Utilising Reliability and Condition Monitoring Data for Asset Health Prognosis

The ability to forecast machinery health is vital to reducing maintenance costs, operation downtime and safety hazards. Recent advances in condition monitoring technologies have given rise to a number of prognostic models which attempt to forecast machinery health based on condition data such as vibration measurements. This paper demonstrates how the population characteristics and condition monitoring data (both complete and suspended) of historical items can be integrated for training an intelligent agent to predict asset health multiple steps ahead. The model consists of a feed-forward neural network whose training targets are asset survival probabilities estimated using a variation of the Kaplan–Meier estimator and a degradation-based failure probability density function estimator. The trained network is capable of estimating the future survival probabilities when a series of asset condition readings are inputted. The output survival probabilities collectively form an estimated survival curve. Pump data from a pulp and paper mill were used for model validation and comparison. The results indicate that the proposed model can predict more accurately as well as further ahead than similar models which neglect population characteristics and suspended data. This work presents a compelling concept for longer-range fault prognosis utilising available information more fully and accurately.

A known-groups evaluation of the Response Bias Scale in a neuropsychological setting

We evaluated the Minnesota Multiphasic Personality Inventory-Second Edition (MMPI-2) Response Bias Scale (RBS). Archival data from 83 individuals who were referred for neuropsychological assessment with no formal diagnosis (n = 10), following a known or suspected traumatic brain injury (n = 36), with a psychiatric diagnosis (n = 20), or with a history of both trauma and a psychiatric condition (n = 17) were retrieved. The criteria for malingered neurocognitive dysfunction (MNCD) were applied, and two groups of participants were formed: poor effort (n = 15) and genuine responders (n = 68). Consistent with previous studies, the difference in scores between groups was greatest for the RBS (d = 2.44), followed by two established MMPI-2 validity scales, F (d = 0.25) and K (d = 0.23), and strong significant correlations were found between RBS and F (rs = .48) and RBS and K (r = −.41). When MNCD group membership was predicted using logistic regression, the RBS failed to add incrementally to F. In a separate regression to predict group membership, K added significantly to the RBS. Receiver-operating curve analysis revealed a nonsignificant area under the curve statistic, and at the ideal cutoff in this sample of >12, specificity was moderate (.79), sensitivity was low (.47), and positive and negative predictive power values at a 13% base rate were .25 and .91, respectively. Although the results of this study require replication because of a number of limitations, this study has made an important first attempt to report RBS classification accuracy statistics for predicting poor effort at a range of base rates.

An evolutionary computation approach to three-dimensional path planning for unmanned aerial vehicles with tactical and kinematic constraints

This paper presents a novel evolutionary computation approach to three-dimensional path planning for unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) with tactical and kinematic constraints. A genetic algorithm (GA) is modified and extended for path planning. Two GAs are seeded at the initial and final positions with a common objective to minimise their distance apart under given UAV constraints. This is accomplished by the synchronous optimisation of subsequent control vectors. The proposed evolutionary computation approach is called synchronous genetic algorithm (SGA). The sequence of control vectors generated by the SGA constitutes to a near-optimal path plan. The resulting path plan exhibits no discontinuity when transitioning from curve to straight trajectories. Experiments and results show that the paths generated by the SGA are within 2% of the optimal solution. Such a path planner when implemented on a hardware accelerator, such as field programmable gate array chips, can be used in the UAV as on-board replanner, as well as in ground station systems for assisting in high precision planning and modelling of mission scenarios.

Polycaprolactone-based scaffold plus recombinant human bone morphogenic protein rhBMP-2) in a sheep thoracic spine fusion model

Adolescent idiopathic scoliosis is a complex three dimensional deformity affecting 2-3% of the general population. The resulting spinal deformity consists of coronal curvature, hypokyphosis of the thoracic spine and vertebral rotation in the axial plane with posterior elements turned into the curve concavity. The potential for curve progression is heightened during the adolescent growth spurt. Success of scoliosis deformity correction depends on solid bony fusion between adjacent vertebrae after the intervertebral (IV) discs have been surgically cleared and the disc spaces filled with graft material. Recently a bioactive and resorbable scaffold fabricated from medical grade polycaprolactone has been developed for bone regeneration at load bearing sites. Combined with rhBMP-2, this has been shown to be successful in acting as a bone graft substitute in a porcine lumbar interbody fusion model when compared to autologous bone graft alone. The study aimed to establish a large animal thoracic spine interbody fusion model, develop spine biodegradable scaffolds (PCL) in combination with biologics (rhBMP-2) and to establish a platform for research into spine tissue engineering constructs. Preliminary results demonstrate higher grades of radiologically evident bony fusion across all levels when comparing fusion scores between the 3 and 6 month postop groups at the PCL CaP coated scaffold level, which is observed to be a similar grade to autograft, while no fusion is seen at the scaffold only level. Results to date suggest that the combination of rhBMP-2 and scaffold engineering actively promotes bone formation, laying the basis of a viable tissue engineered constructs.

Biomechanical performance of polycaprolactone (PCL)-based scaffold with rhBMP-2 in a sheep thoracic spine fusion model

Adolescent idiopathic scoliosis is a complex three dimensional deformity affecting 2-3% of the general population. Resulting spine deformities include progressive coronal curvature, hypokyphosis, or frank lordosis in the thoracic spine and vertebral rotation in the axial plane with posterior elements turned into the curve concavity. The potential for curve progression is heightened during the adolescent growth spurt. Success of scoliosis deformity correction depends on solid bony fusion between adjacent vertebrae after the intervertebral discs have been surgically cleared and the disc spaces filled with graft material. Problems with bone graft harvest site morbidity as well as limited bone availability have led to the search for bone graft substitutes. Recently, a bioactive and resorbable scaffold fabricated from medical grade polycaprolactone (PCL) has been developed for bone regeneration at load bearing sites. Combined with recombinant human bone morphogenic protein–2 (rhBMP-2), this has been shown to be successful in acting as a bone graft substitute in acting as a bone graft substitute in a porcine lumbar interbody fusion model when compared to autologous bone graft. This in vivo sheep study intends to evaluate the suitability of a custom designed medical grade PCL scaffold in combination with rhBMP-2 as a bone graft substitute in the setting of mini–thoracotomy surgery as a platform for ongoing research to benefit patients with adolescent idiopathic scoliosis.

Numerical modelling and full scale testing of load bearing steel walls under real fires

Fire safety has become an important part in structural design due to the ever increasing loss of properties and lives during fires. Fire rating of load bearing wall systems made of Light gauge Steel Frames (LSF) is determined using fire tests based on the standard time-temperature curve given in ISO 834. However, modern residential buildings make use of thermoplastic materials, which mean considerably high fuel loads. Hence a detailed fire research study into the performance of load bearing LSF walls was undertaken using a series of realistic design fire curves developed based on Eurocode parametric curves and Barnett’s BFD curves. It included both full scale fire tests and numerical studies of LSF walls without any insulation, and the recently developed externally insulated composite panels. This paper presents the details of fire tests first, and then the numerical models of tested LSF wall studs. It shows that suitable finite element models can be developed to predict the fire rating of load bearing walls under real fire conditions. The paper also describes the structural and fire performances of externally insulated LSF walls in comparison to the non-insulated walls under real fires, and highlights the effects of standard and real fire curves on fire performance of LSF walls.

Feasibility of agent-based modelling of articular cartilage including a conceptual representation of its structure

Articular cartilage is a complex structure with an architecture in which fluid-swollen proteoglycans constrained within a 3D network of collagen fibrils. Because of the complexity of the cartilage structure, the relationship between its mechanical behaviours at the macroscale level and its components at the micro-scale level are not completely understood. The research objective in this thesis is to create a new model of articular cartilage that can be used to simulate and obtain insight into the micro-macro-interaction and mechanisms underlying its mechanical responses during physiological function. The new model of articular cartilage has two characteristics, namely: i) not use fibre-reinforced composite material idealization ii) Provide a framework for that it does probing the micro mechanism of the fluid-solid interaction underlying the deformation of articular cartilage using simple rules of repartition instead of constitutive / physical laws and intuitive curve-fitting. Even though there are various microstructural and mechanical behaviours that can be studied, the scope of this thesis is limited to osmotic pressure formation and distribution and their influence on cartilage fluid diffusion and percolation, which in turn governs the deformation of the compression-loaded tissue. The study can be divided into two stages. In the first stage, the distributions and concentrations of proteoglycans, collagen and water were investigated using histological protocols. Based on this, the structure of cartilage was conceptualised as microscopic osmotic units that consist of these constituents that were distributed according to histological results. These units were repeated three-dimensionally to form the structural model of articular cartilage. In the second stage, cellular automata were incorporated into the resulting matrix (lattice) to simulate the osmotic pressure of the fluid and the movement of water within and out of the matrix; following the osmotic pressure gradient in accordance with the chosen rule of repartition of the pressure. The outcome of this study is the new model of articular cartilage that can be used to simulate and study the micromechanical behaviours of cartilage under different conditions of health and loading. These behaviours are illuminated at the microscale level using the socalled neighbourhood rules developed in the thesis in accordance with the typical requirements of cellular automata modelling. Using these rules and relevant Boundary Conditions to simulate pressure distribution and related fluid motion produced significant results that provided the following insight into the relationships between osmotic pressure gradient and associated fluid micromovement, and the deformation of the matrix. For example, it could be concluded that: 1. It is possible to model articular cartilage with the agent-based model of cellular automata and the Margolus neighbourhood rule. 2. The concept of 3D inter connected osmotic units is a viable structural model for the extracellular matrix of articular cartilage. 3. Different rules of osmotic pressure advection lead to different patterns of deformation in the cartilage matrix, enabling an insight into how this micromechanism influences macromechanical deformation. 4. When features such as transition coefficient were changed, permeability (representing change) is altered due to the change in concentrations of collagen, proteoglycans (i.e. degenerative conditions), the deformation process is impacted. 5. The boundary conditions also influence the relationship between osmotic pressure gradient and fluid movement at the micro-scale level. The outcomes are important to cartilage research since we can use these to study the microscale damage in the cartilage matrix. From this, we are able to monitor related diseases and their progression leading to potential insight into drug-cartilage interaction for treatment. This innovative model is an incremental progress on attempts at creating further computational modelling approaches to cartilage research and other fluid-saturated tissues and material systems.

Morphology-based model for predicting osteocyte-like cell line (MLO-Y4) growth process

This work has led to the development of empirical mathematical models to quantitatively predicate the changes of morphology in osteocyte-like cell lines (MLO-Y4) in culture. MLO-Y4 cells were cultured at low density and the changes in morphology recorded over 11 hours. Cell area and three dimensional shape features including aspect ratio, circularity and solidity were then determined using widely accepted image analysis software (ImageJTM). Based on the data obtained from the imaging analysis, mathematical models were developed using the non-linear regression method. The developed mathematical models accurately predict the morphology of MLO-Y4 cells for different culture times and can, therefore, be used as a reference model for analyzing MLO-Y4 cell morphology changes within various biological/mechanical studies, as necessary.

Saturated core high-temperature superconducting fault current limiters as an alternative to conventional series reactors in a distribution grid

Series reactors are used in distribution grids to reduce the short-circuit fault level. Some of the disadvantages of the application of these devices are the voltage drop produced across the reactor and the steep front rise of the transient recovery voltage (TRV), which generally exceeds the rating of the associated circuit breaker. Simulations were performed to compare the characteristics of a saturated core High-Temperature Superconducting Fault Current Limiter (HTS FCL) and a series reactor. The design of the HTS FCL was optimized using the evolutionary algorithm. The resulting Pareto frontier curve of optimum solution is presented in this paper. The results show that the steady-state impedance of an HTS FCL is significantly lower than that of a series reactor for the same level of fault current limiting. Tests performed on a prototype 11 kV HTS FCL confirm the theoretical results. The respective transient recovery voltages (TRV) of the HTS FCL and an air core reactor of comparable fault current limiting capability are also determined. The results show that the saturated core HTS FCL has a significantly lower effect on the rate of rise of the circuit breaker TRV as compared to the air core reactor. The simulations results are validated with shortcircuit test results.

Early-mid Cretaceous tectonic evolution of eastern Gondwana : from silicic LIP magmatism to continental rupture

The Early–mid Cretaceous marks the confluence of three major continental-scale events in eastern Gondwana: (1) the emplacement of a Silicic Large Igneous Province (LIP) near the continental margin; (2) the volcaniclastic fill, transgression and regression of a major epicontinental seaway developed over at least a quarter of the Australian continent; and (3) epeirogenic uplift, exhumation and continental rupturing culminating in the opening of the Tasman Basin c. 84 Ma. The Whitsunday Silicic LIP event had widespread impact, producing both substantial extrusive volumes of dominantly silicic pyroclastic material and coeval first-cycle volcanogenic sediment that accumulated within many eastern Australian sedimentary basins, and principally in the Great Australian Basin system (>2 Mkm3 combined volume). The final pulse of volcanism and volcanogenic sedimentation at c. 105–95 Ma coincided with epicontinental seaway regression, which shows a lack of correspondence with the global sea-level curve, and alternatively records a wider, continental-scale effect of volcanism and rift tectonism. Widespread igneous underplating related to this LIP event is evident from high paleogeothermal gradients and regional hydrothermal fluid flow detectable in the shallow crust and over a broad region. Enhanced CO2 fluxing through sedimentary basins also records indirectly, large-scale, LIP-related mafic underplating. A discrete episode of rapid crustal cooling and exhumation began c. 100–90 Ma along the length of the eastern Australian margin, related to an enhanced phase of continental rifting that was largely amagmatic, and probably a switch from wide–more narrow rift modes. Along-margin variations in detachment fault architecture produced narrow (SE Australia) and wide continental margins with marginal, submerged continental plateaux (NE Australia). Long-lived NE-trending cross-orogen lineaments controlled the switch from narrow to wide continental margin geometries.

Application of TG-FTIR to study SO2 evolved during the thermal decomposition of coal-derived pyrite

The thermal decomposition of the coal-derived pyrite was studied using thermogravimetry combining with Fourier-transform infrared spectroscopy (TG-FTIR) techniques to gain knowledge on the SO2 gas evolution process and formation mechanism during the thermal decomposition of the coal-derived pyrite. The results showed that the thermal decomposition of the coal-derived pyrite which started at about 400 ◦C was complete at 600 ◦C; the gas evolved can be established by combining the DTG peak, the Gram–Schmidt curve and in situ FTIR spectroscopic evolved gas analysis. It can be observed from the spectra that the pyrolysis products for the sample mainly vary in quantity, but not in species. It was proposed that the oxidation of the coal-derived pyrite started at about 400 ◦C and that pyrrhotite and hematite were formed as primary products. The SO2 released by the thermal decomposition of the coal-derived pyrite mainly occurred in the first pyrolysis stage between 410 and 470 ◦C with the maximum rate at 444 ◦C. Furthermore, the SO2 gas evolution and formation mechanism during the thermal decomposition of the coal-derived pyrite has been proposed.

Bubble extinction in Hele-Shaw flow with surface tension and kinetic undercooling regularisation

We perform an analytic and numerical study of an inviscid contracting bubble in a two-dimensional Hele-Shaw cell, where the effects of both surface tension and kinetic undercooling on the moving bubble boundary are not neglected. In contrast to expanding bubbles, in which both boundary effects regularise the ill-posedness arising from the viscous (Saffman-Taylor) instability, we show that in contracting bubbles the two boundary effects are in competition, with surface tension stabilising the boundary, and kinetic undercooling destabilising it. This competition leads to interesting bifurcation behaviour in the asymptotic shape of the bubble in the limit it approaches extinction. In this limit, the boundary may tend to become either circular, or approach a line or "slit" of zero thickness, depending on the initial condition and the value of a nondimensional surface tension parameter. We show that over a critical range of surface tension values, both these asymptotic shapes are stable. In this regime there exists a third, unstable branch of limiting self-similar bubble shapes, with an asymptotic aspect ratio (dependent on the surface tension) between zero and one. We support our asymptotic analysis with a numerical scheme that utilises the applicability of complex variable theory to Hele-Shaw flow.

Numerical studies of load bearing LSF walls under realistic design fire conditions

Fire safety of light gauge steel frame (LSF) stud walls is important in the design of buildings. Currently LSF walls are increasingly used in the building industry, and are usually made of cold-formed and thin-walled steel studs that are fire-protected by two layers of plasterboard on both sides. Many experimental and numerical studies have been undertaken to investigate the fire performance of load bearing LSF walls under standard fire conditions. However, the standard time-temperature curve does not represent the fire load present in typical residential and commercial buildings that include considerable amount of thermoplastic materials. Real building fires are unlikely to follow a standard time-temperature curve. However, only limited research has been undertaken to investigate the fire performance of load bearing LSF walls under realistic design fire conditions. Therefore in this research, finite element thermal models of the traditional LSF wall panels without cavity insulation and the new LSF composite wall panels were developed to simulate their fire performance under recently developed realistic design fire curves. Suitable thermal properties were proposed for plasterboards and insulations based on laboratory tests and literature review. The developed models were then validated by comparing their thermal performance results with available results from realistic design fire tests, and were later used in parametric studies. This paper presents the details of the developed finite element thermal models of load bearing LSF wall panels under realistic design fire time-temperature curves and the re-sults. It shows that finite element thermal models can be used to predict the fire performance of load bearing LSF walls with varying configurations of insulations and plasterboards under realistic design fires. Failure times of load bearing LSF walls were also predicted based on the results from finite element thermal analyses.

Damage assessment in reinforced concrete flexural members using modal strain energy based method

Damage assessment (damage detection, localization and quantification) in structures and appropriate retrofitting will enable the safe and efficient function of the structures. In this context, many Vibration Based Damage Identification Techniques (VBDIT) have emerged with potential for accurate damage assessment. VBDITs have achieved significant research interest in recent years, mainly due to their non-destructive nature and ability to assess inaccessible and invisible damage locations. Damage Index (DI) methods are also vibration based, but they are not based on the structural model. DI methods are fast and inexpensive compared to the model-based methods and have the ability to automate the damage detection process. DI method analyses the change in vibration response of the structure between two states so that the damage can be identified. Extensive research has been carried out to apply the DI method to assess damage in steel structures. Comparatively, there has been very little research interest in the use of DI methods to assess damage in Reinforced Concrete (RC) structures due to the complexity of simulating the predominant damage type, the flexural crack. Flexural cracks in RC beams distribute non- linearly and propagate along all directions. Secondary cracks extend more rapidly along the longitudinal and transverse directions of a RC structure than propagation of existing cracks in the depth direction due to stress distribution caused by the tensile reinforcement. Simplified damage simulation techniques (such as reductions in the modulus or section depth or use of rotational spring elements) that have been extensively used with research on steel structures, cannot be applied to simulate flexural cracks in RC elements. This highlights a big gap in knowledge and as a consequence VBDITs have not been successfully applied to damage assessment in RC structures. This research will address the above gap in knowledge and will develop and apply a modal strain energy based DI method to assess damage in RC flexural members. Firstly, this research evaluated different damage simulation techniques and recommended an appropriate technique to simulate the post cracking behaviour of RC structures. The ABAQUS finite element package was used throughout the study with properly validated material models. The damaged plasticity model was recommended as the method which can correctly simulate the post cracking behaviour of RC structures and was used in the rest of this study. Four different forms of Modal Strain Energy based Damage Indices (MSEDIs) were proposed to improve the damage assessment capability by minimising the numbers and intensities of false alarms. The developed MSEDIs were then used to automate the damage detection process by incorporating programmable algorithms. The developed algorithms have the ability to identify common issues associated with the vibration properties such as mode shifting and phase change. To minimise the effect of noise on the DI calculation process, this research proposed a sequential order of curve fitting technique. Finally, a statistical based damage assessment scheme was proposed to enhance the reliability of the damage assessment results. The proposed techniques were applied to locate damage in RC beams and slabs on girder bridge model to demonstrate their accuracy and efficiency. The outcomes of this research will make a significant contribution to the technical knowledge of VBDIT and will enhance the accuracy of damage assessment in RC structures. The application of the research findings to RC flexural members will enable their safe and efficient performance.

Predicting vitamin D deficiency in older Australian adults

OBJECTIVE There has been a dramatic increase in vitamin D testing in Australia in recent years, prompting calls for targeted testing. We sought to develop a model to identify people most at risk of vitamin D deficiency. DESIGN AND PARTICIPANTS This is a cross-sectional study of 644 60- to 84-year-old participants, 95% of whom were Caucasian, who took part in a pilot randomized controlled trial of vitamin D supplementation. MEASUREMENTS Baseline 25(OH)D was measured using the Diasorin Liaison platform. Vitamin D insufficiency and deficiency were defined using 50 and 25 nmol/l as cut-points, respectively. A questionnaire was used to obtain information on demographic characteristics and lifestyle factors. We used multivariate logistic regression to predict low vitamin D and calculated the net benefit of using the model compared with 'test-all' and 'test-none' strategies. RESULTS The mean serum 25(OH)D was 42 (SD 14) nmol/1. Seventy-five per cent of participants were vitamin D insufficient and 10% deficient. Serum 25(OH)D was positively correlated with time outdoors, physical activity, vitamin D intake and ambient UVR, and inversely correlated with age, BMI and poor self-reported health status. These predictors explained approximately 21% of the variance in serum 25(OH)D. The area under the ROC curve predicting vitamin D deficiency was 0·82. Net benefit for the prediction model was higher than that for the 'test-all' strategy at all probability thresholds and higher than the 'test-none' strategy for probabilities up to 60%. CONCLUSION Our model could predict vitamin D deficiency with reasonable accuracy, but it needs to be validated in other populations before being implemented.