Gittins indices and constrained allocation in clinical trials

We explore the use of Gittins indices to search for near optimality in sequential clinical trials. Some adaptive allocation rules are proposed to achieve the following two objectives as far as possible: (i) to reduce the expected successes lost, (ii) to minimize the error probability at the end. Simulation results indicate the merits of the rules based on Gittins indices for small trial sizes. The rules are generalized to the case when neither of the response densities is known. Asymptotic optimality is derived for the constrained rules. A simple allocation rule is recommended for one-stage models. The simulation results indicate that it works better than both equal allocation and Bather's randomized allocation. We conclude with a discussion of possible further developments.

Structural and functional characterization of dendritic arbors and GABAergic synaptic inputs on interneurons and principal cells in the rat basolateral amygdala

The basolateral amygdala (BLA) is a complex brain region associated with processing emotional states, such as fear, anxiety, and stress. Some aspects of these emotional states are driven by the network activity of synaptic connections, derived from both local circuitry and projections to the BLA from other regions. Although the synaptic physiology and general morphological characteristics are known for many individual cell types within the BLA, the combination of morphological, electrophysiological, and distribution of neurochemical GABAergic synapses in a three-dimensional neuronal arbor has not been reported for single neurons from this region. The aim of this study was to assess differences in morphological characteristics of BLA principal cells and interneurons, quantify the distribution of GABAergic neurochemical synapses within the entire neuronal arbor of each cell type, and determine whether GABAergic synaptic density correlates with electrophysiological recordings of inhibitory postsynaptic currents. We show that BLA principal neurons form complex dendritic arborizations, with proximal dendrites having fewer spines but higher densities of neurochemical GABAergic synapses compared with distal dendrites. Furthermore, we found that BLA interneurons exhibited reduced dendritic arbor lengths and spine densities but had significantly higher densities of putative GABAergic synapses compared with principal cells, which was correlated with an increased frequency of spontaneous inhibitory postsynaptic currents. The quantification of GABAergic connectivity, in combination with morphological and electrophysiological measurements of the BLA cell types, is the first step toward a greater understanding of how fear and stress lead to changes in morphology, local connectivity, and/or synaptic reorganization of the BLA.

Defining the density debate in Brisbane: how urban consolidation is represented in the media

Rapid population growth, changing demographic profiles and increased focus on sustainable urban form has led to significant changes in settlement patterns in Australian cities. Growth management strategies are increasingly employed to help cities manage strain on infrastructure, housing and ecosystems. Urban consolidation is one such strategy and has been adopted by all Australian capital cities. Despite strong governmental support, urban consolidation has triggered much academic debate and has often been accompanied by staunch community opposition and complaints from the development industry about barriers to the provision of higher density housing. Greater understanding of stakeholder representations of higher density housing is important for planning, given the strong policy focus on urban consolidation nationally. This paper contributes to existing urban consolidation literature by empirically demonstrating how urban consolidation is represented in Brisbane’s newspaper media through the use of metaphors. Its conceptual departure point is Social Representations Theory, drawing on the theory’s notion of objectification to illustrate how the media translates the abstract notion of urban consolidation into a tangible and understandable object. The objectification of urban consolidation is identified and discussed relative to four themes: land use conflict; growth; neighbourhood change and apartment living. This paper argues that understanding stakeholder representations is important for planners seeking to promote and negotiate delivery of higher density development. It concludes that stakeholder representations can highlight key areas of contention to be addressed by planners, provide indications on the likelihood of public acceptance of increased housing densities and delineate the boundaries of urban consolidation debates.

Shaping urban consolidation debates: Social representations in Brisbane newspaper media

Recent international trends towards urban consolidation, intended to reduce outward urban sprawl by concentrating growth within existing neighbourhoods, can cause contention in cities. Understanding how the mass media represents urban consolidation can lead to more informed and democratic planning practices. This paper employs Social Representations Theory to identify and understand representations of urban consolidation in newspaper media. The theory recognises that the media is a key purveyor of public discourse and can reflect, shape or suppress ideas circulating in society. This novel approach has not previously been applied to understanding social representations of urban consolidation strategies in the mass media. The rapidly growing and changing city of Brisbane, Australia, is utilised as a case study. Brisbane is situated in South East Queensland, the fastest growing region in Australia, and is governed by regional and local planning policies that strongly support increased densities in existing urban areas. Findings from a quantitative textual analysis of 449 articles published in Brisbane newspapers between 2007 and 2014 reveal key clusters and classes of co-occurring words that represent dominant social representations apparent in the newspaper corpus. The paper provides two key conclusions. The first is that social representations occurring in mass media represent an important source of information about ‘common sense’ understandings and evaluations of urban consolidation debates. The second is that urban consolidation is represented as a ultifaceted issue, including interrelated themes of housing,sustainable population growth, investment strategies and the interplay between politics and planning

Fine-tuning of unmanned aerial surveillance for ecological systems

Much of our understanding and management of ecological processes requires knowledge of the distribution and abundance of species. Reliable abundance or density estimates are essential for managing both threatened and invasive populations, yet are often challenging to obtain. Recent and emerging technological advances, particularly in unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs), provide exciting opportunities to overcome these challenges in ecological surveillance. UAVs can provide automated, cost-effective surveillance and offer repeat surveys for pest incursions at an invasion front. They can capitalise on manoeuvrability and advanced imagery options to detect species that are cryptic due to behaviour, life-history or inaccessible habitat. UAVs may also cause less disturbance, in magnitude and duration, for sensitive fauna than other survey methods such as transect counting by humans or sniffer dogs. The surveillance approach depends upon the particular ecological context and the objective. For example, animal, plant and microbial target species differ in their movement, spread and observability. Lag-times may exist between a pest species presence at a site and its detectability, prompting a need for repeat surveys. Operationally, however, the frequency and coverage of UAV surveys may be limited by financial and other constraints, leading to errors in estimating species occurrence or density. We use simulation modelling to investigate how movement ecology should influence fine-scale decisions regarding ecological surveillance using UAVs. Movement and dispersal parameter choices allow contrasts between locally mobile but slow-dispersing populations, and species that are locally more static but invasive at the landscape scale. We find that low and slow UAV flights may offer the best monitoring strategy to predict local population densities in transects, but that the consequent reduction in overall area sampled may sacrifice the ability to reliably predict regional population density. Alternative flight plans may perform better, but this is also dependent on movement ecology and the magnitude of relative detection errors for different flight choices. Simulated investigations such as this will become increasingly useful to reveal how spatio-temporal extent and resolution of UAV monitoring should be adjusted to reduce observation errors and thus provide better population estimates, maximising the efficacy and efficiency of unmanned aerial surveys.

Prolonged consumption of sucrose in a binge-like manner, alters the morphology of medium spiny neurons in the nucleus accumbens shell

The modern diet has become highly sweetened, resulting in unprecedented levels of sugar consumption, particularly among adolescents. While chronic long-term sugar intake is known to contribute to the development of metabolic disorders including obesity and type II diabetes, little is known regarding the direct consequences of long-term, binge-like sugar consumption on the brain. Because sugar can cause the release of dopamine in the nucleus accumbens (NAc) similarly to drugs of abuse, we investigated changes in the morphology of neurons in this brain region following short- (4 weeks) and long-term (12 weeks) binge-like sucrose consumption using an intermittent two-bottle choice paradigm. We used Golgi-Cox staining to impregnate medium spiny neurons (MSNs) from the NAc core and shell of short- and long-term sucrose consuming rats and compared these to age-matched water controls. We show that prolonged binge-like sucrose consumption significantly decreased the total dendritic length of NAc shell MSNs compared to age-matched control rats. We also found that the restructuring of these neurons resulted primarily from reduced distal dendritic complexity. Conversely, we observed increased spine densities at the distal branch orders of NAc shell MSNs from long-term sucrose consuming rats. Combined, these results highlight the neuronal effects of prolonged binge-like intake of sucrose on NAc shell MSN morphology.

Electrochemical properties and intermediate-temperature fuel cell performance of dense yttrium-doped barium zirconate with calcium addition

Although BaZr 0.8Y 0.2O 3-δ(BZY) possesses large bulk proton conductivity and excellent chemical stability, its poor sinterability and grain boundaries block proton conduction. In this work, the effect of Ca as a co-dopant and as a sintering aid (as CaO), on the sinterability, proton conductivity, and fuel cell performance of BZY was investigated. The addition of 4 mol% CaO significantly improved the BZY sinterability: BZY pellets with densities of 92.7% and 97.5% with respect to the theoretical density were obtained after sintering at 1500°C and 1600°C, respectively. The improved BZY sinterability by CaO addition resulted also in a large proton conductivity; at 600°C, the total conductivity of BZY-CaO was 2.14 × 10 -3 S/cm, in wet Ar. Anode-supported fuel cells with 25 μm-thick BZY-CaO electrolyte membranes were fabricated by a dual-layer co-firing technique. The peak power density of the fuel cell with a BZY-Ni/BZY-4CaO/BZY-LSCF (La 0.6Sr 0.4Fe 0.8Co 0.2O 3-δ) configuration was 141 mW/cm 2 at 700°C, several times larger than the reported values of BZY electrolyte membrane fuel cells sintered with the addition of CuO or ZnO, demonstrating promising features for practical fuel cell applications.

Modeling transport through an environment crowded by a mixture of obstacles of different shapes and sizes

Many biological environments are crowded by macromolecules, organelles and cells which can impede the transport of other cells and molecules. Previous studies have sought to describe these effects using either random walk models or fractional order diffusion equations. Here we examine the transport of both a single agent and a population of agents through an environment containing obstacles of varying size and shape, whose relative densities are drawn from a specified distribution. Our simulation results for a single agent indicate that smaller obstacles are more effective at retarding transport than larger obstacles; these findings are consistent with our simulations of the collective motion of populations of agents. In an attempt to explore whether these kinds of stochastic random walk simulations can be described using a fractional order diffusion equation framework, we calibrate the solution of such a differential equation to our averaged agent density information. Our approach suggests that these kinds of commonly used differential equation models ought to be used with care since we are unable to match the solution of a fractional order diffusion equation to our data in a consistent fashion over a finite time period.

Heritability of the network architecture of intrinsic brain functional connectivity

The brain's functional network exhibits many features facilitating functional specialization, integration, and robustness to attack. Using graph theory to characterize brain networks, studies demonstrate their small-world, modular, and "rich-club" properties, with deviations reported in many common neuropathological conditions. Here we estimate the heritability of five widely used graph theoretical metrics (mean clustering coefficient (γ), modularity (Q), rich-club coefficient (ϕnorm), global efficiency (λ), small-worldness (σ)) over a range of connection densities (k=5-25%) in a large cohort of twins (N=592, 84 MZ and 89 DZ twin pairs, 246 single twins, age 23±2.5). We also considered the effects of global signal regression (GSR). We found that the graph metrics were moderately influenced by genetic factors h2 (γ=47-59%, Q=38-59%, ϕnorm=0-29%, λ=52-64%, σ=51-59%) at lower connection densities (≤15%), and when global signal regression was implemented, heritability estimates decreased substantially h2 (γ=0-26%, Q=0-28%, ϕnorm=0%, λ=23-30%, σ=0-27%). Distinct network features were phenotypically correlated (|r|=0.15-0.81), and γ, Q, and λ were found to be influenced by overlapping genetic factors. Our findings suggest that these metrics may be potential endophenotypes for psychiatric disease and suitable for genetic association studies, but that genetic effects must be interpreted with respect to methodological choices.