Asset health prediction using the explicit hazard model

The ability to estimate the asset reliability and the probability of failure is critical to reducing maintenance costs, operation downtime, and safety hazards. Predicting the survival time and the probability of failure in future time is an indispensable requirement in prognostics and asset health management. In traditional reliability models, the lifetime of an asset is estimated using failure event data, alone; however, statistically sufficient failure event data are often difficult to attain in real-life situations due to poor data management, effective preventive maintenance, and the small population of identical assets in use. Condition indicators and operating environment indicators are two types of covariate data that are normally obtained in addition to failure event and suspended data. These data contain significant information about the state and health of an asset. Condition indicators reflect the level of degradation of assets while operating environment indicators accelerate or decelerate the lifetime of assets. When these data are available, an alternative approach to the traditional reliability analysis is the modelling of condition indicators and operating environment indicators and their failure-generating mechanisms using a covariate-based hazard model. The literature review indicates that a number of covariate-based hazard models have been developed. All of these existing covariate-based hazard models were developed based on the principle theory of the Proportional Hazard Model (PHM). However, most of these models have not attracted much attention in the field of machinery prognostics. Moreover, due to the prominence of PHM, attempts at developing alternative models, to some extent, have been stifled, although a number of alternative models to PHM have been suggested. The existing covariate-based hazard models neglect to fully utilise three types of asset health information (including failure event data (i.e. observed and/or suspended), condition data, and operating environment data) into a model to have more effective hazard and reliability predictions. In addition, current research shows that condition indicators and operating environment indicators have different characteristics and they are non-homogeneous covariate data. Condition indicators act as response variables (or dependent variables) whereas operating environment indicators act as explanatory variables (or independent variables). However, these non-homogenous covariate data were modelled in the same way for hazard prediction in the existing covariate-based hazard models. The related and yet more imperative question is how both of these indicators should be effectively modelled and integrated into the covariate-based hazard model. This work presents a new approach for addressing the aforementioned challenges. The new covariate-based hazard model, which termed as Explicit Hazard Model (EHM), explicitly and effectively incorporates all three available asset health information into the modelling of hazard and reliability predictions and also drives the relationship between actual asset health and condition measurements as well as operating environment measurements. The theoretical development of the model and its parameter estimation method are demonstrated in this work. EHM assumes that the baseline hazard is a function of the both time and condition indicators. Condition indicators provide information about the health condition of an asset; therefore they update and reform the baseline hazard of EHM according to the health state of asset at given time t. Some examples of condition indicators are the vibration of rotating machinery, the level of metal particles in engine oil analysis, and wear in a component, to name but a few. Operating environment indicators in this model are failure accelerators and/or decelerators that are included in the covariate function of EHM and may increase or decrease the value of the hazard from the baseline hazard. These indicators caused by the environment in which an asset operates, and that have not been explicitly identified by the condition indicators (e.g. Loads, environmental stresses, and other dynamically changing environment factors). While the effects of operating environment indicators could be nought in EHM; condition indicators could emerge because these indicators are observed and measured as long as an asset is operational and survived. EHM has several advantages over the existing covariate-based hazard models. One is this model utilises three different sources of asset health data (i.e. population characteristics, condition indicators, and operating environment indicators) to effectively predict hazard and reliability. Another is that EHM explicitly investigates the relationship between condition and operating environment indicators associated with the hazard of an asset. Furthermore, the proportionality assumption, which most of the covariate-based hazard models suffer from it, does not exist in EHM. According to the sample size of failure/suspension times, EHM is extended into two forms: semi-parametric and non-parametric. The semi-parametric EHM assumes a specified lifetime distribution (i.e. Weibull distribution) in the form of the baseline hazard. However, for more industry applications, due to sparse failure event data of assets, the analysis of such data often involves complex distributional shapes about which little is known. Therefore, to avoid the restrictive assumption of the semi-parametric EHM about assuming a specified lifetime distribution for failure event histories, the non-parametric EHM, which is a distribution free model, has been developed. The development of EHM into two forms is another merit of the model. A case study was conducted using laboratory experiment data to validate the practicality of the both semi-parametric and non-parametric EHMs. The performance of the newly-developed models is appraised using the comparison amongst the estimated results of these models and the other existing covariate-based hazard models. The comparison results demonstrated that both the semi-parametric and non-parametric EHMs outperform the existing covariate-based hazard models. Future research directions regarding to the new parameter estimation method in the case of time-dependent effects of covariates and missing data, application of EHM in both repairable and non-repairable systems using field data, and a decision support model in which linked to the estimated reliability results, are also identified.

Development of a survey instrument to measure TEFL academics' perceptions about, individual and workplace characteristics for conducting research

The Chinese Ministry of Education (MOE) initiatives to improve the English competence of college students, as well as increased proficiency level of entering college students (Cheng, 2002) have contributed to greater demands on Teaching English as a Foreign Language (TEFL) academics (MOE, 2004), as “the upgrading of national English proficiency, then, is predicated largely on the professional competence of the teaching force” (Hu, 2005, p. 655). For TEFL academics, one component of this competence is the capacity to conduct research (Shu, 2002), which also reflects other changes in Chinese higher education. The aspirations of higher education institutions at all levels have led to more rigorous recruitment policies and promotion requirements (Che, 2004; Wang, 2007), stressing research as an important indicator of academics’ performance (Shi, 2002; Pan, 2006). These changes highlight the role of research in higher education institutions’ efforts to raise their national status and world ranking (Zhang, Wang, & He, 2006), and have exerted influences on faculty’s academic role. Academics are obliged to engage in research activities, and this has posed challenges to teaching-oriented institutions and disciplines.

A new framework of measuring national nutrients balance for international and global comparison

Nutrients balance such as nitrogen and phosphorus balance are increasingly used as an indicator of the environmental performance of agricultural sector in international and global context. However there still is a lack of harmony in the use of methods for estimating the nutrients balance among countries. This is because of the disagreement regarding the accuracy and uncertainty of different accounting methods. The lack of harmony in the methods used in different countries further increases the uncertainty in the context of the international comparisons. This paper provides a new framework for nutrients balance calculation using the farm-gate accounting method. The calculation under this new framework takes advantage of availability of data from FAO and other reliable national and international sources. Due to this, the proposed framework is highly adaptable in many countries, making the global comparison feasible. The paper also proposes three criteria including adaptability, accuracy and interpretability to assess the appropriateness of nutrients accounting method. Based on these criteria, the paper provides a comprehensive comparison of the farm-gate and soil-surface methods in accounting country-level nutrients balance of agricultural production. The paper identifies some shortcomings of the soil-surface balance and shows that the farm-gate method has a greater potential of providing a more accurate and meaningful estimation of national nutrients balance.

Swept source OCT with air puff chamber for corneal dynamics measurements

None of currently used tonometers produce estimated IOP values that are free of errors. Measurement incredibility arises from indirect measurement of corneal deformation and the fact that pressure calculations are based on population averaged parameters of anterior segment. Reliable IOP values are crucial for understanding and monitoring of number of eye pathologies e.g. glaucoma. We have combined high speed swept source OCT with air-puff chamber. System provides direct measurement of deformation of cornea and anterior surface of the lens. This paper describes in details the performance of air-puff ssOCT instrument. We present different approaches of data presentation and analysis. Changes in deformation amplitude appears to be good indicator of IOP changes. However, it seems that in order to provide accurate intraocular pressure values an additional information on corneal biomechanics is necessary. We believe that such information could be extracted from data provided by air-puff ssOCT.

Assessing eco-environmental performance of agricultural production in OECD countries : combination of soil surface, soil system and farm gate methods of nutrient auditing

Nitrogen balance is increasingly used as an indicator of the environmental performance of agricultural sector in national, international, and global contexts. There are three main methods of accounting the national nitrogen balance: farm gate, soil surface, and soil system. OECD (2008) recently reported the nitrogen and phosphorus balances for member countries for the 1985 - 2004 period using the soil surface method. The farm gate and soil system methods were also used in some international projects. Some studies have provided the comparison among these methods and the conclusion is mixed. The motivation of this present paper was to combine these three methods to provide a more detailed auditing of the nitrogen balance and flows for national agricultural production. In addition, the present paper also provided a new strategy of using reliable international and national data sources to calculate nitrogen balance using the farm gate method. The empirical study focused on the nitrogen balance of OECD countries for the period from 1985 to 2003. The N surplus sent to the total environment of OECD surged dramatically in early 1980s, gradually decreased during 1990s but exhibited an increasing trends in early 2000s. The overall N efficiency however fluctuated without a clear increasing trend. The eco-environmental ranking shows that Australia and Ireland were the worst while Korea and Greece were the best.

Real-time risk monitoring in business processes : a sensor-based approach

This article proposes an approach for real-time monitoring of risks in executable business process models. The approach considers risks in all phases of the business process management lifecycle, from process design, where risks are defined on top of process models, through to process diagnosis, where risks are detected during process execution. The approach has been realized via a distributed, sensor-based architecture. At design-time, sensors are defined to specify risk conditions which when fulfilled, are a likely indicator of negative process states (faults) to eventuate. Both historical and current process execution data can be used to compose such conditions. At run-time, each sensor independently notifies a sensor manager when a risk is detected. In turn, the sensor manager interacts with the monitoring component of a business process management system to prompt the results to process administrators who may take remedial actions. The proposed architecture has been implemented on top of the YAWL system, and evaluated through performance measurements and usability tests with students. The results show that risk conditions can be computed efficiently and that the approach is perceived as useful by the participants in the tests.

Bus and car travel time on urban networks : integrating Bluetooth and bus vehicle identification data

Travel time in an important transport performance indicator. Different modes of transport (buses and cars) have different mechanical and operational characteristics, resulting in significantly different travel behaviours and complexities in multimodal travel time estimation on urban networks. This paper explores the relationship between bus and car travel time on urban networks by utilising the empirical Bluetooth and Bus Vehicle Identification data from Brisbane. The technologies and issues behind the two datasets are studied. After cleaning the data to remove outliers, the relationship between not-in-service bus and car travel time and the relationship between in-service bus and car travel time are discussed. The travel time estimation models reveal that the not-in-service bus travel time are similar to the car travel time and the in-service bus travel time could be used to estimate car travel time during off-peak hours

Valid and reliable assessment of wellness among adolescents : do you know what you’re measuring?

Measuring wellness among adolescents is an emerging trend among professionals and researchers endeavouring to influence youth as they establish lifestyle patterns in this critical period of life. This discussion highlights instruments used to measure wellness among adolescents, and considers the empirical data supporting their validity and reliability amongst adolescents. In summary, Adolescent wellness is an important indicator of future health and lifestyle habits. There are a number of tools available to measure wellness, each with its own focus, depending on the definition or model from which it was developed. This may cause debate regarding the appropriateness of some instruments for evaluating wellness. The majority of wellness evaluation approaches reported among adolescents have less than ideal validation. A ‘gold standard’ definition could lead to the standardisation of a theoretical model against which wellness instruments could be validated. The absence of peer reviewed studies reporting psychometric testing for wellness evaluation instruments among adolescents is concerning given their growing popularity and highlights a priority area for future research in this field.

Inter-cycle variability of in-cylinder pressure parameters in an ethanol fumigated common rail diesel engine

The effects of ethanol fumigation on the inter-cycle variability of key in-cylinder pressure parameters in a modern common rail diesel engine have been investigated. Specifically, maximum rate of pressure rise, peak pressure, peak pressure timing and ignition delay were investigated. A new methodology for investigating the start of combustion was also proposed and demonstrated—which is particularly useful with noisy in-cylinder pressure data as it can have a significant effect on the calculation of an accurate net rate of heat release indicator diagram. Inter-cycle variability has been traditionally investigated using the coefficient of variation. However, deeper insight into engine operation is given by presenting the results as kernel density estimates; hence, allowing investigation of otherwise unnoticed phenomena, including: multi-modal and skewed behaviour. This study has found that operation of a common rail diesel engine with high ethanol substitutions (>20% at full load, >30% at three quarter load) results in a significant reduction in ignition delay. Further, this study also concluded that if the engine is operated with absolute air to fuel ratios (mole basis) less than 80, the inter-cycle variability is substantially increased compared to normal operation.

Histopathological examination of chronic laminitis in Kaimanawa feral horses of New Zealand

AIMS: To investigate the prevalence, histopathological and histomorphometric presentation of chronic laminitis in a population of Kaimanawa feral horses. METHODS: Following the capture and euthanasia of feral horses from the Kaimanawa Ranges of New Zealand, the left forefoot of 28 stallions and 28 mares aged between 6 and 12 years were removed and processed for histology. Sections of lamellar samples from each horse were examined using light microscopy. The presence of laminitis was assessed and the histopathological lesions were described. Horses were grouped by histological diagnosis into laminitic and non-laminitic groups and histomorphometric analysis was conducted and compared between groups. The parameters examined were total length of primary epidermal lamellae (PEL), keratinised length of PEL, and the length of secondary epidermal lamellae (SEL) at the abaxial end and axial end of each PEL. RESULTS: Of the horses examined, 25 (45%) were diagnosed with chronic laminitis. The most prevalent histopathological features were the presence of excessive cap horn, and multi-branched and attenuated SEL. Histomorphometric assessment of the lamellar architecture revealed no difference in morphometric measurements between the normal and laminitic groups for any parameter measured (p>0.05). CONCLUSIONS: The current study found a high prevalence of laminitis in feral Kaimanawa horses. The reason for this in the Kaimanawa population is not known. Histomorphometric analysis may not be a good indicator of chronic laminitis in feral horses. CLINICAL RELEVANCE: It is an important finding that the feral horse lifestyle in the environment of the Kaimanawa Ranges in New Zealand offers no protection against foot disease. The finding suggests that horses are vulnerable to laminitis whether in domestic care or in a feral habitat.

Binocular rivalry and visuospatial ability in individuals with schizophrenia

Visual abnormalities, both at the sensory input and the higher interpretive levels, have been associated with many of the symptoms of schizophrenia. Individuals with schizophrenia typically experience distortions of sensory perception, resulting in perceptual hallucinations and delusions that are related to the observed visual deficits. Disorganised speech, thinking and behaviour are commonly experienced by sufferers of the disorder, and have also been attributed to perceptual disturbances associated with anomalies in visual processing. Compounding these issues are marked deficits in cognitive functioning that are observed in approximately 80% of those with schizophrenia. Cognitive impairments associated with schizophrenia include: difficulty with concentration and memory (i.e. working, visual and verbal), an impaired ability to process complex information, response inhibition and deficits in speed of processing, visual and verbal learning. Deficits in sustained attention or vigilance, poor executive functioning such as poor reasoning, problem solving, and social cognition, are all influenced by impaired visual processing. These symptoms impact on the internal perceptual world of those with schizophrenia, and hamper their ability to navigate their external environment. Visual processing abnormalities in schizophrenia are likely to worsen personal, social and occupational functioning. Binocular rivalry provides a unique opportunity to investigate the processes involved in visual awareness and visual perception. Binocular rivalry is the alternation of perceptual images that occurs when conflicting visual stimuli are presented to each eye in the same retinal location. The observer perceives the opposing images in an alternating fashion, despite the sensory input to each eye remaining constant. Binocular rivalry tasks have been developed to investigate specific parts of the visual system. The research presented in this Thesis provides an explorative investigation into binocular rivalry in schizophrenia, using the method of Pettigrew and Miller (1998) and comparing individuals with schizophrenia to healthy controls. This method allows manipulations to the spatial and temporal frequency, luminance contrast and chromaticity of the visual stimuli. Manipulations to the rival stimuli affect the rate of binocular rivalry alternations and the time spent perceiving each image (dominance duration). Binocular rivalry rate and dominance durations provide useful measures to investigate aspects of visual neural processing that lead to the perceptual disturbances and cognitive dysfunction attributed to schizophrenia. However, despite this promise the binocular rivalry phenomenon has not been extensively explored in schizophrenia to date. Following a review of the literature, the research in this Thesis examined individual variation in binocular rivalry. The initial study (Chapter 2) explored the effect of systematically altering the properties of the stimuli (i.e. spatial and temporal frequency, luminance contrast and chromaticity) on binocular rivalry rate and dominance durations in healthy individuals (n=20). The findings showed that altering the stimuli with respect to temporal frequency and luminance contrast significantly affected rate. This is significant as processing of temporal frequency and luminance contrast have consistently been demonstrated to be abnormal in schizophrenia. The current research then explored binocular rivalry in schizophrenia. The primary research question was, "Are binocular rivalry rates and dominance durations recorded in participants with schizophrenia different to those of the controls?" In this second study binocular rivalry data that were collected using low- and highstrength binocular rivalry were compared to alternations recorded during a monocular rivalry task, the Necker Cube task to replicate and advance the work of Miller et al., (2003). Participants with schizophrenia (n=20) recorded fewer alternations (i.e. slower alternation rates) than control participants (n=20) on both binocular rivalry tasks, however no difference was observed between the groups on the Necker cube task. Magnocellular and parvocellular visual pathways, thought to be abnormal in schizophrenia, were also investigated in binocular rivalry. The binocular rivalry stimuli used in this third study (Chapter 4) were altered to bias the task for one of these two pathways. Participants with schizophrenia recorded slower binocular rivalry rates than controls in both binocular rivalry tasks. Using a ‘within subject design’, binocular rivalry data were compared to data collected from a backwardmasking task widely accepted to bias both these pathways. Based on these data, a model of binocular rivalry, based on the magnocellular and parvocellular pathways that contribute to the dorsal and ventral visual streams, was developed. Binocular rivalry rates were compared with performance on the Benton’s Judgment of Line Orientation task, in individuals with schizophrenia compared to healthy controls (Chapter 5). The Benton’s Judgment of Line Orientation task is widely accepted to be processed within the right cerebral hemisphere, making it an appropriate task to investigate the role of the cerebral hemispheres in binocular rivalry, and to investigate the inter-hemispheric switching hypothesis of binocular rivalry proposed by Pettigrew and Miller (1998, 2003). The data were suggestive of intra-hemispheric rather than an inter-hemispheric visual processing in binocular rivalry. Neurotransmitter involvement in binocular rivalry, backward masking and Judgment of Line Orientation in schizophrenia were investigated using a genetic indicator of dopamine receptor distribution and functioning; the presence of the Taq1 allele of the dopamine D2 receptor (DRD2) receptor gene. This final study (Chapter 6) explored whether the presence of the Taq1 allele of the DRD2 receptor gene, and thus, by inference the distribution of dopamine receptors and dopamine function, accounted for the large individual variation in binocular rivalry. The presence of the Taq1 allele was associated with slower binocular rivalry rates or poorer performance in the backward masking and Judgment of Line Orientation tasks seen in the group with schizophrenia. This Thesis has contributed to what is known about binocular rivalry in schizophrenia. Consistently slower binocular rivalry rates were observed in participants with schizophrenia, indicating abnormally-slow visual processing in this group. These data support previous studies reporting visual processing abnormalities in schizophrenia and suggest that a slow binocular rivalry rate is not a feature specific to bipolar disorder, but may be a feature of disorders with psychotic features generally. The contributions of the magnocellular or dorsal pathways and parvocellular or ventral pathways to binocular rivalry, and therefore to perceptual awareness, were investigated. The data presented supported the view that the magnocellular system initiates perceptual awareness of an image and the parvocellular system maintains the perception of the image, making it available to higher level processing occurring within the cortical hemispheres. Abnormal magnocellular and parvocellular processing may both contribute to perceptual disturbances that ultimately contribute to the cognitive dysfunction associated with schizophrenia. An alternative model of binocular rivalry based on these observations was proposed.

Reply - Malnutrition and its impact on cost of hospitalization, length of stay, readmission and 3-year mortality

Dear Editor We thank Dr Klek for his interest in our article and giving us the opportunity to clarify our study and share our thoughts. Our study looks at the prevalence of malnutrition in an acute tertiary hospital and tracked the outcomes prospectively.1 There are a number of reasons why we chose Subjective Global Assessment (SGA) to determine the nutritional status of patients. Firstly, we took the view that nutrition assessment tools should be used to determine nutrition status and diagnose presence and severity of malnutrition; whereas the purpose of nutrition screening tools are to identify individuals who are at risk of malnutrition. Nutritional assessment rather than screening should be used as the basis for planning and evaluating nutrition interventions for those diagnosed with malnutrition. Secondly, Subjective Global Assessment (SGA) has been well accepted and validated as an assessment tool to diagnose the presence and severity of malnutrition in clinical practice.2, 3 It has been used in many studies as a valid prognostic indicator of a range of nutritional and clinical outcomes.4, 5, 6 On the other hand, Malnutrition Universal Screening Tool (MUST)7 and Nutrition Risk Screening 2002 (NRS 2002)8 have been established as screening rather than assessment tools.

A catchment modelling approach integrating surface and groundwater processes, land use and distribution of nutrients : Elimbah Creek, southeast Queensland

As the world’s population is growing, so is the demand for agricultural products. However, natural nitrogen (N) fixation and phosphorus (P) availability cannot sustain the rising agricultural production, thus, the application of N and P fertilisers as additional nutrient sources is common. It is those anthropogenic activities that can contribute high amounts of organic and inorganic nutrients to both surface and groundwaters resulting in degradation of water quality and a possible reduction of aquatic life. In addition, runoff and sewage from urban and residential areas can contain high amounts of inorganic and organic nutrients which may also affect water quality. For example, blooms of the cyanobacterium Lyngbya majuscula along the coastline of southeast Queensland are an indicator of at least short term decreases of water quality. Although Australian catchments, including those with intensive forms of land use, show in general a low export of nutrients compared to North American and European catchments, certain land use practices may still have a detrimental effect on the coastal environment. Numerous studies are reported on nutrient cycling and associated processes on a catchment scale in the Northern Hemisphere. Comparable studies in Australia, in particular in subtropical regions are, however, limited and there is a paucity in the data, in particular for inorganic and organic forms of nitrogen and phosphorus; these nutrients are important limiting factors in surface waters to promote algal blooms. Therefore, the monitoring of N and P and understanding the sources and pathways of these nutrients within a catchment is important in coastal zone management. Although Australia is the driest continent, in subtropical regions such as southeast Queensland, rainfall patterns have a significant effect on runoff and thus the nutrient cycle at a catchment scale. Increasingly, these rainfall patterns are becoming variable. The monitoring of these climatic conditions and the hydrological response of agricultural catchments is therefore also important to reduce the anthropogenic effects on surface and groundwater quality. This study consists of an integrated hydrological–hydrochemical approach that assesses N and P in an environment with multiple land uses. The main aim is to determine the nutrient cycle within a representative coastal catchment in southeast Queensland, the Elimbah Creek catchment. In particular, the investigation confirms the influence associated with forestry and agriculture on N and P forms, sources, distribution and fate in the surface and groundwaters of this subtropical setting. In addition, the study determines whether N and P are subject to transport into the adjacent estuary and thus into the marine environment; also considered is the effect of local topography, soils and geology on N and P sources and distribution. The thesis is structured on four components individually reported. The first paper determines the controls of catchment settings and processes on stream water, riverbank sediment, and shallow groundwater N and P concentrations, in particular during the extended dry conditions that were encountered during the study. Temporal and spatial factors such as seasonal changes, soil character, land use and catchment morphology are considered as well as their effect on controls over distributions of N and P in surface waters and associated groundwater. A total number of 30 surface and 13 shallow groundwater sampling sites were established throughout the catchment to represent dominant soil types and the land use upstream of each sampling location. Sampling comprises five rounds and was conducted over one year between October 2008 and November 2009. Surface water and groundwater samples were analysed for all major dissolved inorganic forms of N and for total N. Phosphorus was determined in the form of dissolved reactive P (predominantly orthophosphate) and total P. In addition, extracts of stream bank sediments and soil grab samples were analysed for these N and P species. Findings show that major storm events, in particular after long periods of drought conditions, are the driving force of N cycling. This is expressed by higher inorganic N concentrations in the agricultural subcatchment compared to the forested subcatchment. Nitrate N is the dominant inorganic form of N in both the surface and groundwaters and values are significantly higher in the groundwaters. Concentrations in the surface water range from 0.03 to 0.34 mg N L..1; organic N concentrations are considerably higher (average range: 0.33 to 0.85 mg N L..1), in particular in the forested subcatchment. Average NO3-N in the groundwater has a range of 0.39 to 2.08 mg N L..1, and organic N averages between 0.07 and 0.3 mg N L..1. The stream bank sediments are dominated by organic N (range: 0.53 to 0.65 mg N L..1), and the dominant inorganic form of N is NH4-N with values ranging between 0.38 and 0.41 mg N L..1. Topography and soils, however, were not to have a significant effect on N and P concentrations in waters. Detectable phosphorus in the surface and groundwaters of the catchment is limited to several locations typically in the proximity of areas with intensive animal use; in soil and sediments, P is negligible. In the second paper, the stable isotopes of N (14N/15N) and H2O (16O/18O and 2H/H) in surface and groundwaters are used to identify sources of dissolved inorganic and organic N in these waters, and to determine their pathways within the catchment; specific emphasis is placed on the relation of forestry and agriculture. Forestry is predominantly concentrated in the northern subcatchment (Beerburrum Creek) while agriculture is mainly found in the southern subcatchment (Six Mile Creek). Results show that agriculture (horticulture, crops, grazing) is the main source of inorganic N in the surface waters of the agricultural subcatchment, and their isotopic signature shows a close link to evaporation processes that may occur during water storage in farm dams that are used for irrigation. Groundwaters are subject to denitrification processes that may result in reduced dissolved inorganic N concentrations. Soil organic matter delivers most of the inorganic N to the surface water in the forested subcatchment. Here, precipitation and subsequently runoff is the main source of the surface waters. Groundwater in this area is affected by agricultural processes. The findings also show that the catchment can attenuate the effects of anthropogenic land use on surface water quality. Riparian strips of natural remnant vegetation, commonly 50 to 100 m in width, act as buffer zones along the drainage lines in the catchment and remove inorganic N from the soil water before it enters the creek. These riparian buffer zones are common in most agricultural catchments of southeast Queensland and are indicated to reduce the impact of agriculture on stream water quality and subsequently on the estuary and marine environments. This reduction is expressed by a significant decrease in DIN concentrations from 1.6 mg N L..1 to 0.09 mg N L..1, and a decrease in the �15N signatures from upstream surface water locations downstream to the outlet of the agricultural subcatchment. Further testing is, however, necessary to confirm these processes. Most importantly, the amount of N that is transported to the adjacent estuary is shown to be negligible. The third and fourth components of the thesis use a hydrological catchment model approach to determine the water balance of the Elimbah Creek catchment. The model is then used to simulate the effects of land use on the water balance and nutrient loads of the study area. The tool that is used is the internationally widely applied Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT). Knowledge about the water cycle of a catchment is imperative in nutrient studies as processes such as rainfall, surface runoff, soil infiltration and routing of water through the drainage system are the driving forces of the catchment nutrient cycle. Long-term information about discharge volumes of the creeks and rivers do, however, not exist for a number of agricultural catchments in southeast Queensland, and such information is necessary to calibrate and validate numerical models. Therefore, a two-step modelling approach was used to calibrate and validate parameters values from a near-by gauged reference catchment as starting values for the ungauged Elimbah Creek catchment. Transposing monthly calibrated and validated parameter values from the reference catchment to the ungauged catchment significantly improved model performance showing that the hydrological model of the catchment of interest is a strong predictor of the water water balance. The model efficiency coefficient EF shows that 94% of the simulated discharge matches the observed flow whereas only 54% of the observed streamflow was simulated by the SWAT model prior to using the validated values from the reference catchment. In addition, the hydrological model confirmed that total surface runoff contributes the majority of flow to the surface water in the catchment (65%). Only a small proportion of the water in the creek is contributed by total base-flow (35%). This finding supports the results of the stable isotopes 16O/18O and 2H/H, which show the main source of water in the creeks is either from local precipitation or irrigation waters delivered by surface runoff; a contribution from the groundwater (baseflow) to the creeks could not be identified using 16O/18O and 2H/H. In addition, the SWAT model calculated that around 68% of the rainfall occurring in the catchment is lost through evapotranspiration reflecting the prevailing long-term drought conditions that were observed prior and during the study. Stream discharge from the forested subcatchment was an order of magnitude lower than discharge from the agricultural Six Mile Creek subcatchment. A change in land use from forestry to agriculture did not significantly change the catchment water balance, however, nutrient loads increased considerably. Conversely, a simulated change from agriculture to forestry resulted in a significant decrease of nitrogen loads. The findings of the thesis and the approach used are shown to be of value to catchment water quality monitoring on a wider scale, in particular the implications of mixed land use on nutrient forms, distributions and concentrations. The study confirms that in the tropics and subtropics the water balance is affected by extended dry periods and seasonal rainfall with intensive storm events. In particular, the comprehensive data set of inorganic and organic N and P forms in the surface and groundwaters of this subtropical setting acquired during the one year sampling program may be used in similar catchment hydrological studies where these detailed information is missing. Also, the study concludes that riparian buffer zones along the catchment drainage system attenuate the transport of nitrogen from agricultural sources in the surface water. Concentrations of N decreased from upstream to downstream locations and were negligible at the outlet of the catchment.

Estimating health related costs and savings from balcony acoustic design for road traffic noise

A multi-faceted study is conducted with the objective of estimating the potential fiscal savings in annoyance and sleep disturbance related health costs due to providing improved building acoustic design standards. This study uses balcony acoustic treatments in response to road traffic noise as an example. The study area is the State of Queensland in Australia, where regional road traffic noise mapping data is used in conjunction with standard dose–response curves to estimate the population exposure levels. The background and the importance of using the selected road traffic noise indicators are discussed. In order to achieve the objective, correlations between the mapping indicator (LA10 (18 hour)) and the dose response curve indicators (Lden and Lnight) are established via analysis on a large database of road traffic noise measurement data. The existing noise exposure of the study area is used to estimate the fiscal reductions in health related costs through the application of simple estimations of costs per person per year per degree of annoyance or sleep disturbance. The results demonstrate that balcony acoustic treatments may provide a significant benefit towards reducing the health related costs of road traffic noise in a community.

A new first-order decision-making model for the procurement of public sector infrastructure: Procedures and Testing

Given global demand for new infrastructure, governments face substantial challenges in funding new infrastructure and delivering Value for Money (VfM). As part of the background to this challenge, a critique is given of current practice in the selection of the approach to procure major public sector infrastructure in Australia and which is akin to the Multi-Attribute Utility Approach (MAUA). To contribute towards addressing the key weaknesses of MAUA, a new first-order procurement decision-making model is presented. The model addresses the make-or-buy decision (risk allocation); the bundling decision (property rights incentives), as well as the exchange relationship decision (relational to arms-length exchange) in its novel approach to articulating a procurement strategy designed to yield superior VfM across the whole life of the asset. The aim of this paper is report on the development of this decisionmaking model in terms of the procedural tasks to be followed and the method being used to test the model. The planned approach to testing the model uses a sample of 87 Australian major infrastructure projects in the sum of AUD32 billion and deploys a key proxy for VfM comprising expressions of interest, as an indicator of competition.