Modelling passenger flow at airport terminals : individual agent decision model for stochastic passenger behaviour

Airport system is complex. Passenger dynamics within it appear to be complicate as well. Passenger behaviours outside standard processes are regarded more significant in terms of public hazard and service rate issues. In this paper, we devised an individual agent decision model to simulate stochastic passenger behaviour in airport departure terminal. Bayesian networks are implemented into the decision making model to infer the probabilities that passengers choose to use any in-airport facilities. We aim to understand dynamics of the discretionary activities of passengers.

Three dimensional simulation of a parabolic trough concentrator thermal collector

Parabolic Trough Concentrators (PTC) are the most proven solar collectors for solar thermal power plants, and are suitable for concentrating photovoltaic (CPV) applications. PV cells are sensitive to spatial uniformity of incident light and the cell operating temperature. This requires the design of CPV-PTCs to be optimised both optically and thermally. Optical modelling can be performed using Monte Carlo Ray Tracing (MCRT), with conjugate heat transfer (CHT) modelling using the computational fluid dynamics (CFD) to analyse the overall designs. This paper develops and evaluates a CHT simulation for a concentrating solar thermal PTC collector. It uses the ray tracing work by Cheng et al. (2010) and thermal performance data for LS-2 parabolic trough used in the SEGS III-VII plants from Dudley et al. (1994). This is a preliminary step to developing models to compare heat transfer performances of faceted absorbers for concentrating photovoltaic (CPV) applications. Reasonable agreement between the simulation results and the experimental data confirms the reliability of the numerical model. The model explores different physical issues as well as computational issues for this particular kind of system modeling. The physical issues include the resultant non-uniformity of the boundary heat flux profile and the temperature profile around the tube, and uneven heating of the HTF. The numerical issues include, most importantly, the design of the computational domain/s, and the solution techniques of the turbulence quantities and the near-wall physics. This simulation confirmed that optical simulation and the computational CHT simulation of the collector can be accomplished independently.

Parametric modelling for the efficient design of daylight strategies with complex geometries

Daylight devices are important components of any climate responsive façade system. But, the evolution of parametric CAD systems and digital fabrication has had an impact on architectural form so that regular forms are shifting to complex geometries. Architectural and engineering integration of daylight devices in envelopes with complex geometries is a challenge in terms of design and performance evaluation. The purpose of this paper is to assess daylight performance of a building with a climatic responsive envelope with complex geometry that integrates shading devices in the façade. The case study is based on the Esplanade buildings in Singapore. Climate-based day-light metrics such as Daylight Availability and Useful Daylight Illuminance are used. DIVA (daylight simulation), and Grasshopper (parametric analysis) plug-ins for Rhinoceros have been employed to examine the range of performance possibilities. Parameters such as dimension, inclination of the device, projected shadows and shape have been changed in order to maximize daylight availability and Useful Daylight Illuminance while minimizing glare probability. While orientation did not have a great impact on the results, aperture of the shading devices did, showing that shading devices with a projection of 1.75 m to 2.00 m performed best, achieving target lighting levels without issues of glare.

Complex Modelling in the Primary and Middle School Years : An Interdisciplinary Approach

The world’s increasing complexity, competitiveness, interconnectivity, and dependence on technology generate new challenges for nations and individuals that cannot be met by continuing education as usual. With the proliferation of complex systems have come new technologies for communication, collaboration, and conceptualisation. These technologies have led to signifi cant changes in the forms of mathematical and scientifi c thinking required beyond the classroom. Modelling, in its various forms, can develop and broaden students’ mathematical and scientific thinking beyond the standard curriculum. This chapter first considers future competencies in the mathematical sciences within an increasingly complex world. Consideration is then given to interdisciplinary problem solving and models and modelling, as one means of addressing these competencies. Illustrative case studies involving complex, interdisciplinary modelling activities in Years 1 and 7 are presented.

Asymptotic minimax robust and misspecified Lorden quickest change detection for dependent stochastic processes

The quick detection of an abrupt unknown change in the conditional distribution of a dependent stochastic process has numerous applications. In this paper, we pose a minimax robust quickest change detection problem for cases where there is uncertainty about the post-change conditional distribution. Our minimax robust formulation is based on the popular Lorden criteria of optimal quickest change detection. Under a condition on the set of possible post-change distributions, we show that the widely known cumulative sum (CUSUM) rule is asymptotically minimax robust under our Lorden minimax robust formulation as a false alarm constraint becomes more strict. We also establish general asymptotic bounds on the detection delay of misspecified CUSUM rules (i.e. CUSUM rules that are designed with post- change distributions that differ from those of the observed sequence). We exploit these bounds to compare the delay performance of asymptotically minimax robust, asymptotically optimal, and other misspecified CUSUM rules. In simulation examples, we illustrate that asymptotically minimax robust CUSUM rules can provide better detection delay performance at greatly reduced computation effort compared to competing generalised likelihood ratio procedures.

Systems modelling of the socio-technical aspects of residential electricity use and network peak demand

Provision of network infrastructure to meet rising network peak demand is increasing the cost of electricity. Addressing this demand is a major imperative for Australian electricity agencies. The network peak demand model reported in this paper provides a quantified decision support tool and a means of understanding the key influences and impacts on network peak demand. An investigation of the system factors impacting residential consumers’ peak demand for electricity was undertaken in Queensland, Australia. Technical factors, such as the customers’ location, housing construction and appliances, were combined with social factors, such as household demographics, culture, trust and knowledge, and Change Management Options (CMOs) such as tariffs, price,managed supply, etc., in a conceptual ‘map’ of the system. A Bayesian network was used to quantify the model and provide insights into the major influential factors and their interactions. The model was also used to examine the reduction in network peak demand with different market-based and government interventions in various customer locations of interest and investigate the relative importance of instituting programs that build trust and knowledge through well designed customer-industry engagement activities. The Bayesian network was implemented via a spreadsheet with a tick box interface. The model combined available data from industry-specific and public sources with relevant expert opinion. The results revealed that the most effective intervention strategies involve combining particular CMOs with associated education and engagement activities. The model demonstrated the importance of designing interventions that take into account the interactions of the various elements of the socio-technical system. The options that provided the greatest impact on peak demand were Off-Peak Tariffs and Managed Supply and increases in the price of electricity. The impact in peak demand reduction differed for each of the locations and highlighted that household numbers, demographics as well as the different climates were significant factors. It presented possible network peak demand reductions which would delay any upgrade of networks, resulting in savings for Queensland utilities and ultimately for households. The use of this systems approach using Bayesian networks to assist the management of peak demand in different modelled locations in Queensland provided insights about the most important elements in the system and the intervention strategies that could be tailored to the targeted customer segments.

Clarification of the low-frequency modelling concept for marine craft

This article presents some remarks on models currently used in low speed manoeuvring and dynamic positioning problems. It discusses the relationship between the classical hydrodynamic equations for manoeuvring and seakeeping, and offers insight into the models used for simulation and control system design.

A heterogeneous computing approach to simulation of the Heston Stochastic Volatility Model

Stochastic volatility models are of fundamental importance to the pricing of derivatives. One of the most commonly used models of stochastic volatility is the Heston Model in which the price and volatility of an asset evolve as a pair of coupled stochastic differential equations. The computation of asset prices and volatilities involves the simulation of many sample trajectories with conditioning. The problem is treated using the method of particle filtering. While the simulation of a shower of particles is computationally expensive, each particle behaves independently making such simulations ideal for massively parallel heterogeneous computing platforms. In this paper, we present our portable Opencl implementation of the Heston model and discuss its performance and efficiency characteristics on a range of architectures including Intel cpus, Nvidia gpus, and Intel Many-Integrated-Core (mic) accelerators.

Integrating science through Bayesian Belief Networks : case study of Lyngbya in Moreton Bay

Bayesian Belief Networks (BBNs) are emerging as valuable tools for investigating complex ecological problems. In a BBN, the important variables in a problem are identified and causal relationships are represented graphically. Underpinning this is the probabilistic framework in which variables can take on a finite range of mutually exclusive states. Associated with each variable is a conditional probability table (CPT), showing the probability of a variable attaining each of its possible states conditioned on all possible combinations of it parents. Whilst the variables (nodes) are connected, the CPT attached to each node can be quantified independently. This allows each variable to be populated with the best data available, including expert opinion, simulation results or observed data. It also allows the information to be easily updated as better data become available ----- ----- This paper reports on the process of developing a BBN to better understand the initial rapid growth phase (initiation) of a marine cyanobacterium, Lyngbya majuscula, in Moreton Bay, Queensland. Anecdotal evidence suggests that Lyngbya blooms in this region have increased in severity and extent over the past decade. Lyngbya has been associated with acute dermatitis and a range of other health problems in humans. Blooms have been linked to ecosystem degradation and have also damaged commercial and recreational fisheries. However, the causes of blooms are as yet poorly understood.

The science of assessment : identifying and predicting environmental impacts

The historical challenge of environmental impact assessment (EIA) has been to predict project-based impacts accurately. Both EIA legislation and the practice of EIA have evolved over the last three decades in Canada, and the development of the discipline and science of environmental assessment has improved how we apply environmental assessment to complex projects. The practice of environmental assessment integrates the social and natural sciences and relies on an eclectic knowledge base from a wide range of sources. EIA methods and tools provide a means to structure and integrate knowledge in order to evaluate and predict environmental impacts.----- This Chapter will provide a brief overview of how impacts are identified and predicted. How do we determine what aspect of the natural and social environment will be affected when a mine is excavated? How does the practitioner determine the range of potential impacts, assess whether they are significant, and predict the consequences? There are no standard answers to these questions, but there are established methods to provide a foundation for scoping and predicting the potential impacts of a project.----- Of course, the community and publics play an important role in this process, and this will be discussed in subsequent chapters. In the first part of this chapter, we will deal with impact identification, which involves appplying scoping to critical issues and determining impact significance, baseline ecosystem evaluation techniques, and how to communicate environmental impacts. In the second part of the chapter, we discuss the prediction of impacts in relation to the complexity of the environment, ecological risk assessment, and modelling.

Impact response and parametric studies of reinforced concrete circular columns

This paper presents a detailed description of the influence of critical parameters that govern the vulnerability of columns under lateral impact loads. Numerical simulations are conducted by using the Finite Element program LS-DYNA, incorporating steel reinforcement, material models and strain rate effects. A simplified method based on impact pulse generated from full scale impact tests is used for impact reconstruction and effects of the various pulse loading parameters are investigated under low to medium velocity impacts. A constitutive material model which can simulate failures under tri-axial state of stresses is used for concrete. Confinement effects are also introduced to the numerical simulation and columns of Grade 30 to 50 concrete under pure axial loading are analysed in detail. This research confirmed that the vulnerability of the axially loaded columns can be mitigated by reducing the slenderness ratio and concrete grade, and by choosing the design option with a minimal amount of longitudinal steel. Additionally, it is evident that approximately a 50% increase in impact capacity can be gained for columns in medium rise buildings by enhancing the confinement effects alone. Results also indicated that the ductility as well as the mode of failure under impact can be changed with the volumetric ratio of lateral steel. Moreover, to increase the impact capacity of the vulnerable columns, a higher confining stress is required. The general provisions of current design codes do not sufficiently cover this aspect and hence this research will provide additional guidelines to overcome the inadequacies of code provisions.

Application of Dynamic Hysteresis Band Height Control to Improve Output Voltage Transient in Boost and Positive Buck-Boost Converters

This paper presents dynamic hysteresis band height control to reduce the overshoot and undershoot issue on output voltage caused by load change. The converters in this study are Boost and Positive Buck-Boost (PBB) converters. PBB has been controlled to work in a step up conversion and avoid overshoot when load is changed. Simulation and experimental results have been presented to verify the proposed method.

A study into the permeability and compressibility of Australian bagasse pulp

This is an experimental study into the permeability and compressibility properties of bagasse pulp pads. Three experimental rigs were custom-built for this project. The experimental work is complemented by modelling work. Both the steady-state and dynamic behaviour of pulp pads are evaluated in the experimental and modelling components of this project. Bagasse, the fibrous residue that remains after sugar is extracted from sugarcane, is normally burnt in Australia to generate steam and electricity for the sugar factory. A study into bagasse pulp was motivated by the possibility of making highly value-added pulp products from bagasse for the financial benefit of sugarcane millers and growers. The bagasse pulp and paper industry is a multibillion dollar industry (1). Bagasse pulp could replace eucalypt pulp which is more widely used in the local production of paper products. An opportunity exists for replacing the large quantity of mainly generic paper products imported to Australia. This includes 949,000 tonnes of generic photocopier papers (2). The use of bagasse pulp for paper manufacture is the main application area of interest for this study. Bagasse contains a large quantity of short parenchyma cells called ‘pith’. Around 30% of the shortest fibres are removed from bagasse prior to pulping. Despite the ‘depithing’ operations in conventional bagasse pulp mills, a large amount of pith remains in the pulp. Amongst Australian paper producers there is a perception that the high quantity of short fibres in bagasse pulp leads to poor filtration behaviour at the wet-end of a paper machine. Bagasse pulp’s poor filtration behaviour reduces paper production rates and consequently revenue when compared to paper production using locally made eucalypt pulp. Pulp filtration can be characterised by two interacting factors; permeability and compressibility. Surprisingly, there has previously been very little rigorous investigation into neither bagasse pulp permeability nor compressibility. Only freeness testing of bagasse pulp has been published in the open literature. As a result, this study has focussed on a detailed investigation of the filtration properties of bagasse pulp pads. As part of this investigation, this study investigated three options for improving the permeability and compressibility properties of Australian bagasse pulp pads. Two options for further pre-treating depithed bagasse prior to pulping were considered. Firstly, bagasse was fractionated based on size. Two bagasse fractions were produced, ‘coarse’ and ‘medium’ bagasse fractions. Secondly, bagasse was collected after being processed on two types of juice extraction technology, i.e. from a sugar mill and from a sugar diffuser. Finally one method of post-treating the bagasse pulp was investigated. The effects of chemical additives, which are known to improve freeness, were also assessed for their effect on pulp pad permeability and compressibility. Pre-treated Australian bagasse pulp samples were compared with several benchmark pulp samples. A sample of commonly used kraft Eucalyptus globulus pulp was obtained. A sample of depithed Argentinean bagasse, which is used for commercial paper production, was also obtained. A sample of Australian bagasse which was depithed as per typical factory operations was also produced for benchmarking purposes. The steady-state pulp pad permeability and compressibility parameters were determined experimentally using two purpose-built experimental rigs. In reality, steady-state conditions do not exist on a paper machine. The permeability changes as the sheet compresses over time. Hence, a dynamic model was developed which uses the experimentally determined steady-state permeability and compressibility parameters as inputs. The filtration model was developed with a view to designing pulp processing equipment that is suitable specifically for bagasse pulp. The predicted results of the dynamic model were compared to experimental data. The effectiveness of a polymeric and microparticle chemical additives for improving the retention of short fibres and increasing the drainage rate of a bagasse pulp slurry was determined in a third purpose-built rig; a modified Dynamic Drainage Jar (DDJ). These chemical additives were then used in the making of a pulp pad, and their effect on the steady-state and dynamic permeability and compressibility of bagasse pulp pads was determined. The most important finding from this investigation was that Australian bagasse pulp was produced with higher permeability than eucalypt pulp, despite a higher overall content of short fibres. It is thought this research outcome could enable Australian paper producers to switch from eucalypt pulp to bagasse pulp without sacrificing paper machine productivity. It is thought that two factors contributed to the high permeability of the bagasse pulp pad. Firstly, thicker cell walls of the bagasse pulp fibres resulted in high fibre stiffness. Secondly, the bagasse pulp had a large proportion of fibres longer than 1.3 mm. These attributes helped to reinforce the pulp pad matrix. The steady-state permeability and compressibility parameters for the eucalypt pulp were consistent with those found by previous workers. It was also found that Australian pulp derived from the ‘coarse’ bagasse fraction had higher steady-state permeability than the ‘medium’ fraction. However, there was no difference between bagasse pulp originating from a diffuser or a mill. The bagasse pre-treatment options investigated in this study were not found to affect the steady-state compressibility parameters of a pulp pad. The dynamic filtration model was found to give predictions that were in good agreement with experimental data for pads made from samples of pretreated bagasse pulp, provided at least some pith was removed prior to pulping. Applying vacuum to a pulp slurry in the modified DDJ dramatically reduced the drainage time. At any level of vacuum, bagasse pulp benefitted from chemical additives as quantified by reduced drainage time and increased retention of short fibres. Using the modified DDJ, it was observed that under specific conditions, a benchmark depithed bagasse pulp drained more rapidly than the ‘coarse’ bagasse pulp. In steady-state permeability and compressibility experiments, the addition of chemical additives improved the pad permeability and compressibility of a benchmark bagasse pulp with a high quantity of short fibres. Importantly, this effect was not observed for the ‘coarse’ bagasse pulp. However, dynamic filtration experiments showed that there was also a small observable improvement in filtration for the ‘medium’ bagasse pulp. The mechanism of bagasse pulp pad consolidation appears to be by fibre realignment. Chemical additives assist to lubricate the consolidation process. This study was complemented by pulp physical and chemical property testing and a microscopy study. In addition to its high pulp pad permeability, ‘coarse’ bagasse pulp often (but not always) had superior physical properties than a benchmark depithed bagasse pulp.