Forecasting outcomes in tennis matches using within-match betting markets

Klaassen and Magnus (2003) provide a model of the probability of a given player winning a tennis match, with the prediction updated on a point-by-point basis. This paper provides a point-by-point comparison of that model with the probability of a given player winning the match, as implied by betting odds. The predictions implied by the betting odds match the model predictions closely, with an extremely high correlation being found between the model and the betting market. The results for both men’s and women’s matches also suggest that there is a high level of efficiency in the betting market, demonstrating that betting markets are a good predictor of the outcomes of tennis matches. The significance of service breaks and service being held is anticipated up to four points prior to the end of the game. However, the tendency of players to lose more points than would be expected after conceding a break of service is not captured instantaneously in betting odds. In contrast, there is no evidence of a biased reaction to a player winning a game on service.

Volatility transmission in global financial markets

As financial markets have become increasingly integrated internationally, the topic of volatility transmission across these markets has become more important. This thesis investigates how the volatility patterns of the world's main financial centres differ across foreign exchange, equity, and bond markets.

Export of radioactive cesium from agricultural fields under simulated rainfall in Fukushima

In this study, we investigated the impact of rainfall on runoff, soil erosion and consequently on the discharge of radioactive cesium in agricultural fields in Fukushima prefecture using a rainfall simulator. Simulated heavy rainfalls (50 mm h-1) generated significant runoff and soil erosion. The average concentration of radioactive cesium (the sum of 134Cs and 137Cs) in the runoff sediments was [similar]3500 Bq kg-1 dry soil, more than double the concentrations measured in the field soils which should be considered in studies using the 137Cs loss to estimate long-term soil erosion. However, the estimated mass of cesium discharged through one runoff event was less than 2% of the cesium inventory in the field. This suggested that cesium discharge via soil erosion is not a significant factor in reducing the radioactivity of contaminated soils in Fukushima prefecture. However, the eroded sediment carrying radioactive cesium will deposit into the river systems and potentially pose a radioactivity risk for aquatic living organisms.

Design and flight testing of an integrated solar powered UAV and WSN for greenhouse gas monitoring emissions in agricultural farms

There is an increased interest in measuring the amount of greenhouse gases produced by farming practices . This paper describes an integrated solar powered Unmanned Air Vehicles (UAV) and Wireless Sensor Network (WSN) gas sensing system for greenhouse gas emissions in agricultural lands. The system uses a generic gas sensing system for CH4 and CO2 concentrations using metal oxide (MoX) and non-dispersive infrared sensors, and a new solar cell encapsulation method to power the unmanned aerial system (UAS)as well as a data management platform to store, analyze and share the information with operators and external users. The system was successfully field tested at ground and low altitudes, collecting, storing and transmitting data in real time to a central node for analysis and 3D mapping. The system can be used in a wide range of outdoor applications at a relatively low operational cost. In particular, agricultural environments are increasingly subject to emissions mitigation policies. Accurate measurements of CH4 and CO2 with its temporal and spatial variability can provide farm managers key information to plan agricultural practices. A video of the bench and flight test performed can be seen in the following link: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Bwas7stYIxQ

Volatility transmission in global financial markets

This paper considers the transmission of volatility in global foreign exchange, equity and bond markets. Using a multivariate GARCH framework which includes measures of realised volatility as explanatory variables, significant volatility and news spillovers are found to occur on the same trading day between Japan, Europe, and the United States. All markets exhibit significant degrees of asymmetry in terms of the transmission of volatility associated with good and bad news. There are also strong links between diffusive volatilities in all three markets, whereas jumpactivity is only importantwithin the equitymarkets. The results of this paper deepen our understanding of how news and volatility are propagated through global financial markets.

Evaluation of a Multispectral Camera on a UAV for Agricultural Applications

Australian farmers have used precision agriculture technology for many years with the use of ground – based and satellite systems. However, these systems require the use of vehicles in order to analyse a wide area which can be time consuming and cost ineffective. Also, satellite imagery may not be accurate for analysis. Low cost of Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAV) present an effective method of analysing large plots of agricultural fields. As the UAV can travel over long distances and fly over multiple plots, it allows for more data to be captured by a sampling device such as a multispectral camera and analysed thereafter. This would allow farmers to analyse the health of their crops and thus focus their efforts on certain areas which may need attention. This project evaluates a multispectral camera for use on a UAV for agricultural applications.

An experimental analysis of information acquisition in prediction markets

We study which factors in terms of trading environment and trader characteristics determine individual information acquisition in experimental asset markets. Traders with larger endowments, existing inconclusive information, lower risk aversion, and less experience in financial markets tend to acquire more information. Overall, we find that traders overacquire information, so that informed traders on average obtain negative profits net of information costs. Information acquisition and the associated losses do not diminish over time. This overacquisition phenomenon is inconsistent with predictions of rational expectations equilibrium, and we argue it resembles the overdissipation results from the contest literature. We find that more acquired information in the market leads to smaller differences between fundamental asset values and prices. Thus, the overacquisition phenomenon is a novel explanation for the high forecasting accuracy of prediction markets.

How social preferences shape incentives in (experimental) markets for credence goods

Credence goods markets suffer from inefficiencies caused by superior information of sellers about the surplus-maximising quality. While standard theory predicts that equal mark-up prices solve the credence goods problem if customers can verify the quality received, experimental evidence indicates the opposite. We identify a lack of robustness with respect to heterogeneity in social preferences as a possible cause of this and conduct new experiments that allow for parsimonious identification of sellers’ social preference types. Our results confirm the assumed heterogeneity in social preferences and provide strong support for our explanation of the failure of verifiability to increase efficiency.

Interdependence between Greece and other European stock markets: A comparison of wavelet and VMD copula, and the portfolio implications

The interdependence of Greece and other European stock markets and the subsequent portfolio implications are examined in wavelet and variational mode decomposition domain. In applying the decomposition techniques, we analyze the structural properties of data and distinguish between short and long term dynamics of stock market returns. First, the GARCH-type models are fitted to obtain the standardized residuals. Next, different copula functions are evaluated, and based on the conventional information criteria and time varying parameter, Joe-Clayton copula is chosen to model the tail dependence between the stock markets. The short-run lower tail dependence time paths show a sudden increase in comovement during the global financial crises. The results of the long-run dependence suggest that European stock markets have higher interdependence with Greece stock market. Individual country’s Value at Risk (VaR) separates the countries into two distinct groups. Finally, the two-asset portfolio VaR measures provide potential markets for Greece stock market investment diversification.