On the significance of omitted variables in intersection crash modeling

Advances in safety research—trying to improve the collective understanding of motor vehicle crash causes and contributing factors—rest upon the pursuit of numerous lines of research inquiry. The research community has focused considerable attention on analytical methods development (negative binomial models, simultaneous equations, etc.), on better experimental designs (before-after studies, comparison sites, etc.), on improving exposure measures, and on model specification improvements (additive terms, non-linear relations, etc.). One might logically seek to know which lines of inquiry might provide the most significant improvements in understanding crash causation and/or prediction. It is the contention of this paper that the exclusion of important variables (causal or surrogate measures of causal variables) cause omitted variable bias in model estimation and is an important and neglected line of inquiry in safety research. In particular, spatially related variables are often difficult to collect and omitted from crash models—but offer significant opportunities to better understand contributing factors and/or causes of crashes. This study examines the role of important variables (other than Average Annual Daily Traffic (AADT)) that are generally omitted from intersection crash prediction models. In addition to the geometric and traffic regulatory information of intersection, the proposed model includes many spatial factors such as local influences of weather, sun glare, proximity to drinking establishments, and proximity to schools—representing a mix of potential environmental and human factors that are theoretically important, but rarely used. Results suggest that these variables in addition to AADT have significant explanatory power, and their exclusion leads to omitted variable bias. Provided is evidence that variable exclusion overstates the effect of minor road AADT by as much as 40% and major road AADT by 14%.

An innovative approach to the assessment of nutrient intake in adults with type 2 diabetes : the development, trial and evaluation of a mobile phone photo/voice dietary record

Nutrition interventions in the form of both self-management education and individualised diet therapy are considered essential for the long-term management of type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM). The measurement of diet is essential to inform, support and evaluate nutrition interventions in the management of T2DM. Barriers inherent within health care settings and systems limit ongoing access to personnel and resources, while traditional prospective methods of assessing diet are burdensome for the individual and often result in changes in typical intake to facilitate recording. This thesis investigated the inclusion of information and communication technologies (ICT) to overcome limitations to current approaches in the nutritional management of T2DM, in particular the development, trial and evaluation of the Nutricam dietary assessment method (NuDAM) consisting of a mobile phone photo/voice application to assess nutrient intake in a free-living environment with older adults with T2DM. Study 1: Effectiveness of an automated telephone system in promoting change in dietary intake among adults with T2DM The effectiveness of an automated telephone system, Telephone-Linked Care (TLC) Diabetes, designed to deliver self-management education was evaluated in terms of promoting dietary change in adults with T2DM and sub-optimal glycaemic control. In this secondary data analysis independent of the larger randomised controlled trial, complete data was available for 95 adults (59 male; mean age(±SD)=56.8±8.1 years; mean(±SD)BMI=34.2±7.0kg/m2). The treatment effect showed a reduction in total fat of 1.4% and saturated fat of 0.9% energy intake, body weight of 0.7 kg and waist circumference of 2.0 cm. In addition, a significant increase in the nutrition self-efficacy score of 1.3 (p<0.05) was observed in the TLC group compared to the control group. The modest trends observed in this study indicate that the TLC Diabetes system does support the adoption of positive nutrition behaviours as a result of diabetes self-management education, however caution must be applied in the interpretation of results due to the inherent limitations of the dietary assessment method used. The decision to use a close-list FFQ with known bias may have influenced the accuracy of reporting dietary intake in this instance. This study provided an example of the methodological challenges experienced with measuring changes in absolute diet using a FFQ, and reaffirmed the need for novel prospective assessment methods capable of capturing natural variance in usual intakes. Study 2: The development and trial of NuDAM recording protocol The feasibility of the Nutricam mobile phone photo/voice dietary record was evaluated in 10 adults with T2DM (6 Male; age=64.7±3.8 years; BMI=33.9±7.0 kg/m2). Intake was recorded over a 3-day period using both Nutricam and a written estimated food record (EFR). Compared to the EFR, the Nutricam device was found to be acceptable among subjects, however, energy intake was under-recorded using Nutricam (-0.6±0.8 MJ/day; p<0.05). Beverages and snacks were the items most frequently not recorded using Nutricam; however forgotten meals contributed to the greatest difference in energy intake between records. In addition, the quality of dietary data recorded using Nutricam was unacceptable for just under one-third of entries. It was concluded that an additional mechanism was necessary to complement dietary information collected via Nutricam. Modifications to the method were made to allow for clarification of Nutricam entries and probing forgotten foods during a brief phone call to the subject the following morning. The revised recording protocol was evaluated in Study 4. Study 3: The development and trial of the NuDAM analysis protocol Part A explored the effect of the type of portion size estimation aid (PSEA) on the error associated with quantifying four portions of 15 single foods items contained in photographs. Seventeen dietetic students (1 male; age=24.7±9.1 years; BMI=21.1±1.9 kg/m2) estimated all food portions on two occasions: without aids and with aids (food models or reference food photographs). Overall, the use of a PSEA significantly reduced mean (±SD) group error between estimates compared to no aid (-2.5±11.5% vs. 19.0±28.8%; p<0.05). The type of PSEA (i.e. food models vs. reference food photograph) did not have a notable effect on the group estimation error (-6.7±14.9% vs. 1.4±5.9%, respectively; p=0.321). This exploratory study provided evidence that the use of aids in general, rather than the type, was more effective in reducing estimation error. Findings guided the development of the Dietary Estimation and Assessment Tool (DEAT) for use in the analysis of the Nutricam dietary record. Part B evaluated the effect of the DEAT on the error associated with the quantification of two 3-day Nutricam dietary records in a sample of 29 dietetic students (2 males; age=23.3±5.1 years; BMI=20.6±1.9 kg/m2). Subjects were randomised into two groups: Group A and Group B. For Record 1, the use of the DEAT (Group A) resulted in a smaller error compared to estimations made without the tool (Group B) (17.7±15.8%/day vs. 34.0±22.6%/day, p=0.331; respectively). In comparison, all subjects used the DEAT to estimate Record 2, with resultant error similar between Group A and B (21.2±19.2%/day vs. 25.8±13.6%/day; p=0.377 respectively). In general, the moderate estimation error associated with quantifying food items did not translate into clinically significant differences in the nutrient profile of the Nutricam dietary records, only amorphous foods were notably over-estimated in energy content without the use of the DEAT (57kJ/day vs. 274kJ/day; p<0.001). A large proportion (89.6%) of the group found the DEAT helpful when quantifying food items contained in the Nutricam dietary records. The use of the DEAT reduced quantification error, minimising any potential effect on the estimation of energy and macronutrient intake. Study 4: Evaluation of the NuDAM The accuracy and inter-rater reliability of the NuDAM to assess energy and macronutrient intake was evaluated in a sample of 10 adults (6 males; age=61.2±6.9 years; BMI=31.0±4.5 kg/m2). Intake recorded using both the NuDAM and a weighed food record (WFR) was coded by three dietitians and compared with an objective measure of total energy expenditure (TEE) obtained using the doubly labelled water technique. At the group level, energy intake (EI) was under-reported to a similar extent using both methods, with the ratio of EI:TEE was 0.76±0.20 for the NuDAM and 0.76±0.17 for the WFR. At the individual level, four subjects reported implausible levels of energy intake using the WFR method, compared to three using the NuDAM. Overall, moderate to high correlation coefficients (r=0.57-0.85) were found across energy and macronutrients except fat (r=0.24) between the two dietary measures. High agreement was observed between dietitians for estimates of energy and macronutrient derived for both the NuDAM (ICC=0.77-0.99; p<0.001) and WFR (ICC=0.82-0.99; p<0.001). All subjects preferred using the NuDAM over the WFR to record intake and were willing to use the novel method again over longer recording periods. This research program explored two novel approaches which utilised distinct technologies to aid in the nutritional management of adults with T2DM. In particular, this thesis makes a significant contribution to the evidence base surrounding the use of PhRs through the development, trial and evaluation of a novel mobile phone photo/voice dietary record. The NuDAM is an extremely promising advancement in the nutritional management of individuals with diabetes and other chronic conditions. Future applications lie in integrating the NuDAM with other technologies to facilitate practice across the remaining stages of the nutrition care process.

Design and rationale of a Prospective, Observational European Multicenter study on the efficacy of acute surgical decompression after traumatic Spinal Cord Injury: the SCI-POEM study

Objectives:Despite many years of research, there is currently no treatment available that results in major neurological or functional recovery after traumatic spinal cord injury (tSCI). In particular, no conclusive data related to the role of the timing of decompressive surgery, and the impact of injury severity on its benefit, have been published to date. This paper presents a protocol that was designed to examine the hypothesized association between the timing of surgical decompression and the extent of neurological recovery in tSCI patients.Study design: The SCI-POEM study is a Prospective, Observational European Multicenter comparative cohort study. This study compares acute (<12 h) versus non-acute (>12 h, <2 weeks) decompressive surgery in patients with a traumatic spinal column injury and concomitant spinal cord injury. The sample size calculation was based on a representative European patient cohort of 492 tSCI patients. During a 4-year period, 300 patients will need to be enrolled from 10 trauma centers across Europe. The primary endpoint is lower-extremity motor score as assessed according to the 'International standards for neurological classification of SCI' at 12 months after injury. Secondary endpoints include motor, sensory, imaging and functional outcomes at 3, 6 and 12 months after injury.Conclusion:In order to minimize bias and reduce the impact of confounders, special attention is paid to key methodological principles in this study protocol. A significant difference in safety and/or efficacy endpoints will provide meaningful information to clinicians, as this would confirm the hypothesis that rapid referral to and treatment in specialized centers result in important improvements in tSCI patients.Spinal Cord advance online publication, 17 April 2012; doi:10.1038/sc.2012.34.

Prevalence of hallux valgus in the general population : a systematic review and meta-analysis

BACKGROUND: Hallux valgus (HV) is a foot deformity commonly seen in medical practice, often accompanied by significant functional disability and foot pain. Despite frequent mention in a diverse body of literature, a precise estimate of the prevalence of HV is difficult to ascertain. The purpose of this systematic review was to investigate prevalence of HV in the overall population and evaluate the influence of age and gender. METHODS: Electronic databases (Medline, Embase, and CINAHL) and reference lists of included papers were searched to June 2009 for papers on HV prevalence without language restriction. MeSH terms and keywords were used relating to HV or bunions, prevalence and various synonyms. Included studies were surveys reporting original data for prevalence of HV or bunions in healthy populations of any age group. Surveys reporting prevalence data grouped with other foot deformities and in specific disease groups (e.g. rheumatoid arthritis, diabetes) were excluded. Two independent investigators quality rated all included papers on the Epidemiological Appraisal Instrument. Data on raw prevalence, population studied and methodology were extracted. Prevalence proportions and the standard error were calculated, and meta-analysis was performed using a random effects model. RESULTS: A total of 78 papers reporting results of 76 surveys (total 496,957 participants) were included and grouped by study population for meta-analysis. Pooled prevalence estimates for HV were 23% in adults aged 18-65 years (CI: 16.3 to 29.6) and 35.7% in elderly people aged over 65 years (CI: 29.5 to 42.0). Prevalence increased with age and was higher in females [30% (CI: 22 to 38)] compared to males [13% (CI: 9 to 17)]. Potential sources of bias were sampling method, study quality and method of HV diagnosis. CONCLUSIONS: Notwithstanding the wide variation in estimates, it is evident that HV is prevalent; more so in females and with increasing age. Methodological quality issues need to be addressed in interpreting reports in the literature and in future research.

Two decades of exceptional achievements : does the evidence support nurses to favour Cochrane systematic reviews over other systematic reviews?

Systematic reviews (SRs) are increasingly recognised as the standard approach in summarising health research and influence clinical nursing practice and health care decisions (Coster and Norman, 2009, Grimshaw and Russell, 1993 and Griffiths and Norman, 2005). High quality SRs should have a clearly stated set of objectives with pre-defined eligibility criteria for studies; an explicit reproducible methodology; a systematic search that attempts to identify all studies that would meet the eligibility criteria; an assessment of the validity of the findings of the included studies; the assessment of risk of bias; and a systematic presentation and synthesis of the characteristics of findings of the included study (Higgins and Green, 2011). Although SRs are highly regarded and are expected to be rigorous, just as other research, their quality may vary (Choi et al., 2001 and Hoving et al., 2001)...

Nutritional support in chronic obstructive pulmonary disease: a systematic review and meta-analysis

BACKGROUND: The efficacy of nutritional support in the management of malnutrition in chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) is controversial. Previous meta-analyses, based on only cross-sectional analysis at the end of intervention trials, found no evidence of improved outcomes. OBJECTIVE: The objective was to conduct a meta-analysis of randomized controlled trials (RCTs) to clarify the efficacy of nutritional support in improving intake, anthropometric measures, and grip strength in stable COPD. DESIGN: Literature databases were searched to identify RCTs comparing nutritional support with controls in stable COPD. RESULTS: Thirteen RCTs (n = 439) of nutritional support [dietary advice (1 RCT), oral nutritional supplements (ONS; 11 RCTs), and enteral tube feeding (1 RCT)] with a control comparison were identified. An analysis of the changes induced by nutritional support and those obtained only at the end of the intervention showed significantly greater increases in mean total protein and energy intakes with nutritional support of 14.8 g and 236 kcal daily. Meta-analyses also showed greater mean (±SE) improvements in favor of nutritional support for body weight (1.94 ± 0.26 kg, P < 0.001; 11 studies, n = 308) and grip strength (5.3%, P < 0.050; 4 studies, n = 156), which was not shown by ANOVA at the end of the intervention, largely because of bias associated with baseline imbalance between groups. CONCLUSION: This systematic review and meta-analysis showed that nutritional support, mainly in the form of ONS, improves total intake, anthropometric measures, and grip strength in COPD. These results contrast with the results of previous analyses that were based on only cross-sectional measures at the end of intervention trials.

Explaining Gendered Sentencing Patterns for Men and Women in the Late Victorian Period

Contemporary studies of disparities in the sentencing of male and female offenders claim that the differences found are caused by gender-related contextual factors, but not by a gender bias. In contrast, historical studies have suggested that women were disadvantaged by appearing to offend both against the law and the conventions of femininity. This article analyses minor assaults prosecuted in ten English magistrates’ courts between 1880 and 1920. It is based on a data-set that combines court cases and newspaper reports, and allows for the control of gender differences in sentencing outcomes through four contextual factors: severity of the assault, bonds between victim and assailant, culpability, and evidence. The findings reveal a differentiated pattern of sentences that questions the assumption that ‘doubly deviant’ women were more often convicted, and received higher penalties, throughout the Victorian period. The results show that the contextual factors of the offence affected judicial decision-making to the extent that they virtually account for gender differences in conviction rates, but do not, on their own, account for the different penalties handed out to men and women. Women who committed similar assaults to men were likely to receive a lighter punishment. Magistrates clearly targeted ‘male’ contexts of violence, and handed down more convictions and harsher penalties to men involved in these, in contrast to women involved in 'female' contexts. The findings of a strong gender bias in sentencing that disadvantaged lowerclass men indicate that local magistrates directed their efforts of 'civilizing' lower-class communities at 'dangerous masculinities', and deemed assaults committed by women as less important in this task.

Methodological challenges when estimating the effects of season and seasonal exposures on birth outcomes

Background Many previous studies have found seasonal patterns in birth outcomes, but with little agreement about which season poses the highest risk. Some of the heterogeneity between studies may be explained by a previously unknown bias. The bias occurs in retrospective cohorts which include all births occurring within a fixed start and end date, which means shorter pregnancies are missed at the start of the study, and longer pregnancies are missed at the end. Our objective was to show the potential size of this bias and how to avoid it. Methods To demonstrate the bias we simulated a retrospective birth cohort with no seasonal pattern in gestation and used a range of cohort end dates. As a real example, we used a cohort of 114,063 singleton births in Brisbane between 1 July 2005 and 30 June 2009 and examined the bias when estimating changes in gestation length associated with season (using month of conception) and a seasonal exposure (temperature). We used survival analyses with temperature as a time-dependent variable. Results We found strong artificial seasonal patterns in gestation length by month of conception, which depended on the end date of the study. The bias was avoided when the day and month of the start date was just before the day and month of the end date (regardless of year), so that the longer gestations at the start of the study were balanced by the shorter gestations at the end. After removing the fixed cohort bias there was a noticeable change in the effect of temperature on gestation length. The adjusted hazard ratios were flatter at the extremes of temperature but steeper between 15 and 25°C. Conclusions Studies using retrospective birth cohorts should account for the fixed cohort bias by removing selected births to get unbiased estimates of seasonal health effects.

Corneal nerve structure and function as markers of diabetic neuropathy

Diabetic neuropathy is a significant clinical problem that currently has no effective therapy, and in advanced cases, leads to foot ulceration and lower limb amputation. The accurate detection, characterisation and quantification of this condition are important in order to define at-risk patients, anticipate deterioration, monitor progression and assess new therapies. This thesis evaluates novel corneal methods of assessing diabetic neuropathy. Over the past several years two new non-invasive corneal markers have emerged, and in cross-sectional studies have demonstrated their ability to stratify the severity of this disease. Corneal confocal microscopy (CCM) allows quantification of corneal nerve parameters and non-contact corneal aesthesiometry (NCCA), the presumed functional correlate of corneal structure, assesses the sensitivity of the cornea. Both these techniques are quick to perform, produce little or no discomfort for the patient, and with automatic analysis paradigms developed, are suitable for clinical settings. Each has advantages and disadvantages over established techniques for assessing diabetic neuropathy. New information is presented regarding measurement bias of CCM images, and a unique sampling paradigm and associated accuracy determination method of combinations is described. A novel high-speed corneal nerve mapping procedure has been developed and application of this procedure in individuals with neuropathy has revealed regions of sub-basal nerve plexus that dictate further evaluation, as they appear to show earlier signs of damage than the central region of the cornea that has to date been examined. The discriminative capacity of corneal sensitivity measured by NCCA is revealed to have reasonable potential as a marker of diabetic neuropathy. Application of these new corneal markers for longitudinal evaluation of diabetic neuropathy has the potential to reduce dependence on more invasive, costly, and time-consuming assessments, such as skin biopsy.

Gender gap in household investment : a study on Bhutan

Differing parental considerations for girls and boys in households are perceived as one of the primary causes of the gender gap in school enrolment and educational attainment in developing countries, particularly in the countries in Sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia. While there are a number of studies on the gender gap focusing on education and health provision in the countries in South Asia, little is known about Bhutan. This thesis aims to explore the gender gap in the intra-household allocation of resources on schooling and health provision for children in Bhutan. This thesis investigates whether boys are shown preference by their parents in terms of educational opportunities, including enrolment and spending on schooling as well as health. To conduct examination, this study makes use of household data from the Bhutan Living Standard Survey of 2007. Using cross-sectional as well as household fixed and random effect approaches, this study attempts to analyse the gender gap in allocation of resources across households as well as within households. The analysis includes characteristics of children and households such as gender and age of children, family wealth, education and gender of household head, number of dependents and the area of residence. The findings reveal a significant gender gap in schooling of children aged six to sixteen in Bhutan. However, no robust evidence of a gender gap has been found in the allocation of health expenditure on children aged less than sixteen. Policy recommendations to alleviate the gender bias in educational opportunities of females are proposed.

Evaluation of the iPhone with an acrylic sleeve versus the Scoliometer for rib hump measurement in scoliosis

Background. Vertebral rotation found in structural scoliosis contributes to trunkal asymmetry which is commonly measured with a simple Scoliometer device on a patient's thorax in the forward flexed position. The new generation of mobile 'smartphones' have an integrated accelerometer, making accurate angle measurement possible, which provides a potentially useful clinical tool for assessing rib hump deformity. This study aimed to compare rib hump angle measurements performed using a Smartphone and traditional Scoliometer on a set of plaster torsos representing the range of torsional deformities seen in clinical practice. Methods. Nine observers measured the rib hump found on eight plaster torsos moulded from scoliosis patients with both a Scoliometer and an Apple iPhone on separate occasions. Each observer repeated the measurements at least a week after the original measurements, and were blinded to previous results. Intra-observer reliability and inter-observer reliability were analysed using the method of Bland and Altman and 95% confidence intervals were calculated. The Intra-Class Correlation Coefficients (ICC) were calculated for repeated measurements of each of the eight plaster torso moulds by the nine observers. Results. Mean absolute difference between pairs of iPhone/Scoliometer measurements was 2.1 degrees, with a small (1 degrees) bias toward higher rib hump angles with the iPhone. 95% confidence intervals for intra-observer variability were +/- 1.8 degrees (Scoliometer) and +/- 3.2 degrees (iPhone). 95% confidence intervals for inter-observer variability were +/- 4.9 degrees (iPhone) and +/- 3.8 degrees (Scoliometer). The measurement errors and confidence intervals found were similar to or better than the range of previously published thoracic rib hump measurement studies. Conclusions. The iPhone is a clinically equivalent rib hump measurement tool to the Scoliometer in spinal deformity patients. The novel use of plaster torsos as rib hump models avoids the variables of patient fatigue and discomfort, inconsistent positioning and deformity progression using human subjects in a single or multiple measurement sessions.

Effects of simulated cataracts on speech intelligibility

Limited research is available on how well visual cues integrate with auditory cues to improve speech intelligibility in persons with visual impairments, such as cataracts. We investigated whether simulated cataracts interfered with participants’ ability to use visual cues to help disambiguate a spoken message in the presence of spoken background noise. We tested 21 young adults with normal visual acuity and hearing sensitivity. Speech intelligibility was tested under three conditions: auditory only with no visual input, auditory-visual with normal viewing, and auditory-visual with simulated cataracts. Central Institute for the Deaf (CID) Everyday Speech Sentences were spoken by a live talker, mimicking a pre-recorded audio track, in the presence of pre-recorded four-person background babble at a signal-to-noise ratio (SNR) of -13 dB. The talker was masked to the experimental conditions to control for experimenter bias. Relative to the normal vision condition, speech intelligibility was significantly poorer, [t (20) = 4.17, p < .01, Cohen’s d =1.0], in the simulated cataract condition. These results suggest that cataracts can interfere with speech perception, which may occur through a reduction in visual cues, less effective integration or a combination of the two effects. These novel findings contribute to our understanding of the association between two common sensory problems in adults: reduced contrast sensitivity associated with cataracts and reduced face-to-face communication in noise.

A mitochondrial genome phylogeny of termites (Blattodea: Termitoidae) : robust support for interfamilial relationships and molecular synapomorphies define major clades

Despite their ecological significance as decomposers and their evolutionary significance as the most speciose eusocial insect group outside the Hymenoptera, termite (Blattodea: Termitoidae or Isoptera) evolutionary relationships have yet to be well resolved. Previous morphological and molecular analyses strongly conflict at the family level and are marked by poor support for backbone nodes. A mitochondrial (mt) genome phylogeny of termites was produced to test relationships between the recognised termite families, improve nodal support and test the phylogenetic utility of rare genomic changes found in the termite mt genome. Complete mt genomes were sequenced for 7 of the 9 extant termite families with additional representatives of each of the two most speciose families Rhinotermitidae (3 of 7 subfamilies) and Termitidae (3 of 8 subfamilies). The mt genome of the well supported sister group of termites, the subsocial cockroach Cryptocercus, was also sequenced. A highly supported tree of termite relationships was produced by all analytical methods and data treatment approaches, however the relationship of the termites + Cryptocercus clade to other cockroach lineages was highly affected by the strong nucleotide compositional bias found in termites relative to other dictyopterans. The phylogeny supports previously proposed suprafamilial termite lineages, the Euisoptera and Neoisoptera, a later derived Kalotermitidae as sister group of the Neoisoptera and a monophyletic clade of dampwood (Stolotermitidae, Archotermopsidae) and harvester termites (Hodotermitidae). In contrast to previous termite phylogenetic studies, nodal supports were very high for family-level relationships within termites. Two rare genomic changes in the mt genome control region were found to be molecular synapomorphies for major clades. An elongated stem-loop structure defined the clade Polyphagidae + (Cryptocercus + termites), and a further series of compensatory base changes in this stem loop is synapomorphic for the Neoisoptera. The complicated repeat structures first identified in Reticulitermes, composed of short (A-type) and long (B-type repeats) defines the clade Heterotermitinae + Termitidae, while the secondary loss of A-type repeats is synapomorphic for the non-macrotermitine Termitidae.

Eliciting Expert Knowledge in Conservation Science

Expert knowledge is used widely in the science and practice of conservation because of the complexity of problems, relative lack of data, and the imminent nature of many conservation decisions. Expert knowledge is substantive information on a particular topic that is not widely known by others. An expert is someone who holds this knowledge and who is often deferred to in its interpretation. We refer to predictions by experts of what may happen in a particular context as expert judgments. In general, an expert-elicitation approach consists of five steps: deciding how information will be used, determining what to elicit, designing the elicitation process, performing the elicitation, and translating the elicited information into quantitative statements that can be used in a model or directly to make decisions. This last step is known as encoding. Some of the considerations in eliciting expert knowledge include determining how to work with multiple experts and how to combine multiple judgments, minimizing bias in the elicited information, and verifying the accuracy of expert information. We highlight structured elicitation techniques that, if adopted, will improve the accuracy and information content of expert judgment and ensure uncertainty is captured accurately. We suggest four aspects of an expert elicitation exercise be examined to determine its comprehensiveness and effectiveness: study design and context, elicitation design, elicitation method, and elicitation output. Just as the reliability of empirical data depends on the rigor with which it was acquired so too does that of expert knowledge.