A flexible asset maintenance decision-making process model

Optimal Asset Maintenance decisions are imperative for efficient asset management. Decision Support Systems are often used to help asset managers make maintenance decisions, but high quality decision support must be based on sound decision-making principles. For long-lived assets, a successful Asset Maintenance decision-making process must effectively handle multiple time scales. For example, high-level strategic plans are normally made for periods of years, while daily operational decisions may need to be made within a space of mere minutes. When making strategic decisions, one usually has the luxury of time to explore alternatives, whereas routine operational decisions must often be made with no time for contemplation. In this paper, we present an innovative, flexible decision-making process model which distinguishes meta-level decision making, i.e., deciding how to make decisions, from the information gathering and analysis steps required to make the decisions themselves. The new model can accommodate various decision types. Three industrial case studies are given to demonstrate its applicability.

Flexural-torsional buckling tests of cold-formed steel compression members at elevated temperatures

Current design standards do not provide adequate guidelines for the fire design of cold-formed steel compression members subject to flexural-torsional buckling. Eurocode 3 Part 1.2 (2005) recommends the same fire design guidelines for both hot-rolled and cold-formed steel compression members subject to flexural-torsional buckling although considerable behavioural differences exist between cold-formed and hot-rolled steel members. Past research has recommended the use of ambient temperature cold-formed steel design rules for the fire design of cold-formed steel compression members provided appropriately reduced mechanical properties are used at elevated temperatures. To assess the accuracy of flexural-torsional buckling design rules in both ambient temperature cold-formed steel design and fire design standards, an experimental study of slender cold-formed steel compression members was undertaken at both ambient and elevated temperatures. This paper presents the details of this experimental study, its results, and their comparison with the predictions from the current design rules. It was found that the current ambient temperature design rules are conservative while the fire design rules are overly conservative. Suitable recommendations have been made in relation to the currently available design rules for flexural-torsional buckling including methods of improvement. Most importantly, this paper has addressed the lack of experimental results for slender cold-formed steel columns at elevated temperatures.

Improving asset management process modelling and integration

Asset management (AM) processes play an important role in assisting enterprises to manage their assets more efficiently. To visualise and improve AM processes, the processes need to be modelled using certain process modelling methodologies. Understanding the requirements for AM process modelling is essential for selecting or developing effective AM process modelling methodologies. However, little research has been done on analysing the requirements. This paper attempts to fill this gap by investigating the features of AM processes. It is concluded that AM process modelling requires intuitive representation of its processes, ‘fast’ implementation of the process modelling, effective evaluation of the processes and sound system integration.

Utilising Reliability and Condition Monitoring Data for Asset Health Prognosis

The ability to forecast machinery health is vital to reducing maintenance costs, operation downtime and safety hazards. Recent advances in condition monitoring technologies have given rise to a number of prognostic models which attempt to forecast machinery health based on condition data such as vibration measurements. This paper demonstrates how the population characteristics and condition monitoring data (both complete and suspended) of historical items can be integrated for training an intelligent agent to predict asset health multiple steps ahead. The model consists of a feed-forward neural network whose training targets are asset survival probabilities estimated using a variation of the Kaplan–Meier estimator and a degradation-based failure probability density function estimator. The trained network is capable of estimating the future survival probabilities when a series of asset condition readings are inputted. The output survival probabilities collectively form an estimated survival curve. Pump data from a pulp and paper mill were used for model validation and comparison. The results indicate that the proposed model can predict more accurately as well as further ahead than similar models which neglect population characteristics and suspended data. This work presents a compelling concept for longer-range fault prognosis utilising available information more fully and accurately.

Road Pricing - Is it Acceptable for a Developing Country?

Dhaka, which is the capital of Bangladesh, is facing serious traffic congestion and whole traffic situation in Dhaka is in chaos. Government has initiated some projects; such as BRT, MRT and elevated expressway; to improve the situation. Road pricing is very popular concept, which can be implemented in Dhaka with BRT and MRT as an integrated manner. Even though it is very popular concept not many countries except some developed countries implemented road pricing practically. None of the developing countries adopted this policy. For success of road pricing it has to be acceptable among the stakeholders. Public are the main stakeholders for road pricing. This paper will explore whether road pricing will be acceptable in Dhaka considering only work trip in Dhaka. A sample of workers had been surveyed randomly. They were asked some demographic questions, such as age, gender, income and educational qualification; how they travelled to work; and whether they would accept road pricing; and if they would not accept road pricing the reasons behind that. Also respondents were given several hypothetical choices to see how respondents react with different road charge by choosing travel mode for their work trip. The methodological approach taken for analysis is qualitative and quantitative analysis. For quantitative analysis Binary Logit Regression analysis was carried out to find out the significant factors for accepting or not accepting road pricing.

Asset health prediction using the explicit hazard model

The ability to estimate the asset reliability and the probability of failure is critical to reducing maintenance costs, operation downtime, and safety hazards. Predicting the survival time and the probability of failure in future time is an indispensable requirement in prognostics and asset health management. In traditional reliability models, the lifetime of an asset is estimated using failure event data, alone; however, statistically sufficient failure event data are often difficult to attain in real-life situations due to poor data management, effective preventive maintenance, and the small population of identical assets in use. Condition indicators and operating environment indicators are two types of covariate data that are normally obtained in addition to failure event and suspended data. These data contain significant information about the state and health of an asset. Condition indicators reflect the level of degradation of assets while operating environment indicators accelerate or decelerate the lifetime of assets. When these data are available, an alternative approach to the traditional reliability analysis is the modelling of condition indicators and operating environment indicators and their failure-generating mechanisms using a covariate-based hazard model. The literature review indicates that a number of covariate-based hazard models have been developed. All of these existing covariate-based hazard models were developed based on the principle theory of the Proportional Hazard Model (PHM). However, most of these models have not attracted much attention in the field of machinery prognostics. Moreover, due to the prominence of PHM, attempts at developing alternative models, to some extent, have been stifled, although a number of alternative models to PHM have been suggested. The existing covariate-based hazard models neglect to fully utilise three types of asset health information (including failure event data (i.e. observed and/or suspended), condition data, and operating environment data) into a model to have more effective hazard and reliability predictions. In addition, current research shows that condition indicators and operating environment indicators have different characteristics and they are non-homogeneous covariate data. Condition indicators act as response variables (or dependent variables) whereas operating environment indicators act as explanatory variables (or independent variables). However, these non-homogenous covariate data were modelled in the same way for hazard prediction in the existing covariate-based hazard models. The related and yet more imperative question is how both of these indicators should be effectively modelled and integrated into the covariate-based hazard model. This work presents a new approach for addressing the aforementioned challenges. The new covariate-based hazard model, which termed as Explicit Hazard Model (EHM), explicitly and effectively incorporates all three available asset health information into the modelling of hazard and reliability predictions and also drives the relationship between actual asset health and condition measurements as well as operating environment measurements. The theoretical development of the model and its parameter estimation method are demonstrated in this work. EHM assumes that the baseline hazard is a function of the both time and condition indicators. Condition indicators provide information about the health condition of an asset; therefore they update and reform the baseline hazard of EHM according to the health state of asset at given time t. Some examples of condition indicators are the vibration of rotating machinery, the level of metal particles in engine oil analysis, and wear in a component, to name but a few. Operating environment indicators in this model are failure accelerators and/or decelerators that are included in the covariate function of EHM and may increase or decrease the value of the hazard from the baseline hazard. These indicators caused by the environment in which an asset operates, and that have not been explicitly identified by the condition indicators (e.g. Loads, environmental stresses, and other dynamically changing environment factors). While the effects of operating environment indicators could be nought in EHM; condition indicators could emerge because these indicators are observed and measured as long as an asset is operational and survived. EHM has several advantages over the existing covariate-based hazard models. One is this model utilises three different sources of asset health data (i.e. population characteristics, condition indicators, and operating environment indicators) to effectively predict hazard and reliability. Another is that EHM explicitly investigates the relationship between condition and operating environment indicators associated with the hazard of an asset. Furthermore, the proportionality assumption, which most of the covariate-based hazard models suffer from it, does not exist in EHM. According to the sample size of failure/suspension times, EHM is extended into two forms: semi-parametric and non-parametric. The semi-parametric EHM assumes a specified lifetime distribution (i.e. Weibull distribution) in the form of the baseline hazard. However, for more industry applications, due to sparse failure event data of assets, the analysis of such data often involves complex distributional shapes about which little is known. Therefore, to avoid the restrictive assumption of the semi-parametric EHM about assuming a specified lifetime distribution for failure event histories, the non-parametric EHM, which is a distribution free model, has been developed. The development of EHM into two forms is another merit of the model. A case study was conducted using laboratory experiment data to validate the practicality of the both semi-parametric and non-parametric EHMs. The performance of the newly-developed models is appraised using the comparison amongst the estimated results of these models and the other existing covariate-based hazard models. The comparison results demonstrated that both the semi-parametric and non-parametric EHMs outperform the existing covariate-based hazard models. Future research directions regarding to the new parameter estimation method in the case of time-dependent effects of covariates and missing data, application of EHM in both repairable and non-repairable systems using field data, and a decision support model in which linked to the estimated reliability results, are also identified.

Detecting conversing groups of chatters : a model, algorithms, and tests

Chatrooms, for example Internet Relay Chat, are generally multi-user, multi-channel and multiserver chat-systems which run over the Internet and provide a protocol for real-time text-based conferencing between users all over the world. While a well-trained human observer is able to understand who is chatting with whom, there are no efficient and accurate automated tools to determine the groups of users conversing with each other. A precursor to analysing evolving cyber-social phenomena is to first determine what the conversations are and which groups of chatters are involved in each conversation. We consider this problem in this paper. We propose an algorithm to discover all groups of users that are engaged in conversation. Our algorithms are based on a statistical model of a chatroom that is founded on our experience with real chatrooms. Our approach does not require any semantic analysis of the conversations, rather it is based purely on the statistical information contained in the sequence of posts. We improve the accuracy by applying some graph algorithms to clean the statistical information. We present some experimental results which indicate that one can automatically determine the conversing groups in a chatroom, purely on the basis of statistical analysis.

Airborne collision scenario flight tests : impact of angle measurement errors on reactive vision-based avoidance control

The future emergence of many types of airborne vehicles and unpiloted aircraft in the national airspace means collision avoidance is of primary concern in an uncooperative airspace environment. The ability to replicate a pilot’s see and avoid capability using cameras coupled with vision based avoidance control is an important part of an overall collision avoidance strategy. But unfortunately without range collision avoidance has no direct way to guarantee a level of safety. Collision scenario flight tests with two aircraft and a monocular camera threat detection and tracking system were used to study the accuracy of image-derived angle measurements. The effect of image-derived angle errors on reactive vision-based avoidance performance was then studied by simulation. The results show that whilst large angle measurement errors can significantly affect minimum ranging characteristics across a variety of initial conditions and closing speeds, the minimum range is always bounded and a collision never occurs.

The exemplification of governance principles within state asset management laws and policies : the case of Indonesia

Efficient state asset management is crucial for governments as they facilitate the fulfillment of their public functions, which include the provision of essential services and other public administration support. In recent times economies internationally and particularly in South east Asia, have displayed increased recognition of the importance of efficiencies across state asset management law, policies and practice. This has been exemplified by a surge in notable instances of reform in state asset management. A prominent theme in this phenomenon is the consideration of governance principles within the re-conceptualization of state asset management law and related policy, with many countries recognizing variability in the quality of asset governance and opportunities for profit as being critical factors. This issue is very current in Indonesia where a major reform process in this area has been confirmed by the establishment of a new Directorate of State Asset Management. The incumbent Director-General of State Asset Management has confirmed a re-emphasis on adherence to governance principles within applicable state asset management law and policy reform. This paper reviews aspects of the challenge of reviewing and reforming Indonesian practice within state asset management law and policy specifically related to public housing, public buildings, parklands, and vacant land. A critical issue in beginning this review is how Indonesia currently conceptualizes the notion of asset governance and how this meaning is embodied in recent changes in law and policy and importantly in options for future change. This paper discusses the potential complexities uniquely Indonesian characteristics such as decentralisation and regional autonomy regime, political history, and bureaucratic culture.

Why stagnant? behind the scenes in Indonesia’s reformed state asset management policies

This study seeks to answer the question of “why is policy innovation in Indonesia, in particular reformed state asset management laws and regulations, stagnant?” through an empirical and qualitative approach, identifying and exploring potential impeding influences to the full and equal implementation of said laws and regulations. The policies and regulations governing the practice of state asset management has emerged as an urgent question among many countries worldwide (Conway, 2006; Dow, Gillies, Nichols, & Polen, 2006; Kaganova, McKellar, & Peterson, 2006; McKellar, 2006b) for there is heightened awareness of the complex and crucial role that state assets play in public service provision. Indonesia is an example of such country, introducing a ‘big-bang’ reform in state asset management laws, policies, regulations, and technical guidelines. Two main reasons propelled said policy innovation: a) world-wide common challenges in state asset management practices - such as incomplete information system, accountability, and governance adherence/conceptualisation (Kaganova, McKellar and Peterson 2006); and b) unfavourable state assets audit results in all regional governments across Indonesia. The latter reasoning is emphasised, as the Indonesian government admits to past neglect in ensuring efficiency and best practice in its state asset management practices. Prior to reform there was euphoria of building and developing state assets and public infrastructure to support government programs of the day. Although this euphoria resulted in high growth within Indonesia, there seems to be little attention paid to how state assets bought/built is managed. Up until 2003-2004 state asset management is considered to be minimal; inventory of assets is done manually, there is incomplete public sector accounting standards, and incomplete financial reporting standards (Hadiyanto 2009). During that time transparency, accountability, and maintenance state assets was not the main focus, be it by the government or the society itself (Hadiyanto 2009). Indonesia exemplified its enthusiasm in reforming state asset management policies and practices through the establishment of the Directorate General of State Assets in 2006. The Directorate General of State Assets have stressed the new direction that it is taking state asset management laws and policies through the introduction of Republic of Indonesia Law Number 38 Year 2008, which is an amended regulation overruling Republic of Indonesia Law Number 6 Year 2006 on Central/Regional Government State Asset Management (Hadiyanto, 2009c). Law number 38/2008 aims to further exemplify good governance principles and puts forward a ‘the highest and best use of assets’ principle in state asset management (Hadiyanto, 2009a). The methodology of this study is that of qualitative case study approach, with a triangulated data collection method of document analysis (all relevant state asset management laws, regulations, policies, technical guidelines, and external audit reports), semi-structured interviews, and on-site observation. Empirical data of this study involved a sample of four Indonesian regional governments and 70 interviews, performed during January-July 2010. The analytical approach of this study is that of thematic analysis, in an effort to identify common influences and/or challenges to policy innovation within Indonesia. Based on the empirical data of this study specific impeding influences to state asset management reform is explored, answering the question why innovative policy implementation is stagnant. An in-depth analysis of each influencing factors to state asset management reform, and the attached interviewee’s opinions for each factor, suggests the potential of an ‘excuse rhetoric’; whereby the influencing factors identified are a smoke-screen, or are myths that public policy makers and implementers believe in; as a means to explain innovative policy stagnancy. This study offers insights to Indonesian policy makers interested in ensuring the conceptualisation and full implementation of innovative policies, particularly, although not limited to, within the context of state asset management practices.

Regulation of emissions under the carbon pricing mechanism : a case study of Australia’s coal fired electricity sector

On 1 July 2012, the carbon pricing mechanism commenced in Australia with the aim of reducing emissions and encouraging investment in clean energy. A substantial proportion of Australia’s emissions are attributable to the coal-fired electricity generation sector. This article examines whether the carbon pricing mechanism will effectively facilitate emissions reduction from the coal-fired electricity sector. Aspects analysed include the legislative constraints placed on the carbon price, the carbon pollution cap and provisions specific to the coal-fired electricity sector, such as transitional assistance. It is concluded that, in practice, the carbon pricing mechanism may not be sufficient in itself to achieve significant reduction in emissions from coal-fired electricity generation or significant investment in clean energy, and that a suite of additional regulatory measures, such as the federal Renewable Energy Target, should operate in conjunction with the mechanism.

State asset management reform in Indonesia : a wicked problem

Efficient state asset management is crucial for government departments that rely on the operations of their state assets in order to fulfil their public functions, which include public service provision and others. These assets may be expensive, extensive and or, complex, and can have a major impact on the ability of governments to perform its function over extended periods. Various governments around the world have increasingly recognised the importance of an efficient state asset management laws, policies, and practices; exemplified by the surge in state asset management reform. This phenomenon is evident in Indonesia, in particular through the establishment of the Directorate General of State Assets in 2006, who was appointed as the ultimate state asset manager (of Republic of Indonesia) and the proprietor of state asset management reform. The Directorate General of State Assets too has pledged its adherence to good governance principles within its state asset management laws and policies reform. However the degree that good governance principles are conceptualised is unknown, resulting in questions of how and to what extent is good governance principles evident within Indonesia's reformed state asset management laws and policies. This study seeks to understand the level of which good governance principles are conceptualised and understood within reformed state asset management policies in Indonesia (as a case study), and identify the variables that play a role in the implementation of said reform. Although good governance improvements has been a central tenet in Indonesian government agenda, and state asset management reform has propelled in priority due to found neglect and unfavourable audit results; there is ambiguity in regards to the extent that good governance is conceptualised within the reform, how and whether this relationship is understood by state asset managers (i.e government officials), and what (and how) other variables play a supporting and/or impeding role in the reform. Using empirical data involving a sample of four Indonesian regional governments and 70 interviews; discrepancy in which good governance principles are conceptualised, the level it is conceptualised, at which stage of state asset management practice it is conceptualised, and the level it is understood by state asset managers (i.e government officials) was found. Human resource capacity and capability, the notion of 'needing more time', low legality, infancy of reform, and dysfunctional sense of stewardship are identified as specific impeding variables to state asset management reform; whilst decentralisation and regional autonomy regime, political history, and culture play a consistent undercurrent key role in good governance related reforms within Indonesia. This study offers insights to Indonesian policy makers interested in ensuring the conceptualisation and full implementation of good governance in all areas of governing, particularly within state asset management practices. Most importantly, this study identifies an asymmetry in good governance understanding, perspective, and assumptions between policy maker (i.e high level government officials) and policy implementers (i.e low level government officials); to be taken into account for future policy evolvements and/or writing. As such, this study suggests the need for a modified perspective and approach to good governance conceptualisation and implementation strategies, one that acknowledges and incorporates a nation's unique characteristics and no longer denies the double-edged sword of simplified assumptions of governance.

Timed Up and Go Tests in cardiac rehabilitation : reliability and comparison with the 6-minute walk test

PURPOSE: To test the reliability of Timed Up and Go Tests (TUGTs) in cardiac rehabilitation (CR) and compare TUGTs to the 6-Minute Walk Test (6MWT) for outcome measurement. METHODS: Sixty-one of 154 consecutive community-based CR patients were prospectively recruited. Subjects undertook repeated TUGTs and 6MWTs at the start of CR (start-CR), postdischarge from CR (post-CR), and 6 months postdischarge from CR (6 months post-CR). The main outcome measurements were TUGT time (TUGTT) and 6MWT distance (6MWD). RESULTS: Mean (SD) TUGTT1 and TUGTT2 at the 3 assessments were 6.29 (1.30) and 5.94 (1.20); 5.81 (1.22) and 5.53 (1.09); and 5.39 (1.60) and 5.01 (1.28) seconds, respectively. A reduction in TUGTT occurred between each outcome point (P ≤ .002). Repeated TUGTTs were strongly correlated at each assessment, intraclass correlation (95% CI) = 0.85 (0.76–0.91), 0.84 (0.73–0.91), and 0.90 (0.83–0.94), despite a reduction between TUGTT1 and TUGTT2 of 5%, 5%, and 7%, respectively (P ≤ .006). Relative decreases in TUGTT1 (TUGTT2) occurred from start-CR to post-CR and from start-CR to 6 months post-CR of −7.5% (−6.9%) and −14.2% (−15.5%), respectively, while relative increases in 6MWD1 (6MWD2) occurred, 5.1% (7.2%) and 8.4% (10.2%), respectively (P < .001 in all cases). Pearson correlation coefficients for 6MWD1 to TUGTT1 and TUGTT2 across all times were −0.60 and −0.68 (P < .001) and the intraclass correlations (95% CI) for the speeds derived from averaged 6MWDs and TUGTTs were 0.65 (0.54, 0.73) (P < .001). CONCLUSIONS: Similar relative changes occurred for the TUGT and the 6MWT in CR. A significant correlation between the TUGTT and 6MWD was demonstrated, and we suggest that the TUGT may provide a related or a supplementary measurement of functional capacity in CR.

The need for ‘representative task design’ in evaluating efficacy of skills tests in sport : a comment on Russell, Benton and Kingsley (2010)

Russell, Benton and Kingsley (2010) recently suggested a new association football test comprising three different tasks for the evaluation of players' passing, dribbling and shooting skills. Their stated intention was to enhance ‘ecological validity’ of current association football skills tests allowing generalisation of results from the new protocols to performance constraints that were ‘representative’ of experiences during competitive game situations. However, in this comment we raise some concerns with their use of the term ‘ecological validity’ to allude to aspects of ‘representative task design’. We propose that in their paper the authors confused understanding of environmental properties, performance achievement and generalisability of the test and its outcomes. Here, we argue that the tests designed by Russell and colleagues did not include critical sources of environmental information, such as the active role of opponents, which players typically use to organise their actions during performance. Static tasks which are not representative of the competitive performance environment may lead to different emerging patterns of movement organisation and performance outcomes, failing to effectively evaluate skills performance in sport.