Quantifying the state of populations and effects of disturbances at large spatio-temporal scales: The case of coral populations in the great barrier reef

This project was a step forward in applying statistical methods and models to provide new insights for more informed decision-making at large spatial scales. The model has been designed to address complicated effects of ecological processes that govern the state of populations and uncertainties inherent in large spatio-temporal datasets. Specifically, the thesis contributes to better understanding and management of the Great Barrier Reef.

An alternative approach to describing agility in sports through establishment of a relationship between velocity and radius of curvature

Agility is an essential part of many athletic activities. Currently, agility drill duration is the sole criterion used for evaluation of agility performance. The relationship between drill duration and factors such as acceleration, deceleration and change of direction, however, has not been fully explored. This paper provides a mathematical description of the relationship between velocity and radius of curvatures in an agility drill through implementation of a power law (PL). Two groups of skilled and unskilled participants performed a cyclic forward/backward shuttle agility test. Kinematic data was recorded using motion capture system at a sampling rate of 200 Hz. The logarithmic relationship between tangential velocity and radius of curvature of participant trajectories in both groups was established using the PL. The slope of the regression line was found to be 0.26 and 0.36, for the skilled and unskilled groups, respectively. The magnitudes of regression line slope for both groups were approximately 0.3 which is close to the expected 1/3 value. Results are an indication of how the PL could be implemented in an agility drill thus opening the way for establishment of a more representative measure of agility performance instead of drill duration.

Interpersonal coordination tendencies supporting the creation/prevention of goal scoring opportunities in futsal

Research on 1vs1 sub-phases in team sports has shown how one player coordinates his/her actions with his/her opponent and the location of a target/goal to attain performance objectives. In this study, we extended this approach to analysis of 5vs5 competitive performance in the team sport of futsal to provide a performance analysis framework that explains how players coordinate their actions to create/prevent opportunities to score goals. For this purpose, we recorded all 10 futsal matches of the 2009 Lusophony Games held in Lisbon. We analysed the displacement trajectories of a shooting attacker and marking defender in plays ending in a goal, a goalkeeper's save, and a defender's interception, at four specific moments during performance: (1) assisting attacker's ball reception; (2) moment of passing; (3) shooter's ball reception, and; (4) shot on goal. Statistical analysis showed that when a goal was scored, the defender's angle to the goal and to the attacker tended to decrease, the attacker was able to move to the same distance to the goal alongside the defender, and the attacker was closer to the defender and moving at the same velocity (at least) as the defender. This study identified emergent patterns of coordination between attackers and defenders under key competitive task constraints, such as the location of the goal, which supported successful performance in futsal.

Survey : The design studio now

In this book for the AASA I provide a response to the question asked by the editors: What is Architecture Studio?

An automated emergency landing system for fixed-wing aircraft: Planning and control

A number of hurdles must be overcome in order to integrate unmanned aircraft into civilian airspace for routine operations. The ability of the aircraft to land safely in an emergency is essential to reduce the risk to people, infrastructure and aircraft. To date, few field-demonstrated systems have been presented that show online re-planning and repeatability from failure to touchdown. This paper presents the development of the Guidance, Navigation and Control (GNC) component of an Automated Emergency Landing System (AELS) intended to address this gap, suited to a variety of fixed-wing aircraft. Field-tested on both a fixed-wing UAV and Cessna 172R during repeated emergency landing experiments, a trochoid-based path planner computes feasible trajectories and a simplified control system executes the required manoeuvres to guide the aircraft towards touchdown on a predefined landing site. This is achieved in zero-thrust conditions with engine forced to idle to simulate failure. During an autonomous landing, the controller uses airspeed, inertial and GPS data to track motion and maintains essential flight parameters to guarantee flyability, while the planner monitors glide ratio and re-plans to ensure approach at correct altitude. Simulations show reliability of the system in a variety of wind conditions and its repeated ability to land within the boundary of a predefined landing site. Results from field-tests for the two aircraft demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed GNC system in live operation. Results show that the system is capable of guiding the aircraft to close proximity of a predefined keyhole in nearly 100% of cases.

Moving on (part 2): Power and the child in curriculum history

This paper is the second in a two-part series that maps continuities and ruptures in conceptions of power and traces their effects in educational discourse on 'the child'. It delineates two post-Newtonian intellectual trajectories through which concepts of 'power' arrived at the theorization of 'the child': the paradoxical bio-physical inscriptions of human-ness that accompanied mechanistic worldviews and the explanations for social motion in political philosophy. The intersection of pedagogical theories with 'the child' and 'power' is further traced from the latter 1800s to the present, where a Foucaultian analytics of power-as-effects is reconsidered in regard to histories of motion. The analysis culminates in an examination of post-Newtonian (dis)continuities in the theorization of power, suggesting some productive paradoxes that inhabit turn of the 21st-century conceptualizations of the social.

Compositional agent-based models for electricity distribution networks

This thesis presents a novel approach to building large-scale agent-based models of networked physical systems using a compositional approach to provide extensibility and flexibility in building the models and simulations. A software framework (MODAM - MODular Agent-based Model) was implemented for this purpose, and validated through simulations. These simulations allow assessment of the impact of technological change on the electricity distribution network looking at the trajectories of electricity consumption at key locations over many years.

Stochastic growth models for analyzing crustacean data

The contemporary methodology for growth models of organisms is based on continuous trajectories and thus it hinders us from modelling stepwise growth in crustacean populations. Growth models for fish are normally assumed to follow a continuous function, but a different type of model is needed for crustacean growth. Crustaceans must moult in order for them to grow. The growth of crustaceans is a discontinuous process due to the periodical shedding of the exoskeleton in moulting. The stepwise growth of crustaceans through the moulting process makes the growth estimation more complex. Stochastic approaches can be used to model discontinuous growth or what are commonly known as "jumps" (Figure 1). However, in stochastic growth model we need to ensure that the stochastic growth model results in only positive jumps. In view of this, we will introduce a subordinator that is a special case of a Levy process. A subordinator is a non-decreasing Levy process, that will assist in modelling crustacean growth for better understanding of the individual variability and stochasticity in moulting periods and increments. We develop the estimation methods for parameter estimation and illustrate them with the help of a dataset from laboratory experiments. The motivational dataset is from the ornate rock lobster, Panulirus ornatus, which can be found between Australia and Papua New Guinea. Due to the presence of sex effects on the growth (Munday et al., 2004), we estimate the growth parameters separately for each sex. Since all hard parts are shed too often, the exact age determination of a lobster can be challenging. However, the growth parameters for the aforementioned moult processes from tank data being able to estimate through: (i) inter-moult periods, and (ii) moult increment. We will attempt to derive a joint density, which is made up of two functions: one for moult increments and the other for time intervals between moults. We claim these functions are conditionally independent given pre-moult length and the inter-moult periods. The variables moult increments and inter-moult periods are said to be independent because of the Markov property or conditional probability. Hence, the parameters in each function can be estimated separately. Subsequently, we integrate both of the functions through a Monte Carlo method. We can therefore obtain a population mean for crustacean growth (e. g. red curve in Figure 1). [GRAPHICS]

Comparative analysis of traffic state estimation ─ Cumulative counts-based and trajectory-based methods

The Macroscopic Fundamental Diagram (MFD) relates space-mean density and flow. Since the MFD represents the area-wide network traffic performance, studies on perimeter control strategies and network-wide traffic state estimation utilising the MFD concept have been reported. Most previous works have utilised data from fixed sensors, such as inductive loops, to estimate the MFD, which can cause biased estimation in urban networks due to queue spillovers at intersections. To overcome the limitation, recent literature reports the use of trajectory data obtained from probe vehicles. However, these studies have been conducted using simulated datasets; limited works have discussed the limitations of real datasets and their impact on the variable estimation. This study compares two methods for estimating traffic state variables of signalised arterial sections: a method based on cumulative vehicle counts (CUPRITE), and one based on vehicles’ trajectory from taxi Global Positioning System (GPS) log. The comparisons reveal some characteristics of taxi trajectory data available in Brisbane, Australia. The current trajectory data have limitations in quantity (i.e., the penetration rate), due to which the traffic state variables tend to be underestimated. Nevertheless, the trajectory-based method successfully captures the features of traffic states, which suggests that the trajectories from taxis can be a good estimator for the network-wide traffic states.

On an unexpected career path? Using Wittgenstein’s Family Resemblance concept to determine the power of projects to transform project management careers

The power of projects has been demonstrated by the growth in their use across an increasing range of industries and workplaces in recent years. Not only has the number of people involved in project management increased, but the qualifications and backgrounds of those people have also broadened, with engineering no longer being the only path to project management (PM). Predicting the career trajectories in Project Management has become more important for both organisations employing project managers and project managers building career portfolios. Our research involved interviewing more than 75 project officers and project managers across a range of industries to explore their career journey. We used Wittgenstein’s family resemblance theory is to analyse the information from the transcripts to identify the extent to which the roles of participants fit with the commonly accepted definition of project management. Findings demonstrate diversity of project manager backgrounds and experiences and relational competencies across these backgrounds that form and shape PM careers.

Dynamic Bayesian network inferencing for non-homogeneous complex systems

Dynamic Bayesian Networks (DBNs) provide a versatile platform for predicting and analysing the behaviour of complex systems. As such, they are well suited to the prediction of complex ecosystem population trajectories under anthropogenic disturbances such as the dredging of marine seagrass ecosystems. However, DBNs assume a homogeneous Markov chain whereas a key characteristics of complex ecosystems is the presence of feedback loops, path dependencies and regime changes whereby the behaviour of the system can vary based on past states. This paper develops a method based on the small world structure of complex systems networks to modularise a non-homogeneous DBN and enable the computation of posterior marginal probabilities given evidence in forwards inference. It also provides an approach for an approximate solution for backwards inference as convergence is not guaranteed for a path dependent system. When applied to the seagrass dredging problem, the incorporation of path dependency can implement conditional absorption and allows release from the zero state in line with environmental and ecological observations. As dredging has a marked global impact on seagrass and other marine ecosystems of high environmental and economic value, using such a complex systems model to develop practical ways to meet the needs of conservation and industry through enhancing resistance and/or recovery is of paramount importance.

The importance of a precise definition, comprehensive model, and critical discussion of successful aging at work

It is crucial to advance understanding of the concept of successful aging at work to guide rigorous future research and effective practice. Drawing on the gerontology and life-span developmental literatures, I recently proposed a definition and theoretical framework of successful aging at work that revolve around employees increasingly deviating from average developmental trajectories across the working life span. Based on sustainability, person–job fit, and proactivity theories, Kooij suggested an alternative perspective that emphasizes the active role of employees for successful aging at work. In this article, I compare the 2 approaches and attempt a partial integration. I highlight the importance of a precise definition, comprehensive model, and critical discussion of successful aging at work. Furthermore, I suggest that person–environment fit variables other than person–job fit (e.g., person–organization fit) and adapting to person–environment misfit may also contribute to successful aging at work. Finally, I argue that proactive behaviors must have age-differential effects on work outcomes to be considered personal resources for successful aging at work.

A heterogeneous computing approach to simulation of the Heston Stochastic Volatility Model

Stochastic volatility models are of fundamental importance to the pricing of derivatives. One of the most commonly used models of stochastic volatility is the Heston Model in which the price and volatility of an asset evolve as a pair of coupled stochastic differential equations. The computation of asset prices and volatilities involves the simulation of many sample trajectories with conditioning. The problem is treated using the method of particle filtering. While the simulation of a shower of particles is computationally expensive, each particle behaves independently making such simulations ideal for massively parallel heterogeneous computing platforms. In this paper, we present our portable Opencl implementation of the Heston model and discuss its performance and efficiency characteristics on a range of architectures including Intel cpus, Nvidia gpus, and Intel Many-Integrated-Core (mic) accelerators.

Calculations of the free energy of interaction of the c-Fos−c-Jun coiled coil: Effects of the solvation model and the inclusion of polarization effects

The leucine zipper region of activator protein-1 (AP-1) comprises the c-Jun and c-Fos proteins and constitutes a well-known coiled coil protein−protein interaction motif. We have used molecular dynamics (MD) simulations in conjunction with the molecular mechanics/Poisson−Boltzmann generalized-Born surface area [MM/PB(GB)SA] methods to predict the free energy of interaction of these proteins. In particular, the influence of the choice of solvation model, protein force field, and water potential on the stability and dynamic properties of the c-Fos−c-Jun complex were investigated. Use of the AMBER polarizable force field ff02 in combination with the polarizable POL3 water potential was found to result in increased stability of the c-Fos−c-Jun complex. MM/PB(GB)SA calculations revealed that MD simulations using the POL3 water potential give the lowest predicted free energies of interaction compared to other nonpolarizable water potentials. In addition, the calculated absolute free energy of binding was predicted to be closest to the experimental value using the MM/GBSA method with independent MD simulation trajectories using the POL3 water potential and the polarizable ff02 force field, while all other binding affinities were overestimated.

Aircraft trajectory clustering techniques using circular statistics

This paper presents a statistical aircraft trajectory clustering approach aimed at discriminating between typical manned and expected unmanned traffic patterns. First, a resampled version of each trajectory is modelled using a mixture of Von Mises distributions (circular statistics). Second, the remodelled trajectories are globally aligned using tools from bioinformatics. Third, the alignment scores are used to cluster the trajectories using an iterative k-medoids approach and an appropriate distance function. The approach is then evaluated using synthetically generated unmanned aircraft flights combined with real air traffic position reports taken over a sector of Northern Queensland, Australia. Results suggest that the technique is useful in distinguishing between expected unmanned and manned aircraft traffic behaviour, as well as identifying some common conventional air traffic patterns.