Impact fees and new housing cost: A comparative analysis of the empirical models

Developers and policy makers are consistently at odds over the debate as to whether impact fees increase house prices. This debate continues despite the extensive body of theoretical and empirical international literature that discusses the passing on to home buyers of impact fees, and the corresponding increase to housing prices. In attempting to quantify this impact, over a dozen empirical studies have been carried out in the US and Canada since the 1980’s. However the methodologies used vary greatly, as do the results. Despite similar infrastructure funding policies in numerous developed countries, no such empirical works exist outside of the US/Canada. The purpose of this research is to analyse the existing econometric models in order to identify, compare and contrast the theoretical bases, methodologies, key assumptions and findings of each. This research will assist in identifying if further model development is required and/or whether any of these models have external validity and are readily transferable outside of the US. The findings conclude that there is very little explicit rationale behind the various model selections and that significant model deficiencies appear still to exist.

On being balanced in an unbalanced world

This paper examines the case of a procurement auction for a single project, in which the breakdown of the winning bid into its component items determines the value of payments subsequently made to bidder as the work progresses. Unbalanced bidding, or bid skewing, involves the uneven distribution of mark-up among the component items in such a way as to attempt to derive increased benefit to the unbalancer but without involving any change in the total bid. One form of unbalanced bidding for example, termed Front Loading (FL), is thought to be widespread in practice. This involves overpricing the work items that occur early in the project and underpricing the work items that occur later in the project in order to enhance the bidder's cash flow. Naturally, auctioners attempt to protect themselves from the effects of unbalancing—typically reserving the right to reject a bid that has been detected as unbalanced. As a result, models have been developed to both unbalance bids and detect unbalanced bids but virtually nothing is known of their use, success or otherwise. This is of particular concern for the detection methods as, without testing, there is no way of knowing the extent to which unbalanced bids are remaining undetected or balanced bids are being falsely detected as unbalanced. This paper reports on a simulation study aimed at demonstrating the likely effects of unbalanced bid detection models in a deterministic environment involving FL unbalancing in a Texas DOT detection setting, in which bids are deemed to be unbalanced if an item exceeds a maximum (or fails to reach a minimum) ‘cut-off’ value determined by the Texas method. A proportion of bids are automatically and maximally unbalanced over a long series of simulated contract projects and the profits and detection rates of both the balancers and unbalancers are compared. The results show that, as expected, the balanced bids are often incorrectly detected as unbalanced, with the rate of (mis)detection increasing with the proportion of FL bidders in the auction. It is also shown that, while the profit for balanced bidders remains the same irrespective of the number of FL bidders involved, the FL bidder's profit increases with the greater proportion of FL bidders present in the auction. Sensitivity tests show the results to be generally robust, with (mis)detection rates increasing further when there are fewer bidders in the auction and when more data are averaged to determine the baseline value, but being smaller or larger with increased cut-off values and increased cost and estimate variability depending on the number of FL bidders involved. The FL bidder's expected benefit from unbalancing, on the other hand, increases, when there are fewer bidders in the auction. It also increases when the cut-off rate and discount rate is increased, when there is less variability in the costs and their estimates, and when less data are used in setting the baseline values.

Benefit cost analysis applied to behavioral and engineering safety countermeasures in San Francisco, California

The state of the practice in safety has advanced rapidly in recent years with the emergence of new tools and processes for improving selection of the most cost-effective safety countermeasures. However, many challenges prevent fair and objective comparisons of countermeasures applied across safety disciplines (e.g. engineering, emergency services, and behavioral measures). These countermeasures operate at different spatial scales, are funded often by different financial sources and agencies, and have associated costs and benefits that are difficult to estimate. This research proposes a methodology by which both behavioral and engineering safety investments are considered and compared in a specific local context. The methodology involves a multi-stage process that enables the analyst to select countermeasures that yield high benefits to costs, are targeted for a particular project, and that may involve costs and benefits that accrue over varying spatial and temporal scales. The methodology is illustrated using a case study from the Geary Boulevard Corridor in San Francisco, California. The case study illustrates that: 1) The methodology enables the identification and assessment of a wide range of safety investment types at the project level; 2) The nature of crash histories lend themselves to the selection of both behavioral and engineering investments, requiring cooperation across agencies; and 3) The results of the cost-benefit analysis are highly sensitive to cost and benefit assumptions, and thus listing and justification of all assumptions is required. It is recommended that a sensitivity analyses be conducted when there is large uncertainty surrounding cost and benefit assumptions.

An assessment for cost effective maintenance and operation of the Callide Power Station electrical system, using reliability evaluation

The reliable operation of the electrical system at Callide Power Station is of extreme importance to the normal everyday running of the Station. This study applied the principles of reliability to do an analysis on the electrical system at Callide Power Station. It was found that the level of expected outage cost increased exponentially with a declining level of maintenance. Concluding that even in a harsh economic electricity market where CS Energy tries and push their plants to the limit, maintenance must not be neglected. A number of system configurations were found to increase the reliability of the system and reduce the expected outage costs. A number of other advantages were identified as a result of using reliability principles to do this study on the Callide electrical system configuration.

How safe is safe enough? : a socio-technical view of low-cost level crossing safety

Low-cost level crossings are often criticized as being unsafe. Does a SIL (safety integrity level) rating make the railway crossing any safer? This paper discusses how a supporting argument might be made for low-cost level crossing warning devices with lower levels of safety integrity and issues such as risk tolerability and derivation of tolerable hazard rates for system-level hazards. As part of the design of such systems according to fail-safe principles, the paper considers the assumptions around the pre-defined safe states of existing warning devices and how human factors issues around such states can give rise to additional hazards.

Optimally increasing secure connectivity in multihop wireless ad hoc networks

We consider the problem of how to maximize secure connectivity of multi-hop wireless ad hoc networks after deployment. Two approaches, based on graph augmentation problems with nonlinear edge costs, are formulated. The first one is based on establishing a secret key using only the links that are already secured by secret keys. This problem is in NP-hard and does not accept polynomial time approximation scheme PTAS since minimum cutsets to be augmented do not admit constant costs. The second one is based of increasing the power level between a pair of nodes that has a secret key to enable them physically connect. This problem can be formulated as the optimal key establishment problem with interference constraints with bi-objectives: (i) maximizing the concurrent key establishment flow, (ii) minimizing the cost. We show that both problems are NP-hard and MAX-SNP (i.e., it is NP-hard to approximate them within a factor of 1 + e for e > 0 ) with a reduction to MAX3SAT problem. Thus, we design and implement a fully distributed algorithm for authenticated key establishment in wireless sensor networks where each sensor knows only its one- hop neighborhood. Our witness based approaches find witnesses in multi-hop neighborhood to authenticate the key establishment between two sensor nodes which do not share a key and which are not connected through a secure path.

The cost of being perfect : perfectionism and suicide ideation in university students

Objective: The aim of the study was to assess the relationship between dimensions of perfectionism and suicide ideation in a tertiary student population in Australia. Method: The methodology involved 405 students completing the General Health Questionnaire (GHQ-28) which includes a subset of questions which can be used to assess suicide ideation, and the Multidimensional Perfectionism Scale. Results: The presence of suicide ideation was associated with higher scores on total perfectionism and two perfectionism dimensions, and total GHQ scores. There were significant differences between participants with high levels of perfectionism and participants with moderate to low levels of perfectionism on a measure of suicide ideation. Neither gender nor age were associated with differences in the scores, with results indicating high levels of perfectionism may indicate a vulnerability to suicide ideation. Conclusions: Perfectionism is a valued attribute in high-achieving populations. The question needs to be asked, however, at what cost? The findings indicate that high levels of perfectionism may be associated with an increased vulnerability to suicide ideation. Future research is needed to gain a better understanding of the complex interrelationship between personality and temperament, environmental factors and self-destructive behaviour.

The cost of being ethical : evidence from Islamic equity funds

This paper examines the relationship between financial performance and ethical screening intensity of a special class of ethical funds that is rooted in Islamic values – Islamic equity funds (IEFs). These faith-based ethical funds screen investments on compliance with Islamic values where conventional interest expense (riba), gambling (maysir), excessive uncertainty (gharar), and non-ethical (non-halal) products are prohibited. We test whether these extra screens affect the financial performance of IEFs relative to non-Islamic funds. Based on a large survivorship-free international sample of 387 Islamic funds, our results show that IEFs on average underperform conventional funds by 40 basis points per month, or 4.8% per year (supporting the underperformance hypothesis). While Islamic funds do not generally perform better during crisis periods, they outperformed conventional funds during the recent sub-prime crisis (supporting the outperformance hypothesis). Using holdings-based measures for ethical screening intensity, results show IEFs that apply more intensive screening perform worse, suggesting that there is a cost to being ethical.

The cost of carbon : capital market effects of the proposed emission trading scheme (ETS)

In March 2008, the Australian Government announced its intention to introduce a national Emissions Trading Scheme (ETS), now expected to start in 2015. This impending development provides an ideal setting to investigate the impact an ETS in Australia will have on the market valuation of Australian Securities Exchange (ASX) firms. This is the first empirical study into the pricing effects of the ETS in Australia. Primarily, we hypothesize that firm value will be negatively related to a firm's carbon intensity profile. That is, there will be a greater impact on firm value for high carbon emitters in the period prior (2007) to the introduction of the ETS, whether for reasons relating to the existence of unbooked liabilities associated with future compliance and/or abatement costs, or for reasons relating to reduced future earnings. Using a sample of 58 Australian listed firms (constrained by the current availability of emissions data) which comprise larger, more profitable and less risky listed Australian firms, we first undertake an event study focusing on five distinct information events argued to impact the probability of the proposed ETS being enacted. Here, we find direct evidence that the capital market is indeed pricing the proposed ETS. Second, using a modified version of the Ohlson (1995) valuation model, we undertake a valuation analysis designed not only to complement the event study results, but more importantly to provide insights into the capital market's assessment of the magnitude of the economic impact of the proposed ETS as reflected in market capitalization. Here, our results show that the market assesses the most carbon intensive sample firms a market value decrement relative to other sample firms of between 7% and 10% of market capitalization. Further, based on the carbon emission profile of the sample firms we imply a ‘future carbon permit price’ of between AUD$17 per tonne and AUD$26 per tonne of carbon dioxide emitted. This study is more precise than industry reports, which set a carbon price of between AUD$15 to AUD$74 per tonne.

Complexity of increasing the secure connectivity in wireless ad hoc networks

We consider the problem of maximizing the secure connectivity in wireless ad hoc networks, and analyze complexity of the post-deployment key establishment process constrained by physical layer properties such as connectivity, energy consumption and interference. Two approaches, based on graph augmentation problems with nonlinear edge costs, are formulated. The first one is based on establishing a secret key using only the links that are already secured by shared keys. This problem is in NP-hard and does not accept polynomial time approximation scheme PTAS since minimum cutsets to be augmented do not admit constant costs. The second one extends the first problem by increasing the power level between a pair of nodes that has a secret key to enable them physically connect. This problem can be formulated as the optimal key establishment problem with interference constraints with bi-objectives: (i) maximizing the concurrent key establishment flow, (ii) minimizing the cost. We prove that both problems are NP-hard and MAX-SNP with a reduction to MAX3SAT problem.

Mobile cost estimating

Martin Skitmore introduces a most "remarkable couple", Rod and Annie Stewart of Huntsville, Alabama (and elsewhere), and their post retirement business, Mobile Data Services. Contrary to popular expectations, Rod and Annie are not only computer-friendly, but are almost entirely dependent on the new technology for their survival.

Surgical site infection prevention following total hip arthroplasty in Australia : a cost-effectiveness analysis

Background: Surgical site infection (SSI) is associated with substantial costs for health services, reduced quality of life, and functional outcomes. The aim of this study was to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of strategies claiming to reduce the risk of SSI in hip arthroplasty in Australia. Methods: Baseline use of antibiotic prophylaxis (AP) was compared with no antibiotic prophylaxis (no AP), antibiotic-impregnated cement (AP þ ABC), and laminar air operating rooms (AP þ LOR). A Markov model was used to simulate long-term health and cost outcomes of a hypothetical cohort of 30,000 total hip arthroplasty patients from a health services perspective. Model parameters were informed by the best available evidence. Uncertainty was explored in probabilistic sensitivity and scenario analyses. Results: Stopping the routine use of AP resulted in over Australian dollars (AUD) $1.5 million extra costs and a loss of 163 quality-adjusted life years (QALYs). Using antibiotic cement in addition to AP (AP þ ABC)generated an extra 32 QALYs while saving over AUD $123,000. The use of laminar air operating rooms combined with routine AP (AP þ LOR) resulted in an AUD $4.59 million cost increase and 127 QALYs lost compared with the baseline comparator. Conclusion: Preventing deep SSI with antibiotic prophylaxis and antibiotic-impregnated cement has shown to improve health outcomes among hospitalized patients, save lives, and enhance resource allocation. Based on this evidence, the use of laminar air operating rooms is not recommended.