443 resultados para Railroad safety, Bayesian methods, Accident modification factor, Countermeasure selection


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Queensland, Australia has one of the highest rates of skin cancer in the world. Outdoor workers are regularly exposed to high doses of ultraviolet radiation, and are at increased risk to develop non-melanoma and melanoma skin cancers. In 2010, a health promotion intervention to improve sun protection among outdoor workers in Queensland commenced. The intervention employed a mixed methods approach and a participatory action research framework. Fourteen workplaces were recruited from building and construction, rural and farming, local government, and public sector organisations. Management and workers were engaged in cycles of assessment, reflection and discussion, planning, implementation and reassessing, over a 14-month intervention period. Overall, at least one workplace representative from each workplace (range 1-3) and in depth focus groups were held with a subset of workers (range 3-16) to assess sun safe behaviours pre and post intervention. Workers’ attitudes, beliefs, knowledge and willingness to engage in sun protection differed depending on workplace characteristics and support. A familiar theme among workers spoke of sun safety as being “common sense” and the “workers individual responsibility”. Often there was a discrepancy in the perceptions of the workers, compared to the view of workplace representatives and the workplaces position or policy on sun safety. In larger workplaces, especially Government Departments, workers were more aware and followed sun safe practices compared to smaller workplaces where sun safety was not a high priority. These results indicate that a workplace culture which places high values on safety and polices more broadly may also have a positive effect on sun safety among outdoor workers as well. In addition, the specific characteristics of the workplace and the outdoor work tasks influence workers willingness to engage in sun safety measures.

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Theoretical Background and research questions/hypothesis: Recently, throughout Australasia, humorous appeals have become implemented increasingly in health advertising despite limited evidence regarding the persuasiveness of different types of humour. Of those studies available which have examined the persuasiveness of humorous messages, the type of humour is often not defined so it is unclear what type of humour is being examined. Speck’s (1991) typology includes five types of humour; comic wit, sentimental humour, satire, sentimental comedy, and full comedy. Each type of humour is based on one or more humour generation processes; namely, incongruity-resolution, disparagement humour, and arousal-safety. It has been acknowledged that more research is needed to determine the relative persuasiveness of these different types of humour and to identify those types which may be most effective for health advertising. The current research explored individuals’ thoughts about, and their responses to some different types of, humorous messages addressing the serious health topic of road safety. Methods: A preliminary qualitative, study was conducted involving discussions with licensed drivers (N = 18) regarding their thoughts and feelings about humorous road safety messages in general as well as in response to some (5 in total) pre-existing advertisements. Men (n = 10) and women of younger and older age groups (17-24 or 25+ years) participated in one of six discussions. Participants were recruited from an existing community-based database held by the authors’ Research Centre or were approached directly on the university campus. Ethical approval was gained for the study. Each participant was offered $AUD40. A semi-structured interview schedule guided the discussion (e.g., was it humorous?, would this ad influence you?). Audio-recordings of the discussions were professionally transcribed and the transcripts were analysed using thematic analysis. Results: The findings revealed that, irrespective of age and gender, humour that was clever, incorporated something unexpected and contrasting with the everyday, was a preferred and relevant approach, thus aligning with incongruity-based theories of humour generation and humour types, such as comic wit and satire. As a persuasive function, humorous messages were considered likely to be talked about (and relatively more so than traditional fear-based approaches). Participants also felt that humorous messages would need to be used cautiously as humour that was considered inappropriate and/or associated with serious occurrences, such as a crash, would be unlikely to persuade. Conclusions: The findings highlight some of the potential benefits of using humour, such as increasing the extent to which an advertisement is talked about as well as the types of humour which may be effective in this context. Implications for research and/or practice: While this research has provided important insight, future research which quantitatively assesses the persuasive effects of different types of humorous road safety messages within a larger, representative sample is needed. This current study has highlighted some humorous approaches which may hold persuasive promise in encouraging individuals to adopt safer attitudes and behaviours not only on the road, but in relation to serious health issues more broadly.

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-- The role of traffic safety culture in Australia -- A comparison of drink driving (a success story) and speeding (a work in progress) ―Countermeasure approaches ―Community attitudes, perceptions and behaviors -- Lessons from Australia for the further development of the traffic safety culture concept

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Introduction This study reports on the application of the Manchester Driver Behaviour Questionnaire (DBQ) to examine the self-reported driving behaviours (e.g., speeding, errors & aggressive manoeuvres) and predict crash involvement among a sample of general Queensland motorists. Material and Methods Surveys were completed by 249 general motorists on-line or via a pen-and-paper format. Results A factor analysis revealed a three factor solution for the DBQ which was consistent with previous Australian-based research. It accounted for 40.5% of the total variance, although some cross-loadings were observed on nine of the twenty items. The internal reliability of the DBQ was satisfactory. However, multivariate analysis using the DBQ revealed little predictive ability of the tool to predict crash involvement or demerit point loss e.g. violation notices. Rather, exposure to the road was found to be predictive of crashes, although speeding did make a small contribution to those who recently received a violation notice. Conclusions Taken together, the findings contribute to a growing body of research that raises questions about the predictive ability of the most widely used driving assessment tool globally. Ongoing research (which also includes official crash and offence outcomes) is required to better understand the actual contribution that the DBQ can make to understanding and improving road safety. Future research should also aim to confirm whether this lack of predictive efficacy originates from broader issues inherent within self-report data (e.g., memory recall problems) or issues underpinning the conceptualisation of the scale.

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The need to address on-road motorcycle safety in Australia is important due to the disproportionately high percentage of riders and pillions killed and injured each year. One approach to preventing motorcycle-related injury is through training and education. However, motorcycle rider training lacks empirical support as an effective road safety countermeasure to reduce crash involvement. Previous reviews have highlighted that risk-taking is a contributing factor in many motorcycle crashes, rather than merely a lack of vehicle-control skills (Haworth & Mulvihill, 2005; Jonah, Dawson & Bragg, 1982; Watson et al, 1996). Hence, though the basic vehicle-handling skills and knowledge of road rules that are taught in most traditional motorcycle licence training programs may be seen as an essential condition of safe riding, they do not appear to be sufficient in terms of crash reduction. With this in mind there is considerable scope for the improvement of program focus and content for rider training and education. This program of research examined an existing traditional pre-licence motorcycle rider training program and formatively evaluated the addition of a new classroom-based module to address risky riding; the Three Steps to Safer Riding program. The pilot program was delivered in the real world context of the Q-Ride motorcycle licensing system in the state of Queensland, Australia. Three studies were conducted as part of the program of research: Study 1, a qualitative investigation of delivery practices and student learning needs in an existing rider training course; Study 2, an investigation of the extent to which an existing motorcycle rider training course addressed risky riding attitudes and motives; and Study 3, a formative evaluation of the new program. A literature review as well as the investigation of learning needs for motorcyclists in Study 1 aimed to inform the initial planning and development of the Three Steps to Safer Riding program. Findings from Study 1 suggested that the training delivery protocols used by the industry partner training organisation were consistent with a learner-centred approach and largely met the learning needs of trainee riders. However, it also found that information from the course needs to be reinforced by on-road experiences for some riders once licensed and that personal meaning for training information was not fully gained until some riding experience had been obtained. While this research informed the planning and development of the new program, a project team of academics and industry experts were responsible for the formulation of the final program. Study 2 and Study 3 were conducted for the purpose of formative evaluation and program refinement. Study 2 served primarily as a trial to test research protocols and data collection methods with the industry partner organisation and, importantly, also served to gather comparison data for the pilot program which was implemented with the same rider training organisation. Findings from Study 2 suggested that the existing training program of the partner organisation generally had a positive (albeit small) effect on safety in terms of influencing attitudes to risk taking, the propensity for thrill seeking, and intentions to engage in future risky riding. However, maintenance of these effects over time and the effects on riding behaviour remain unclear due to a low response rate upon follow-up 24 months after licensing. Study 3 was a formative evaluation of the new pilot program to establish program effects and possible areas for improvement. Study 3a examined the short term effects of the intervention pilot on psychosocial factors underpinning risky riding compared to the effects of the standard traditional training program (examined in Study 2). It showed that the course which included the Three Steps to Safer Riding program elicited significantly greater positive attitude change towards road safety than the existing standard licensing course. This effect was found immediately following training, and mean scores for attitudes towards safety were also maintained at the 12 month follow-up. The pilot program also had an immediate effect on other key variables such as risky riding intentions and the propensity for thrill seeking, although not significantly greater than the traditional standard training. A low response rate at the 12 month follow-up unfortunately prevented any firm conclusions being drawn regarding the impact of the pilot program on self-reported risky riding once licensed. Study 3a further showed that the use of intermediate outcomes such as self-reported attitudes and intentions for evaluation purposes provides insights into the mechanisms underpinning risky riding that can be changed by education and training. A multifaceted process evaluation conducted in Study 3b confirmed that the intervention pilot was largely delivered as designed, with course participants also rating most aspects of training delivery highly. The complete program of research contributed to the overall body of knowledge relating to motorcycle rider training, with some potential implications for policy in the area of motorcycle rider licensing. A key finding of the research was that psychosocial influences on risky riding can be shaped by structured education that focuses on awareness raising at a personal level and provides strategies to manage future riding situations. However, the formative evaluation was mainly designed to identify areas of improvement for the Three Steps to Safer Riding program and found several areas of potential refinement to improve future efficacy of the program. This included aspects of program content, program delivery, resource development, and measurement tools. The planned future follow-up of program participants' official crash and traffic offence records over time may lend further support for the application of the program within licensing systems. The findings reported in this thesis offer an initial indication that the Three Steps to Safer Riding is a useful resource to accompany skills-based training programs.

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Determining what consequences are likely to serve as effective punishment for any given behaviour is a complex task. This chapter focuses specifically on illegal road user behaviours and the mechanisms used to punish and deter them. Traffic law enforcement has traditionally used the threat and/or receipt of legal sanctions and penalties to deter illegal and risky behaviours. This process represents the use of positive punishment, one of the key behaviour modification mechanisms. Behaviour modification principles describe four types of reinforcers: positive and negative punishments and positive and negative reinforcements. The terms ‘positive’ and ‘negative’ are not used in an evaluative sense here. Rather, they represent the presence (positive) or absence (negative) of stimuli to promote behaviour change. Punishments aim to inhibit behaviour and reinforcements aim to encourage it. This chapter describes a variety of punishments and reinforcements that have been and could be used to modify illegal road user behaviours. In doing so, it draws on several theoretical perspectives that have defined behavioural reinforcement and punishment in different ways. Historically, the main theoretical approach used to deter risky road use has been classical deterrence theory which has focussed on the perceived certainty, severity and swiftness of penalties. Stafford and Warr (1993) extended the traditional deterrence principles to include the positive reinforcement concept of punishment avoidance. Evidence of the association between punishment avoidance experiences and behaviour has been established for a number of risky road user behaviours including drink driving, unlicensed driving, and speeding. We chose a novel way of assessing punishment avoidance by specifying two sub-constructs (detection evasion and punishment evasion). Another theorist, Akers, described the idea of competing reinforcers, termed differential reinforcement, within social learning theory (1977). Differential reinforcement describes a balance of reinforcements and punishments as influential on behaviour. This chapter describes comprehensive way of conceptualising a broad range of reinforcement and punishment concepts, consistent with Akers’ differential reinforcement concept, within a behaviour modification framework that incorporates deterrence principles. The efficacy of three theoretical perspectives to explain self-reported speeding among a sample of 833 Australian car drivers was examined. Results demonstrated that a broad range of variables predicted speeding including personal experiences of evading detection and punishment for speeding, intrinsic sensations, practical benefits expected from speeding, and an absence of punishing effects from being caught. Not surprisingly, being younger was also significantly related to more frequent speeding, although in a regression analysis, gender did not retain a significant influence once all punishment and reinforcement variables were entered. The implications for speed management, as well as road user behaviour modification more generally, are discussed in light of these findings. Overall, the findings reported in this chapter suggest that a more comprehensive approach is required to manage the behaviour of road users which does not rely solely on traditional legal penalties and sanctions.

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Background In China, as in many developing countries, rapid increases in car ownership and new drivers have been coupled with a large trauma burden. The World Health Organization has identified key risk factors including speeding, drink-driving, helmet and restraint non-use, overloaded vehicles, and fatigued-driving in many rapidly motorising countries, including China. Levels of awareness of these risk factors among road users are not well understood. Although research identifies speeding as the major factor contributing to road crashes in China, there appears to be widespread acceptance of it among the broader community. Purpose To assess self-reported speeding and awareness of crash risk factors among Chinese drivers in Beijing. Methods Car drivers (n=299) were recruited from car washing locations and car parks to complete an anonymous questionnaire. Perceptions of the relative risk of drink-driving, fatigued-driving and speeding, and attitudes towards speeding and self-reported driving speeds were assessed. Results Overall, driving speeds of >10km/hr above posted limits on two road types (60 and 80 km/hour zones) were reported by more than one third of drivers. High-range speeding (i.e., >30 km/hour in a 60 km/hour zone and >40 km/hour in an 80 km/hour zone) was reported by approximately 5% of the sample. Attitudinal measures indicated that approximately three quarters of drivers reported attitudes that were not supportive of speeding. Drink-driving was identified as the most risky behaviour; 18% reported the perception that drink-driving had the same level of danger as speeding and 82% reported it as more dangerous. For fatigued-driving, 1% reported the perception that it was not as dangerous as speeding; 27.4% reported it as the same level and 71.6% perceived it as more dangerous. Conclusion Driving speeds well above posted speed limits were commonly reported by drivers. Speeding was rated as the least dangerous on-road behaviour, compared to drink-driving and fatigued-driving. One third of drivers reported regularly engaging in speeds at least 10km/hr above posted limits, despite speeding being the major reported contributor to crashes. Greater awareness of the risks associated with speeding is needed to help reduce the road trauma burden in China and promote greater speed limit compliance.

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Objective The 2010–2011 Queensland floods resulted in the most deaths from a single flood event in Australia since 1916. This article analyses the information on these deaths for comparison with those from previous floods in modern Australia in an attempt to identify factors that have contributed to those deaths. Haddon's Matrix, originally designed for prevention of road trauma, offers a framework for understanding the interplay between contributing factors and helps facilitate a clearer understanding of the varied strategies required to ensure people's safety for particular flood types. Methods Public reports and flood relevant literature were searched using key words ‘flood’, ‘fatality’, ‘mortality’, ‘death’, ‘injury’ and ‘victim’ through Google Scholar, PubMed, ProQuest and EBSCO. Data relating to reported deaths during the 2010–2011 Queensland floods, and relevant data of previous Australian flood fatality (1997–2009) were collected from these available sources. These sources were also used to identify contributing factors. Results There were 33 deaths directly attributed to the event, of which 54.5% were swept away in a flash flood on 10 January 2011. A further 15.1% of fatalities were caused by inappropriate behaviours. This is different to floods in modern Australia where over 90% of deaths are related to the choices made by individuals. There is no single reason why people drown in floods, but rather a complex interplay of factors. Conclusions The present study and its integration of research findings and conceptual frameworks might assist governments and communities to develop policies and strategies to prevent flood injury and fatalities.

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Aims: To compare different methods for identifying alcohol involvement in injury-related emergency department presentation in Queensland youth, and to explore the alcohol terminology used in triage text. Methods: Emergency Department Information System data were provided for patients aged 12-24 years with an injury-related diagnosis code for a 5 year period 2006-2010 presenting to a Queensland emergency department (N=348895). Three approaches were used to estimate alcohol involvement: 1) analysis of coded data, 2) mining of triage text, and 3) estimation using an adaptation of alcohol attributable fractions (AAF). Cases were identified as ‘alcohol-involved’ by code and text, as well as AAF weighted. Results: Around 6.4% of these injury presentations overall had some documentation of alcohol involvement, with higher proportions of alcohol involvement documented for 18-24 year olds, females, indigenous youth, where presentations occurred on a Saturday or Sunday, and where presentations occurred between midnight and 5am. The most common alcohol terms identified for all subgroups were generic alcohol terms (eg. ETOH or alcohol) with almost half of the cases where alcohol involvement was documented having a generic alcohol term recorded in the triage text. Conclusions: Emergency department data is a useful source of information for identification of high risk sub-groups to target intervention opportunities, though it is not a reliable source of data for incidence or trend estimation in its current unstandardised form. Improving the accuracy and consistency of identification, documenting and coding of alcohol-involvement at the point of data capture in the emergency department is the most desirable long term approach to produce a more solid evidence base to support policy and practice in this field.

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Hot spot identification (HSID) aims to identify potential sites—roadway segments, intersections, crosswalks, interchanges, ramps, etc.—with disproportionately high crash risk relative to similar sites. An inefficient HSID methodology might result in either identifying a safe site as high risk (false positive) or a high risk site as safe (false negative), and consequently lead to the misuse the available public funds, to poor investment decisions, and to inefficient risk management practice. Current HSID methods suffer from issues like underreporting of minor injury and property damage only (PDO) crashes, challenges of accounting for crash severity into the methodology, and selection of a proper safety performance function to model crash data that is often heavily skewed by a preponderance of zeros. Addressing these challenges, this paper proposes a combination of a PDO equivalency calculation and quantile regression technique to identify hot spots in a transportation network. In particular, issues related to underreporting and crash severity are tackled by incorporating equivalent PDO crashes, whilst the concerns related to the non-count nature of equivalent PDO crashes and the skewness of crash data are addressed by the non-parametric quantile regression technique. The proposed method identifies covariate effects on various quantiles of a population, rather than the population mean like most methods in practice, which more closely corresponds with how black spots are identified in practice. The proposed methodology is illustrated using rural road segment data from Korea and compared against the traditional EB method with negative binomial regression. Application of a quantile regression model on equivalent PDO crashes enables identification of a set of high-risk sites that reflect the true safety costs to the society, simultaneously reduces the influence of under-reported PDO and minor injury crashes, and overcomes the limitation of traditional NB model in dealing with preponderance of zeros problem or right skewed dataset.

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The accident record of the repair, maintenance, minor alteration, and addition (RMAA) sector has been alarmingly high; however, research in the RMAA sector remains limited. Unsafe behavior is considered one of the key causes of accidents. Thus, the organizational factors that influence individual safety behavior at work continue to be the focus of many studies. The safety climate, which reflects the true priority of safety in an organization, has drawn much attention. Safety climate measurement helps to identify areas for safety improvement. The current study aims to identify safety climate factors in the RMAA sector. A questionnaire survey was conducted in the RMAA sector in Hong Kong. Data were randomly split into the calibration and the validation samples. The RMAA safety climate factors were determined by exploratory factor analysis on the calibration sample. Three safety climate factors of the RMAA works were identified: (1) management commitment to occupational health and safety (OHS) and employee involvement, (2) application of safety rules and work practices, and; (3) responsibility for health and safety. Confirmatory factor analysis (CFA) was then conducted on the validation sample. The CFA model showed satisfactory goodness of fit, reliability, and validity. The suggested RMAA safety climate factors can be utilized by construction industry practitioners in developed economies to measure the safety climate of their RMAA projects, thereby enhancing the safety of RMAA works.

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Background. Volitional risky driving behaviours such as drink- and drug-driving (i.e. substance-impaired driving) and speeding contribute to the overrepresentation of young novice drivers in road crash fatalities, and crash risk is greatest during the first year of independent driving in particular. Aims. To explore the: 1) self-reported compliance of drivers with road rules regarding substance-impaired driving and other risky driving behaviours (e.g., speeding, driving while tired), one year after progression from a Learner to a Provisional (intermediate) licence; and 2) interrelationships between substance-impaired driving and other risky driving behaviours (e.g., crashes, offences, and Police avoidance). Methods. Drivers (n = 1,076; 319 males) aged 18-20 years were surveyed regarding their sociodemographics (age, gender) and self-reported driving behaviours including crashes, offences, Police avoidance, and driving intentions. Results. A relatively small proportion of participants reported driving after taking drugs (6.3% of males, 1.3% of females) and drinking alcohol (18.5% of males, 11.8% of females). In comparison, a considerable proportion of participants reported at least occasionally exceeding speed limits (86.7% of novices), and risky behaviours like driving when tired (83.6% of novices). Substance-impaired driving was associated with avoiding Police, speeding, risky driving intentions, and self-reported crashes and offences. Forty-three percent of respondents who drove after taking drugs also reported alcohol-impaired driving. Discussion and Conclusions. Behaviours of concern include drink driving, speeding, novice driving errors such as misjudging the speed of oncoming vehicles, violations of graduated driver licensing passenger restrictions, driving tired, driving faster if in a bad mood, and active punishment avoidance. Given the interrelationships between the risky driving behaviours, a deeper understanding of influential factors is required to inform targeted and general countermeasure implementation and evaluation during this critical driving period. Notwithstanding this, a combination of enforcement, education, and engineering efforts appear necessary to improve the road safety of the young novice driver, and for the drink-driving young novice driver in particular.

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A method is proposed to describe force or compound muscle action potential (CMAP) trace data collected in an electromyography study for motor unit number estimation (MUNE). Experimental data was collected using incre- mental stimulation at multiple durations. However, stimulus information, vital for alternate MUNE methods, is not comparable for multiple duration data and therefore previous methods of MUNE (Ridall et al., 2006, 2007) cannot be used with any reliability. Hypothesised ring combinations of motor units are mod- elled using a multiplicative factor and Bayesian P-spline formulation. The model describes the process for force and CMAP in a meaningful way.

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Engineering design processes are necessary to attain the requisite standards of integrity for high-assurance safety-related systems. Additionally, human factors design initiatives can provide critical insights that parameterise their development. Unfortunately, the popular perception of human factors as a “forced marriage” between engineering and psychology often provokes views where the ‘human factor’ is perceived as a threat to systems design. Some popular performance-based standards for developing safety-related systems advocate identifying and managing human factors throughout the system lifecycle. However, they also have a tendency to fall short in their guidance on the application of human factors methods and tools, let alone how the outputs generated can be integrated in to various stages of the design process. This case study describes a project that converged engineering with human factors to develop a safety argument for new low-cost railway level crossing technology for system-wide implementation in Australia. The paper enjoins the perspectives of a software engineer and cognitive psychologist and their involvement in the project over two years of collaborative work to develop a safety argument for low-cost level crossing technology. Safety and reliability requirements were informed by applying human factors analytical tools that supported the evaluation and quantification of human reliability where users interfaced with the technology. The project team was confronted with significant challenges in cross-disciplinary engagement, particularly with the complexities of dealing with incongruences in disciplinary language. They were also encouraged to think ‘outside the box’ as to how users of a system interpreted system states and ehaviour. Importantly, some of these states, while considered safe within the boundary of the constituent systems that implemented safety-related functions, could actually lead the users to engage in deviant behaviour. Psychology explained how user compliance could be eroded to levels that effectively undermined levels of risk reduction afforded by systems. Linking the engineering and psychology disciplines intuitively, overall safety performance was improved by introducing technical requirements and making design decisions that minimized the system states and behaviours that led to user deviancy. As a commentary on the utility of transdisciplinary collaboration for technical specification, the processes used to bridge the two disciplines are conceptualised in a graphical model.

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This paper addresses the problem of determining optimal designs for biological process models with intractable likelihoods, with the goal of parameter inference. The Bayesian approach is to choose a design that maximises the mean of a utility, and the utility is a function of the posterior distribution. Therefore, its estimation requires likelihood evaluations. However, many problems in experimental design involve models with intractable likelihoods, that is, likelihoods that are neither analytic nor can be computed in a reasonable amount of time. We propose a novel solution using indirect inference (II), a well established method in the literature, and the Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithm of Müller et al. (2004). Indirect inference employs an auxiliary model with a tractable likelihood in conjunction with the generative model, the assumed true model of interest, which has an intractable likelihood. Our approach is to estimate a map between the parameters of the generative and auxiliary models, using simulations from the generative model. An II posterior distribution is formed to expedite utility estimation. We also present a modification to the utility that allows the Müller algorithm to sample from a substantially sharpened utility surface, with little computational effort. Unlike competing methods, the II approach can handle complex design problems for models with intractable likelihoods on a continuous design space, with possible extension to many observations. The methodology is demonstrated using two stochastic models; a simple tractable death process used to validate the approach, and a motivating stochastic model for the population evolution of macroparasites.