability. The state-of-the-art on this topic is rather poor in methodologies. Some authors propose distances well adapted to the data, but are limiting their analysis to hierarchical clustering. Other authors apply sophisticated methods, but only after paying the price of transforming the categorical data into continuous, via a factorial analysis. The latter approach has an important drawback since it makes a linear assumption on the data. We propose a new methodology, inspired from biology and adapted to career paths, combining optimal matching and self-organizing maps. A complete study on real-life data will illustrate our proposal.

Improving business process models using observed behavior

Process-aware information systems (PAISs) can be configured using a reference process model, which is typically obtained via expert interviews. Over time, however, contextual factors and system requirements may cause the operational process to start deviating from this reference model. While a reference model should ideally be updated to remain aligned with such changes, this is a costly and often neglected activity. We present a new process mining technique that automatically improves the reference model on the basis of the observed behavior as recorded in the event logs of a PAIS. We discuss how to balance the four basic quality dimensions for process mining (fitness, precision, simplicity and generalization) and a new dimension, namely the structural similarity between the reference model and the discovered model. We demonstrate the applicability of this technique using a real-life scenario from a Dutch municipality.

Achieving world leadership in sustainable buildings - a Brisbane case study

In Australia, the building and construction industry is taking significant steps towards the enhancement of environmental performance of the built environment. A large number of world class sustainable buildings have been constructed in recent years, offering researchers and practitioners alike a good opportunity to identify the best practices and real life experiences in delivering high performance buildings. A case study of ONE ONE ONE Eagle Street, a 6 Star Green Star office building in Brisbane, was conducted to investigate the best practice in achieving this “world leader” green office building. The study identified a number of key factors relating to project delivery system, contractor selection method, client’s early commitment, design integration, communication as major contributors to the successful delivery of this project. Additionally, key environmentally sustainable features and their cost implications were explored through in-depth interviews with the main contractor. The findings of this study will shed lights on the successful delivery of sustainable buildings and provide practical implications for different stakeholders.

How to guarantee compliance between workflows and product lifecycles?

Product Lifecycle Management (PLM) systems are widely used in the manufacturing industry. A core feature of such systems is to provide support for versioning of product data. As workflow functionality is increasingly used in PLM systems, the possibility emerges that the versioning transitions for product objects as encapsulated in process models do not comply with the valid version control policies mandated in the objects’ actual lifecycles. In this paper we propose a solution to tackle the (non-)compliance issues between processes and object version control policies. We formally define the notion of compliance between these two artifacts in product lifecycle management and then develop a compliance checking method which employs a well-established workflow analysis technique. This forms the basis of a tool which offers automated support to the proposed approach. By applying the approach to a collection of real-life specifications in a main PLM system, we demonstrate the practical applicability of our solution to the field.

Controlled automated discovery of collections of business process models

Automated process discovery techniques aim at extracting process models from information system logs. Existing techniques in this space are effective when applied to relatively small or regular logs, but generate spaghetti-like and sometimes inaccurate models when confronted to logs with high variability. In previous work, trace clustering has been applied in an attempt to reduce the size and complexity of automatically discovered process models. The idea is to split the log into clusters and to discover one model per cluster. This leads to a collection of process models – each one representing a variant of the business process – as opposed to an all-encompassing model. Still, models produced in this way may exhibit unacceptably high complexity and low fitness. In this setting, this paper presents a two-way divide-and-conquer process discovery technique, wherein the discovered process models are split on the one hand by variants and on the other hand hierarchically using subprocess extraction. Splitting is performed in a controlled manner in order to achieve user-defined complexity or fitness thresholds. Experiments on real-life logs show that the technique produces collections of models substantially smaller than those extracted by applying existing trace clustering techniques, while allowing the user to control the fitness of the resulting models.

Integrated approach for diagnostics and prognostics of HP LNG pump based on health state probability estimation

Effective machine fault prognostic technologies can lead to elimination of unscheduled downtime and increase machine useful life and consequently lead to reduction of maintenance costs as well as prevention of human casualties in real engineering asset management. This paper presents a technique for accurate assessment of the remnant life of machines based on health state probability estimation technique and historical failure knowledge embedded in the closed loop diagnostic and prognostic system. To estimate a discrete machine degradation state which can represent the complex nature of machine degradation effectively, the proposed prognostic model employed a classification algorithm which can use a number of damage sensitive features compared to conventional time series analysis techniques for accurate long-term prediction. To validate the feasibility of the proposed model, the five different level data of typical four faults from High Pressure Liquefied Natural Gas (HP-LNG) pumps were used for the comparison of intelligent diagnostic test using five different classification algorithms. In addition, two sets of impeller-rub data were analysed and employed to predict the remnant life of pump based on estimation of health state probability using the Support Vector Machine (SVM) classifier. The results obtained were very encouraging and showed that the proposed prognostics system has the potential to be used as an estimation tool for machine remnant life prediction in real life industrial applications.

Semantic querying of business process models

Determining similarity between business process models has recently gained interest in the business process management community. So far similarity was addressed separately either at semantic or structural aspect of process models. Also, most of the contributions that measure similarity of process models assume an ideal case when process models are enriched with semantics - a description of meaning of process model elements. However, in real life this results in a heavy human effort consuming pre-processing phase which is often not feasible. In this paper we propose an automated approach for querying a business process model repository for structurally and semantically relevant models. Similar to the search on the Internet, a user formulates a BPMN-Q query and as a result receives a list of process models ordered by relevance to the query. We provide a business process model search engine implementation for evaluation of the proposed approach.

Beyond tasks and gateways: discovering BPMN models with subprocesses, boundary events and activity markers

Existing techniques for automated discovery of process models from event logs largely focus on extracting flat process models. In other words, they fail to exploit the notion of subprocess, as well as structured error handling and repetition constructs provided by contemporary process modeling notations, such as the Business Process Model and Notation (BPMN). This paper presents a technique for automated discovery of BPMN models containing subprocesses, interrupting and non-interrupting boundary events, and loop and multi-instance markers. The technique analyzes dependencies between data attributes associated with events, in order to identify subprocesses and to extract their associated logs. Parent process and subprocess models are then discovered separately using existing techniques for flat process model discovery. Finally, the resulting models and logs are heuristically analyzed in order to identify boundary events and markers. A validation with one synthetic and two real-life logs shows that process models derived using the proposed technique are more accurate and less complex than those derived with flat process model discovery techniques.

In conversation with the Honourable Ian Callinan AC

When, in 1977, the Australian electorate provided a double majority to effect a change of section 72 of the Commonwealth Constitution requiring judges of the High Court of Australia to retire at the age of 70 years old, I doubt we understood the continuing capacity of these esteemed members of the judiciary. For the opportunity to sit and talk with Ian Callinan AC who, in compliance with that amendment, retired from the High Court in September 2007, I needed to wait until he returned from The Hague where he was sitting as a Judge ad hoc on the International Court of Justice. Although a native of Casino, New South Wales, Mr Callinan is regarded as a Queenslander. Indeed, he grew up in Brisbane, finished high school at Brisbane Grammar and graduated in law at The University of Queensland. Appointed in 1978 as a Queen’s Counsel, Mr Callinan enjoyed this period of his legal career and we discussed an aspect of the Christopher Skase case, which reinforced my belief that Mr Callinan is an incredibly skilful advocate. On 14 September 1998, ABC Four Corners broadcasted the views of some prominent Australians on the appointment of Mr Callinan to the High Court. In assessing the type of person Mr Callinan is, Tony Morris QC said: “Ian Callinan isn't a coward”, while former Commonwealth Attorney-General, Michael Lavarch, said: “He was regarded as an absolutely outstanding criminal lawyer within the Queensland legal profession, I mean really a top-notch advocate”. I was not interested in raising any of the controversial issues that Mr Callinan has encountered as an advocate in high profile matters. I wanted to know how he felt about his time on the High Court, what his thoughts are on the operation of the High Court, the IP cases he decided, the real life issues that he feels impact on counsel who are appearing before the High Court and the people he regarded as role models. During our conversation, Mr Callinan laughed often and when he did his eyes lit up, revealing his passion for life. He is an incredibly genuine Australian who loved his time as a barrister, enjoyed his role on the High Court, enjoys his current job as mediator, loves writing novels, has a great desire for continual improvement in the quality of legal education and legal advocacy and sees a need for change in IP law. When I asked: “So, what might the future hold for you?”, he laughed and said: “Well, at my age I don’t have a long horizon time”. I said: “Just enjoy the journey?”, to which Mr Callinan responded: “Exactly”.

Controlling current and voltage type interfaces in power-hardware-in-the-loop simulations

The usual practice to study a large power system is through digital computer simulation. However, the impact of large scale use of small distributed generators on a power network cannot be evaluated strictly by simulation since many of these components cannot be accurately modelled. Moreover, the network complexity makes the task of practical testing on a physical network nearly impossible. This study discusses the paradigm of interfacing a real-time simulation of a power system to real-life hardware devices. This type of splitting a network into two parts and running a real-time simulation with a physical system in parallel is usually termed as power-hardware-in-the-loop (PHIL) simulation. The hardware part is driven by a voltage source converter that amplifies the signals of the simulator. In this paper, the effects of suitable control strategy on the performance of PHIL and the associated stability aspects are analysed in detail. The analyses are validated through several experimental tests using an real-time digital simulator.

Threshold MACs

The power of sharing computation in a cryptosystem is crucial in several real-life applications of cryptography. Cryptographic primitives and tasks to which threshold cryptosystems have been applied include variants of digital signature, identification, public-key encryption and block ciphers etc. It is desirable to extend the domain of cryptographic primitives which threshold cryptography can be applied to. This paper studies threshold message authentication codes (threshold MACs). Threshold cryptosystems usually use algebraically homomorphic properties of the underlying cryptographic primitives. A typical approach to construct a threshold cryptographic scheme is to combine a (linear) secret sharing scheme with an algebraically homomorphic cryptographic primitive. The lack of algebraic properties of MACs rules out such an approach to share MACs. In this paper, we propose a method of obtaining a threshold MAC using a combinatorial approach. Our method is generic in the sense that it is applicable to any secure conventional MAC by making use of certain combinatorial objects, such as cover-free families and their variants. We discuss the issues of anonymity in threshold cryptography, a subject that has not been addressed previously in the literature in the field, and we show that there are trade-offis between the anonymity and efficiency of threshold MACs.

Conspiracy for good

"Tim Kring, Creator of the hit television show 'Heroes' tells how the big idea began, and where you can jump in. "A few years ago, I started thinking about an entirely new way to tell a story, far different from traditional TV. I didn't just want to talk about 'saving the world' in fiction, I wanted to create a narrative that spilled out into the streets. One that you could live inside of for a while. How cool would it be, I thought, to create a story that exists all around you all of the time? On your laptop, your mobile phone, on your sidewalks, as a secret message hidden in your favorite song or while standing at the bus stop on your way to work. And, taking it further, what if your participation over a few weeks or months actually impacts the story's development and creates positive change in the real world because a philanthropic mission is integrated into the narrative itself? The Conspiracy For Good is the culmination of this dream. This is the pilot project for a first-of-itskind interactive story that empowers its audience to take real-life action and create positive change in the world. Call it Social Benefit Storytelling. To achieve this, I need you to participate. Reality and fiction have to blur. Every story needs a villain and you will meet the villain in the STORY SO FAR section on this site. And every story needs a hero. That's where YOU come in. As part of The Conspiracy For Good you will join a collective of thinkers, artists, musicians, and causes, creating a unified voice to fight the forces of social and environmental injustice. This is our site, where together we can follow the story and build a community that focuses on changing the world for the better, one person and one action at a time. Welcome to the Conspiracy." Tim Kring"