Optimal image sample size for corneal nerve morphometry

Purpose Arbitrary numbers of corneal confocal microscopy images have been used for analysis of corneal subbasal nerve parameters under the implicit assumption that these are a representative sample of the central corneal nerve plexus. The purpose of this study is to present a technique for quantifying the number of random central corneal images required to achieve an acceptable level of accuracy in the measurement of corneal nerve fiber length and branch density. Methods Every possible combination of 2 to 16 images (where 16 was deemed the true mean) of the central corneal subbasal nerve plexus, not overlapping by more than 20%, were assessed for nerve fiber length and branch density in 20 subjects with type 2 diabetes and varying degrees of functional nerve deficit. Mean ratios were calculated to allow comparisons between and within subjects. Results In assessing nerve branch density, eight randomly chosen images not overlapping by more than 20% produced an average that was within 30% of the true mean 95% of the time. A similar sampling strategy of five images was 13% within the true mean 80% of the time for corneal nerve fiber length. Conclusions The “sample combination analysis” presented here can be used to determine the sample size required for a desired level of accuracy of quantification of corneal subbasal nerve parameters. This technique may have applications in other biological sampling studies.

Spatial variation of particle number concentration in school microscale environment

There is significant toxicological evidence of the effects of ultrafine particles (<100nm) on human health (WHO 2005). Studies show that the number concentration of particles has been associated with adverse human health effects (Englert 2004). This work is part of a major study called ‘Ultrafine Particles form Traffic Emissions and Children’s Health’ (UPTECH), which seeks to determine the effect of the exposure to traffic related ultrafine particles on children’s health in schools (http://www.ilaqh.qut.edu.au/Misc/UPT ECH%20Home.htm). Quantification of spatial variation of particle number concentration (PNC) in a microscale environment and identification of the main affecting parameters and their contribution levels are the main aims of this analysis.

The relationship between drivers’ perceptions toward police speed enforcement and self-reported speeding behaviour

Exceeding the speed limit and driving too fast for the conditions are regularly cited as significant contributing factors in traffic crashes, particularly fatal and serious injury crashes. Despite an extensive body of research highlighting the relationship between increased vehicle speeds and crash risk and severity, speeding remains a pervasive behaviour on Australian roads. The development of effective countermeasures designed to reduce the prevalence of speeding behaviour requires that this behaviour is well understood. The primary aim of this program of research was to develop a better understanding of the influence of drivers’ perceptions and attitudes toward police speed enforcement on speeding behaviour. Study 1 employed focus group discussions with 39 licensed drivers to explore the influence of perceptions relating to specific characteristics of speed enforcement policies and practices on drivers’ attitudes towards speed enforcement. Three primary factors were identified as being most influential: site selection; visibility; and automaticity (i.e., whether the enforcement approach is automated/camera-based or manually operated). Perceptions regarding these enforcement characteristics were found to influence attitudes regarding the perceived legitimacy and transparency of speed enforcement. Moreover, misperceptions regarding speed enforcement policies and practices appeared to also have a substantial impact on attitudes toward speed enforcement, typically in a negative direction. These findings have important implications for road safety given that prior research has suggested that the effectiveness of speed enforcement approaches may be reduced if efforts are perceived by drivers as being illegitimate, such that they do little to encourage voluntary compliance. Study 1 also examined the impact of speed enforcement approaches varying in the degree of visibility and automaticity on self-reported willingness to comply with speed limits. These discussions suggested that all of the examined speed enforcement approaches (see Section 1.5 for more details) generally showed potential to reduce vehicle speeds and encourage compliance with posted speed limits. Nonetheless, participant responses suggested a greater willingness to comply with approaches operated in a highly visible manner, irrespective of the corresponding level of automaticity of the approach. While less visible approaches were typically associated with poorer rates of driver acceptance (e.g., perceived as “sneaky” and “unfair”), participants reported that such approaches would likely encourage long-term and network-wide impacts on their own speeding behaviour, as a function of the increased unpredictability of operations and increased direct (specific deterrence) and vicarious (general deterrence) experiences with punishment. Participants in Study 1 suggested that automated approaches, particularly when operated in a highly visible manner, do little to encourage compliance with speed limits except in the immediate vicinity of the enforcement location. While speed cameras have been criticised on such grounds in the past, such approaches can still have substantial road safety benefits if implemented in high-risk settings. Moreover, site-learning effects associated with automated approaches can also be argued to be a beneficial by-product of enforcement, such that behavioural modifications are achieved even in the absence of actual enforcement. Conversely, manually operated approaches were reported to be associated with more network-wide impacts on behaviour. In addition, the reported acceptance of such methods was high, due to the increased swiftness of punishment, ability for additional illegal driving behaviours to be policed and the salutary influence associated with increased face-to-face contact with authority. Study 2 involved a quantitative survey conducted with 718 licensed Queensland drivers from metropolitan and regional areas. The survey sought to further examine the influence of the visibility and automaticity of operations on self-reported likelihood and duration of compliance. Overall, the results from Study 2 corroborated those of Study 1. All examined approaches were again found to encourage compliance with speed limits, such that all approaches could be considered to be “effective”. Nonetheless, significantly greater self-reported likelihood and duration of compliance was associated with visibly operated approaches, irrespective of the corresponding automaticity of the approach. In addition, the impact of automaticity was influenced by visibility; such that significantly greater self-reported likelihood of compliance was associated with manually operated approaches, but only when they are operated in a less visible fashion. Conversely, manually operated approaches were associated with significantly greater durations of self-reported compliance, but only when they are operated in a highly visible manner. Taken together, the findings from Studies 1 and 2 suggest that enforcement efforts, irrespective of their visibility or automaticity, generally encourage compliance with speed limits. However, the duration of these effects on behaviour upon removal of the enforcement efforts remains questionable and represents an area where current speed enforcement practices could possibly be improved. Overall, it appears that identifying the optimal mix of enforcement operations, implementing them at a sufficient intensity and increasing the unpredictability of enforcement efforts (e.g., greater use of less visible approaches, random scheduling) are critical elements of success. Hierarchical multiple regression analyses were also performed in Study 2 to investigate the punishment-related and attitudinal constructs that influence self-reported frequency of speeding behaviour. The research was based on the theoretical framework of expanded deterrence theory, augmented with three particular attitudinal constructs. Specifically, previous research examining the influence of attitudes on speeding behaviour has typically focussed on attitudes toward speeding behaviour in general only. This research sought to more comprehensively explore the influence of attitudes by also individually measuring and analysing attitudes toward speed enforcement and attitudes toward the appropriateness of speed limits on speeding behaviour. Consistent with previous research, a number of classical and expanded deterrence theory variables were found to significantly predict self-reported frequency of speeding behaviour. Significantly greater speeding behaviour was typically reported by those participants who perceived punishment associated with speeding to be less certain, who reported more frequent use of punishment avoidance strategies and who reported greater direct experiences with punishment. A number of interesting differences in the significant predictors among males and females, as well as younger and older drivers, were reported. Specifically, classical deterrence theory variables appeared most influential on the speeding behaviour of males and younger drivers, while expanded deterrence theory constructs appeared more influential for females. These findings have important implications for the development and implementation of speeding countermeasures. Of the attitudinal factors, significantly greater self-reported frequency of speeding behaviour was reported among participants who held more favourable attitudes toward speeding and who perceived speed limits to be set inappropriately low. Disappointingly, attitudes toward speed enforcement were found to have little influence on reported speeding behaviour, over and above the other deterrence theory and attitudinal constructs. Indeed, the relationship between attitudes toward speed enforcement and self-reported speeding behaviour was completely accounted for by attitudes toward speeding. Nonetheless, the complexity of attitudes toward speed enforcement are not yet fully understood and future research should more comprehensively explore the measurement of this construct. Finally, given the wealth of evidence (both in general and emerging from this program of research) highlighting the association between punishment avoidance and speeding behaviour, Study 2 also sought to investigate the factors that influence the self-reported propensity to use punishment avoidance strategies. A standard multiple regression analysis was conducted for exploratory purposes only. The results revealed that punishment-related and attitudinal factors significantly predicted approximately one fifth of the variance in the dependent variable. The perceived ability to avoid punishment, vicarious punishment experience, vicarious punishment avoidance and attitudes toward speeding were all significant predictors. Future research should examine these relationships more thoroughly and identify additional influential factors. In summary, the current program of research has a number of implications for road safety and speed enforcement policy and practice decision-making. The research highlights a number of potential avenues for the improvement of public education regarding enforcement efforts and provides a number of insights into punishment avoidance behaviours. In addition, the research adds strength to the argument that enforcement approaches should not only demonstrate effectiveness in achieving key road safety objectives, such as reduced vehicle speeds and associated crashes, but also strive to be transparent and legitimate, such that voluntary compliance is encouraged. A number of potential strategies are discussed (e.g., point-to-point speed cameras, intelligent speed adaptation. The correct mix and intensity of enforcement approaches appears critical for achieving optimum effectiveness from enforcement efforts, as well as enhancements in the unpredictability of operations and swiftness of punishment. Achievement of these goals should increase both the general and specific deterrent effects associated with enforcement through an increased perceived risk of detection and a more balanced exposure to punishment and punishment avoidance experiences.

Correction of step artefact associated with MRI scanning of long bones

3D models of long bones are being utilised for a number of fields including orthopaedic implant design. Accurate reconstruction of 3D models is of utmost importance to design accurate implants to allow achieving a good alignment between two bone fragments. Thus for this purpose, CT scanners are employed to acquire accurate bone data exposing an individual to a high amount of ionising radiation. Magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) has been shown to be a potential alternative to computed tomography (CT) for scanning of volunteers for 3D reconstruction of long bones, essentially avoiding the high radiation dose from CT. In MRI imaging of long bones, the artefacts due to random movements of the skeletal system create challenges for researchers as they generate inaccuracies in the 3D models generated by using data sets containing such artefacts. One of the defects that have been observed during an initial study is the lateral shift artefact occurring in the reconstructed 3D models. This artefact is believed to result from volunteers moving the leg during two successive scanning stages (the lower limb has to be scanned in at least five stages due to the limited scanning length of the scanner). As this artefact creates inaccuracies in the implants designed using these models, it needs to be corrected before the application of 3D models to implant design. Therefore, this study aimed to correct the lateral shift artefact using 3D modelling techniques. The femora of five ovine hind limbs were scanned with a 3T MRI scanner using a 3D vibe based protocol. The scanning was conducted in two halves, while maintaining a good overlap between them. A lateral shift was generated by moving the limb several millimetres between two scanning stages. The 3D models were reconstructed using a multi threshold segmentation method. The correction of the artefact was achieved by aligning the two halves using the robust iterative closest point (ICP) algorithm, with the help of the overlapping region between the two. The models with the corrected artefact were compared with the reference model generated by CT scanning of the same sample. The results indicate that the correction of the artefact was achieved with an average deviation of 0.32 ± 0.02 mm between the corrected model and the reference model. In comparison, the model obtained from a single MRI scan generated an average error of 0.25 ± 0.02 mm when compared with the reference model. An average deviation of 0.34 ± 0.04 mm was seen when the models generated after the table was moved were compared to the reference models; thus, the movement of the table is also a contributing factor to the motion artefacts.

Optimisation of Banana streak virus (BSV) diagnostic assays

Bananas are one of the world�fs most important crops, serving as a staple food and an important source of income for millions of people in the subtropics. Pests and diseases are a major constraint to banana production. To prevent the spread of pests and disease, farmers are encouraged to use disease�] and insect�]free planting material obtained by micropropagation. This option, however, does not always exclude viruses and concern remains on the quality of planting material. Therefore, there is a demand for effective and reliable virus indexing procedures for tissue culture (TC) material. Reliable diagnostic tests are currently available for all of the economically important viruses of bananas with the exception of Banana streak viruses (BSV, Caulimoviridae, Badnavirus). Development of a reliable diagnostic test for BSV is complicated by the significant serological and genetic variation reported for BSV isolates, and the presence of endogenous BSV (eBSV). Current PCR�] and serological�]based diagnostic methods for BSV may not detect all species of BSV, and PCR�]based methods may give false positives because of the presence of eBSV. Rolling circle amplification (RCA) has been reported as a technique to detect BSV which can also discriminate between episomal and endogenous BSV sequences. However, the method is too expensive for large scale screening of samples in developing countries, and little information is available regarding its sensitivity. Therefore the development of reliable PCR�]based assays is still considered the most appropriate option for large scale screening of banana plants for BSV. This MSc project aimed to refine and optimise the protocols for BSV detection, with a particular focus on developing reliable PCR�]based diagnostics Initially, the appropriateness and reliability of PCR and RCA as diagnostic tests for BSV detection were assessed by testing 45 field samples of banana collected from nine districts in the Eastern region of Uganda in February 2010. This research was also aimed at investigating the diversity of BSV in eastern Uganda, identifying the BSV species present and characterising any new BSV species. Out of the 45 samples tested, 38 and 40 samples were considered positive by PCR and RCA, respectively. Six different species of BSV, namely Banana streak IM virus (BSIMV), Banana streak MY virus (BSMYV), Banana streak OL virus (BSOLV), Banana streak UA virus (BSUAV), Banana streak UL virus (BSULV), Banana streak UM virus (BSUMV), were detected by PCR and confirmed by RCA and sequencing. No new species were detected, but this was the first report of BSMYV in Uganda. Although RCA was demonstrated to be suitable for broad�]range detection of BSV, it proved time�]consuming and laborious for identification in field samples. Due to the disadvantages associated with RCA, attempts were made to develop a reliable PCR�]based assay for the specific detection of episomal BSOLV, Banana streak GF virus (BSGFV), BSMYV and BSIMV. For BSOLV and BSGFV, the integrated sequences exist in rearranged, repeated and partially inverted portions at their site of integration. Therefore, for these two viruses, primers sets were designed by mapping previously published sequences of their endogenous counterparts onto published sequences of the episomal genomes. For BSOLV, two primer sets were designed while, for BSGFV, a single primer set was designed. The episomalspecificity of these primer sets was assessed by testing 106 plant samples collected during surveys in Kenya and Uganda, and 33 leaf samples from a wide range of banana cultivars maintained in TC at the Maroochy Research Station of the Department of Employment, Economic Development and Innovation (DEEDI), Queensland. All of these samples had previously been tested for episomal BSV by RCA and for both BSOLV and BSGFV by PCR using published primer sets. The outcome from these analyses was that the newly designed primer sets for BSOLV and BSGFV were able to distinguish between episomal BSV and eBSV in most cultivars with some B�]genome component. In some samples, however, amplification was observed using the putative episomal�]specific primer sets where episomal BSV was not identified using RCA. This may reflect a difference in the sensitivity of PCR compared to RCA, or possibly the presence of an eBSV sequence of different conformation. Since the sequences of the respective eBSV for BSMYV and BSIMV in the M. balbisiana genome are not available, a series of random primer combinations were tested in an attempt to find potential episomal�]specific primer sets for BSMYV and BSIMV. Of an initial 20 primer combinations screened for BSMYV detection on a small number of control samples, 11 primers sets appeared to be episomal�]specific. However, subsequent testing of two of these primer combinations on a larger number of control samples resulted in some inconsistent results which will require further investigation. Testing of the 25 primer combinations for episomal�]specific detection of BSIMV on a number of control samples showed that none were able to discriminate between episomal and endogenous BSIMV. The final component of this research project was the development of an infectious clone of a BSV endemic in Australia, namely BSMYV. This was considered important to enable the generation of large amounts of diseased plant material needed for further research. A terminally redundant fragment (.1.3 �~ BSMYV genome) was cloned and transformed into Agrobacterium tumefaciens strain AGL1, and used to inoculate 12 healthy banana plants of the cultivars Cavendish (Williams) by three different methods. At 12 weeks post�]inoculation, (i) four of the five banana plants inoculated by corm injection showed characteristic BSV symptoms while the remaining plant was wilting/dying, (ii) three of the five banana plants inoculated by needle�]pricking of the stem showed BSV symptoms, one plant was symptomless while the remaining had died and (iii) both banana plants inoculated by leaf infiltration were symptomless. When banana leaf samples were tested for BSMYV by PCR and RCA, BSMYV was confirmed in all banana plants showing symptoms including those were wilting and/or dying. The results from this research have provided several avenues for further research. By completely sequencing all variants of eBSOLV and eBSGFV and fully sequencing the eBSIMV and eBSMYV regions, episomal BSV�]specific primer sets for all eBSVs could potentially be designed that could avoid all integrants of that particular BSV species. Furthermore, the development of an infectious BSV clone will enable large numbers of BSVinfected plants to be generated for the further testing of the sensitivity of RCA compared to other more established assays such as PCR. The development of infectious clones also opens the possibility for virus induced gene silencing studies in banana.

Marginal reversible jump Markov chain Monte Carlo with application to motor unit number estimation

Motor unit number estimation (MUNE) is a method which aims to provide a quantitative indicator of progression of diseases that lead to loss of motor units, such as motor neurone disease. However the development of a reliable, repeatable and fast real-time MUNE method has proved elusive hitherto. Ridall et al. (2007) implement a reversible jump Markov chain Monte Carlo (RJMCMC) algorithm to produce a posterior distribution for the number of motor units using a Bayesian hierarchical model that takes into account biological information about motor unit activation. However we find that the approach can be unreliable for some datasets since it can suffer from poor cross-dimensional mixing. Here we focus on improved inference by marginalising over latent variables to create the likelihood. In particular we explore how this can improve the RJMCMC mixing and investigate alternative approaches that utilise the likelihood (e.g. DIC (Spiegelhalter et al., 2002)). For this model the marginalisation is over latent variables which, for a larger number of motor units, is an intractable summation over all combinations of a set of latent binary variables whose joint sample space increases exponentially with the number of motor units. We provide a tractable and accurate approximation for this quantity and also investigate simulation approaches incorporated into RJMCMC using results of Andrieu and Roberts (2009).

Cost effectiveness of nutrition support in the prevention of pressure ulcer in hospitals

Background/objectives This study estimates the economic outcomes of a nutrition intervention to at-risk patients compared with standard care in the prevention of pressure ulcer. Subjects/methods Statistical models were developed to predict ‘cases of pressure ulcer avoided’, ‘number of bed days gained’ and ‘change to economic costs’ in public hospitals in 2002–2003 in Queensland, Australia. Input parameters were specified and appropriate probability distributions fitted for: number of discharges per annum; incidence rate for pressure ulcer; independent effect of pressure ulcer on length of stay; cost of a bed day; change in risk in developing a pressure ulcer associated with nutrition support; annual cost of the provision of a nutrition support intervention for at-risk patients. A total of 1000 random re-samples were made and the results expressed as output probability distributions. Results The model predicts a mean 2896 (s.d. 632) cases of pressure ulcer avoided; 12 397 (s.d. 4491) bed days released and corresponding mean economic cost saving of euros 2 869 526 (s.d. 2 078 715) with a nutrition support intervention, compared with standard care. Conclusion Nutrition intervention is predicted to be a cost-effective approach in the prevention of pressure ulcer in at-risk patients.

Adaptive sizing of populations and number of islands in distributed genetic algorithms

Deciding the appropriate population size and number of is- lands for distributed island-model genetic algorithms is often critical to the algorithm’s success. This paper outlines a method that automatically searches for good combinations of island population sizes and the number of islands. The method is based on a race between competing parameter sets, and collaborative seeding of new parameter sets. This method is applicable to any problem, and makes distributed genetic algorithms easier to use by reducing the number of user-set parameters. The experimental results show that the proposed method robustly and reliably finds population and islands settings that are comparable to those found with traditional trial-and-error approaches.

Comparison of PCR, nested PCR, and random amplified polymorphic DNA PCR for detection and typing of Ureaplasma urealyticum in specimens from pregnant women

A PCR assay, using three primer pairs, was developed for the detection of Ureaplasma urealyticum, parvo biovar, mba types 1, 3, and 6, in cultured clinical specimens. The primer pairs were designed by using the polymorphic base positions within a 310- to 311-bp fragment of the 5* end and upstream control region of the mba gene. The specificity of the assay was confirmed with reference serovars 1, 3, 6, and 14 and by the amplified-fragment sizes (81 bp for mba 1, 262 bp for mba 3, and 193 bp for mba 6). A more sensitive nested PCR was also developed. This involved a first-step PCR, using the primers UMS-125 and UMA226, followed by the nested mba-type PCR described above. This nested PCR enabled the detection and typing of small numbers of U. urealyticum cells, including mixtures, directly in original clinical specimens. By using random amplified polymorphic DNA (RAPD) PCR with seven arbitrary primers, we were also able to differentiate the two biovars of U. urealyticum and to identify 13 RAPD-PCR subtypes. By applying these subtyping techniques to clinical samples collected from pregnant women, we established that (i) U. urealyticum is often a persistent colonizer of the lower genital tract from early midtrimester until the third trimester of pregnancy, (ii) mba type 6 was isolated significantly more often (P 5 0.048) from women who delivered preterm than from women who delivered at term, (iii) no particular ureaplasma subtype(s) was associated with placental infections and/or adverse pregnancy outcomes, and (iv) the ureaplasma subtypes most frequently isolated from women were the same subtypes most often isolated from infected placentas.

A hybrid simulation framework to assess the impact of renewable generators on a distribution network

With an increasing number of small-scale renewable generator installations, distribution network planners are faced with new technical challenges (intermittent load flows, network imbalances…). Then again, these decentralized generators (DGs) present opportunities regarding savings on network infrastructure if installed at strategic locations. How can we consider both of these aspects when building decision tools for planning future distribution networks? This paper presents a simulation framework which combines two modeling techniques: agent-based modeling (ABM) and particle swarm optimization (PSO). ABM is used to represent the different system units of the network accurately and dynamically, simulating over short time-periods. PSO is then used to find the most economical configuration of DGs over longer periods of time. The infrastructure of the framework is introduced, presenting the two modeling techniques and their integration. A case study of Townsville, Australia, is then used to illustrate the platform implementation and the outputs of a simulation.

Towards Bayesian experimental design for nonlinear models that require a large number of sampling times

The use of Bayesian methodologies for solving optimal experimental design problems has increased. Many of these methods have been found to be computationally intensive for design problems that require a large number of design points. A simulation-based approach that can be used to solve optimal design problems in which one is interested in finding a large number of (near) optimal design points for a small number of design variables is presented. The approach involves the use of lower dimensional parameterisations that consist of a few design variables, which generate multiple design points. Using this approach, one simply has to search over a few design variables, rather than searching over a large number of optimal design points, thus providing substantial computational savings. The methodologies are demonstrated on four applications, including the selection of sampling times for pharmacokinetic and heat transfer studies, and involve nonlinear models. Several Bayesian design criteria are also compared and contrasted, as well as several different lower dimensional parameterisation schemes for generating the many design points.

Optimising preventive maintenance strategy for production Lines

Preventive Maintenance (PM) is often applied to improve the reliability of production lines. A Split System Approach (SSA) based methodology is presented to assist in making optimal PM decisions for serial production lines. The methodology treats a production line as a complex series system with multiple (imperfect) PM actions over multiple intervals. The conditional and overall reliability of the entire production line over these multiple PM intervals are hierarchically calculated using SSA, and provide a foundation for cost analysis. Both risk-related cost and maintenance-related cost are factored into the methodology as either deterministic or random variables. This SSA based methodology enables Asset Management (AM) decisions to be optimised considering a variety of factors including failure probability, failure cost, maintenance cost, PM performance, and the type of PM strategy. The application of this new methodology and an evaluation of the effects of these factors on PM decisions are demonstrated using an example. The results of this work show that the performance of a PM strategy can be measured by its Total Expected Cost Index (TECI). The optimal PM interval is dependent on TECI, PM performance and types of PM strategies. These factors are interrelated. Generally, it was found that a trade-off between reliability and the number of PM actions needs to be made so that one can minimise Total Expected Cost (TEC) for asset maintenance.

On the commonly accepted assumptions regarding observed motor vehicle crash counts at transport system locations

Readily accepted knowledge regarding crash causation is consistently omitted from efforts to model and subsequently understand motor vehicle crash occurrence and their contributing factors. For instance, distracted and impaired driving accounts for a significant proportion of crash occurrence, yet is rarely modeled explicitly. In addition, spatially allocated influences such as local law enforcement efforts, proximity to bars and schools, and roadside chronic distractions (advertising, pedestrians, etc.) play a role in contributing to crash occurrence and yet are routinely absent from crash models. By and large, these well-established omitted effects are simply assumed to contribute to model error, with predominant focus on modeling the engineering and operational effects of transportation facilities (e.g. AADT, number of lanes, speed limits, width of lanes, etc.) The typical analytical approach—with a variety of statistical enhancements—has been to model crashes that occur at system locations as negative binomial (NB) distributed events that arise from a singular, underlying crash generating process. These models and their statistical kin dominate the literature; however, it is argued in this paper that these models fail to capture the underlying complexity of motor vehicle crash causes, and thus thwart deeper insights regarding crash causation and prevention. This paper first describes hypothetical scenarios that collectively illustrate why current models mislead highway safety researchers and engineers. It is argued that current model shortcomings are significant, and will lead to poor decision-making. Exploiting our current state of knowledge of crash causation, crash counts are postulated to arise from three processes: observed network features, unobserved spatial effects, and ‘apparent’ random influences that reflect largely behavioral influences of drivers. It is argued; furthermore, that these three processes in theory can be modeled separately to gain deeper insight into crash causes, and that the model represents a more realistic depiction of reality than the state of practice NB regression. An admittedly imperfect empirical model that mixes three independent crash occurrence processes is shown to outperform the classical NB model. The questioning of current modeling assumptions and implications of the latent mixture model to current practice are the most important contributions of this paper, with an initial but rather vulnerable attempt to model the latent mixtures as a secondary contribution.

The role of randomly mixed-layered chlorite/smectite in the transformation of smectite to chlorite

Vesicular and groundmass phyllosilicates in a hydrothermally altered basalt from the Point Sal ophiolite, California, have been studied using transmission electron microscopy (TEM). Pore-filling phyllosilicates are texturally characterized as having coherent, relatively thick and defect-free crystals of chlorite (14 Å) with occasional 24-Å periodicities. Groundmass phyllosilicates are texturally characterized as 1) randomly oriented crystals up to 200 Å in width and 2) larger, more coherent crystals up to 1000 Å in width. Small crystallites contain predominantly 14-Å layers with some 24-Å units. Large crystals show randomly interlayered chlorite/smectite (C/S), with approximately 50% chlorite on average. Adjacent smectite-like layers are not uncommon in the groundmass phyllosilicates. Electron microprobe analyses show that Fe/Mg ratios of both groundmass and vesicular phyllosilicates are fairly constant. Termination of brucite-like interlayers has been identified in some of the TEM images. The transformation mechanisms represented by these layer terminations are 1) growth of a brucite-like interlayer within smectite interlayer regions and 2) the dissolution and reprecipitation of elements to form chlorite layers. Both mechanisms require an increase in volume as smectite transforms to chlorite. The data, combined with that from previously published reports, suggest that randomly interlayered C/S is a metastable phase formed in microenvironments with low water/rock ratios. Chlorite forms in microenvironments in the same sample dominated by higher water/rock ratios. The relatively constant number of Mg's in the structure (Mg#) of both structures indicates that in both microenvironments the bulk rock composition has influence over the composition of phyllosilicates.

Active and reactive power control of synchronous generator for the realization of a virtual power plant

This paper presents a novel power control strategy that decouples the active and reactive power for a synchronous generator connected to a power network. The proposed control paradigm considers the capacitance of the transmission line along with its resistance and reactance as-well. Moreover the proposed controller takes into account all cases of R-X relationships, thus allowing it to function in Virtual Power Plant (VPP) structures which operate at both medium voltage (MV) and low voltage (LV) levels. The independent control of active and reactive power is achieved through rotational transformations of the terminal voltages and currents at the synchronous generator's output. This paper details the control technique by first presenting the mathematical and electrical network analysis of the methodology and then successfully implementing the control using MATLAB-SIMULINK simulation.