Multi-objective models and techniques for analysing the absolute capacity of railway networks

Railway capacity determination and expansion are very important topics. In prior research, the competition between different entities such as train services and train types, on different network corridors however have been ignored, poorly modelled, or else assumed to be static. In response, a comprehensive set of multi-objective models have been formulated in this article to perform a trade-off analysis. These models determine the total absolute capacity of railway networks as the most equitable solution according to a clearly defined set of competing objectives. The models also perform a sensitivity analysis of capacity with respect to those competing objectives. The models have been extensively tested on a case study and their significant worth is shown. The models were solved using a variety of techniques however an adaptive E constraint method was shown to be most superior. In order to identify only the best solution, a Simulated Annealing meta-heuristic was implemented and tested. However a linearization technique based upon separable programming was also developed and shown to be superior in terms of solution quality but far less in terms of computational time.

Capacity determination and expansion models for rail networks

This thesis focused upon the development of improved capacity analysis and capacity planning techniques for railways. A number of innovations were made and were tested on a case study of a real national railway. These techniques can reduce the time required to perform decision making activities that planners and managers need to perform. As all railways need to be expanded to meet increasing demands, the presumption that analytical capacity models can be used to identify how best to improve an existing network at least cost, was fully investigated. Track duplication was the mechanism used to expanding a network's capacity, and two variant capacity expansion models were formulated. Another outcome of this thesis is the development and validation of bi objective models for capacity analysis. These models regulate the competition for track access and perform a trade-off analysis. An opportunity to develop more general mulch-objective approaches was identified.

Hierarchical topological network analysis of anatomical human brain connectivity and differences related to sex and kinship

Modern non-invasive brain imaging technologies, such as diffusion weighted magnetic resonance imaging (DWI), enable the mapping of neural fiber tracts in the white matter, providing a basis to reconstruct a detailed map of brain structural connectivity networks. Brain connectivity networks differ from random networks in their topology, which can be measured using small worldness, modularity, and high-degree nodes (hubs). Still, little is known about how individual differences in structural brain network properties relate to age, sex, or genetic differences. Recently, some groups have reported brain network biomarkers that enable differentiation among individuals, pairs of individuals, and groups of individuals. In addition to studying new topological features, here we provide a unifying general method to investigate topological brain networks and connectivity differences between individuals, pairs of individuals, and groups of individuals at several levels of the data hierarchy, while appropriately controlling false discovery rate (FDR) errors. We apply our new method to a large dataset of high quality brain connectivity networks obtained from High Angular Resolution Diffusion Imaging (HARDI) tractography in 303 young adult twins, siblings, and unrelated people. Our proposed approach can accurately classify brain connectivity networks based on sex (93% accuracy) and kinship (88.5% accuracy). We find statistically significant differences associated with sex and kinship both in the brain connectivity networks and in derived topological metrics, such as the clustering coefficient and the communicability matrix.

Genetics of path lengths in brain connectivity networks: HARDI-based maps in 457 adults

Brain connectivity analyses are increasingly popular for investigating organization. Many connectivity measures including path lengths are generally defined as the number of nodes traversed to connect a node in a graph to the others. Despite its name, path length is purely topological, and does not take into account the physical length of the connections. The distance of the trajectory may also be highly relevant, but is typically overlooked in connectivity analyses. Here we combined genotyping, anatomical MRI and HARDI to understand how our genes influence the cortical connections, using whole-brain tractography. We defined a new measure, based on Dijkstra's algorithm, to compute path lengths for tracts connecting pairs of cortical regions. We compiled these measures into matrices where elements represent the physical distance traveled along tracts. We then analyzed a large cohort of healthy twins and show that our path length measure is reliable, heritable, and influenced even in young adults by the Alzheimer's risk gene, CLU.

Multiple stages classification of Alzheimer’s disease based on structural brain networks using generalized low rank approximations (GLRAM)

To classify each stage for a progressing disease such as Alzheimer’s disease is a key issue for the disease prevention and treatment. In this study, we derived structural brain networks from diffusion-weighted MRI using whole-brain tractography since there is growing interest in relating connectivity measures to clinical, cognitive, and genetic data. Relatively little work has usedmachine learning to make inferences about variations in brain networks in the progression of the Alzheimer’s disease. Here we developed a framework to utilize generalized low rank approximations of matrices (GLRAM) and modified linear discrimination analysis for unsupervised feature learning and classification of connectivity matrices. We apply the methods to brain networks derived from DWI scans of 41 people with Alzheimer’s disease, 73 people with EMCI, 38 people with LMCI, 47 elderly healthy controls and 221 young healthy controls. Our results show that this new framework can significantly improve classification accuracy when combining multiple datasets; this suggests the value of using data beyond the classification task at hand to model variations in brain connectivity.

Studying relationships in project management through social network analysis

Successful project management depends upon forming and maintaining relationships between and among project team members and stakeholder groups. The nature of these relationships and the patterns that they form affect communication, collaboration and resource flows. Networks affect us directly, and we use them to influence people and processes. Social Network Analysis (SNA) can be an extremely valuable research tool to better understand how critical social networks develop and influence work processes, particularly as projects become larger and more complex. This chapter introduces foundational network concepts, helps you determine if SNA could help you answer your research questions, and explains how to design and implement a social network study. At the end of this chapter, the reader can: understand foundational concepts about social networks; decide if SNA is an appropriate research methodology to address particular questions or problems; design and implement a basic social network study.

Integration over song classification replicates: song variant analysis in the hihi

Human expert analyses are commonly used in bioacoustic studies and can potentially limit the reproducibility of these results. In this paper, a machine learning method is presented to statistically classify avian vocalizations. Automated approaches were applied to isolate bird songs from long field recordings, assess song similarities, and classify songs into distinct variants. Because no positive controls were available to assess the true classification of variants, multiple replicates of automatic classification of song variants were analyzed to investigate clustering uncertainty. The automatic classifications were more similar to the expert classifications than expected by chance. Application of these methods demonstrated the presence of discrete song variants in an island population of the New Zealand hihi (Notiomystis cincta). The geographic patterns of song variation were then revealed by integrating over classification replicates. Because this automated approach considers variation in song variant classification, it reduces potential human bias and facilitates the reproducibility of the results.

Topological properties and fractal analysis of a recurrence network constructed from fractional Brownian motions

Many studies have shown that we can gain additional information on time series by investigating their accompanying complex networks. In this work, we investigate the fundamental topological and fractal properties of recurrence networks constructed from fractional Brownian motions (FBMs). First, our results indicate that the constructed recurrence networks have exponential degree distributions; the average degree exponent 〈λ〉 increases first and then decreases with the increase of Hurst index H of the associated FBMs; the relationship between H and 〈λ〉 can be represented by a cubic polynomial function. We next focus on the motif rank distribution of recurrence networks, so that we can better understand networks at the local structure level. We find the interesting superfamily phenomenon, i.e., the recurrence networks with the same motif rank pattern being grouped into two superfamilies. Last, we numerically analyze the fractal and multifractal properties of recurrence networks. We find that the average fractal dimension 〈dB〉 of recurrence networks decreases with the Hurst index H of the associated FBMs, and their dependence approximately satisfies the linear formula 〈dB〉≈2-H, which means that the fractal dimension of the associated recurrence network is close to that of the graph of the FBM. Moreover, our numerical results of multifractal analysis show that the multifractality exists in these recurrence networks, and the multifractality of these networks becomes stronger at first and then weaker when the Hurst index of the associated time series becomes larger from 0.4 to 0.95. In particular, the recurrence network with the Hurst index H=0.5 possesses the strongest multifractality. In addition, the dependence relationships of the average information dimension 〈D(1)〉 and the average correlation dimension 〈D(2)〉 on the Hurst index H can also be fitted well with linear functions. Our results strongly suggest that the recurrence network inherits the basic characteristic and the fractal nature of the associated FBM series.

Frequency response function based damage identification using principal component analysis and pattern recognition technique

Pattern recognition is a promising approach for the identification of structural damage using measured dynamic data. Much of the research on pattern recognition has employed artificial neural networks (ANNs) and genetic algorithms as systematic ways of matching pattern features. The selection of a damage-sensitive and noise-insensitive pattern feature is important for all structural damage identification methods. Accordingly, a neural networks-based damage detection method using frequency response function (FRF) data is presented in this paper. This method can effectively consider uncertainties of measured data from which training patterns are generated. The proposed method reduces the dimension of the initial FRF data and transforms it into new damage indices and employs an ANN method for the actual damage localization and quantification using recognized damage patterns from the algorithm. In civil engineering applications, the measurement of dynamic response under field conditions always contains noise components from environmental factors. In order to evaluate the performance of the proposed strategy with noise polluted data, noise contaminated measurements are also introduced to the proposed algorithm. ANNs with optimal architecture give minimum training and testing errors and provide precise damage detection results. In order to maximize damage detection results, the optimal architecture of ANN is identified by defining the number of hidden layers and the number of neurons per hidden layer by a trial and error method. In real testing, the number of measurement points and the measurement locations to obtain the structure response are critical for damage detection. Therefore, optimal sensor placement to improve damage identification is also investigated herein. A finite element model of a two storey framed structure is used to train the neural network. It shows accurate performance and gives low error with simulated and noise-contaminated data for single and multiple damage cases. As a result, the proposed method can be used for structural health monitoring and damage detection, particularly for cases where the measurement data is very large. Furthermore, it is suggested that an optimal ANN architecture can detect damage occurrence with good accuracy and can provide damage quantification with reasonable accuracy under varying levels of damage.

Potential uses of Bayesian networks as tools for synthesis of systematic reviews of complex interventions

Bayesian networks (BNs) are tools for representing expert knowledge or evidence. They are especially useful for synthesising evidence or belief concerning a complex intervention, assessing the sensitivity of outcomes to different situations or contextual frameworks and framing decision problems that involve alternative types of intervention. Bayesian networks are useful extensions to logic maps when initiating a review or to facilitate synthesis and bridge the gap between evidence acquisition and decision-making. Formal elicitation techniques allow development of BNs on the basis of expert opinion. Such applications are useful alternatives to ‘empty’ reviews, which identify knowledge gaps but fail to support decision-making. Where review evidence exists, it can inform the development of a BN. We illustrate the construction of a BN using a motivating example that demonstrates how BNs can ensure coherence, transparently structure the problem addressed by a complex intervention and assess sensitivity to context, all of which are critical components of robust reviews of complex interventions. We suggest that BNs should be utilised to routinely synthesise reviews of complex interventions or empty reviews where decisions must be made despite poor evidence.

Performance analysis of secure unified communications in the VMware-based cloud

Unified communications as a service (UCaaS) can be regarded as a cost-effective model for on-demand delivery of unified communications services in the cloud. However, addressing security concerns has been seen as the biggest challenge to the adoption of IT services in the cloud. This study set up a cloud system via VMware suite to emulate hosting unified communications (UC), the integration of two or more real time communication systems, services in the cloud in a laboratory environment. An Internet Protocol Security (IPSec) gateway was also set up to support network-level security for UCaaS against possible security exposures. This study was aimed at analysis of an implementation of UCaaS over IPSec and evaluation of the latency of encrypted UC traffic while protecting that traffic. Our test results show no latency while IPSec is implemented with a G.711 audio codec. However, the performance of the G.722 audio codec with an IPSec implementation affects the overall performance of the UC server. These results give technical advice and guidance to those involved in security controls in UC security on premises as well as in the cloud.

Comparative analysis of traffic state estimation ─ Cumulative counts-based and trajectory-based methods

The Macroscopic Fundamental Diagram (MFD) relates space-mean density and flow. Since the MFD represents the area-wide network traffic performance, studies on perimeter control strategies and network-wide traffic state estimation utilising the MFD concept have been reported. Most previous works have utilised data from fixed sensors, such as inductive loops, to estimate the MFD, which can cause biased estimation in urban networks due to queue spillovers at intersections. To overcome the limitation, recent literature reports the use of trajectory data obtained from probe vehicles. However, these studies have been conducted using simulated datasets; limited works have discussed the limitations of real datasets and their impact on the variable estimation. This study compares two methods for estimating traffic state variables of signalised arterial sections: a method based on cumulative vehicle counts (CUPRITE), and one based on vehicles’ trajectory from taxi Global Positioning System (GPS) log. The comparisons reveal some characteristics of taxi trajectory data available in Brisbane, Australia. The current trajectory data have limitations in quantity (i.e., the penetration rate), due to which the traffic state variables tend to be underestimated. Nevertheless, the trajectory-based method successfully captures the features of traffic states, which suggests that the trajectories from taxis can be a good estimator for the network-wide traffic states.

An analysis of TLS handshake proxying

Content delivery networks (CDNs) are an essential component of modern website infrastructures: edge servers located closer to users cache content, increasing robustness and capacity while decreasing latency. However, this situation becomes complicated for HTTPS content that is to be delivered using the Transport Layer Security (TLS) protocol: the edge server must be able to carry out TLS handshakes for the cached domain. Most commercial CDNs require that the domain owner give their certificate's private key to the CDN's edge server or abandon caching of HTTPS content entirely. We examine the security and performance of a recently commercialized delegation technique in which the domain owner retains possession of their private key and splits the TLS state machine geographically with the edge server using a private key proxy service. This allows the domain owner to limit the amount of trust given to the edge server while maintaining the benefits of CDN caching. On the performance front, we find that latency is slightly worse compared to the insecure approach, but still significantly better than the domain owner serving the content directly. On the security front, we enumerate the security goals for TLS handshake proxying and identify a subtle difference between the security of RSA key transport and signed-Diffie--Hellman in TLS handshake proxying; we also discuss timing side channel resistance of the key server and the effect of TLS session resumption.

Predicting the temporal response of seagrass meadows to dredging using Dynamic Bayesian Networks

Predicting temporal responses of ecosystems to disturbances associated with industrial activities is critical for their management and conservation. However, prediction of ecosystem responses is challenging due to the complexity and potential non-linearities stemming from interactions between system components and multiple environmental drivers. Prediction is particularly difficult for marine ecosystems due to their often highly variable and complex natures and large uncertainties surrounding their dynamic responses. Consequently, current management of such systems often rely on expert judgement and/or complex quantitative models that consider only a subset of the relevant ecological processes. Hence there exists an urgent need for the development of whole-of-systems predictive models to support decision and policy makers in managing complex marine systems in the context of industry based disturbances. This paper presents Dynamic Bayesian Networks (DBNs) for predicting the temporal response of a marine ecosystem to anthropogenic disturbances. The DBN provides a visual representation of the problem domain in terms of factors (parts of the ecosystem) and their relationships. These relationships are quantified via Conditional Probability Tables (CPTs), which estimate the variability and uncertainty in the distribution of each factor. The combination of qualitative visual and quantitative elements in a DBN facilitates the integration of a wide array of data, published and expert knowledge and other models. Such multiple sources are often essential as one single source of information is rarely sufficient to cover the diverse range of factors relevant to a management task. Here, a DBN model is developed for tropical, annual Halophila and temperate, persistent Amphibolis seagrass meadows to inform dredging management and help meet environmental guidelines. Specifically, the impacts of capital (e.g. new port development) and maintenance (e.g. maintaining channel depths in established ports) dredging is evaluated with respect to the risk of permanent loss, defined as no recovery within 5 years (Environmental Protection Agency guidelines). The model is developed using expert knowledge, existing literature, statistical models of environmental light, and experimental data. The model is then demonstrated in a case study through the analysis of a variety of dredging, environmental and seagrass ecosystem recovery scenarios. In spatial zones significantly affected by dredging, such as the zone of moderate impact, shoot density has a very high probability of being driven to zero by capital dredging due to the duration of such dredging. Here, fast growing Halophila species can recover, however, the probability of recovery depends on the presence of seed banks. On the other hand, slow growing Amphibolis meadows have a high probability of suffering permanent loss. However, in the maintenance dredging scenario, due to the shorter duration of dredging, Amphibolis is better able to resist the impacts of dredging. For both types of seagrass meadows, the probability of loss was strongly dependent on the biological and ecological status of the meadow, as well as environmental conditions post-dredging. The ability to predict the ecosystem response under cumulative, non-linear interactions across a complex ecosystem highlights the utility of DBNs for decision support and environmental management.

Using Bayesian networks to model surveillance in complex plant and animal health systems

In this chapter we consider biosecurity surveillance as part of a complex system comprising many different biological, environmental and human factors and their interactions. Modelling and analysis of surveillance strategies should take into account these complexities, and also facilitate the use and integration of the many types of different information that can provide insight into the system as a whole. After a brief discussion of a range of options, we focus on Bayesian networks for representing such complex systems. We summarize the features of Bayesian networks and describe these in the context of surveillance.