Spatial and temporal analysis of Barmah Forest virus disease in Queensland, Australia

Barmah Forest virus (BFV) disease is one of the most widespread mosquito-borne diseases in Australia. The number of outbreaks and the incidence rate of BFV in Australia have attracted growing concerns about the spatio-temporal complexity and underlying risk factors of BFV disease. A large number of notifications has been recorded continuously in Queensland since 1992. Yet, little is known about the spatial and temporal characteristics of the disease. I aim to use notification data to better understand the effects of climatic, demographic, socio-economic and ecological risk factors on the spatial epidemiology of BFV disease transmission, develop predictive risk models and forecast future disease risks under climate change scenarios. Computerised data files of daily notifications of BFV disease and climatic variables in Queensland during 1992-2008 were obtained from Queensland Health and Australian Bureau of Meteorology, respectively. Projections on climate data for years 2025, 2050 and 2100 were obtained from Council of Scientific Industrial Research Organisation. Data on socio-economic, demographic and ecological factors were also obtained from relevant government departments as follows: 1) socio-economic and demographic data from Australian Bureau of Statistics; 2) wetlands data from Department of Environment and Resource Management and 3) tidal readings from Queensland Department of Transport and Main roads. Disease notifications were geocoded and spatial and temporal patterns of disease were investigated using geostatistics. Visualisation of BFV disease incidence rates through mapping reveals the presence of substantial spatio-temporal variation at statistical local areas (SLA) over time. Results reveal high incidence rates of BFV disease along coastal areas compared to the whole area of Queensland. A Mantel-Haenszel Chi-square analysis for trend reveals a statistically significant relationship between BFV disease incidence rates and age groups (ƒÓ2 = 7587, p<0.01). Semi-variogram analysis and smoothed maps created from interpolation techniques indicate that the pattern of spatial autocorrelation was not homogeneous across the state. A cluster analysis was used to detect the hot spots/clusters of BFV disease at a SLA level. Most likely spatial and space-time clusters are detected at the same locations across coastal Queensland (p<0.05). The study demonstrates heterogeneity of disease risk at a SLA level and reveals the spatial and temporal clustering of BFV disease in Queensland. Discriminant analysis was employed to establish a link between wetland classes, climate zones and BFV disease. This is because the importance of wetlands in the transmission of BFV disease remains unclear. The multivariable discriminant modelling analyses demonstrate that wetland types of saline 1, riverine and saline tidal influence were the most significant risk factors for BFV disease in all climate and buffer zones, while lacustrine, palustrine, estuarine and saline 2 and saline 3 wetlands were less important. The model accuracies were 76%, 98% and 100% for BFV risk in subtropical, tropical and temperate climate zones, respectively. This study demonstrates that BFV disease risk varied with wetland class and climate zone. The study suggests that wetlands may act as potential breeding habitats for BFV vectors. Multivariable spatial regression models were applied to assess the impact of spatial climatic, socio-economic and tidal factors on the BFV disease in Queensland. Spatial regression models were developed to account for spatial effects. Spatial regression models generated superior estimates over a traditional regression model. In the spatial regression models, BFV disease incidence shows an inverse relationship with minimum temperature, low tide and distance to coast, and positive relationship with rainfall in coastal areas whereas in whole Queensland the disease shows an inverse relationship with minimum temperature and high tide and positive relationship with rainfall. This study determines the most significant spatial risk factors for BFV disease across Queensland. Empirical models were developed to forecast the future risk of BFV disease outbreaks in coastal Queensland using existing climatic, socio-economic and tidal conditions under climate change scenarios. Logistic regression models were developed using BFV disease outbreak data for the existing period (2000-2008). The most parsimonious model had high sensitivity, specificity and accuracy and this model was used to estimate and forecast BFV disease outbreaks for years 2025, 2050 and 2100 under climate change scenarios for Australia. Important contributions arising from this research are that: (i) it is innovative to identify high-risk coastal areas by creating buffers based on grid-centroid and the use of fine-grained spatial units, i.e., mesh blocks; (ii) a spatial regression method was used to account for spatial dependence and heterogeneity of data in the study area; (iii) it determined a range of potential spatial risk factors for BFV disease; and (iv) it predicted the future risk of BFV disease outbreaks under climate change scenarios in Queensland, Australia. In conclusion, the thesis demonstrates that the distribution of BFV disease exhibits a distinct spatial and temporal variation. Such variation is influenced by a range of spatial risk factors including climatic, demographic, socio-economic, ecological and tidal variables. The thesis demonstrates that spatial regression method can be applied to better understand the transmission dynamics of BFV disease and its risk factors. The research findings show that disease notification data can be integrated with multi-factorial risk factor data to develop build-up models and forecast future potential disease risks under climate change scenarios. This thesis may have implications in BFV disease control and prevention programs in Queensland.

Surveillance of dengue fever virus: a review of epidemiological models and early warning systems

Dengue fever is one of the world’s most important vector-borne diseases. The transmission area of this disease continues to expand due to many factors including urban sprawl, increased travel and global warming. Current preventative techniques are primarily based on controlling mosquito vectors as other prophylactic measures, such as a tetravalent vaccine are unlikely to be available in the foreseeable future. However, the continually increasing dengue incidence suggests that this strategy alone is not sufficient. Epidemiological models attempt to predict future outbreaks using information on the risk factors of the disease. Through a systematic literature review, this paper aims at analyzing the different modeling methods and their outputs in terms of accurately predicting disease outbreaks. We found that many previous studies have not sufficiently accounted for the spatio-temporal features of the disease in the modeling process. Yet with advances in technology, the ability to incorporate such information as well as the socio-environmental aspect allowed for its use as an early warning system, albeit limited geographically to a local scale.

Structural dissection of Ebola virus and its assembly determinants using cryo-electron tomography

Ebola virus is a highly pathogenic filovirus causing severe hemorrhagic fever with high mortality rates. It assembles heterogenous, filamentous, enveloped virus particles containing a negative-sense, single-stranded RNA genome packaged within a helical nucleocapsid (NC). We have used cryo-electron microscopy and tomography to visualize Ebola virus particles, as well as Ebola virus-like particles, in three dimensions in a near-native state. The NC within the virion forms a left-handed helix with an inner nucleoprotein layer decorated with protruding arms composed of VP24 and VP35. A comparison with the closely related Marburg virus shows that the N-terminal region of nucleoprotein defines the inner diameter of the Ebola virus NC, whereas the RNA genome defines its length. Binding of the nucleoprotein to RNA can assemble a loosely coiled NC-like structure; the loose coil can be condensed by binding of the viral matrix protein VP40 to the C terminus of the nucleoprotein, and rigidified by binding of VP24 and VP35 to alternate copies of the nucleoprotein. Four proteins (NP, VP24, VP35, and VP40) are necessary and sufficient to mediate assembly of an NC with structure, symmetry, variability, and flexibility indistinguishable from that in Ebola virus particles released from infected cells. Together these data provide a structural and architectural description of Ebola virus and define the roles of viral proteins in its structure and assembly

Editorial : infectious disease modelling

The aim of this Special Issue is to collect together a group of outstanding applied mathematics research articles that provide new insight into our understanding of infectious diseases and infectious disease modelling. The scope of the articles is broad, encompassing both specific applications of modelling to particular examples of infectious diseases, as well as articles that are devoted to the development of more general theoretical insight.

An influenza virus inspired polymer system for the timed release of siRNA

Small interfering RNA silences specific genes by interfering with mRNA translation, and acts to modulate or inhibit specific biological pathways; a therapy that holds great promise in the cure of many diseases. However, the naked small interfering RNA is susceptible to degradation by plasma and tissue nucleases and due to its negative charge unable to cross the cell membrane. Here we report a new polymer carrier designed to mimic the influenza virus escape mechanism from the endosome, followed by a timed release of the small interfering RNA in the cytosol through a self-catalyzed polymer degradation process. Our polymer changes to a negatively charged and non-toxic polymer after the release of small interfering RNA, presenting potential for multiple repeat doses and long-term treatment of diseases.

Hepatitis C : a socio-cultural perspective on the effects of a new virus on a community’s health

Since the emergence of diagnostic medical tests in Australia in 1990, hepatitis C (HCV) has been shown to account for over 90 percent of all non-A non-B hepatitis, revealing it to be a widespread and major public health problem. The diagnosis of HCV involves a diverse range of issues for affected persons, introducing identity and lifestyle changes, which are commonly articulated through psychological concepts. In this article we argue that it is important to examine the broader social and cultural contexts that contribute to the experiences of persons affected by HCV. The thematic analysis of qualitative data from six individuals diagnosed with HCV is included to exemplify some of the processes that are involved in the changing identity of a person following a positive diagnosis. The theoretical framework for the interpretation of these processes is interpretive interactionism. In this research, we are attempting to extend the understanding of the effects of HCV diagnoses beyond internal, psychological processes by examining how these diagnoses transform some of the processes of self-formation and expression. The participants’ experiences indicate that there are at least four dimensions of self that were significant to their changing sense of self: relationship of self to others; the emotional self; self-stories and identity; and self-scrutiny and relationships. We conclude that a socio-cultural perspective contributes to the explanation of the transition period following a HCV-positive diagnosis and the redefinition of self towards a HCV status.

Recent emergence of dengue virus serotype 4 in French Polynesia results from multiple introductions from other south pacific islands

BACKGROUND: Infection by dengue virus (DENV) is a major public health concern in hundreds of tropical and subtropical countries. French Polynesia (FP) regularly experiences epidemics that initiate, or are consecutive to, DENV circulation in other South Pacific Island Countries (SPICs). In January 2009, after a decade of serotype 1 (DENV-1) circulation, the first cases of DENV-4 infection were reported in FP. Two months later a new epidemic emerged, occurring about 20 years after the previous circulation of DENV-4 in FP. In this study, we investigated the epidemiological and molecular characteristics of the introduction, spread and genetic microevolution of DENV-4 in FP. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: Epidemiological data suggested that recent transmission of DENV-4 in FP started in the Leeward Islands and this serotype quickly displaced DENV-1 throughout FP. Phylogenetic analyses of the nucleotide sequences of the envelope (E) gene of 64 DENV-4 strains collected in FP in the 1980s and in 2009-2010, and some additional strains from other SPICs showed that DENV-4 strains from the SPICs were distributed into genotypes IIa and IIb. Recent FP strains were distributed into two clusters, each comprising viruses from other but distinct SPICs, suggesting that emergence of DENV-4 in FP in 2009 resulted from multiple introductions. Otherwise, we observed that almost all strains collected in the SPICs in the 1980s exhibit an amino acid (aa) substitution V287I within domain I of the E protein, and all recent South Pacific strains exhibit a T365I substitution within domain III. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: This study confirmed the cyclic re-emergence and displacement of DENV serotypes in FP. Otherwise, our results showed that specific aa substitutions on the E protein were present on all DENV-4 strains circulating in SPICs. These substitutions probably acquired and subsequently conserved could reflect a founder effect to be associated with epidemiological, geographical, eco-biological and social specificities in SPICs.

Mailed versus frozen transport of nasal swabs for surveillance of respiratory bacteria in remote Indigenous communities in Australia

Background Surveillance programs and research for acute respiratory infections in remote Australian communities are complicated by difficulties in the storage and transport of frozen samples to urban laboratories for testing. This study assessed the sensitivity of a simple method for transporting nasal swabs from a remote setting for bacterial polymerase chain reaction (PCR) testing. Methods We sampled every individual who presented to a remote community clinic over a three week period in August at a time of low influenza and no respiratory syncytial virus activity. Two anterior nasal swabs were collected from each participant. The left nare specimen was mailed to the laboratory via routine postal services. The right nare specimen was transported frozen. Testing for six bacterial species was undertaken using real-time PCR. Results One hundred and forty participants were enrolled who contributed 150 study visits and paired specimens for testing. Respiratory illnesses accounted for 10% of the reasons for presentation. Bacteria were identified in 117 (78%) presentations for 110 (79.4%) individuals; Streptococcus pneumoniae and Haemophilus influenzae were the most common (each identified in 58% of episodes). The overall sensitivity for any bacterium detected in mailed specimens was 82.2% (95% CI 73.6, 88.1) compared to 94.8% (95% CI 89.4, 98.1) for frozen specimens. The sensitivity of the two methods varied by species identified. Conclusion The mailing of unfrozen nasal specimens from remote communities appears to influence the utility of the specimen for bacterial studies, with a loss in sensitivity for the detection of any species overall. Further studies are needed to confirm our finding and to investigate the possible mechanisms of effect. Clinical trial registration Australia and New Zealand Clinical Trials Registry Number: ACTRN12609001006235. Keywords: Respiratory bacteria; RT-PCR; Specimen transport; Laboratory methods

Development of an integrated metabolomic profiling approach for infectious diseases research

Metabolomic profiling offers direct insights into the chemical environment and metabolic pathway activities at sites of human disease. During infection, this environment may receive important contributions from both host and pathogen. Here we apply an untargeted metabolomics approach to identify compounds associated with an E. coli urinary tract infection population. Correlative and structural data from minimally processed samples were obtained using an optimized LC-MS platform capable of resolving ~2300 molecular features. Principal component analysis readily distinguished patient groups and multiple supervised chemometric analyses resolved robust metabolomic shifts between groups. These analyses revealed nine compounds whose provisional structures suggest candidate infection-associated endocrine, catabolic, and lipid pathways. Several of these metabolite signatures may derive from microbial processing of host metabolites. Overall, this study highlights the ability of metabolomic approaches to directly identify compounds encountered by, and produced from, bacterial pathogens within human hosts.

Ross River virus evolution : implications for vaccine development

Ross River virus is a mosquito-borne alphavirus that causes approximately 5000 cases of epidemic polyarthritis in Australia each year and has direct medical-associated costs of approximately US$15 million annually. While mosquito control programs are able, at best, to contain rather than prevent this disease, natural infection with Ross River virus confers lifelong protection against subsequent clinical infection. A killed-virus vaccine has been developed, which is in Phase III clinical trials. Analyses of intra-host genetic diversity and of long-term evolutionary changes in Ross River virus populations suggest that antigenic variation is unlikely to pose a threat to the efficacy of this vaccine.

Epstein-Barr virus-positive diffuse large B-cell lymphoma of the elderly expresses EBNA3A with conserved CD8+ T-cell epitopes

Post-transplantation lymphoproliferative disorders (PTLD) arise in the immunosuppressed and are frequently Epstein-Barr virus (EBV) associated. The most common PTLD histological sub-type is diffuse large B-cell lymphoma (EBV+DLBCL-PTLD). Restoration of EBV-specific T-cell immunity can induce EBV+DLBCL-PTLD regression. The most frequent B-cell lymphoma in the immunocompetent is also DLBCL. ‘EBV-positive DLBCL of the elderly’ (EBV+DLBCL) is a rare but well-recognized DLBCL entity that occurs in the overtly immunocompetent, that has an adverse outcome relative to EBV-negative DLBCL. Unlike PTLD (which is classified as viral latency III), literature suggests EBV+DLBCL is typically latency II, i.e. expression is limited to the immuno-subdominant EBNA1, LMP1 and LMP2 EBV-proteins. If correct, this would be a major impediment for T-cell immunotherapeutic strategies. Unexpectedly we observed EBV+DLBCL-PTLD and EBV+DLBCL both shared features consistent with type III EBV-latency, including expression of the immuno-dominant EBNA3A protein. Extensive analysis showed frequent polymorphisms in EBNA1 and LMP1 functionally defined CD8+ T-cell epitope encoding regions, whereas EBNA3A polymorphisms were very rare making this an attractive immunotherapy target. As with EBV+DLBCL-PTLD, the antigen presenting machinery within lymphomatous nodes was intact. EBV+DLBCL express EBNA3A suggesting it is amenable to immunotherapeutic strategies.

High seroprevalence of antibodies to varicella zoster virus in adult women in a tropical climate

OBJECTIVES To determine whether the seroprevalence of antibodies to varicella zoster virus (VZV) in adults is similar to that reported in tropical populations elsewhere. METHODS We measured the seroprevalence of VZV IgG antibodies, using an enzyme immunoassay (EIA) in women attending an antenatal clinic in an urban centre in tropical Australia. RESULTS The overall seroprevalence of VZV antibodies in 298 women was 92% (95% CI 88-95), with no difference between women who spent their childhoods in the tropics and colleagues. None of the overseas-born women was seronegative. CONCLUSION The seroprevalence of VZV antibodies in this tropical population in Australia is as high as that reported from temperate regions, suggesting that social and cultural factors and population mobility are more important determinants of age distribution of VZV immunity than tropical climate.

Lower respiratory infections in Australian Indigenous children

Despite Australia being one of the wealthiest countries of the world, Australian Indigenous children have a health status and social circumstance comparable to developing countries. Indigenous infants have 10 times the mortality rate for respiratory conditions. The lower respiratory infection (LRI) rate in Australian Indigenous children is at least as high as that of children in developing countries; the frequency of hospitalisations of Indigenous infants is triple that of non-Indigenous Australian infants (201.7 vs. 62.6/1000, respectively). While Indigenous Australian children have many risk factors for LRIs described in developing countries, there is little specific data, and hence, evidence-based intervention points are yet to be identified. Efficacy of conjugate vaccines for common bacterial causes of pneumonia has been less marked in Indigenous children than that documented overseas. Gaps in the management and prevention of disease are glaring. Given the burden of LRI in Indigenous children and the association with long-term respiratory dysfunction, LRIs should be addressed as a matter of priority.

Does a 10-valent pneumococcal-Haemophilus influenzae protein D conjugate vaccine prevent respiratory exacerbations in children with recurrent protracted bacterial bronchitis, chronic suppurative lung disease and bronchiectasis : protocol for a randomised controlled trial

Background Recurrent protracted bacterial bronchitis (PBB), chronic suppurative lung disease (CSLD) and bronchiectasis are characterised by a chronic wet cough and are important causes of childhood respiratory morbidity globally. Haemophilus influenzae and Streptococcus pneumoniae are the most commonly associated pathogens. As respiratory exacerbations impair quality of life and may be associated with disease progression, we will determine if the novel 10-valent pneumococcal-Haemophilus influenzae protein D conjugate vaccine (PHiD-CV) reduces exacerbations in these children. Methods A multi-centre, parallel group, double-blind, randomised controlled trial in tertiary paediatric centres from three Australian cities is planned. Two hundred six children aged 18 months to 14 years with recurrent PBB, CSLD or bronchiectasis will be randomised to receive either two doses of PHiD-CV or control meningococcal (ACYW(135)) conjugate vaccine 2 months apart and followed for 12 months after the second vaccine dose. Randomisation will be stratified by site, age (<6 years and >= 6 years) and aetiology (recurrent PBB or CSLD/bronchiectasis). Clinical histories, respiratory status (including spirometry in children aged >= 6 years), nasopharyngeal and saliva swabs, and serum will be collected at baseline and at 2, 3, 8 and 14 months post-enrolment. Local and systemic reactions will be recorded on daily diaries for 7 and 30 days, respectively, following each vaccine dose and serious adverse events monitored throughout the trial. Fortnightly, parental contact will help record respiratory exacerbations. The primary outcome is the incidence of respiratory exacerbations in the 12 months following the second vaccine dose. Secondary outcomes include: nasopharyngeal carriage of H. influenzae and S. pneumoniae vaccine and vaccine-related serotypes; systemic and mucosal immune responses to H. influenzae proteins and S. pneumoniae vaccine and vaccine-related serotypes; impact upon lung function in children aged >= 6 years; and vaccine safety. Discussion As H. influenzae is the most common bacterial pathogen associated with these chronic respiratory diseases in children, a novel pneumococcal conjugate vaccine that also impacts upon H. influenzae and helps prevent respiratory exacerbations would assist clinical management with potential short- and long-term health benefits. Our study will be the first to assess vaccine efficacy targeting H. influenzae in children with recurrent PBB, CSLD and bronchiectasis.

Successful application of a simple specimen transport method for the conduct of respiratory virus surveillance in remote Indigenous communities in Australia

Objective Surveillance programs and research for acute respiratory infections in remote Aboriginal communities are complicated by difficulties in the storage and transport of frozen samples to urban laboratories for testing. This study assessed the sensitivity of a simple method for transporting respiratory samples from a remote setting for viral PCR compared with frozen specimens. Methods We sampled every individual who presented to a remote Aboriginal community clinic in a non-epidemic respiratory season. Two anterior nasal swabs were collected from each participant. The left nare specimen was mailed to the laboratory via routine postal services. The right nare specimen was transported frozen. Testing for 16 viruses was undertaken using real-time multiplex PCR. Results A total of 140 participants were enrolled who contributed 150 study visits. Respiratory illnesses accounted for 10% of the reasons for presentation. Sixty-one viruses were identified in 50 (33.3%) presentations for 40 (28.6%) individuals; bocavirus and rhinovirus were the most common viruses identified (14.0% and 12.6% of episodes respectively). The sensitivity for any virus detected in mailed specimens was 67.2% (95%CI 55.4, 78.9) compared to 65.6% (95%CI 53.7, 77.5) for frozen specimens. Conclusion The mailing of unfrozen nasal specimens from remote communities does not compromise the viability of the specimen for viral studies.