Space-time variation of malaria incidence in Yunnan province, China

Abstract Background Understanding spatio-temporal variation in malaria incidence provides a basis for effective disease control planning and monitoring. Methods Monthly surveillance data between 1991 and 2006 for Plasmodium vivax and Plasmodium falciparum malaria across 128 counties were assembled for Yunnan, a province of China with one of the highest burdens of malaria. County-level Bayesian Poisson regression models of incidence were constructed, with effects for rainfall, maximum temperature and temporal trend. The model also allowed for spatial variation in county-level incidence and temporal trend, and dependence between incidence in June–September and the preceding January–February. Results Models revealed strong associations between malaria incidence and both rainfall and maximum temperature. There was a significant association between incidence in June–September and the preceding January–February. Raw standardised morbidity ratios showed a high incidence in some counties bordering Myanmar, Laos and Vietnam, and counties in the Red River valley. Clusters of counties in south-western and northern Yunnan were identified that had high incidence not explained by climate. The overall trend in incidence decreased, but there was significant variation between counties. Conclusion Dependence between incidence in summer and the preceding January–February suggests a role of intrinsic host-pathogen dynamics. Incidence during the summer peak might be predictable based on incidence in January–February, facilitating malaria control planning, scaled months in advance to the magnitude of the summer malaria burden. Heterogeneities in county-level temporal trends suggest that reductions in the burden of malaria have been unevenly distributed throughout the province.

An inverse time admittance relay for fault detection in distribution networks containing DGs

Isolation of a faulted segment, from either side of a fault, in a radial feeder that has several converter interfaced DGs is a challenging task when current sensing protective devices are employed. The protective device, even if it senses a downstream fault, may not operate if fault current level is low due to the current limiting operation of converters. In this paper, a new inverse type relay is introduced based on line admittance measurement to protect a distribution network, which has several converter interfaced DGs. The basic operation of this relay, its grading and reach settings are explained. Moreover a method is proposed to compensate the fault resistance such that the relay operation under this condition is reliable. Then designed relay performances are evaluated in a radial distribution network. The results are validated through PSCAD/EMTDC simulation and MATLAB calculations.

The effect of insertion time on the axial pullout strength of anterior vertebral body screws

Top screw pullout occurs when the screw is under too much axial force to remain secure in the vertebral body. In vitro biomechanical pullout tests are commonly done to find the maximum fixation strength of anterior vertebral body screws. Typically, pullout tests are done instantaneously where the screw is inserted and then pulled out immediately after insertion. However, bone is a viscoelastic material so it shows a time dependent stress and strain response. Because of this property, it was hypothesised that creep occurs in the vertebral trabecular bone due to the stress caused by the screw. The objective of this study was therefore to determine whether the axial pullout strength of anterior vertebral body screws used for scoliosis correction surgery changes with time after insertion. This study found that there is a possible relationship between pullout strength and time; however more testing is required as the sample numbers were quite small. The design of the screw is made with the knowledge of the strength it must obtain. This is important to prevent such occurrences as top screw pullout. If the pullout strength is indeed decreased due to creep, the design of the screw may need to be changed to withstand greater forces.

Effects of fare collection policy on operating characteristics of a Brisbane busway station

Transit agencies across the world are increasingly shifting their fare collection mechanisms towards fully automated systems like the smart card. One of the objectives in implementing such a system is to reduce the boarding time per passenger and hence reduce the overall dwell time for the buses at the bus stops/bus rapid transit (BRT) stations. TransLink, the transit authority responsible for public transport management in South East Queensland, has introduced ‘GoCard’ technology using the Cubic platform for fare collection on its public transport system. In addition to this, three inner city BRT stations on South East Busway spine are operating as pre-paid platforms during evening peak time. This paper evaluates the effects of these multiple policy measures on operation of study busway station. The comparison between pre and post policy scenarios suggests that though boarding time per passenger has decreased, while the alighting time per passenger has increased slightly. However, there is a substantial reduction in operating efficiency was observed at the station.

A time-variant medical data trustworthiness assessment model

Electronic Health Record (EHR) systems are being introduced to overcome the limitations associated with paper-based and isolated Electronic Medical Record (EMR) systems. This is accomplished by aggregating medical data and consolidating them in one digital repository. Though an EHR system provides obvious functional benefits, there is a growing concern about the privacy and reliability (trustworthiness) of Electronic Health Records. Security requirements such as confidentiality, integrity, and availability can be satisfied by traditional hard security mechanisms. However, measuring data trustworthiness from the perspective of data entry is an issue that cannot be solved with traditional mechanisms, especially since degrees of trust change over time. In this paper, we introduce a Time-variant Medical Data Trustworthiness (TMDT) assessment model to evaluate the trustworthiness of medical data by evaluating the trustworthiness of its sources, namely the healthcare organisation where the data was created and the medical practitioner who diagnosed the patient and authorised entry of this data into the patient’s medical record, with respect to a certain period of time. The result can then be used by the EHR system to manipulate health record metadata to alert medical practitioners relying on the information to possible reliability problems.

Modelling urban public transit users' route choice behaviour: review and outlook

This paper reviews the main development of approaches to modelling urban public transit users’ route choice behaviour from 1960s to the present. The approaches reviewed include the early heuristic studies on finding the least cost transit route and all-or-nothing transit assignment, the bus common line problem and corresponding network representation methods, the disaggregate discrete choice models which are based on random utility maximization assumptions, the deterministic use equilibrium and stochastic user equilibrium transit assignment models, and the recent dynamic transit assignment models using either frequency or schedule based network formulation. In addition to reviewing past outcomes, this paper also gives an outlook into the possible future directions of modelling transit users’ route choice behaviour. Based on the comparison with the development of models for motorists’ route choice and traffic assignment problems in an urban road area, this paper points out that it is rewarding for transit route choice research to draw inspiration from the intellectual outcomes out of the road area. Particularly, in light of the recent advancement of modelling motorists’ complex road route choice behaviour, this paper advocates that the modelling practice of transit users’ route choice should further explore the complexities of the problem.

Generalising unitary time evolution

In this third Quantum Interaction (QI) meeting it is time to examine our failures. One of the weakest elements of QI as a field, arises in its continuing lack of models displaying proper evolutionary dynamics. This paper presents an overview of the modern generalised approach to the derivation of time evolution equations in physics, showing how the notion of symmetry is essential to the extraction of operators in quantum theory. The form that symmetry might take in non-physical models is explored, with a number of viable avenues identified.

Investigation into Travel of Transit Oriented Development Residents’ of Kelvin Grove Urban Village

Travel surveys were conducted for collecting data related to residents’ travel at Kelvin Grove Urban Village (KGUV). Currently, KGUV has residents living in the affordable apartments, apartments, townhouses and student accommodation. As a part of data collection process, travel surveys were undertaken for residents living in apartments, affordable apartments and student accommodation. This document contains the questionnaire form used to collect the demographic and travel data related to residents at KGUV. A mail back survey technique was used to collect data for residents living in affordable apartment and apartments, and an intercept surveys was conducted for residents living in student accommodation.

Time series analysis of a Web search engine transaction log

In this paper, we use time series analysis to evaluate predictive scenarios using search engine transactional logs. Our goal is to develop models for the analysis of searchers’ behaviors over time and investigate if time series analysis is a valid method for predicting relationships between searcher actions. Time series analysis is a method often used to understand the underlying characteristics of temporal data in order to make forecasts. In this study, we used a Web search engine transactional log and time series analysis to investigate users’ actions. We conducted our analysis in two phases. In the initial phase, we employed a basic analysis and found that 10% of searchers clicked on sponsored links. However, from 22:00 to 24:00, searchers almost exclusively clicked on the organic links, with almost no clicks on sponsored links. In the second and more extensive phase, we used a one-step prediction time series analysis method along with a transfer function method. The period rarely affects navigational and transactional queries, while rates for transactional queries vary during different periods. Our results show that the average length of a searcher session is approximately 2.9 interactions and that this average is consistent across time periods. Most importantly, our findings shows that searchers who submit the shortest queries (i.e., in number of terms) click on highest ranked results. We discuss implications, including predictive value, and future research.

Monitoring the Performance of Complex Projects from Multiple Perspectives over Multiple Time Frames

When complex projects go wrong they can go horribly wrong with severe financial consequences. We are undertaking research to develop leading performance indicators for complex projects, metrics to provide early warning of potential difficulties. The assessment of success of complex projects can be made by a range of stakeholders over different time scales, against different levels of project results: the project’s outputs at the end of the project; the project’s outcomes in the months following project completion; and the project’s impact in the years following completion. We aim to identify leading performance indicators, which may include both success criteria and success factors, and which can be measured by the project team during project delivery to forecast success as assessed by key stakeholders in the days, months and years following the project. The hope is the leading performance indicators will act as alarm bells to show if a project is diverting from plan so early corrective action can be taken. It may be that different combinations of the leading performance indicators will be appropriate depending on the nature of project complexity. In this paper we develop a new model of project success, whereby success is assessed by different stakeholders over different time frames against different levels of project results. We then relate this to measurements that can be taken during project delivery. A methodology is described to evaluate the early parts of this model. Its implications and limitations are described. This paper describes work in progress.

The right person, in the right job, with the right skills, at the right time. A workforce-planning model that goes beyond metrics

Purpose – The paper aims to describe a workforce-planning model developed in-house in an Australian university library that is based on rigorous environmental scanning of an institution, the profession and the sector. Design/methodology/approach – The paper uses a case study that describes the stages of the planning process undertaken to develop the Library’s Workforce Plan and the documentation produced. Findings – While it has been found that the process has had successful and productive outcomes, workforce planning is an ongoing process. To remain effective, the workforce plan needs to be reviewed annually in the context of the library’s overall planning program. This is imperative if the plan is to remain current and to be regarded as a living document that will continue to guide library practice. Research limitations/implications – Although a single case study, the work has been contextualized within the wider research into workforce planning. Practical implications – The paper provides a model that can easily be deployed within a library without external or specialist consultant skills, and due to its scalability can be applied at department or wider level. Originality/value – The paper identifies the trends impacting on, and the emerging opportunities for, university libraries and provides a model for workforce planning that recognizes the context and culture of the organization as key drivers in determining workforce planning. Keywords - Australia, University libraries, Academic libraries, Change management, Manpower planning Paper type - Case study

Urban network travel time estimation from stop-line loop detector data and signal controller data

This paper presents a model to estimate travel time using cumulative plots. Three different cases considered are i) case-Det, for only detector data; ii) case-DetSig, for detector data and signal controller data and iii) case-DetSigSFR: for detector data, signal controller data and saturation flow rate. The performance of the model for different detection intervals is evaluated. It is observed that detection interval is not critical if signal timings are available. Comparable accuracy can be obtained from larger detection interval with signal timings or from shorter detection interval without signal timings. The performance for case-DetSig and for case-DetSigSFR is consistent with accuracy generally more than 95% whereas, case-Det is highly sensitive to the signal phases in the detection interval and its performance is uncertain if detection interval is integral multiple of signal cycles.

Members abroad - Australia : Paul Sanders

I have been an academic since joining the University of Natal in 1998 and, following a period as a visiting lecturer in Brisbane in 2001, I joined the staff at QUT on an ongoing basis in 2003. I was appointed as Architecture Co-ordinator in 2006, and this role involves the leadership of the architectur discipline of 17 full time academics. I am currently enrolled in a PhD course in the field of urban morphology. This research proposes a theory on the relevance of mapping the evolutionary aspects of historical urban form to develop a measure for evaluating architecural elements and deriving parameters for new buildings. My participation in a QUT design team contributed to a recent successful invited competition bid for an Urban Transit Centre in Hangzhou, China. The Centre will include retail, business, entertainment, residential and service components at the heart of the Binjiang district on the 11.5ha core area with 32ha surrounding urban design precinct. The project has received the approval to commence and is to be implemented over the next three years!