A sequential Monte Carlo algorithm to incorporate model uncertainty in Bayesian sequential design

Here we present a sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) algorithm that can be used for any one-at-a-time Bayesian sequential design problem in the presence of model uncertainty where discrete data are encountered. Our focus is on adaptive design for model discrimination but the methodology is applicable if one has a different design objective such as parameter estimation or prediction. An SMC algorithm is run in parallel for each model and the algorithm relies on a convenient estimator of the evidence of each model which is essentially a function of importance sampling weights. Other methods for this task such as quadrature, often used in design, suffer from the curse of dimensionality. Approximating posterior model probabilities in this way allows us to use model discrimination utility functions derived from information theory that were previously difficult to compute except for conjugate models. A major benefit of the algorithm is that it requires very little problem specific tuning. We demonstrate the methodology on three applications, including discriminating between models for decline in motor neuron numbers in patients suffering from neurological diseases such as Motor Neuron disease.

A Context Space Model for Detecting Anomalous Behaviour in Video Surveillance

Having a good automatic anomalous human behaviour detection is one of the goals of smart surveillance systems’ domain of research. The automatic detection addresses several human factor issues underlying the existing surveillance systems. To create such a detection system, contextual information needs to be considered. This is because context is required in order to correctly understand human behaviour. Unfortunately, the use of contextual information is still limited in the automatic anomalous human behaviour detection approaches. This paper proposes a context space model which has two benefits: (a) It provides guidelines for the system designers to select information which can be used to describe context; (b)It enables a system to distinguish between different contexts. A comparative analysis is conducted between a context-based system which employs the proposed context space model and a system which is implemented based on one of the existing approaches. The comparison is applied on a scenario constructed using video clips from CAVIAR dataset. The results show that the context-based system outperforms the other system. This is because the context space model allows the system to considering knowledge learned from the relevant context only.

Standardisation of digital human models

Digital human models (DHM) have evolved as useful tools for ergonomic workplace design and product development, and found in various industries and education. DHM systems which dominate the market were developed for specific purposes and differ significantly, which is not only reflected in non-compatible results of DHM simulations, but also provoking misunderstanding of how DHM simulations relate to real world problems. While DHM developers are restricted by uncertainty about the user need and lack of model data related standards, users are confined to one specific product and cannot exchange results, or upgrade to another DHM system, as their previous results would be rendered worthless. Furthermore, origin and validity of anthropometric and biomechanical data is not transparent to the user. The lack of standardisation in DHM systems has become a major roadblock in further system development, affecting all stakeholders in the DHM industry. Evidently, a framework for standardising digital human models is necessary to overcome current obstructions.

A behavioural car-following model that captures traffic oscillations

This paper presents a behavioral car-following model based on empirical trajectory data that is able to reproduce the spontaneous formation and ensuing propagation of stop-and-go waves in congested traffic. By analyzing individual drivers’ car-following behavior throughout oscillation cycles it is found that this behavior is consistent across drivers and can be captured by a simple model. The statistical analysis of the model’s parameters reveals that there is a strong correlation between driver behavior before and during the oscillation, and that this correlation should not be ignored if one is interested in microscopic output. If macroscopic outputs are of interest, simulation results indicate that an existing model with fewer parameters can be used instead. This is shown for traffic oscillations caused by rubbernecking as observed in the US 101 NGSIM dataset. The same experiment is used to establish the relationship between rubbernecking behavior and the period of oscillations.

One more tier, no more tears: Students’ perceptions of QUT Library’s 2nd tier learning and study support

This nuts and bolts session discusses QUT Library’s Study Solutions service which is staffed by academic skills advisors and librarians as the 2nd tier of its learning and study support model. Firstly, it will discuss the rationale behind the Study Solutions model and provide a brief profile of the service. Secondly, it will outline what distinguishes it from other modes of one-to-one learning support. Thirdly, it will report findings from a student perception study conducted to determine what difference this model of individual study assistance made to academic confidence, ability to transfer academic skills and capacity to assist peers. Finally, this session will include small group discussions to consider the feasibility of this model as best practice for other tertiary institutions and student perception as a valuable measure of the impact of learning support services.

'Nothing exists for one cause' : putting biology back into evolution

The opening phrase of the title is from Charles Darwin’s notebooks (Schweber 1977). It is a double reminder, firstly that mainstream evolutionary theory is not just about describing nature but is particularly looking for mechanisms or ‘causes’, and secondly, that there will usually be several causes affecting any particular outcome. The second part of the title is our concern at the almost universal rejection of the idea that biological mechanisms are sufficient for macroevolutionary changes, thus rejecting a cornerstone of Darwinian evolutionary theory. Our primary aim here is to consider ways of making it easier to develop and to test hypotheses about evolution. Formalizing hypotheses can help generate tests. In an absolute sense, some of the discussion by scientists about evolution is little better than the lack of reasoning used by those advocating intelligent design. Our discussion here is in a Popperian framework where science is defined by that area of study where it is possible, in principle, to find evidence against hypotheses – they are in principle falsifiable. However, with time, the boundaries of science keep expanding. In the past, some aspects of evolution were outside the current boundaries of falsifiable science, but increasingly new techniques and ideas are expanding the boundaries of science and it is appropriate to re-examine some topics. It often appears that over the last few decades there has been an increasingly strong assumption to look first (and only) for a physical cause. This decision is virtually never formally discussed, just an assumption is made that some physical factor ‘drives’ evolution. It is necessary to examine our assumptions much more carefully. What is meant by physical factors ‘driving’ evolution, or what is an ‘explosive radiation’. Our discussion focuses on two of the six mass extinctions, the fifth being events in the Late Cretaceous, and the sixth starting at least 50,000 years ago (and is ongoing). Cretaceous/Tertiary boundary; the rise of birds and mammals. We have had a long-term interest (Cooper and Penny 1997) in designing tests to help evaluate whether the processes of microevolution are sufficient to explain macroevolution. The real challenge is to formulate hypotheses in a testable way. For example the numbers of lineages of birds and mammals that survive from the Cretaceous to the present is one test. Our first estimate was 22 for birds, and current work is tending to increase this value. This still does not consider lineages that survived into the Tertiary, and then went extinct later. Our initial suggestion was probably too narrow in that it lumped four models from Penny and Phillips (2004) into one model. This reduction is too simplistic in that we need to know about survival and ecological and morphological divergences during the Late Cretaceous, and whether Crown groups of avian or mammalian orders may have existed back into the Cretaceous. More recently (Penny and Phillips 2004) we have formalized hypotheses about dinosaurs and pterosaurs, with the prediction that interactions between mammals (and groundfeeding birds) and dinosaurs would be most likely to affect the smallest dinosaurs, and similarly interactions between birds and pterosaurs would particularly affect the smaller pterosaurs. There is now evidence for both classes of interactions, with the smallest dinosaurs and pterosaurs declining first, as predicted. Thus, testable models are now possible. Mass extinction number six: human impacts. On a broad scale, there is a good correlation between time of human arrival, and increased extinctions (Hurles et al. 2003; Martin 2005; Figure 1). However, it is necessary to distinguish different time scales (Penny 2005) and on a finer scale there are still large numbers of possibilities. In Hurles et al. (2003) we mentioned habitat modification (including the use of Geogenes III July 2006 31 fire), introduced plants and animals (including kiore) in addition to direct predation (the ‘overkill’ hypothesis). We need also to consider prey switching that occurs in early human societies, as evidenced by the results of Wragg (1995) on the middens of different ages on Henderson Island in the Pitcairn group. In addition, the presence of human-wary or humanadapted animals will affect the distribution in the subfossil record. A better understanding of human impacts world-wide, in conjunction with pre-scientific knowledge will make it easier to discuss the issues by removing ‘blame’. While continued spontaneous generation was accepted universally, there was the expectation that animals continued to reappear. New Zealand is one of the very best locations in the world to study many of these issues. Apart from the marine fossil record, some human impact events are extremely recent and the remains less disrupted by time.

Training the public to collect oral histories of our community : the OHAA Queensland Chapter’s model

In a digital age, the skills required to undertake an oral history project have changed dramatically. For community groups, this shift can be new and exciting, but can also invoke feelings of anxiety when there is a gap in the skill set. Addressing this gap is one of Oral History Association of Australia, Queensland (OHAA Qld) main activities. This paper reports on the OHAA Qld chapter’s oral history workshop program, which was radically altered in 2011.

Corporate governance and misappropriation

This study examines the occurrence of misappropriation-type fraud within Australian listed firms and the relation between the incidence of this type of fraud and a firm's governance strength. We measure governance strength using factors relating to traditional corporate governance, such as board composition, CEO duality, and audit committee composition, as well as factors relating to information technology governance. In our study, we use actual dollar amount of fraud reported by listed companies responding to the 2004 KPMG Fraud Survey as one of three different misappropriation measures and publicly available firm-specific data to measure the other variables in the model. Our study found that where the chief executive officer (CEO) also holds the position of chairperson of the board of directors, the likelihood of fraud increases. We also find that the greater the number of independent directors on the audit committee, the lower the level of fraud. Taken together, these results are particularly encouraging as they provide support for regulatory bodies such as the Australian Stock Exchange (ASX) and the Australian Securities and Investment Commission (ASIC), which place considerable emphasis on the importance of establishing good corporate governance practices. The study provides empirical evidence that employing good corporate governance reduces the risk of the misappropriation of assets.

A boundary preserving numerical algorithm for the Wright-Fisher model with mutation

The Wright-Fisher model is an Itô stochastic differential equation that was originally introduced to model genetic drift within finite populations and has recently been used as an approximation to ion channel dynamics within cardiac and neuronal cells. While analytic solutions to this equation remain within the interval [0,1], current numerical methods are unable to preserve such boundaries in the approximation. We present a new numerical method that guarantees approximations to a form of Wright-Fisher model, which includes mutation, remain within [0,1] for all time with probability one. Strong convergence of the method is proved and numerical experiments suggest that this new scheme converges with strong order 1/2. Extending this method to a multidimensional case, numerical tests suggest that the algorithm still converges strongly with order 1/2. Finally, numerical solutions obtained using this new method are compared to those obtained using the Euler-Maruyama method where the Wiener increment is resampled to ensure solutions remain within [0,1].

Investigating the potential value of individual parameters of histological grading systems in a sheep model of cartilage damage : the modified Mankin method

A total histological grade does not necessarily distinguish between different manifestations of cartilage damage or degeneration. An accurate and reliable histological assessment method is required to separate normal and pathological tissue within a joint during treatment of degenerative joint conditions and to sub-classify the latter in meaningful ways. The Modified Mankin method may be adaptable for this purpose. We investigated how much detail may be lost by assigning one composite score/grade to represent different degenerative components of the osteoarthritic condition. We used four ovine injury models (sham surgery, anterior cruciate ligament/medial collateral ligament instability, simulated anatomic anterior cruciate ligament reconstruction and meniscal removal) to induce different degrees and potentially 'types' (mechanisms) of osteoarthritis. Articular cartilage was systematically harvested, prepared for histological examination and graded in a blinded fashion using a Modified Mankin grading method. Results showed that the possible permutations of cartilage damage were significant and far more varied than the current intended use that histological grading systems allow. Of 1352 cartilage specimens graded, 234 different manifestations of potential histological damage were observed across 23 potential individual grades of the Modified Mankin grading method. The results presented here show that current composite histological grading may contain additional information that could potentially discern different stages or mechanisms of cartilage damage and degeneration in a sheep model. This approach may be applicable to other grading systems.

Environmental factors controlling temporal and spatial variability in the soil-atmosphere exchange of CO2, CH4 and N2O from an Australian subtropical rainforest

The temporal variations in CO2, CH4 and N2O fluxes were measured over two consecutive years from February 2007 to March 2009 from a subtropical rainforest in south-eastern Queensland, Australia, using an automated sampling system. A concurrent study using an additional 30 manual chambers examined the spatial variability of emissions distributed across three nearby remnant rainforest sites with similar vegetation and climatic conditions. Interannual variation in fluxes of all gases over the 2 years was minimal, despite large discrepancies in rainfall, whereas a pronounced seasonal variation could only be observed for CO2 fluxes. High infiltration, drainage and subsequent high soil aeration under the rainforest limited N2O loss while promoting substantial CH4 uptake. The average annual N2O loss of 0.5 ± 0.1 kg N2O-N ha−1 over the 2-year measurement period was at the lower end of reported fluxes from rainforest soils. The rainforest soil functioned as a sink for atmospheric CH4 throughout the entire 2-year period, despite periods of substantial rainfall. A clear linear correlation between soil moisture and CH4 uptake was found. Rates of uptake ranged from greater than 15 g CH4-C ha−1 day−1 during extended dry periods to less than 2–5 g CH4-C ha−1 day−1 when soil water content was high. The calculated annual CH4 uptake at the site was 3.65 kg CH4-C ha−1 yr−1. This is amongst the highest reported for rainforest systems, reiterating the ability of aerated subtropical rainforests to act as substantial sinks of CH4. The spatial study showed N2O fluxes almost eight times higher, and CH4 uptake reduced by over one-third, as clay content of the rainforest soil increased from 12% to more than 23%. This demonstrates that for some rainforest ecosystems, soil texture and related water infiltration and drainage capacity constraints may play a more important role in controlling fluxes than either vegetation or seasonal variability

An examination of recent taxation amendments, corporate law reforms and Queensland legislative reforms affecting nonprofit organisations

There is a tax amendment bill which will be debated. The Government has promised to outline its plan for the reform of the taxation system sometime this year. The plans appear to go beyond the mere introduction of some sort of goods and services tax to reform of the whole taxation system including fiscal relations with the States. Not for profit organisations will find their taxation environment will change. Governments are reluctant to permit exemptions to a GST style arrangements. GST trade offs such as reduced income tax rates and abolishing indirect taxes are useless to nonprofit organisations, as many are already exempt from such imposts. Administrative changes to tax collections may also have an impact. If the government decides to make an individual PAYE taxpayer return optional in exchange for no or standard deductions, this may have an effect on fundraising. The FBT and salary packaging schemes that not for profit organisations use will be under intense scrutiny. A regionalisation of the ATO along the successful model of the ASC would see discrete areas such as not for profit exemptions being centralised in one regional office for the whole of Australia. For example the Tasmanian ASC Office has the responsibility for much work in respect of corporate charities and not for profit companies.

Quantum key distribution in the classical authenticated key exchange framework

Key establishment is a crucial primitive for building secure channels in a multi-party setting. Without quantum mechanics, key establishment can only be done under the assumption that some computational problem is hard. Since digital communication can be easily eavesdropped and recorded, it is important to consider the secrecy of information anticipating future algorithmic and computational discoveries which could break the secrecy of past keys, violating the secrecy of the confidential channel. Quantum key distribution (QKD) can be used generate secret keys that are secure against any future algorithmic or computational improvements. QKD protocols still require authentication of classical communication, although existing security proofs of QKD typically assume idealized authentication. It is generally considered folklore that QKD when used with computationally secure authentication is still secure against an unbounded adversary, provided the adversary did not break the authentication during the run of the protocol. We describe a security model for quantum key distribution extending classical authenticated key exchange (AKE) security models. Using our model, we characterize the long-term security of the BB84 QKD protocol with computationally secure authentication against an eventually unbounded adversary. By basing our model on traditional AKE models, we can more readily compare the relative merits of various forms of QKD and existing classical AKE protocols. This comparison illustrates in which types of adversarial environments different quantum and classical key agreement protocols can be secure.

Stigmergy in Web 2.0 : a model for site dynamics

Building Web 2.0 sites does not necessarily ensure the success of the site. We aim to better understand what improves the success of a site by drawing insight from biologically inspired design patterns. Web 2.0 sites provide a mechanism for human interaction enabling powerful intercommunication between massive volumes of users. Early Web 2.0 site providers that were previously dominant are being succeeded by newer sites providing innovative social interaction mechanisms. Understanding what site traits contribute to this success drives research into Web sites mechanics using models to describe the associated social networking behaviour. Some of these models attempt to show how the volume of users provides a self-organising and self-contextualisation of content. One model describing coordinated environments is called stigmergy, a term originally describing coordinated insect behavior. This paper explores how exploiting stigmergy can provide a valuable mechanism for identifying and analysing online user behavior specifically when considering that user freedom of choice is restricted by the provided web site functionality. This will aid our building better collaborative Web sites improving the collaborative processes.

Zoledronic acid preserves bone structure and increases survival but does not limit tumour incidence in a prostate cancer bone metastasis model

Background The bisphosphonate, zoledronic acid (ZOL), can inhibit osteoclasts leading to decreased osteoclastogenesis and osteoclast activity in bone. Here, we used a mixed osteolytic/osteoblastic murine model of bone-metastatic prostate cancer, RM1(BM), to determine how inhibiting osteolysis with ZOL affects the ability of these cells to establish metastases in bone, the integrity of the tumour-bearing bones and the survival of the tumour-bearing mice. Methods The model involves intracardiac injection for arterial dissemination of the RM1(BM) cells in C57BL/6 mice. ZOL treatment was given via subcutaneous injections on days 0, 4, 8 and 12, at 20 and 100 µg/kg doses. Bone integrity was assessed by micro-computed tomography and histology with comparison to untreated mice. The osteoclast and osteoblast activity was determined by measuring serum tartrate-resistant acid phosphatase 5b (TRAP 5b) and osteocalcin, respectively. Mice were euthanased according to predetermined criteria and survival was assessed using Kaplan Meier plots. Findings Micro-CT and histological analysis showed that treatment of mice with ZOL from the day of intracardiac injection of RM1(BM) cells inhibited tumour-induced bone lysis, maintained bone volume and reduced the calcification of tumour-induced endochondral osteoid material. ZOL treatment also led to a decreased serum osteocalcin and TRAP 5b levels. Additionally, treated mice showed increased survival compared to vehicle treated controls. However, ZOL treatment did not inhibit the cells ability to metastasise to bone as the number of bone-metastases was similar in both treated and untreated mice. Conclusions ZOL treatment provided significant benefits for maintaining the integrity of tumour-bearing bones and increased the survival of tumour bearing mice, though it did not prevent establishment of bone-metastases in this model. From the mechanistic view, these observations confirm that tumour-induced bone lysis is not a requirement for establishment of these bone tumours.