Fatalism, superstition, religion, and culture : road user beliefs and behaviour in Pakistan

Road traffic crashes have emerged as a major health problem around the world. Road crash fatalities and injuries have been reduced significantly in developed countries, but they are still an issue in low and middle-income countries. The World Health Organization (WHO, 2009) estimates that the death toll from road crashes in low- and middle-income nations is more than 1 million people per year, or about 90% of the global road toll, even though these countries only account for 48% of the world's vehicles. Furthermore, it is estimated that approximately 265,000 people die every year in road crashes in South Asian countries and Pakistan stands out with 41,494 approximately deaths per year. Pakistan has the highest rate of fatalities per 100,000 population in the region and its road crash fatality rate of 25.3 per 100,000 population is more than three times that of Australia's. High numbers of road crashes not only cause pain and suffering to the population at large, but are also a serious drain on the country's economy, which Pakistan can ill-afford. Most studies identify human factors as the main set of contributing factors to road crashes, well ahead of road environment and vehicle factors. In developing countries especially, attention and resources are required in order to improve things such as vehicle roadworthiness and poor road infrastructure. However, attention to human factors is also critical. Human factors which contribute to crashes include high risk behaviours like speeding and drink driving, and neglect of protective behaviours such as helmet wearing and seat belt wearing. Much research has been devoted to the attitudes, beliefs and perceptions which contribute to these behaviours and omissions, in order to develop interventions aimed at increasing safer road use behaviours and thereby reducing crashes. However, less progress has been made in addressing human factors contributing to crashes in developing countries as compared to the many improvements in road environments and vehicle standards, and this is especially true of fatalistic beliefs and behaviours. This is a significant omission, since in different cultures in developing countries there are strong worldviews in which predestination persists as a central idea, i.e. that one's life (and death) and other events have been mapped out and are predetermined. Fatalism refers to a particular way in which people regard the events that occur in their lives, usually expressed as a belief that an individual does not have personal control over circumstances and that their lives are determined through a divine or powerful external agency (Hazen & Ehiri, 2006). These views are at odds with the dominant themes of modern health promotion movements, and present significant challenges for health advocates who aim to avert road crashes and diminish their consequences. The limited literature on fatalism reveals that it is not a simple concept, with religion, culture, superstition, experience, education and degree of perceived control of one's life all being implicated in accounts of fatalism. One distinction in the literature that seems promising is the distinction between empirical and theological fatalism, although there are areas of uncertainty about how well-defined the distinction between these types of fatalism is. Research into road safety in Pakistan is scarce, as is the case for other South Asian countries. From the review of the literature conducted, it is clear that the descriptions given of the different belief systems in developing countries including Pakistan are not entirely helpful for health promotion purposes and that further research is warranted on the influence of fatalism, superstition and other related beliefs in road safety. Based on the information available, a conceptual framework is developed as a means of structuring and focusing the research and analysis. The framework is focused on the influence of fatalism, superstition, religion and culture on beliefs about crashes and road user behaviour. Accordingly, this research aims to provide an understanding of the operation of fatalism and related beliefs in Pakistan to assist in the development and implementation of effective and culturally appropriate interventions. The research examines the influence of fatalism, superstition, religious and cultural beliefs on risky road use in Pakistan and is guided by three research questions: 1. What are the perceptions of road crash causation in Pakistan, in particular the role of fatalism, superstition, religious and cultural beliefs? 2. How does fatalism, superstition, and religious and cultural beliefs influence road user behaviour in Pakistan? 3. Do fatalism, superstition, and religious and cultural beliefs work as obstacles to road safety interventions in Pakistan? To address these questions, a qualitative research methodology was developed. The research focused on gathering data through individual in-depth interviewing using a semi-structured interview format. A sample of 30 participants was interviewed in Pakistan in the cities of Lahore, Rawalpindi and Islamabad. The participants included policy makers (with responsibility for traffic law), experienced police officers, religious orators, professional drivers (truck, bus and taxi) and general drivers selected through a combination of purposive, criterion and snowball sampling. The transcripts were translated from Urdu and analysed using a thematic analysis approach guided by the conceptual framework. The findings were divided into four areas: attribution of crash causation to fatalism; attribution of road crashes to beliefs about superstition and malicious acts; beliefs about road crash causation linked to popular concepts of religion; and implications for behaviour, safety and enforcement. Fatalism was almost universally evident, and expressed in a number of ways. Fate was used to rationalise fatal crashes using the argument that the people killed were destined to die that day, one way or another. Related to this was the sense of either not being fully in control of the vehicle, or not needing to take safety precautions, because crashes were predestined anyway. A variety of superstitious-based crash attributions and coping methods to deal with road crashes were also found, such as belief in the role of the evil eye in contributing to road crashes and the use of black magic by rivals or enemies as a crash cause. There were also beliefs related to popular conceptions of religion, such as the role of crashes as a test of life or a source of martyrdom. However, superstitions did not appear to be an alternative to religious beliefs. Fate appeared as the 'default attribution' for a crash when all other explanations failed to account for the incident. This pervasive belief was utilised to justify risky road use behaviour and to resist messages about preventive measures. There was a strong religious underpinning to the statement of fatalistic beliefs (this reflects popular conceptions of Islam rather than scholarly interpretations), but also an overlap with superstitious and other culturally and religious-based beliefs which have longer-standing roots in Pakistani culture. A particular issue which is explored in more detail is the way in which these beliefs and their interpretation within Pakistani society contributed to poor police reporting of crashes. The pervasive nature of fatalistic beliefs in Pakistan affects road user behaviour by supporting continued risk taking behaviour on the road, and by interfering with public health messages about behaviours which would reduce the risk of traffic crashes. The widespread influence of these beliefs on the ways that people respond to traffic crashes and the death of family members contribute to low crash reporting rates and to a system which appears difficult to change. Fate also appeared to be a major contributing factor to non-reporting of road crashes. There also appeared to be a relationship between police enforcement and (lack of) awareness of road rules. It also appears likely that beliefs can influence police work, especially in the case of road crash investigation and the development of strategies. It is anticipated that the findings could be used as a blueprint for the design of interventions aimed at influencing broad-spectrum health attitudes and practices among the communities where fatalism is prevalent. The findings have also identified aspects of beliefs that have complex social implications when designing and piloting driver intervention strategies. By understanding attitudes and behaviours related to fatalism, superstition and other related concepts, it should be possible to improve the education of general road users, such that they are less likely to attribute road crashes to chance, fate, or superstition. This study also underscores the understanding of this issue in high echelons of society (e.g., policy makers, senior police officers) as their role is vital in dispelling road users' misconceptions about the risks of road crashes. The promotion of an evidence or scientifically-based approach to road user behaviour and road safety is recommended, along with improved professional education for police and policy makers.

Parental bonding, family systems, and environmental predictors of adolescent homelessness

A multicausal model of adolescent homelessness is proposed, based upon the notion that homeless youth suffer from emotional, social, and cultural deprivation. The model was tested in a sample of homeless adolescents (n = 54) and a similar, but not homeless, control group (n = 58). Emotional deprivation was assessed on the Parental Bonding Inventory (Parker, Tupling,&Brown, 1979), whereas social and cultural deprivation were assessed on the Family Environment Scale (Moos&Moos, 1981). The homeless adolescents were found to be significantly more deprived emotionally, socially, and culturally than the controls. The results indicate support for a deprivation model of adolescent homelessness with implications for public policy and intervention planning.

Public, private, or hybrid? What the upstream oil and gas industry can learn from other sectors about ‘the cloud’

Despite the compelling case for moving towards cloud computing, the upstream oil & gas industry faces several technical challenges—most notably, a pronounced emphasis on data security, a reliance on extremely large data sets, and significant legacy investments in information technology (IT) infrastructure—that make a full migration to the public cloud difficult at present. Private and hybrid cloud solutions have consequently emerged within the industry to yield as much benefit from cloud-based technologies as possible while working within these constraints. This paper argues, however, that the move to private and hybrid clouds will very likely prove only to be a temporary stepping stone in the industry’s technological evolution. By presenting evidence from other market sectors that have faced similar challenges in their journey to the cloud, we propose that enabling technologies and conditions will probably fall into place in a way that makes the public cloud a far more attractive option for the upstream oil & gas industry in the years ahead. The paper concludes with a discussion about the implications of this projected shift towards the public cloud, and calls for more of the industry’s services to be offered through cloud-based “apps.”

Enhancing public transport passenger experience via mobile-mediated applications and services

Despite the rapidly urbanising population, public transport usage in metropolitan areas is not growing at a level that corresponds to the trend. Many people are reluctant to travel using public transport, as it is commonly associated with unpleasant experiences such as limited services, long wait time, and crowded spaces. This study aims to explore the use of mobile spatial interactions and services, and investigate their potential to increase the enjoyment of our everyday commuting experience. The main goal is to develop and evaluate mobile-mediated design interventions to foster interactions for and among passengers, as well as between passengers and public transport infrastructures, with the aim to positively influence the experience of commuting. Ultimately, this study hopes to generate findings and knowledge towards creating a more enjoyable public transport experience, as well as to explore innovative uses of mobile technologies and context-aware services for the urban lifestyle.

Outcomes following inpatient rehabilitation of lower limb amputees

Introduction: Lower-limb amputations are a serious adverse consequence of lifestyle related chronic conditions and a serious concern among the aging population in Australia. Lower limb amputations have severe personal, social and economic impacts on the individual, healthcare system and broader community. This study aimed to address a critical gap in the research literature by investigating the physical functioning and social characteristics of lower limb amputees at discharge from tertiary hospital inpatient rehabilitation. Method: A cohort study was implemented among patients with lower limb amputations admitted to a Geriatric Assessment and Rehabilitation Unit for rehabilitation at a tertiary hospital. Conventional descriptive statistics were used to examine patient demographic, physical functioning and social living outcomes recorded for patients admitted between 2005 and 2011. Results: A total of 423 admissions occurred during the study period, 313 (74%) were male. This sample included admissions for left (n = 189, 45%), right (n = 220, 52%) and bilateral (n = 14, 3%) lower limb amputations, with 15 (3%) patients dying whilst an inpatient. The mean (standard deviation) age was 65 (13.9) years. Amputations attributed to vascular causes accounted for 333 (78%) admissions; 65 (15%) of these had previously had an amputation. The mean (SD) length of stay in the rehabilitation unit was 56 (42) days. Prior to this admission, 123 (29%) patients were living alone, 289 (68%) were living with another and 3 (0.7%) were living in residential care. Following this amputation related admission, 89 (21%) patients did not return to their prior living situation. Of those admitted, 187 (44%) patients were discharged with a lower limb prosthesis. Conclusion: The clinical group is predominately older adults. The ratio of males to females was approximately 3:1. Over half did not return to walking and many were not able to return to their prior accommodation. However, few patients died during their admission.

Towards improving public understanding of judgement practice in standards-referenced assessment : an Australian perspective

Internationally there has been a move towards standards-referenced assessment with countries such as Australia developing a National Curriculum and Achievement Standards, New Zealand adopting National Standards for literacy and numeracy that involve schools making and reporting judgements about the reading, writing and mathematics achievement of children up to Year 8 (the end of primary school) and in Canada, classroom assessment standards aimed at the improvement of assessment practice of K-12 education are being formulated. Standards-driven reform has major implications for teachers’ work. The consequences of adopting a standards-driven approach to educational change by systems are often under-estimated with the unintended effects not fully understood by either the policy writers, and the public, including parents. It is for these reasons that the contention developed in this article relates to the teacher’s role, which it is argued remains central to policy focused on the improvement of the quality of education and educational standards.

The use of CCTV to police public spaces : a case of big brother or big friend?

This paper considers the role of CCTV (closed circuit television) in the surveillance, policing and control of public space in urban and rural locations, specifically in relation to the use of public space by young people. The use of CCTV technology in public spaces is now an established and largely uncontested feature of everyday life in a number of countries and the assertion that they are essentially there for the protection of law abiding and consuming citizens has broadly gone unchallenged. With little or no debate in the U.K. to critique the claims made by the burgeoning security industry that CCTV protects people in the form of a ‘Big Friend’, the state at both central and local levels has endorsed the installation of CCTV apparatus across the nation. Some areas assert in their promotional material that the centre of the shopping and leisure zone is fully surveilled by cameras in order to reassure visitors that their personal safety is a matter of civic concern, with even small towns and villages expending monies on sophisticated and expensive to maintain camera systems. It is within a context of monitoring, recording and control procedures that young people’s use of public space is constructed as a threat to social order, in need of surveillance and exclusion which forms a major and contemporary feature in shaping thinking about urban and rural working class young people in the U.K. As Loader (1996) notes, young people’s claims on public space rarely gain legitimacy if ‘colliding’ with those of local residents, and Davis (1990) describes the increasing ‘militarization and destruction of public space’, while Jacobs (1965) asserts that full participation in the ‘daily life of urban streets’ is essential to the development of young people and beneficial for all who live in an area. This paper challenges the uncritical acceptance of widespread use of CCTV and identifies its oppressive and malevolent potential in forming a ‘surveillance gaze’ over young people (adapting Foucault’s ‘clinical gaze’c. 1973) which can jeopardise mental health and well being in coping with the ‘metropolis’, after Simmel, (1964).

Years lived with disability (YLDs) for 1160 sequelae of 289 diseases and injuries 1990–2010 : a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010

Background Non-fatal health outcomes from diseases and injuries are a crucial consideration in the promotion and monitoring of individual and population health. The Global Burden of Disease (GBD) studies done in 1990 and 2000 have been the only studies to quantify non-fatal health outcomes across an exhaustive set of disorders at the global and regional level. Neither effort quantified uncertainty in prevalence or years lived with disability (YLDs). Methods Of the 291 diseases and injuries in the GBD cause list, 289 cause disability. For 1160 sequelae of the 289 diseases and injuries, we undertook a systematic analysis of prevalence, incidence, remission, duration, and excess mortality. Sources included published studies, case notification, population-based cancer registries, other disease registries, antenatal clinic serosurveillance, hospital discharge data, ambulatory care data, household surveys, other surveys, and cohort studies. For most sequelae, we used a Bayesian meta-regression method, DisMod-MR, designed to address key limitations in descriptive epidemiological data, including missing data, inconsistency, and large methodological variation between data sources. For some disorders, we used natural history models, geospatial models, back-calculation models (models calculating incidence from population mortality rates and case fatality), or registration completeness models (models adjusting for incomplete registration with health-system access and other covariates). Disability weights for 220 unique health states were used to capture the severity of health loss. YLDs by cause at age, sex, country, and year levels were adjusted for comorbidity with simulation methods. We included uncertainty estimates at all stages of the analysis. Findings Global prevalence for all ages combined in 2010 across the 1160 sequelae ranged from fewer than one case per 1 million people to 350 000 cases per 1 million people. Prevalence and severity of health loss were weakly correlated (correlation coefficient −0·37). In 2010, there were 777 million YLDs from all causes, up from 583 million in 1990. The main contributors to global YLDs were mental and behavioural disorders, musculoskeletal disorders, and diabetes or endocrine diseases. The leading specific causes of YLDs were much the same in 2010 as they were in 1990: low back pain, major depressive disorder, iron-deficiency anaemia, neck pain, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, anxiety disorders, migraine, diabetes, and falls. Age-specific prevalence of YLDs increased with age in all regions and has decreased slightly from 1990 to 2010. Regional patterns of the leading causes of YLDs were more similar compared with years of life lost due to premature mortality. Neglected tropical diseases, HIV/AIDS, tuberculosis, malaria, and anaemia were important causes of YLDs in sub-Saharan Africa. Interpretation Rates of YLDs per 100 000 people have remained largely constant over time but rise steadily with age. Population growth and ageing have increased YLD numbers and crude rates over the past two decades. Prevalences of the most common causes of YLDs, such as mental and behavioural disorders and musculoskeletal disorders, have not decreased. Health systems will need to address the needs of the rising numbers of individuals with a range of disorders that largely cause disability but not mortality. Quantification of the burden of non-fatal health outcomes will be crucial to understand how well health systems are responding to these challenges. Effective and affordable strategies to deal with this rising burden are an urgent priority for health systems in most parts of the world. Funding Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Sustainable, safe, smart—three key elements of Singapore’s evolving transport policies

Sustainability, safety and smartness are three key elements of a modern transportation system. This study illustrates various policy directions and initiatives of Singapore to address how its transportation system is progressing in light of these three components. Sustainability targets economical efficiency, environmental justice and social equity by including policies for integrating land use and transport planning, ensuring adequate transport supply measures, managing travel demand efficiently, and incorporating environment-friendly strategies. Safety initiatives of its transportation system aim to minimize injuries and incidents of all users including motorists, public transport commuters, pedestrians, and bicyclists. Smartness incorporates qualities like real time sensing, fast processing and decision making, and automated action-taking into its control, monitoring, information management and revenue collection systems. Various policy implications and technology applications along these three directions reveal that smart technologies facilitate implementation of policies promoting sustainability and safety. The Singapore experience could serve as a good reference for other cities in promoting a transportation system that is sustainable, safe and smart.

Evaluating the effectiveness of heat warning systems : a systematic review of epidemiological evidence

Objectives To review the existing research on the effectiveness of heat warning systems (HWSs) in saving lives and reducing harm. Methods A systematic search of major databases was conducted, using “heat, heatwave, high temperature, hot temperature, OR hot climate” AND “warning system”. Results Fifteen articles were retrieved. Six studies asserted that fewer people died of excessive heat after HWS implementation. HWS was associated with reduction in ambulance use. One study estimated the benefits of HWS to be 468millionforsaving117livescomparedto210,000 costs of running the system. Eight studies showed that mere availability of HWS did not lead to behavioral changes. Perceived threat of heat dangers to self/others was the main factor related to heeding warnings and taking proper actions. However, costs and barriers associated with taking protective actions, such as costs of running air conditioners, were of significant concern particularly to the poor. Conclusions Research in this area is limited. Prospective designs applying health behavior theories should establish whether HWS can produce the health benefits they are purported to achieve by identifying the target vulnerable groups.

Are heat warning systems effective?

Heatwaves are associated with significant health risks particularly among vulnerable groups. To minimize these risks, heat warning systems have been implemented. The question therefore is how effective these systems are in saving lives and reducing heat-related harm. We systematically searched and reviewed 15 studies which examined this. Six studies asserted that fewer people died of excessive heat after the implementation of heat warning systems. Demand for ambulance decreased following the implementation of these systems. One study also estimated the costs of running heat warning systems at US$210,000 compared to the US$468 million benefits of saving 117 lives. The remaining eight studies investigated people?s response to heat warning systems and taking appropriate actions against heat harms. Perceived threat of heat dangers emerged as the main factor related to heeding the warnings and taking proper actions. However, barriers, such as costs of running air-conditioners, were of significant concern, particularly to the poor. The weight of the evidence suggests that heat warning systems are effective in reducing mortality and, potentially, morbidity. However, their effectiveness may be mediated by cognitive, emotive and socio-demographic characteristics. More research is urgently required into the cost-effectiveness of heat warning systems? measures and improving the utilization of the services.

A comparative study of governmental one-stop portals for public service delivery

The continuing need for governments to radically improve the delivery of public services has led to a new, holistic government reform strategy labeled “Transformational Government” that strongly emphasizes customer-centricity. Attention has turned to online portals as a cost effective front-end to deliver services and engage customers as well as to the corresponding organizational approaches for the back-end to decouple the service interface from the departmental structures. The research presented in this paper makes three contributions: Firstly, a systematic literature review of approaches to the evaluation of online portal models in the public sector is presented. Secondly, the findings of a usability study comparing the online presences of the Queensland Government, the UK Government and the South Australian Government are reported and the relative strengths and weaknesses of the different approaches are discussed. And thirdly, the limitations of the usability study in the context of a broader “Transformational Government” approach are identified and service bundling is suggested as an innovative solution to further improve online service delivery.

Specifying information systems for business process integration : a management perspective

Supply chain management and customer relationship management are concepts for optimizing the provision of goods to customers. Information sharing and information estimation are key tools used to implement these two concepts. The reduction of delivery times and stock levels can be seen as the main managerial objectives of an integrative supply chain and customer relationship management. To achieve this objective, business processes need to be integrated along the entire supply chain including the end consumer. Information systems form the backbone of any business process integration. The relevant information system architectures are generally well-understood, but the conceptual specification of information systems for business process integration from a management perspective, remains an open methodological problem. To address this problem, we will show how customer relationship management and supply chain management information can be integrated at the conceptual level in order to provide supply chain managers with relevant information. We will further outline how the conceptual management perspective of business process integration can be supported by deriving specifications for enabling information system from business objectives.

Estimating the effects of ambient temperature on mortality : methodological challenges and proposed solutions

The health impacts of exposure to ambient temperature have been drawing increasing attention from the environmental health research community, government, society, industries, and the public. Case-crossover and time series models are most commonly used to examine the effects of ambient temperature on mortality. However, some key methodological issues remain to be addressed. For example, few studies have used spatiotemporal models to assess the effects of spatial temperatures on mortality. Few studies have used a case-crossover design to examine the delayed (distributed lag) and non-linear relationship between temperature and mortality. Also, little evidence is available on the effects of temperature changes on mortality, and on differences in heat-related mortality over time. This thesis aimed to address the following research questions: 1. How to combine case-crossover design and distributed lag non-linear models? 2. Is there any significant difference in effect estimates between time series and spatiotemporal models? 3. How to assess the effects of temperature changes between neighbouring days on mortality? 4. Is there any change in temperature effects on mortality over time? To combine the case-crossover design and distributed lag non-linear model, datasets including deaths, and weather conditions (minimum temperature, mean temperature, maximum temperature, and relative humidity), and air pollution were acquired from Tianjin China, for the years 2005 to 2007. I demonstrated how to combine the case-crossover design with a distributed lag non-linear model. This allows the case-crossover design to estimate the non-linear and delayed effects of temperature whilst controlling for seasonality. There was consistent U-shaped relationship between temperature and mortality. Cold effects were delayed by 3 days, and persisted for 10 days. Hot effects were acute and lasted for three days, and were followed by mortality displacement for non-accidental, cardiopulmonary, and cardiovascular deaths. Mean temperature was a better predictor of mortality (based on model fit) than maximum or minimum temperature. It is still unclear whether spatiotemporal models using spatial temperature exposure produce better estimates of mortality risk compared with time series models that use a single site’s temperature or averaged temperature from a network of sites. Daily mortality data were obtained from 163 locations across Brisbane city, Australia from 2000 to 2004. Ordinary kriging was used to interpolate spatial temperatures across the city based on 19 monitoring sites. A spatiotemporal model was used to examine the impact of spatial temperature on mortality. A time series model was used to assess the effects of single site’s temperature, and averaged temperature from 3 monitoring sites on mortality. Squared Pearson scaled residuals were used to check the model fit. The results of this study show that even though spatiotemporal models gave a better model fit than time series models, spatiotemporal and time series models gave similar effect estimates. Time series analyses using temperature recorded from a single monitoring site or average temperature of multiple sites were equally good at estimating the association between temperature and mortality as compared with a spatiotemporal model. A time series Poisson regression model was used to estimate the association between temperature change and mortality in summer in Brisbane, Australia during 1996–2004 and Los Angeles, United States during 1987–2000. Temperature change was calculated by the current day's mean temperature minus the previous day's mean. In Brisbane, a drop of more than 3 �C in temperature between days was associated with relative risks (RRs) of 1.16 (95% confidence interval (CI): 1.02, 1.31) for non-external mortality (NEM), 1.19 (95% CI: 1.00, 1.41) for NEM in females, and 1.44 (95% CI: 1.10, 1.89) for NEM aged 65.74 years. An increase of more than 3 �C was associated with RRs of 1.35 (95% CI: 1.03, 1.77) for cardiovascular mortality and 1.67 (95% CI: 1.15, 2.43) for people aged < 65 years. In Los Angeles, only a drop of more than 3 �C was significantly associated with RRs of 1.13 (95% CI: 1.05, 1.22) for total NEM, 1.25 (95% CI: 1.13, 1.39) for cardiovascular mortality, and 1.25 (95% CI: 1.14, 1.39) for people aged . 75 years. In both cities, there were joint effects of temperature change and mean temperature on NEM. A change in temperature of more than 3 �C, whether positive or negative, has an adverse impact on mortality even after controlling for mean temperature. I examined the variation in the effects of high temperatures on elderly mortality (age . 75 years) by year, city and region for 83 large US cities between 1987 and 2000. High temperature days were defined as two or more consecutive days with temperatures above the 90th percentile for each city during each warm season (May 1 to September 30). The mortality risk for high temperatures was decomposed into: a "main effect" due to high temperatures using a distributed lag non-linear function, and an "added effect" due to consecutive high temperature days. I pooled yearly effects across regions and overall effects at both regional and national levels. The effects of high temperature (both main and added effects) on elderly mortality varied greatly by year, city and region. The years with higher heat-related mortality were often followed by those with relatively lower mortality. Understanding this variability in the effects of high temperatures is important for the development of heat-warning systems. In conclusion, this thesis makes contribution in several aspects. Case-crossover design was combined with distribute lag non-linear model to assess the effects of temperature on mortality in Tianjin. This makes the case-crossover design flexibly estimate the non-linear and delayed effects of temperature. Both extreme cold and high temperatures increased the risk of mortality in Tianjin. Time series model using single site’s temperature or averaged temperature from some sites can be used to examine the effects of temperature on mortality. Temperature change (no matter significant temperature drop or great temperature increase) increases the risk of mortality. The high temperature effect on mortality is highly variable from year to year.

Towards proximity-based passenger sensing on public transport buses

While substantial research on intelligent transportation systems has focused on the development of novel wireless communication technologies and protocols, relatively little work has sought to fully exploit proximity-based wireless technologies that passengers actually carry with them today. This paper presents the real-world deployment of a system that exploits public transit bus passengers’ Bluetooth-capable devices to capture and reconstruct micro- and macro-passenger behavior. We present supporting evidence that approximately 12% of passengers already carry Bluetooth-enabled devices and that the data collected on these passengers captures with almost 80 % accuracy the daily fluctuation of actual passengers flows. The paper makes three contributions in terms of understanding passenger behavior: We verify that the length of passenger trips is exponentially bounded, the frequency of passenger trips follows a power law distribution, and the microstructure of the network of passenger movements is polycentric.