Machine prognostics based on health state probability estimation

The ability to accurately predict the remaining useful life of machine components is critical for machine continuous operation and can also improve productivity and enhance system’s safety. In condition-based maintenance (CBM), maintenance is performed based on information collected through condition monitoring and assessment of the machine health. Effective diagnostics and prognostics are important aspects of CBM for maintenance engineers to schedule a repair and to acquire replacement components before the components actually fail. Although a variety of prognostic methodologies have been reported recently, their application in industry is still relatively new and mostly focused on the prediction of specific component degradations. Furthermore, they required significant and sufficient number of fault indicators to accurately prognose the component faults. Hence, sufficient usage of health indicators in prognostics for the effective interpretation of machine degradation process is still required. Major challenges for accurate longterm prediction of remaining useful life (RUL) still remain to be addressed. Therefore, continuous development and improvement of a machine health management system and accurate long-term prediction of machine remnant life is required in real industry application. This thesis presents an integrated diagnostics and prognostics framework based on health state probability estimation for accurate and long-term prediction of machine remnant life. In the proposed model, prior empirical (historical) knowledge is embedded in the integrated diagnostics and prognostics system for classification of impending faults in machine system and accurate probability estimation of discrete degradation stages (health states). The methodology assumes that machine degradation consists of a series of degraded states (health states) which effectively represent the dynamic and stochastic process of machine failure. The estimation of discrete health state probability for the prediction of machine remnant life is performed using the ability of classification algorithms. To employ the appropriate classifier for health state probability estimation in the proposed model, comparative intelligent diagnostic tests were conducted using five different classifiers applied to the progressive fault data of three different faults in a high pressure liquefied natural gas (HP-LNG) pump. As a result of this comparison study, SVMs were employed in heath state probability estimation for the prediction of machine failure in this research. The proposed prognostic methodology has been successfully tested and validated using a number of case studies from simulation tests to real industry applications. The results from two actual failure case studies using simulations and experiments indicate that accurate estimation of health states is achievable and the proposed method provides accurate long-term prediction of machine remnant life. In addition, the results of experimental tests show that the proposed model has the capability of providing early warning of abnormal machine operating conditions by identifying the transitional states of machine fault conditions. Finally, the proposed prognostic model is validated through two industrial case studies. The optimal number of health states which can minimise the model training error without significant decrease of prediction accuracy was also examined through several health states of bearing failure. The results were very encouraging and show that the proposed prognostic model based on health state probability estimation has the potential to be used as a generic and scalable asset health estimation tool in industrial machinery.

Using virtual worlds for collaborative business process modeling

Purpose Process modeling is a complex organizational task that requires many iterations and communication between the business analysts and the domain specialists. The challenge of process modeling is exacerbated, when the process of modeling has to be performed in a cross-organizational, distributed environment. In this paper we suggest a 3D environment for collaborative process modeling, using Virtual World technology. Design/methodology/approach We suggest a new collaborative process modeling approach based on Virtual World technology. We describe the design of an innovative prototype collaborative process modeling approach, implemented as a 3D BPMN modeling environment in Second Life. We use a case study to evaluate the suggested approach. Findings Based on our case study application, we show that our approach increases user empowerment and adds significantly to the collaboration and consensual development of process models even when the relevant stakeholders are geographically dispersed. Research limitations implications – We present design work and a case study. More research is needed to more thoroughly evaluate the presented approach in a variety of real-life process modeling settings. Practical implications Our research outcomes as design artifacts are directly available and applicable by business process management professionals and can be used by business, system and process analysts in real-world practice. Originality/value Our research is the first reported attempt to develop a process modeling approach on the basis of virtual world technology. We describe a novel and innovative 3D BPMN modeling environment in Second Life.

Business process simulation in virtual worlds

This is an invited presentation made as a short preview of the virtual environment research work being undertaken at QUT in the Business Process Management (BPM) research group, known as BPMVE. Three projects are covered, spatial process visualisation, with applications to airport check-in processes, collaborative process modelling using a virtual world BPMN editing tool and business process simulation in virtual worlds using Open Simulator and the YAWL workflow system. In addition, the relationship of this work to Organisational Psychology is briefly explored. Full Video/Audio is available at: http://www.youtube.com/user/BPMVE#p/u/1/rp506c3pPms

Multi-step ahead direct prediction for the machine condition prognosis using regression trees and neuro-fuzzy systems

This paper presents an approach to predict the operating conditions of machine based on classification and regression trees (CART) and adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system (ANFIS) in association with direct prediction strategy for multi-step ahead prediction of time series techniques. In this study, the number of available observations and the number of predicted steps are initially determined by using false nearest neighbor method and auto mutual information technique, respectively. These values are subsequently utilized as inputs for prediction models to forecast the future values of the machines’ operating conditions. The performance of the proposed approach is then evaluated by using real trending data of low methane compressor. A comparative study of the predicted results obtained from CART and ANFIS models is also carried out to appraise the prediction capability of these models. The results show that the ANFIS prediction model can track the change in machine conditions and has the potential for using as a tool to machine fault prognosis.

Cardiac health diagnosis using higher order spectra and support vector machine

The Electrocardiogram (ECG) is an important bio-signal representing the sum total of millions of cardiac cell depolarization potentials. It contains important insight into the state of health and nature of the disease afflicting the heart. Heart rate variability (HRV) refers to the regulation of the sinoatrial node, the natural pacemaker of the heart by the sympathetic and parasympathetic branches of the autonomic nervous system. The HRV signal can be used as a base signal to observe the heart's functioning. These signals are non-linear and non-stationary in nature. So, higher order spectral (HOS) analysis, which is more suitable for non-linear systems and is robust to noise, was used. An automated intelligent system for the identification of cardiac health is very useful in healthcare technology. In this work, we have extracted seven features from the heart rate signals using HOS and fed them to a support vector machine (SVM) for classification. Our performance evaluation protocol uses 330 subjects consisting of five different kinds of cardiac disease conditions. We demonstrate a sensitivity of 90% for the classifier with a specificity of 87.93%. Our system is ready to run on larger data sets.

Use of virtual index for measuring efficiency of innovation systems : a cross-country study

In this study we propose a virtual index for measuring the relative innovativeness of countries. Using a multistage virtual benchmarking process, the best and rational benchmark is extracted for inefficient ISs. Furthermore, Tobit and Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) regression models are used to investigate the likelihood of changes in inefficiencies by investigating country-specific factors. The empirical results relating to the virtual benchmarking process suggest that the OLS regression model would better explain changes in the performance of innovation- inefficient countries.

Ezine and iRadio as knowledge creation metaphors for scaffolding learning in physical and virtual learning spaces

eZine and iRadio represent metaphors for multimedia communication on the Internet. Participating students experience a simulated Internet publishing environment in both their classroom and virtual learning environment. This chapter presents an autoethnographic account highlighting the voices of the learning designer and the teacher and provides evidence of the planning and implementation of two tertiary music elective courses over three iterations of each course. A blended learning environment was incorporated within each elective music course and a collaborative approach to development between lecturers, tutors, learning and technological designers using an iterative research design. The research suggests that learning design which provides real world examples and resources integrating authentic task design into their unit can provide meaningful and engaging experiences for students. The dialogue between learning designers and teachers and iterative review of the learning process and student outcomes, we believe, has engaged students meaningfully to achieve transferable learning outcomes.

The application of the statutory derivative action in Pt 2F.1A of the Corporations Act to companies in liquidation under Ch 5 : Well oiled machine or is Pt 2F.1A in need of a tune up?

The statutory derivative action was introduced in Australia in 2000. This right of action has been debated in the literature and introduced in a number of other jurisdictions as well. However, it is by no means clear that all issues have been resolved despite its operation in Australia for over 10 years. This article considers the application of Pt 2F.1A of the Corporations Act to companies in liquidation under Ch 5. It demonstrates that the application involves consideration of not only proper statutory interpretation but also policy matters around the role and the supervision by the court of a liquidator once a company has entered liquidation.