Understanding Uncertainties in Non-Linear Population Trajectories: A Bayesian Semi-Parametric Hierarchical Approach to Large-Scale Surveys of Coral Cover

Recently, attempts to improve decision making in species management have focussed on uncertainties associated with modelling temporal fluctuations in populations. Reducing model uncertainty is challenging; while larger samples improve estimation of species trajectories and reduce statistical errors, they typically amplify variability in observed trajectories. In particular, traditional modelling approaches aimed at estimating population trajectories usually do not account well for nonlinearities and uncertainties associated with multi-scale observations characteristic of large spatio-temporal surveys. We present a Bayesian semi-parametric hierarchical model for simultaneously quantifying uncertainties associated with model structure and parameters, and scale-specific variability over time. We estimate uncertainty across a four-tiered spatial hierarchy of coral cover from the Great Barrier Reef. Coral variability is well described; however, our results show that, in the absence of additional model specifications, conclusions regarding coral trajectories become highly uncertain when considering multiple reefs, suggesting that management should focus more at the scale of individual reefs. The approach presented facilitates the description and estimation of population trajectories and associated uncertainties when variability cannot be attributed to specific causes and origins. We argue that our model can unlock value contained in large-scale datasets, provide guidance for understanding sources of uncertainty, and support better informed decision making

Observing privacy, modesty and hospitality in the home domain : three case studies of Muslim homes in Brisbane, Australia

A home embodies a sensorial space that is layered with personal memories and traces of history. The success of a home in providing a strong sense of place depends on various factors such as geographical location, climatic conditions, and occupants’ world-views and perceptions. This paper explores Muslims’ perceptions of privacy, modesty and hospitality within their homes through their lived experiences. This case study focuses on three Muslim families living in Australian designed homes within the same suburb of Brisbane, Australia. The study provides prefatory insight into the ways in which these families perform their daily activities and entertain their guests without jeopardizing their privacy needs. The study examines the significance of modesty in the design of Muslim homes as a means by which family members are able to achieve optimum privacy while simultaneously extending hospitality to guests inside and outside their homes. The findings of this study provide opportunities too, for expanding research into culturally adaptable housing systems to help meet the changing needs of Australian multicultural society.

Using qualitative mixed methods to study small health care organizations while maximising trustworthiness and authenticity

Background The primary health care sector delivers the majority of health care in western countries through small, community-based organizations. However, research into these healthcare organizations is limited by the time constraints and pressure facing them, and the concern by staff that research is peripheral to their work. We developed Q-RARA—Qualitative Rapid Appraisal, Rigorous Analysis—to study small, primary health care organizations in a way that is efficient, acceptable to participants and methodologically rigorous. Methods Q-RARA comprises a site visit, semi-structured interviews, structured and unstructured observations, photographs, floor plans, and social scanning data. Data were collected over the course of one day per site and the qualitative analysis was integrated and iterative. Results We found Q-RARA to be acceptable to participants and effective in collecting data on organizational function in multiple sites without disrupting the practice, while maintaining a balance between speed and trustworthiness. Conclusions The Q-RARA approach is capable of providing a richly textured, rigorous understanding of the processes of the primary care practice while also allowing researchers to develop an organizational perspective. For these reasons the approach is recommended for use in small-scale organizations both within and outside the primary health care sector.

Flammability and thermal properties of novel semi aromatic polyamide/organoclay nanocomposite

The development of semi aromatic polyamide/organoclays nanocomposites (PANC) is reported in this communication. New polyamide (PA) was successfully synthesized through direct polycondensation reaction between bio-based diacid and aromatic diamine. PA exhibited strong UV vis absorption band at 412 nm. Its photoluminescence spectrum showed maximum band at 511 nm in the green region. The surface modification of montmorillonite was carried out through ion-exchange reaction using 1,4-bis[4-aminophenoxy]butane (APB) as a modifier. Then PANCs containing 3 and 6 wt.% of the modified montmorillonite (MMT-APB) were prepared. Flammability and thermal properties of PA and the nanocomposites were studied by microscale combustion calorimeter (MCC), thermogravimetric analysis (TGA) and differential scanning calorimetry (DSC). TGA results in both air and nitrogen atmospheres indicated improving in thermal properties of PANCs compared to the neat PA. According to MCC analysis, a 31.6% reduction in pHRR value has been achieved by introducing 6 wt.% of the organoclay in PA matrix.

Growing rod analysis for the fusionless correction of early onset scoliosis (EOS)

Managing spinal deformities in young children is challenging, particularly early onset scoliosis (EOS). Surgical intervention is often required if EOS has been unresponsive to conservative treatment particularly with rapidly progressive curves. An emerging treatment option for EOS is fusionless scoliosis surgery. Similar to bracing, this surgical option potentially harnesses growth, motion and function of the spine along with correcting spinal deformity. Dual growing rods are one such fusionless treatment, which aims to modulate growth of the vertebrae. The aim of this study was to ascertain the extent to which semi-constrained growing rods (Medtronic Sofamor Danek Memphis, TN, USA) with a telescopic sleeve component, reduce rotational constraint on the spine compared with standard rigid rods and hence potentially provide a more physiological mechanical environment for the growing spine. This study found that semi-constrained growing rods would be expected to allow growth via the telescopic rod components while maintaining the axial flexibility of the spine and the improved capacity for final correction.

Effects of strain artefacts arising from a pre-defined callus domain in models of bone healing mechanobiology

Iterative computational models have been used to investigate the regulation of bone fracture healing by local mechanical conditions. Although their predictions replicate some mechanical responses and histological features, they do not typically reproduce the predominantly radial hard callus growth pattern observed in larger mammals. We hypothesised that this discrepancy results from an artefact of the models’ initial geometry. Using axisymmetric finite element models, we demonstrated that pre-defining a field of soft tissue in which callus may develop introduces high deviatoric strains in the periosteal region adjacent to the fracture. These bone-inhibiting strains are not present when the initial soft tissue is confined to a thin periosteal layer. As observed in previous healing models, tissue differentiation algorithms regulated by deviatoric strain predicted hard callus forming remotely and growing towards the fracture. While dilatational strain regulation allowed early bone formation closer to the fracture, hard callus still formed initially over a broad area, rather than expanding over time. Modelling callus growth from a thin periosteal layer successfully predicted the initiation of hard callus growth close to the fracture site. However, these models were still susceptible to elevated deviatoric strains in the soft tissues at the edge of the hard callus. Our study highlights the importance of the initial soft tissue geometry used for finite element models of fracture healing. If this cannot be defined accurately, alternative mechanisms for the prediction of early callus development should be investigated.

A fast semi-implicit difference method for a nonlinear two-sided space-fractional diffusion equation with variable diffusivity coefficients

In this paper, we derive a new nonlinear two-sided space-fractional diffusion equation with variable coefficients from the fractional Fick’s law. A semi-implicit difference method (SIDM) for this equation is proposed. The stability and convergence of the SIDM are discussed. For the implementation, we develop a fast accurate iterative method for the SIDM by decomposing the dense coefficient matrix into a combination of Toeplitz-like matrices. This fast iterative method significantly reduces the storage requirement of O(n2)O(n2) and computational cost of O(n3)O(n3) down to n and O(nlogn)O(nlogn), where n is the number of grid points. The method retains the same accuracy as the underlying SIDM solved with Gaussian elimination. Finally, some numerical results are shown to verify the accuracy and efficiency of the new method.

Numerical simulation of railway track supporting system using finite-infinite and thin layer elements under impulsive loads

The present study deals with two dimensional, numerical simulation of railway track supporting system subjected to dynamic excitation force. Under plane strain condition, the coupled finite-infinite elements to represent the near and far field stress distribution and thin layer interface element was employed to model the interfacial behavior between sleepers and ballast. To account for the relative debonding, slipping and crushing that could take place in the contact area between the sleepers and ballast, modified Mohr-Coulomb criterion was adopted. Furthermore an attempt has been made to consider the elasto-plastic material non-linearity of the railway track supporting media by employing different constitutive models to represent steel, concrete and supporting materials. Based on the proposed physical and constitutive modeling a code has been developed for dynamic loads. The applicability of the developed F.E code has been demonstrated by analyzing a real railway supporting structure.

The synthesis, characterization, X-ray structure and magnetism of dinuclear-based bis[μ-(1,1,3,3-tetracyano-2-ethoxypropenido-κ2N,N′) (1,1,3,3-tetracyano-2-ethoxypropenido-κN)(2,2′-bipyridine)copper(II)] organized in alternating chains via semi-coordinating Cu–N distances

The monoanionic ligand 1,1,3,3 tetracyano-2 ethoxypropenide (tcnoet) is reported with its Cu(II)–bpy complex of formula [Cu2(µ-tcnoet)2(tcnoet)2(bpy)2]. The structure has been determined using X-ray diffraction and features an alternating chain with bridging tcnoet ligands. One ligand acts as a bidentate, dinucleating ligand with one short Cu–N and one medium Cu–N bond, whereas the other tcnoet is largely monodentate, albeit with a very weak interdimer Cu–N bond. Despite the arrangement in dinuclear units, further arranged into linear chains through the non-bridging tcnoet ligand, the compound shows no significant magnetic exchange, as deduced from magnetic susceptibility down to 4 K. Ligand-field, IR and EPR spectra in the solid state and in frozen solution are reported and are consistent with the overall structure.

Improving out-domain PLDA speaker verification using unsupervised inter-dataset variability compensation approach

Experimental studies have found that when the state-of-the-art probabilistic linear discriminant analysis (PLDA) speaker verification systems are trained using out-domain data, it significantly affects speaker verification performance due to the mismatch between development data and evaluation data. To overcome this problem we propose a novel unsupervised inter dataset variability (IDV) compensation approach to compensate the dataset mismatch. IDV-compensated PLDA system achieves over 10% relative improvement in EER values over out-domain PLDA system by effectively compensating the mismatch between in-domain and out-domain data.

Fast unscented transformation-based transient stability margin estimation incorporating uncertainty of wind generation

Intermittent generation from wind farms leads to fluctuating power system operating conditions pushing the stability margin to its limits. The traditional way of determining the worst case generation dispatch for a system with several semi-scheduled wind generators yields a conservative solution. This paper proposes a fast estimation of the transient stability margin (TSM) incorporating the uncertainty of wind generation. First, the Kalman filter (KF) is used to provide linear estimation of system angle and then unscented transformation (UT) is used to estimate the distribution of the TSM. The proposed method is compared with the traditional Monte Carlo (MC) method and the effectiveness of the proposed approach is verified using Single Machine Infinite Bus (SMIB) and IEEE 14 generator Australian dynamic system. This method will aid grid operators to perform fast online calculations to estimate TSM distribution of a power system with high levels of intermittent wind generation.

Semi-automated annotation of environmental acoustic recordings

Environmental sensors collect massive amounts of audio data. This thesis investigates computational methods to support human analysts in identifying faunal vocalisations from that audio. A series of experiments was conducted to trial the effectiveness of novel user interfaces. This research examines the rapid scanning of spectrograms, decision support tools for users, and cleaning methods for folksonomies. Together, these investigations demonstrate that providing computational support to human analysts increases their efficiency and accuracy; this allows bioacoustics projects to efficiently utilise their valuable human analysts.

Numerical treatment of a two-dimensional variable-order fractional nonlinear reaction-diffusion model

A two-dimensional variable-order fractional nonlinear reaction-diffusion model is considered. A second-order spatial accurate semi-implicit alternating direction method for a two-dimensional variable-order fractional nonlinear reaction-diffusion model is proposed. Stability and convergence of the semi-implicit alternating direct method are established. Finally, some numerical examples are given to support our theoretical analysis. These numerical techniques can be used to simulate a two-dimensional variable order fractional FitzHugh-Nagumo model in a rectangular domain. This type of model can be used to describe how electrical currents flow through the heart, controlling its contractions, and are used to ascertain the effects of certain drugs designed to treat arrhythmia.