Combining opinions for use in Bayesian networks: A measurement error approach

Bayesian networks (BNs) are graphical probabilistic models used for reasoning under uncertainty. These models are becoming increasing popular in a range of fields including ecology, computational biology, medical diagnosis, and forensics. In most of these cases, the BNs are quantified using information from experts, or from user opinions. An interest therefore lies in the way in which multiple opinions can be represented and used in a BN. This paper proposes the use of a measurement error model to combine opinions for use in the quantification of a BN. The multiple opinions are treated as a realisation of measurement error and the model uses the posterior probabilities ascribed to each node in the BN which are computed from the prior information given by each expert. The proposed model addresses the issues associated with current methods of combining opinions such as the absence of a coherent probability model, the lack of the conditional independence structure of the BN being maintained, and the provision of only a point estimate for the consensus. The proposed model is applied an existing Bayesian Network and performed well when compared to existing methods of combining opinions.

Recent advances in modeling the vulnerability of transportation networks

It is well known that, for major infrastructure networks such as electricity, gas, railway, road, and urban water networks, disruptions at one point have a knock on effect throughout the network. There is an impressive amount of individual research projects examining the vulnerability of critical infrastructure network. However, there is little understanding of the totality of the contribution made by these projects and their interrelationships. This makes their review a difficult process for both new and existing researchers in the field. To address this issue, a two-step literature review process is used, to provide an overview of the vulnerability of the transportation network in terms of four main themes - research objective, transportation mode, disruption scenario and vulnerability indicator –involving the analysis of related articles from 2001 to 2013. Two limitations of existing research are identified: (1) the limited amount of studies relating to multi-layer transportation network vulnerability analysis, and (2) the lack of evaluation methods to explore the relationship between structure vulnerability and dynamical functional vulnerability. In addition to indicating that more attention needs to be paid to these two aspects in future, the analysis provides a new avenue for the discovery of knowledge, as well as an improved understanding of transportation network vulnerability.

Human vs. machine : identification of bat species from their echolocation calls by humans and by artificial neural networks

Automated remote ultrasound detectors allow large amounts of data on bat presence and activity to be collected. Processing of such data involves identifying bat species from their echolocation calls. Automated species identification has the potential to provide more consistent, predictable, and potentially higher levels of accuracy than identification by humans. In contrast, identification by humans permits flexibility and intelligence in identification, as well as the incorporation of features and patterns that may be difficult to quantify. We compared humans with artificial neural networks (ANNs) in their ability to classify short recordings of bat echolocation calls of variable signal to noise ratios; these sequences are typical of those obtained from remote automated recording systems that are often used in large-scale ecological studies. We presented 45 recordings (1–4 calls) produced by known species of bats to ANNs and to 26 human participants with 1 month to 23 years of experience in acoustic identification of bats. Humans correctly classified 86% of recordings to genus and 56% to species; ANNs correctly identified 92% and 62%, respectively. There was no significant difference between the performance of ANNs and that of humans, but ANNs performed better than about 75% of humans. There was little relationship between the experience of the human participants and their classification rate. However, humans with <1 year of experience performed worse than others. Currently, identification of bat echolocation calls by humans is suitable for ecological research, after careful consideration of biases. However, improvements to ANNs and the data that they are trained on may in future increase their performance to beyond those demonstrated by humans.

Evaluation of channel congestion in dedicated short-range communication networks

This thesis presents a novel idea for an adaptive prioritized cross-layer design (APCLD) control algorithm to achieve comprehensive channel congestion control for vehicular safety communication based on DSRC technology. An appropriate evaluation metric and two control parameters have been established. Simulation studies have evaluated the DSRC network performance in different traffic scenario and under different channel conditions. The APCLD algorithm is derived from the results of the simulation analysis.

Bayesian networks for information synthesis in complex systems

This thesis introduces a method of applying Bayesian Networks to combine information from a range of data sources for effective decision support systems. It develops a set of techniques in development, validation, visualisation, and application of Complex Systems models, with a working demonstration in an Australian airport environment. The methods presented here have provided a modelling approach that produces highly flexible, informative and applicable interpretations of a system's behaviour under uncertain conditions. These end-to-end techniques are applied to the development of model based dashboards to support operators and decision makers in the multi-stakeholder airport environment. They provide highly flexible and informative interpretations and confidence in these interpretations of a system's behaviour under uncertain conditions.

MIMO enhanced slotted cooperation in urban vehicular networks

The requirement of isolated relays is one of the prime obstacles in utilizing sequential slotted cooperative protocols for Vehicular Ad-hoc Networks (VANET). Significant research advancement has taken place to improve the diversity multiplexing trade-off (DMT) of cooperative protocols in conventional mobile networks without much attention on vehicular ad-hoc networks. We have extended the concept of sequential slotted amplify and forward (SAF) protocols in the context of urban vehicular ad-hoc networks. Multiple Input Multiple Output (MIMO) reception is used at relaying vehicular nodes to isolate the relays effectively. The proposed approach adds a pragmatic value to the sequential slotted cooperative protocols while achieving attractive performance gains in urban VANETs. We have analysed the DMT bounds and the outage probabilities of the proposed scheme. The results suggest that the proposed scheme can achieve an optimal DMT similar to the DMT upper bound of the sequential SAF. Furthermore, the outage performance of the proposed scheme outperforms the SAF protocol by 2.5 dB at a target outage probability of 10-4.

Multi-objective models and techniques for analysing the absolute capacity of railway networks

Railway capacity determination and expansion are very important topics. In prior research, the competition between different entities such as train services and train types, on different network corridors however have been ignored, poorly modelled, or else assumed to be static. In response, a comprehensive set of multi-objective models have been formulated in this article to perform a trade-off analysis. These models determine the total absolute capacity of railway networks as the most equitable solution according to a clearly defined set of competing objectives. The models also perform a sensitivity analysis of capacity with respect to those competing objectives. The models have been extensively tested on a case study and their significant worth is shown. The models were solved using a variety of techniques however an adaptive E constraint method was shown to be most superior. In order to identify only the best solution, a Simulated Annealing meta-heuristic was implemented and tested. However a linearization technique based upon separable programming was also developed and shown to be superior in terms of solution quality but far less in terms of computational time.

Empirical modelling of the relationship between bus and car speeds on signalised urban networks

Vehicle speed is an important attribute for analysing the utility of a transport mode. The speed relationship between multiple modes of transport is of interest to traffic planners and operators. This paper quantifies the relationship between bus speed and average car speed by integrating Bluetooth data and Transit Signal Priority data from the urban network in Brisbane, Australia. The method proposed in this paper is the first of its kind to relate bus speed and average car speed by integrating multi-source traffic data in a corridor-based method. Three transferable regression models relating not-in-service bus, in-service bus during peak periods, and in-service bus during off-peak periods with average car speed are proposed. The models are cross-validated and the interrelationships are significant.

Capacity determination and expansion models for rail networks

This thesis focused upon the development of improved capacity analysis and capacity planning techniques for railways. A number of innovations were made and were tested on a case study of a real national railway. These techniques can reduce the time required to perform decision making activities that planners and managers need to perform. As all railways need to be expanded to meet increasing demands, the presumption that analytical capacity models can be used to identify how best to improve an existing network at least cost, was fully investigated. Track duplication was the mechanism used to expanding a network's capacity, and two variant capacity expansion models were formulated. Another outcome of this thesis is the development and validation of bi objective models for capacity analysis. These models regulate the competition for track access and perform a trade-off analysis. An opportunity to develop more general mulch-objective approaches was identified.

Oncology service initiatives and research in regional Australia

Objective: This paper reflects on the recent growth of cancer research being conducted through some of Australia’s rural centres. It encompasses work being done across the fields of clinical, translational and health services research. Design: This is a collaborative piece with contributions from rural health researchers, clinical and cancer services staff from several different regions. Conclusion: The past decade has seen an expansion in cancer research in rural and regional Australia driven in part by the recognition that cancer patients in remote areas experience poorer outcomes than their metropolitan counterparts. This work has led to the development of more effective cancer networks and new models of care designed to meet the particular needs of the rural cancer patient. It is hoped that the growth of cancer research in regional centres will, in time, reduce the disparity between rural and urban communities and improve outcomes for cancer patients across both populations.

Service Interface Synthesis in Business Networks

Mismatches between services needing to interoperate have been addressed through the adaptation of structural and behavioural interfaces of services, which in practice incur long lead time through manual, coding effort. We propose a framework, complementary to con- ventional service adaptation, to synthesise service interfaces in the open setting of business networks, allowing consumers to introspect service interfaces and formulate service invocations. The framework also allows evolved service requests, as new features of service capabilities are discov- ered, through interactions with other, similar services. Finally the frame- work fosters reuse of adaptation efforts through normalisation of struc- tural and behavioural interfaces of similar services. This paper provides a first exposition of the service interface synthesis framework, describing patterns containing novel requirements for unilateral service adaptation and detailing the interface synthesis technique. Complex examples of ser- vices drawn from commercial logistic systems are then used to validate the synthesis technique and identify open challenges and future research directions.

The role of innovation intermediaries in collaborative networks of small and medium-sized enterprises

The major challenge of European Union’s agricultural industry is to ensure sustainable supply of quality food that meets the demands of a rapidly growing population, changing dietary patterns, increased competition for land use, and environmental concerns. Investments in research and innovation, which facilitate integration of external knowledge in food chain operations, are crucial to undertaking such challenges. This paper addresses how SMEs successfully innovate within collaborative networks with the assistance of innovation intermediaries. In particular, we explore the roles of innovation intermediaries in knowledge acquisition, knowledge assimilation, knowledge, transformation, and knowledge exploitation in open innovation initiatives from the wine industry through the theoretical lens of absorptive capacity. Based on two case studies from the wine industry, we identified seven key activities performed by innovation intermediaries that complement SMEs’ ability to successfully leverage external sources of knowledge for innovation purposes. These activities are articulation of knowledge needs and innovation capabilities, facilitation of social interactions, establishment of complementary links, implementation of governance structures, conflict management, enhancement of transparency, and mediation of communication. Our in-depth qualitative study of two innovation intermediaries in the wine industry has several important implications that contribute to research and practice.

Tuning the resonance properties of 2D carbon nanotube networks towards a mechanical resonator

The capabilities of the mechanical resonator-based nanosensors in detecting ultra-small mass or force shifts have driven a continuing exploration of the palette of nanomaterials for such application purposes. Based on large-scale molecular dynamics simulations, we have assessed the applicability of a new class of carbon nanomaterials for nanoresonator usage, i.e. the single-wall carbon nanotube (SWNT) network. It is found that SWNT networks inherit excellent mechanical properties from the constituent SWNTs, possessing a high natural frequency. However, although a high quality factor is suggested from the simulation results, it is hard to obtain an unambiguous Q-factor due to the existence of vibration modes in addition to the dominant mode. The nonlinearities resulting from these extra vibration modes are found to exist uniformly under various testing conditions including different initial actuations and temperatures. Further testing shows that these modes can be effectively suppressed through the introduction of axial strain, leading to an extremely high quality factor in the order of 109 estimated from the SWNT network with 2% tensile strain. Additional studies indicate that the carbon rings connecting the SWNTs can also be used to alter the vibrational properties of the resulting network. This study suggests that the SWNT network can be a good candidate for applications as nanoresonators.

Second language social networks and communication-related acculturative stress: The role of interconnectedness

Although a substantial amount of cross-cultural psychology research has investigated acculturative stress in general, little attention has been devoted specifically to communication-related acculturative stress (CRAS). In line with the view that cross-cultural adaptation and second language (L2) learning are social and interpersonal phenomena, the present study examines the hypothesis that migrants’ L2 social network size and interconnectedness predict CRAS. The main idea underlying this hypothesis is that L2 social networks play an important role in fostering social and cultural aspects of communicative competence. Specifically, higher interconnectedness may reflect greater access to unmodified natural cultural representations and L2 communication practices, thus fostering communicative competence through observational learning. As such, structural aspects of migrants’ L2 social networks may be protective against acculturative stress arising from chronic communication difficulties. Results from a study of first generation migrant students (N = 100) support this idea by showing that both inclusiveness and density of the participants’ L2 network account for unique variance in CRAS but not in general acculturative stress. These results support the idea that research on cross-cultural adaptation would benefit from disentangling the various facets of acculturative stress and that the structure of migrants’ L2 network matters for language related outcomes. Finally, this study contributes to an emerging body of work that attempts to integrate cultural/cross-cultural research on acculturation and research on intercultural communication and second language learning.