Latent degradation indicators estimation and prediction : a Monte Carlo approach

Asset health inspections can produce two types of indicators: (1) direct indicators (e.g. the thickness of a brake pad, and the crack depth on a gear) which directly relate to a failure mechanism; and (2) indirect indicators (e.g. the indicators extracted from vibration signals and oil analysis data) which can only partially reveal a failure mechanism. While direct indicators enable more precise references to asset health condition, they are often more difficult to obtain than indirect indicators. The state space model provides an efficient approach to estimating direct indicators by using indirect indicators. However, existing state space models to estimate direct indicators largely depend on assumptions such as, discrete time, discrete state, linearity, and Gaussianity. The discrete time assumption requires fixed inspection intervals. The discrete state assumption entails discretising continuous degradation indicators, which often introduces additional errors. The linear and Gaussian assumptions are not consistent with nonlinear and irreversible degradation processes in most engineering assets. This paper proposes a state space model without these assumptions. Monte Carlo-based algorithms are developed to estimate the model parameters and the remaining useful life. These algorithms are evaluated for performance using numerical simulations through MATLAB. The result shows that both the parameters and the remaining useful life are estimated accurately. Finally, the new state space model is used to process vibration and crack depth data from an accelerated test of a gearbox. During this application, the new state space model shows a better fitness result than the state space model with linear and Gaussian assumption.

The cradle of whose civilisation? : reading the Theseus myth in Riordan’s Percy Jackson and Ottley’s Requiem for a Beast

This paper considers the functions of Greek mythology in general and the “Theseus and the Minotaur” myth in particular in two contemporary texts of adolescent masculinity: Rick Riordan’s Percy Jackson series (2005-2009) and Matt Ottley’s Requiem for a Beast: A Work for Image, Word and Music (2007). These texts reveal the ongoing flexibility of mythic texts to be pressed into service of shoring up or challenging currently hegemonic ideologies of self and state. Both Riordan and Ottley make a variety of intertextual uses of classical hero plots in order to facilitate their own narrative explorations of contemporary adolescent men ‘coming of age’. These intertextual gestures might easily be read as gestures of alignment with narrative traditions and authority which simultaneously confer “legitimacy” on Riordan and Ottley, on their texts, and by extension, on their readers. However, when read in juxtaposition, it is clear that Riordan and Ottley may use classical mythology to articulate similarly gendered adolescence, they produce divergent visions of nationed adolescence.

Play in the city : Parkour and architecture

The ability to play freely in our cities is essential for sustainable wellbeing. When integrated successfully into our cities, Urban Play performs an important role; physically, socially and culturally contributing to the image of the city. While Urban Play is essential, it also finds itself in conflict with the city. Under modernist urban approaches play activities have become progressively segregated from the urban context through a tripartite of design, procurement and management practices. Despite these restrictions, emergent underground play forms overcome the isolation of play within urban space. One of these activities (parkour) is used as an evocative case study to reveal the hidden urban terrains of desire and fear as it re-interprets the fabric of the city, eliciting practice based discussions about procurement, design and management practice along its route.

Spectroscopic and structural characterization of pascoite

Pascoite mineral having yellow-orange colour of Colorado, USA origin has been characterized by EPR, optical and NIR spectroscopy. The colour dark red-orange to yellow-orange colour of the pascoite indicates that the mineral contain mixed valency of vanadium. The optical spectrum exhibits a number of electronic bands due to presence of VO(II) ions in the mineral. From EPR studies, the parameters of g, A are evaluated and the data confirm that the ion is in distorted octahedron. Optical absorption studies reveal that two sets of VO(II) is in distorted octahedron. The bands in NIR spectra are due to the overtones and combinations of water molecules.

High performance additive manufactured scaffolds for bone tissue engineering application

This study demonstrates the feasibility of additive manufactured poly(3-caprolactone)/silanized tricalcium phosphate (PCL/TCP(Si)) scaffolds coated with carbonated hydroxyapatite (CHA)-gelatin composite for bone tissue engineering. In order to reinforce PCL/TCP scaffolds to match the mechanical properties of cancellous bone, TCP has been modified with 3-glycidoxypropyl trimethoxysilane (GPTMS) and incorporated into PCL to synthesize a PCL/TCP(Si) composite. The successful modification is confirmed by X-ray photoelectron spectroscopy (XPS) and Fourier transform infrared spectroscopy (FTIR) analysis. Additive manufactured PCL/TCP(Si) scaffolds have been fabricated using a screw extrusion system (SES). Compression testing demonstrates that both the compressive modulus and compressive yield strength of the developed PCL/TCP(Si) scaffolds fall within the lower ranges of mechanical properties for cancellous bone, with a compressive modulus and compressive yield strength of 6.0 times and 2.3 times of those of PCL/TCP scaffolds, respectively. To enhance the osteoconductive property of the developed PCL/TCP(Si) scaffolds, a CHA-gelatin composite has been coated onto the scaffolds via a biomimetic co-precipitation process, which is verified by using scanning electron microscopy (SEM) and XPS. Confocal laser microscopy and SEM images reveal a most uniform distribution of porcine bone marrow stromal cells (BMSCs) and cellsheet accumulation on the CHA-gelatin composite coated PCL/TCP(Si) scaffolds. The proliferation rate of BMSCs on the CHA-gelatin composite coated PCL/TCP(Si) scaffolds is 2.0 and 1.4 times higher compared to PCL/TCP(Si) and CHA coated PCL/TCP(Si) scaffolds, respectively, by day 10. Furthermore, the reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) and western blot analyses reveal that CHA-gelatin composite coated PCL/TCP(Si) scaffolds stimulate osteogenic differentiation of BMSCs the most compared to the other scaffolds. In vitro results of SEM, confocal microscopy and proliferation rate also show that there is no detrimental effect of GPTMS modification on biocompatibility of the scaffolds.

What the experts think : fast bowling expertise acquisition and talent development

For applied sport scientists charged with developing talented performers an essential requirement is to identify components contributing to the development and maintenance of expertise. Previous qualitative analysis has revealed several psychological (e.g., mental focus, goal-setting and selfevaluation), socio-cultural (e.g. community and family support, cultural influence), physical (e.g., strength, height) and environmental (e.g., access to facilities and climate) constraints on successful Olympian development (Abbott et al., 2005). Open-ended interviews with expert athletes and/or expert coaches have been used to reveal competencies of elite performers to derive factors associated with success (Durand-Bush et al., 2002). However, the influence of these factors is likely to be sport-specific due to different task constraints and the changing nature of the performer-environment relationship through practice, coaching and competing (Vaeyens et al., 2008). So far, only one study on expertise acquisition in cricket has been undertaken. Weissensteiner, et al. (2009) found that development of expertise in cricket batting in Australia may be facilitated by early unstructured play (i.e. ‘backyard cricket’), a wide range of sport experience during development, and early exposure to playing with seniors.

The Relative Efficiency of International, Domestic, and Budget Airlines : Nonparametric Evidence

This study determines whether the inclusion of low-cost airlines in a dataset of international and domestic airlines has an impact on the efficiency scores of so-called ‘prestigious’ purportedly ‘efficient’ airlines. This is because while many airline studies concern efficiency, none has truly included a combination of international, domestic and budget airlines. The present study employs the nonparametric technique of data envelopment analysis (DEA) to investigate the technical efficiency of 53 airlines in 2006. The findings reveal that the majority of budget airlines are efficient relative to their more prestigious counterparts. Moreover, most airlines identified as inefficient are so largely because of the overutilization of non-flight assets.

Productivity, Technical and Efficiency Change in Singapore’s Services Sector, 2005 to 2008

The current study was motivated by statements made by the Economic Strategies Committee that Singapore’s recent productivity levels in services were well below countries such as the US, Japan and Hong Kong. Massive employment of foreign workers was cited as the reason for poor productivity levels. To shed more light on Singapore’s falling productivity, a nonparametric Malmquist productivity index was employed which provides measures of productivity change, technical change and efficiency change. The findings reveal that growth in total factor productivity was attributed to technical change with no improvement in efficiency change. Such results suggest that gains from TFP were input-driven rather than from a ‘best-practice’ approach such as improvements in operations or better resource allocation.

An analysis of the nature and effectiveness of corporate governance in smaller listed Australian companies

The objective of this thesis is to investigate the corporate governance attributes of smaller listed Australian firms. This study is motivated by evidence that these firms are associated with more regulatory concerns, the introduction of ASX Corporate Governance Recommendations in 2004, and a paucity of research to guide regulators and stakeholders of smaller firms. While there is an extensive body of literature examining the effectiveness of corporate governance, the literature principally focuses on larger companies, resulting in a deficiency in the understanding of the nature and effectiveness of corporate governance in smaller firms. Based on a review of agency theory literature, a theoretical model is developed that posits that agency costs are mitigated by internal governance mechanisms and transparency. The model includes external governance factors but in many smaller firms these factors are potentially absent, increasing the reliance on the internal governance mechanisms of the firm. Based on the model, the observed greater regulatory intervention in smaller companies may be due to sub-optimal internal governance practices. Accordingly, this study addresses four broad research questions (RQs). First, what is the extent and nature of the ASX Recommendations that have been adopted by smaller firms (RQ1)? Second, what firm characteristics explain differences in the recommendations adopted by smaller listed firms (RQ2), and third, what firm characteristics explain changes in the governance of smaller firms over time (RQ3)? Fourth, how effective are the corporate governance attributes of smaller firms (RQ4)? Six hypotheses are developed to address the RQs. The first two hypotheses explore the extent and nature of corporate governance, while the remaining hypotheses evaluate its effectiveness. A time-series, cross-sectional approach is used to evaluate the effectiveness of governance. Three models, based on individual governance attributes, an index of six items derived from the literature, and an index based on the full list of ASX Recommendations, are developed and tested using a sample of 298 smaller firms with annual observations over a five-year period (2002-2006) before and after the introduction of the ASX Recommendations in 2004. With respect to (RQ1) the results reveal that the overall adoption of the recommendations increased from 66 per cent in 2004 to 74 per cent in 2006. Interestingly, the adoption rate for recommendations regarding the structure of the board and formation of committees is significantly lower than the rates for other categories of recommendations. With respect to (RQ2) the results reveal that variations in rates of adoption are explained by key firm differences including, firm size, profitability, board size, audit quality, and ownership dispersion, while the results for (RQ3) were inconclusive. With respect to (RQ4), the results provide support for the association between better governance and superior accounting-based performance. In particular, the results highlight the importance of the independence of both the board and audit committee chairs, and of greater accounting-based expertise on the audit committee. In contrast, while there is little evidence that a majority independent board is associated with superior outcomes, there is evidence linking board independence with adverse audit opinion outcomes. These results suggest that board and chair independence are substitutes; in the presence of an independent chair a majority independent board may be an unnecessary and costly investment for smaller firms. The findings make several important contributions. First, the findings contribute to the literature by providing evidence on the extent, nature and effectiveness of governance in smaller firms. The findings also contribute to the policy debate regarding future development of Australia’s corporate governance code. The findings regarding board and chair independence, and audit committee characteristics, suggest that policy-makers could consider providing additional guidance for smaller companies. In general, the findings offer support for the “if not, why not?” approach of the ASX, rather than a prescriptive rules-based approach.

Natural convection and heat transfer in attics subject to periodic thermal forcing

The heat transfer through the attics of buildings under realistic thermal forcing has been considered in this study. A periodic temperature boundary condition is applied on the sloping walls of the attic to show the basic flow features in the attic space over diurnal cycles. The numerical results reveal that, during the daytime heating stage, the flow in the attic space is stratified; whereas at the night-time cooling stage, the flow becomes unstable. A symmetrical solution is seen for relatively low Rayleigh numbers. However, as the Ra gradually increases, a transition occurs at a critical value of Ra. Above this critical value, an asymmetrical solution exhibiting a pitchfork bifurcation arises at the night-time. It is also found that the calculated heat transfer rate at the night-time cooling stage is much higher than that during the daytime heating stage.

Natural convection in a triangular enclosure subject to periodic thermal forcing

The effects of periodic thermal forcing on the flow field and heat transfer through an attic space are examined numerically in this paper. We consider the case with a fixed aspect ratio of 0.5 and a fixed Grashof number of 1.33×106. The numerical results reveal that, during the daytime, the flow is stratified; whereas at the night-time, the flow becomes unstable. A number of regular plumes and vortices are observed in the contours of isotherms and stream functions respectively. Moreover, the flow appears to be symmetric during the daytime, and becomes asymmetric at the night-time. It is also found that the flow is weaker during the daytime than that at the night-time in the present case, and the calculated heat transfer rate at the night-time is approximately three times greater than the heat transfer rate during the daytime.

A Bayesian model predicts the response of axons to molecular gradients

Axon guidance by molecular gradients plays a crucial role in wiring up the nervous system. However, the mechanisms axons use to detect gradients are largely unknown. We first develop a Bayesian “ideal observer” analysis of gradient detection by axons, based on the hypothesis that a principal constraint on gradient detection is intrinsic receptor binding noise. Second, from this model, we derive an equation predicting how the degree of response of an axon to a gradient should vary with gradient steepness and absolute concentration. Third, we confirm this prediction quantitatively by performing the first systematic experimental analysis of how axonal response varies with both these quantities. These experiments demonstrate a degree of sensitivity much higher than previously reported for any chemotacting system. Together, these results reveal both the quantitative constraints that must be satisfied for effective axonal guidance and the computational principles that may be used by the underlying signal transduction pathways, and allow predictions for the degree of response of axons to gradients in a wide variety of in vivo and in vitro settings.

Crisis communication under transformative change : the emergent context and roles of primary and secondary organisations

In an era of complex challenges that draw sustained media attention and entangle multiple organisational actors, this thesis addresses the gap between current trends in society and business, and existing scholarship in public relations and crisis communication. By responding to calls from crisis communication researchers to develop theory (Coombs, 2006a), to examine the interdependencies of crises (Seeger, Sellnow, & Ulmer, 1998), and to consider variation in crisis response (Seeger, 2002), this thesis contributes to theory development in crisis communication and public relations. Through transformative change, this thesis extends existing scholarship built on a preservation or conservation logic where public relations is used to maintain stability by incrementally responding to changes in an organisation‘s environment (Cutlip, Center, & Broom, 2006; Everett, 2001; Grunig, 2000; Spicer, 1997). Based on the opportunity to contribute to ongoing theoretical development in the literature, the overall research problem guiding this thesis asks: How does transformative change during crisis influence corporate actors’ communication? This thesis adopts punctuated equilibrium theory, which describes change as alternating between long periods of stability and short periods of revolutionary or transformative change (Gersick, 1991; Romanelli & Tushman, 1994; Siggelkow, 2002; Tushman, Newman, & Romanelli, 1986; Tushman & Romanelli, 1985). As a theory for change, punctuated equilibrium provides an opportunity to examine public relations and transformative change, building on scholarship that is based primarily on incremental change. Further, existing scholarship in public relations and crisis communication focuses on the actions of single organisations in situational or short-term crisis events. Punctuated equilibrium theory enables the study of multiple crises and multiple organisational responses during transformative change. In doing so, punctuated equilibrium theory provides a framework to explain both the context for transformative change and actions or strategies enacted by organisations during transformative change (Tushman, Newman, & Romanelli, 1986; Tushman & Romanelli, 1985; Tushman, Virany, & Romanelli, 1986). The connections between context and action inform the research questions that guide this thesis: RQ1: What symbolic and substantive strategies persist and change as crises develop from situational events to transformative and multiple linked events? RQ2: What features of the crisis context influence changes in symbolic and substantive strategies? To shed light on these research questions, the thesis adopts a qualitative approach guided by process theory and methods to explicate the events, sequences and activities that were essential to change (Pettigrew, 1992; Van de Ven, 1992). Specifically, the thesis draws on an alternative template strategy (Langley, 1999) that provides several alternative interpretations of the same events (Allison, 1971; Allison & Zelikow, 1999). Following Allison (1971) and Allison and Zelikow (1999), this thesis uses three alternative templates of crisis or strategic response typologies to construct three narratives using media articles and organisational documents. The narratives are compared to identify and draw out different patterns of crisis communication strategies that operate within different crisis contexts. The thesis is based on the crisis events that affected three organisations within the pharmaceutical industry for four years. The primary organisation is Merck, as its product recall crisis triggered transformative change affecting, in different ways, the secondary organisations of Pfizer and Novartis. Three narratives are presented based on the crisis or strategic response typologies of Coombs (2006b), Allen and Caillouet (1994), and Oliver (1991). The findings of this thesis reveal different stories about crisis communication under transformative change. By zooming in to a micro perspective (Nicolini, 2009) to focus on the crisis communication and actions of a single organisation and zooming out to a macro perspective (Nicolini, 2009) to consider multiple organisations, new insights about crisis communication, change and the relationships among multiple organisations are revealed at context and action levels. At the context level, each subsequent narrative demonstrates greater connections among multiple corporate actors. By zooming out from Coombs‘ (2006b) focus on single organisations to consider Allen and Caillouet‘s (1994) integration of the web of corporate actors, the thesis demonstrates how corporate actors add accountability pressures to the primary organisation. Next, by zooming further out to the macro perspective by considering Oliver‘s (1991) strategic responses to institutional processes, the thesis reveals a greater range of corporate actors that are caught up in the process of transformative change and accounts for their varying levels of agency over their environment. By zooming in to a micro perspective and out to a macro perspective (Nicolini, 2009) across alternative templates, the thesis sheds light on sequences, events, and actions of primary and secondary organisations. Although the primary organisation remains the focus of sustained media attention across the four-year time frame, the secondary organisations, even when one faced a similar starting situation to the primary organisation, were buffered by the process of transformative change. This understanding of crisis contexts in transforming environments builds on existing knowledge in crisis communication. At the action level, the thesis also reveals different interpretations from each alternative template. Coombs‘ (2006b) narrative shows persistence in the primary organisation‘s crisis or strategic responses over the four-year time frame of the thesis. That is, the primary organisation consistently applies a diminish crisis response. At times, the primary organisation drew on denial responses when corporate actors questioned its legitimacy or actions. To close the crisis, the primary organisation uses a rebuild crisis posture (Coombs, 2006). These finding are replicated in Allen and Caillouet‘s (1994) narrative, noting this template‘s limitation to communication messages only. Oliver‘s (1991) narrative is consistent with Coombs‘ (2006b) but also demonstrated a shift from a strategic response that signals conformity to the environment to one that signals more active resistance to the environment over time. Specifically, the primary organisation‘s initial response demonstrates conformity but these same messages were used some three years later to set new expectations in the environment in order to shape criteria and build acceptance for future organisational decisions. In summary, the findings demonstrate the power of crisis or strategic responses when considered over time and in the context of transformative change. The conclusions of this research contribute to scholarship in the public relations and management literatures. Based on the significance of organisational theory, the primary contribution of the theory relates to the role of interorganisational linkages or legitimacy buffers that form during the punctuation of equilibrium. The network of linkages among the corporate actors are significant also to the crisis communication literature as they form part of the process model of crisis communication under punctuated equilibrium. This model extends existing research that focuses on crisis communication of single organisations to consider the emergent context that incorporates secondary organisations as well as the localised contests of legitimacy and buffers from regulatory authorities. The thesis also provides an empirical base for punctuated equilibrium in public relations and crisis communication, extending Murphy‘s (2000) introduction of the theory to the public relations literature. In doing this, punctuated equilibrium theory reinvigorates theoretical development in crisis communication by extending existing scholarship around incrementalist approaches and demonstrating how public relations works in the context of transformative change. Further research in this area could consider using alternative templates to study transformative change caused by a range of crisis types from natural disasters to product tampering, and to add further insight into the dynamics between primary and secondary organisations. This thesis contributes to practice by providing guidelines for crisis response strategy selection and indicators related to the emergent context for crises under transformative change that will help primary and secondary organisations‘ responses to crises.

Labyrinthine literacies : navigating cultural agency in the arrival and requiem for a beast

The OED reminds us as surely as Ovid that a labyrinth is a “structure consisting of a number of intercommunicating passages arranged in bewildering complexity, through which it is it difficult or impossible to find one’s way without guidance”. Both Shaun Tan’s The Arrival (2006) and Matt Ottley’s Requiem for a Beast: A Work for Image, Word and Music (2007) mark a kind of labyrinthine watershed in Australian children’s literature. Deploying complex, intercommunicating logics of story and literacy, these books make high demands of their reader but also offer guidance for the successful navigation of their stories; for their protagonists as surely as for readers. That the shared logic of navigation in each book is literacy as privileged form of meaning-making is not surprising in the sense that within “a culture deeply invested in myths of individualism and self-sufficiency, it is easy to see why literacy is glorified as an attribute of individual control and achievement” (Williams and Zenger 166). The extent to which these books might be read as exemplifying desired norms of contemporary Australian culture seems to be affirmed by the fact of Tan and Ottley winning the Australian “Picture Book of the Year” prize awarded by the Children’s Book Council of Australia in 2007 and 2008 respectively. However, taking its cue from Ottley’s explicit intertextual use of the myth of Theseus and from Tan’s visual rhetoric of lostness and displacement, this paper reads these texts’ engagement with tropes of “literacy” in order to consider the ways in which norms of gender and culture seemingly circulated within these texts might be undermined by constructions of “nation” itself as a labyrinth that can only partly be negotiated by a literate subject. In doing so, I argue that these picture books, to varying degrees, reveal a perpetuation of the “literacy myth” (Graff 12) as a discourse of safety and agency but simultaneously bear traces of Ariadne’s story, wherein literacy alone is insufficient for safe navigation of the labyrinth of culture.

The genetics of cutaneous melanoma

Although germline mutations in CDKN2A are present in approximately 25% of large multicase melanoma families, germline mutations are much rarer in the smaller melanoma families that make up most individuals reporting a family history of this disease. In addition, only three families worldwide have been reported with germline mutations in a gene other than CDKN2A (i.e., CDK4). Accordingly, current genomewide scans underway at the National Human Genome Research Institute hope to reveal linkage to one or more chromosomal regions, and ultimately lead to the identification of novel genes involved in melanoma predisposition. Both CDKN2A and PTEN have been identified as genes involved in sporadic melanoma development; however, mutations are more common in cell lines than uncultured tumors. A combination of cytogenetic, molecular, and functional studies suggests that additional genes involved in melanoma development are located to chromosomal regions 1p, 6q, 7p, 11q, and possibly also 9p and 10q. With the near completion of the human genome sequencing effort, combined with the advent of high throughput mutation analyses and new techniques including cDNA and tissue microarrays, the identification and characterization of additional genes involved in melanoma pathogenesis seem likely in the near future.