243 resultados para Risks Assessment Methods


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This study examined the association between socio-environmental factors and suicide in Australia. The high risk areas were identified using advanced spatial analysis methods. Higher proportion of Indigenous population, unemployment rate and bigger temperature difference appeared to be among the main socio-environmental drivers of suicide across different places. Both temperature difference and unemployment were positively associated with suicide over time in general. Temperature difference seemed to affect suicide more in months when unemployment rates were high compared with the periods when unemployment rates were low. The findings may provide useful information for determining the socio-environmental impact on suicide and designing effective suicide control and prevention programs.

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Climate change is expected to be one of the biggest global health threats in the 21st century. In response to changes in climate and associated extreme events, public health adaptation has become imperative. This thesis examined several key issues in this emerging research field. The thesis aimed to identify the climate-health (particularly temperature-health) relationships, then develop quantitative models that can be used to project future health impacts of climate change, and therefore help formulate adaptation strategies for dealing with climate-related health risks and reducing vulnerability. The research questions addressed by this thesis were: (1) What are the barriers to public health adaptation to climate change? What are the research priorities in this emerging field? (2) What models and frameworks can be used to project future temperature-related mortality under different climate change scenarios? (3) What is the actual burden of temperature-related mortality? What are the impacts of climate change on future burden of disease? and (4) Can we develop public health adaptation strategies to manage the health effects of temperature in response to climate change? Using a literature review, I discussed how public health organisations should implement and manage the process of planned adaptation. This review showed that public health adaptation can operate at two levels: building adaptive capacity and implementing adaptation actions. However, there are constraints and barriers to adaptation arising from uncertainty, cost, technologic limits, institutional arrangements, deficits of social capital, and individual perception of risks. The opportunities for planning and implementing public health adaptation are reliant on effective strategies to overcome likely barriers. I proposed that high priorities should be given to multidisciplinary research on the assessment of potential health effects of climate change, projections of future health impacts under different climate and socio-economic scenarios, identification of health cobenefits of climate change policies, and evaluation of cost-effective public health adaptation options. Heat-related mortality is the most direct and highly-significant potential climate change impact on human health. I thus conducted a systematic review of research and methods for projecting future heat-related mortality under different climate change scenarios. The review showed that climate change is likely to result in a substantial increase in heatrelated mortality. Projecting heat-related mortality requires understanding of historical temperature-mortality relationships, and consideration of future changes in climate, population and acclimatisation. Further research is needed to provide a stronger theoretical framework for mortality projections, including a better understanding of socioeconomic development, adaptation strategies, land-use patterns, air pollution and mortality displacement. Most previous studies were designed to examine temperature-related excess deaths or mortality risks. However, if most temperature-related deaths occur in the very elderly who had only a short life expectancy, then the burden of temperature on mortality would have less public health importance. To guide policy decisions and resource allocation, it is desirable to know the actual burden of temperature-related mortality. To achieve this, I used years of life lost to provide a new measure of health effects of temperature. I conducted a time-series analysis to estimate years of life lost associated with changes in season and temperature in Brisbane, Australia. I also projected the future temperaturerelated years of life lost attributable to climate change. This study showed that the association between temperature and years of life lost was U-shaped, with increased years of life lost on cold and hot days. The temperature-related years of life lost will worsen greatly if future climate change goes beyond a 2 °C increase and without any adaptation to higher temperatures. The excess mortality during prolonged extreme temperatures is often greater than the predicted using smoothed temperature-mortality association. This is because sustained period of extreme temperatures produce an extra effect beyond that predicted by daily temperatures. To better estimate the burden of extreme temperatures, I estimated their effects on years of life lost due to cardiovascular disease using data from Brisbane, Australia. The results showed that the association between daily mean temperature and years of life lost due to cardiovascular disease was U-shaped, with the lowest years of life lost at 24 °C (the 75th percentile of daily mean temperature in Brisbane), rising progressively as temperatures become hotter or colder. There were significant added effects of heat waves, but no added effects of cold spells. Finally, public health adaptation to hot weather is necessary and pressing. I discussed how to manage the health effects of temperature, especially with the context of climate change. Strategies to minimise the health effects of high temperatures and climate change can fall into two categories: reducing the heat exposure and managing the health effects of high temperatures. However, policy decisions need information on specific adaptations, together with their expected costs and benefits. Therefore, more research is needed to evaluate cost-effective adaptation options. In summary, this thesis adds to the large body of literature on the impacts of temperature and climate change on human health. It improves our understanding of the temperaturehealth relationship, and how this relationship will change as temperatures increase. Although the research is limited to one city, which restricts the generalisability of the findings, the methods and approaches developed in this thesis will be useful to other researchers studying temperature-health relationships and climate change impacts. The results may be helpful for decision-makers who develop public health adaptation strategies to minimise the health effects of extreme temperatures and climate change.

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Purpose Videokeratoscopy images can be used for the non-invasive assessment of the tear film. In this work the applicability of an image processing technique, textural-analysis, for the assessment of the tear film in Placido disc images has been investigated. Methods In the presence of tear film thinning/break-up, the reflected pattern from the videokeratoscope is disturbed in the region of tear film disruption. Thus, the Placido pattern carries information about the stability of the underlying tear film. By characterizing the pattern regularity, the tear film quality can be inferred. In this paper, a textural features approach is used to process the Placido images. This method provides a set of texture features from which an estimate of the tear film quality can be obtained. The method is tested for the detection of dry eye in a retrospective dataset from 34 subjects (22-normal and 12-dry eye), with measurements taken under suppressed blinking conditions. Results To assess the capability of each texture-feature to discriminate dry eye from normal subjects, the receiver operating curve (ROC) was calculated and the area under the curve (AUC), specificity and sensitivity extracted. For the different features examined, the AUC value ranged from 0.77 to 0.82, while the sensitivity typically showed values above 0.9 and the specificity showed values around 0.6. Overall, the estimated ROCs indicate that the proposed technique provides good discrimination performance. Conclusions Texture analysis of videokeratoscopy images is applicable to study tear film anomalies in dry eye subjects. The proposed technique appears to have demonstrated its clinical relevance and utility.

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Assessment of learning plays a dominant role in formal education in the forms of determining features of curriculum that are emphasized, pedagogic methods that teachers use with their students, and parents’ and employers’ understanding of how well students have performed. A common perception is that fair assessment applies the same mode of assessment and content focus for all students—the approach of assessments in international comparative studies of science achievement. This article examines research evidence demonstrating that the act of assessment is not neutral—different forms of assessment advantage or disadvantage groups of students on the basis of family backgrounds, gender, race, or disability. Assessment that implicitly or explicitly captures the social capital of the child serves to consolidate, not address, educational equity. The article provides an overview of ways that science curriculum focus and assessment can introduce bias in the identification of student achievement. It examines the effect of changes to curriculum and assessment approaches in science, and relationships between assessment of science and the cultural context of the student. Recommendations are provided for science–assessment research to address bias for different groups of students.

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INTRODUCTION In retrospective analyses of patients with nonsquamous non-small-cell lung cancer treated with pemetrexed, low thymidylate synthase (TS) expression is associated with better clinical outcomes. This phase II study explored this association prospectively at the protein and mRNA-expression level. METHODS Treatment-naive patients with nonsquamous non-small-cell lung cancer (stage IIIB/IV) had four cycles of first-line chemotherapy with pemetrexed/cisplatin. Nonprogressing patients continued on pemetrexed maintenance until progression or maximum tolerability. TS expression (nucleus/cytoplasm/total) was assessed in diagnostic tissue samples by immunohistochemistry (IHC; H-scores), and quantitative reverse-transcriptase polymerase chain reaction. Cox regression was used to assess the association between H-scores and progression-free/overall survival (PFS/OS) distribution estimated by the Kaplan-Meier method. Maximal χ analysis identified optimal cutpoints between low TS- and high TS-expression groups, yielding maximal associations with PFS/OS. RESULTS The study enrolled 70 patients; of these 43 (61.4%) started maintenance treatment. In 60 patients with valid H-scores, median (m) PFS was 5.5 (95% confidence interval [CI], 3.9-6.9) months, mOS was 9.6 (95% CI, 7.3-15.7) months. Higher nuclear TS expression was significantly associated with shorter PFS and OS (primary analysis IHC, PFS: p < 0.0001; hazard ratio per 1-unit increase: 1.015; 95%CI, 1.008-1.021). At the optimal cutpoint of nuclear H-score (70), mPFS in the low TS- versus high TS-expression groups was 7.1 (5.7-8.3) versus 2.6 (1.3-4.1) months (p = 0.0015; hazard ratio = 0.28; 95%CI, 0.16-0.52; n = 40/20). Trends were similar for cytoplasm H-scores, quantitative reverse-transcriptase polymerase chain reaction and other clinical endpoints (OS, response, and disease control). CONCLUSIONS The primary endpoint was met; low TS expression was associated with longer PFS. Further randomized studies are needed to explore nuclear TS IHC expression as a potential biomarker of clinical outcomes for pemetrexed treatment in larger patient cohorts. © 2013 by the International Association for the Study of Lung Cancer.

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Fossils and sediments preserved in caves are an excellent source of information for investigating impacts of past environmental changes on biodiversity. Until recently studies have relied on morphology-based palaeontological approaches, but recent advances in molecular analytical methods offer excellent potential for extracting a greater array of biological information from these sites. This study presents a thorough assessment of DNA preservation from late Pleistocene–Holocene vertebrate fossils and sediments from Kelly Hill Cave Kangaroo Island, South Australia. Using a combination of extraction techniques and sequencing technologies, ancient DNA was characterised from over 70 bones and 20 sediment samples from 15 stratigraphic layers ranging in age from >20 ka to ∼6.8 ka. A combination of primers targeting marsupial and placental mammals, reptiles and two universal plant primers were used to reveal genetic biodiversity for comparison with the mainland and with the morphological fossil record for Kelly Hill Cave. We demonstrate that Kelly Hill Cave has excellent long-term DNA preservation, back to at least 20 ka. This contrasts with the majority of Australian cave sites thus far explored for ancient DNA preservation, and highlights the great promise Kangaroo Island caves hold for yielding the hitherto-elusive DNA of extinct Australian Pleistocene species.

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Extrapulmonary small cell and small cell neuroendocrine tumors of unknown primary site are, in general, aggressive neoplasms with a short median survival. Like small cell lung cancer (SCLC), they often are responsive to chemotherapy and radiotherapy. Small cell lung cancer and well differentiated neuroendocrine carcinomas of the gastrointestinal tract and pancreas tend to express somatostatin receptors. These tumors may be localized in patients by scintigraphic imaging using radiolabeled somatostatin analogues. A patient with an anaplastic neuroendocrine small cell tumor arising on a background of multiple endocrine neoplasia type 1 syndrome is reported. The patient had a known large pancreatic gastrinoma and previously treated parathyroid adenopathy. At presentation, there was small cell cancer throughout the liver and skeleton. Imaging with a radiolabeled somatostatin analogue, 111In- pentetreotide (Mallinckrodt Medical B. V., Petten, Holland), revealed all sites of disease detected by routine biochemical and radiologic methods. After six cycles of chemotherapy with doxorubicin, cyclophosphamide, and etoposide, there was almost complete clearance of the metastatic disease. 111In-pentetreotide scintigraphy revealed uptake consistent with small areas of residual disease in the liver, the abdomen (in mesenteric lymph nodes), and posterior thorax (in a rib). The primary gastrinoma present before the onset of the anaplastic small cell cancer showed no evidence of response to the treatment. The patient remained well for 1 year and then relapsed with brain, lung, liver, and skeletal metastases. Despite an initial response to salvage radiotherapy and chemotherapy with carboplatin and dacarbazine, the patient died 6 months later.

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Public economics covers both topics in welfare economic of social (as opposed to private) interest and aspects of public finance. This chapter considers the application of two methods of social economic evaluation of tourist developments, namely, social cost-benefit analysis and economic impact analysis. The role of social cost-benefit analysis in the assessment of tourism is illustrated by its application to the evaluation of inbound tourism. This is followed by a discussion of taxes on tourism and subsidies to promote it. The principle focus is on hotel room taxes. The analysis of taxes on tourism involves both public finance and welfare economics issues. The scope for and desirability of applying the user-pays principle to tourism is then examined.

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Background: Charcot Neuro-Arthropathy (CN) is one of the more devastating complications of diabetes. To the best of the authors' knowledge, it appears that no clinical tools based on a systematic review of existing literature have been developed to manage acute CN. Thus, the aim of this paper was to systematically review existing literature and develop an evidence-based clinical pathway for the assessment, diagnosis and management of acute CN in patients with diabetes. Methods: Electronic databases (Medline, PubMed, CINAHL, Embase and Cochrane Library), reference lists, and relevant key websites were systematically searched for literature discussing the assessment, diagnosis and/or management of acute CN published between 2002-2012. At least two independent investigators then quality rated and graded the evidence of each included paper. Consistent recommendations emanating from the included papers were then fashioned in a clinical pathway. Results: The systematic search identified 267 manuscripts, of which 117 (44%) met the inclusion criteria for this study. Most manuscripts discussing the assessment, diagnosis and/or management of acute CN constituted level IV (case series) or EO (expert opinion) evidence. The included literature was used to develop an evidence-based clinical pathway for the assessment, investigations, diagnosis and management of acute CN. Conclusions: This research has assisted in developing a comprehensive, evidence-based clinical pathway to promote consistent and optimal practice in the assessment, diagnosis and management of acute CN. The pathway aims to support health professionals in making early diagnosis and providing appropriate immediate management of acute CN, ultimately reducing its associated complications such as amputations and hospitalisations.

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BACKGROUND Expectations held by health professionals and their patients are likely to affect treatment choices in subacute inpatient rehabilitation settings for older adults. There is a scarcity of empirical evidence evaluating whether health professionals expectations of the quality of their patients' future health states are accurate. METHODS A prospective longitudinal cohort investigation was implemented to examine agreement (kappa coefficients, exact agreement, limits-of-agreement, and intraclass-correlation coefficients) between physiotherapists' (n = 23) prediction of patients' discharge health-related quality of life (reported on the EQ-5D-3L) and the actual health-related quality of life self-reported by patients (n = 272) at their discharge assessment (using the EQ-5D-3L). The mini-mental state examination was used as an indicator of patients' cognitive ability. RESULTS Overall, 232 (85%) patients had all assessment data completed and were included in analysis. Kappa coefficients (exact agreement) ranged between 0.37-0.57 (58%-83%) across EQ-5D-3L domains in the lower cognition group and 0.53-0.68 (81%-85%) in the better cognition group. CONCLUSIONS Physiotherapists in this subacute rehabilitation setting predicted their patients' discharge health-related quality of life with substantial accuracy. Physiotherapists are likely able to provide their patients with sound information regarding potential recovery and health-related quality of life on discharge. The prediction accuracy was higher among patients with better cognition than patients with poorer cognition.

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Background: Health policy, guidelines, and standards advocate giving patients comprehensive information and facilitating their involvement in health-related decision-making. Routine assessment of patient reports of these processes is needed. Our objective was to examine decision-making processes, specifically information provision and consumer involvement in decision-making, for nine pregnancy, labour, and birth procedures, as reported by maternity care consumers in Queensland, Australia. Methods: Participants were women who had a live birth in Queensland in a specified time period and were not found to have had a baby that died since birth, who completed the extended Having a Baby in Queensland Survey, 2010 about their maternity care experiences, and who reported at least one of the nine procedures of interest. For each procedure, women answered two questions that measured perceived (i) receipt of information about the benefits and risks of the procedure and (ii) role in decision-making about the procedure. Results: In all, 3,542 eligible women (34.2%) completed the survey. Between 4% (for pre-labour caesarean section) and 60% (for vaginal examination) of women reported not being informed of the benefits and risks of the procedure they experienced. Between 2% (epidural) and 34% (episiotomy) of women reported being unconsulted in decision-making. Over one quarter (26%) of the women who experienced episiotomy reported being neither informed nor consulted. Conclusions: There is an urgent need for interventions that facilitate information provision and consumer involvement in decision-making about several perinatal procedures, especially those performed within the time-limited intrapartum care episode.

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The Climate Commission recently outlined the trend of major extreme weather events in different regions of Australia, including heatwaves, floods, droughts, bushfires, cyclones and storms. These events already impose an enormous health and financial burden onto society and are projected to occur more frequently and intensely. Unless we act now, further financial losses and increasing health burdens seem inevitable. We seek to highlight the major areas for interdisciplinary investigation, identify barriers and formulate response strategies.

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Aims Corneal nerve morphology and corneal sensation threshold have recently been explored as potential surrogate markers for the evaluation of diabetic neuropathy. We present the baseline findings of the ‘Longitudinal Assessment of Neuropathy in type 1 Diabetes using novel ophthalmic Markers’(LANDMark) study. Methods The LANDMark study is a 4-year, two-site, natural history study of three participant groups: type 1 diabetes with neuropathy (T1W), type 1 diabetes without neuropathy (T1WO) and control participants without diabetes or neuropathy. All participants undergo a detailed annual assessment of neuropathy including corneal nerve parameters measured using corneal confocal microscopy and corneal sensitivity measured using non-contact corneal aesthesiometry. Results 76 T1W, 166 T1WO and 154 control participants were enrolled into the study. Corneal sensation threshold (mbars) was significantly higher (i.e. sensitivity was lower) in T1W (1.0 ± 1.1) than T1WO (0.7 ± 0.7) and controls (0.6 ± 0.4) (p < 0.001), with no difference between T1WO and controls. Corneal nerve fibre length was lower in T1W (14.0 ± 6.4 mm/mm2) compared to T1WO (19.1 ± 5.8 mm/mm2) and controls (23.2 ± 6.3 mm/mm2) (p < 0.001). Corneal nerve fibre length was lower in T1WO compared to controls. Conclusions The LANDMark baseline findings confirm a reduction in corneal sensitivity only in Type 1 patients with neuropathy. However, corneal nerve fibre length is reduced even in Type 1 patients without neuropathy with an even greater deficit in Type 1 patients with neuropathy.

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The contact lens industry has evolved and now provides many choices, including continuous wear, overnight orthokeratology, frequent-replacement lenses, daily-disposable lenses, and many alternatives in systems of care and maintenance. Epidemiologic studies to date have shown that how a lens is worn, particularly if worn overnight, can increase the risk of microbial keratitis. However, the risk of silicone hydrogel contact lenses worn on a continuous-wear basis has been evaluated only recently. This article summarizes the recent research data on extended-wear silicone hydrogel lenses and discusses the challenges of early evaluations of silicone hydrogel lens safety. Finally, the relevance of this information is discussed to practitioners and contact lens wearers making choices about the risks and benefits of different products and how they are used.

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Objectives: To investigate the relationship between two assessments to quantify delayed onset muscle soreness [DOMS]: visual analog scale [VAS] and pressure pain threshold [PPT]. Methods: Thirty-one healthy young men [25.8 ± 5.5 years] performed 10 sets of six maximal eccentric contractions of the elbow flexors with their non-dominant arm. Before and one to four days after the exercise, muscle pain perceived upon palpation of the biceps brachii at three sites [5, 9 and 13 cm above the elbow crease] was assessed by VAS with a 100 mm line [0 = no pain, 100 = extremely painful], and PPT of the same sites was determined by an algometer. Changes in VAS and PPT over time were compared amongst three sites by a two-way repeated measures analysis of variance, and the relationship between VAS and PPT was analyzed using a Pearson product-moment correlation. Results: The VAS increased one to four days after exercise and peaked two days post-exercise, while the PPT decreased most one day post-exercise and remained below baseline for four days following exercise [p < 0.05]. No significant difference among the three sites was found for VAS [p = 0.62] or PPT [p = 0.45]. The magnitude of change in VAS did not significantly correlate with that of PPT [r = −0.20, p = 0.28]. Conclusion: These results suggest that the level of muscle pain is not region-specific, at least among the three sites investigated in the study, and VAS and PPT provide different information about DOMS, indicating that VAS and PPT represent different aspects of pain.