Spatiotemporal analysis of indigenous and imported dengue fever cases in Guangdong province, China

Background Dengue fever has been a major public health concern in China since it re-emerged in Guangdong province in 1978. This study aimed to explore spatiotemporal characteristics of dengue fever cases for both indigenous and imported cases during recent years in Guangdong province, so as to identify high-risk areas of the province and thereby help plan resource allocation for dengue interventions. Methods Notifiable cases of dengue fever were collected from all 123 counties of Guangdong province from 2005 to 2010. Descriptive temporal and spatial analysis were conducted, including plotting of seasonal distribution of cases, and creating choropleth maps of cumulative incidence by county. The space-time scan statistic was used to determine space-time clusters of dengue fever cases at the county level, and a geographical information system was used to visualize the location of the clusters. Analysis were stratified by imported and indigenous origin. Results 1658 dengue fever cases were recorded in Guangdong province during the study period, including 94 imported cases and 1564 indigenous cases. Both imported and indigenous cases occurred more frequently in autumn. The areas affected by the indigenous and imported cases presented a geographically expanding trend over the study period. The results showed that the most likely cluster of imported cases (relative risk = 7.52, p < 0.001) and indigenous cases (relative risk = 153.56, p < 0.001) occurred in the Pearl River Delta Area; while a secondary cluster of indigenous cases occurred in one district of the Chao Shan Area (relative risk = 471.25, p < 0.001). Conclusions This study demonstrated that the geographic range of imported and indigenous dengue fever cases has expanded over recent years, and cases were significantly clustered in two heavily urbanised areas of Guangdong province. This provides the foundation for further investigation of risk factors and interventions in these high-risk areas.

Time and cost performance of design–build projects

The design-build (DB) delivery method has been widely used in the United States due to its reputed superior cost and time performance. However, rigorous studies have produced inconclusive support and only in terms of overall results, with few attempts being made to relate project characteristics with performance levels. This paper provides a larger and more finely grained analysis of a set of 418 DB projects from the online project database of the Design-Build Institute of America (DBIA), in terms of the time-overrun rate (TOR), early start rate (ESR), early completion rate (ECR) and cost overrun rate (COR) associated with project type (e.g., commercial/institutional buildings and civil infrastructure projects), owners (e.g., Department of Defense and private corporations), procurement methods (e.g., ‘best value with discussion’ and qualifications-based selection), contract methods (e.g., lump sum and GMP) and LEED levels (e.g., gold and silver). The results show ‘best value with discussion’ to be the dominant procurement method and lump sum the most frequently used contract method. The DB method provides relatively good time performance, with more than 75% of DB projects completed on time or before schedule. However, with more than 50% of DB projects cost overrunning, the DB advantage of cost saving remains uncertain. ANOVA tests indicate that DB projects within different procurement methods have significantly different time performance and that different owner types and contract methods significantly affect cost performance. In addition to contributing to empirical knowledge concerning the cost and time performance of DB projects with new solid evidence from a large sample size, the findings and practical implications of this study are beneficial to owners in understanding the likely schedule and budget implications involved for their particular project characteristics.

Spatiotemporal transmission dynamics of hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome in China, 2005-2012

Background Hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome (HFRS) is a rodent-borne disease caused by many serotypes of hantaviruses. In China, HFRS has been recognized as a severe public health problem with 90% of the total reported cases in the world. This study describes the spatiotemporal dynamics of HFRS cases in China and identifies the regions, time, and populations at highest risk, which could help the planning and implementation of key preventative measures. Methods Data on all reported HFRS cases at the county level from January 2005 to December 2012 were collected from Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention. Geographic Information System-based spatiotemporal analyses including Local Indicators of Spatial Association and Kulldorff's space-time scan statistic were performed to detect local high-risk space-time clusters of HFRS in China. In addition, cases from high-risk and low-risk counties were compared to identify significant demographic differences. Results A total of 100,868 cases were reported during 2005–2012 in mainland China. There were significant variations in the spatiotemporal dynamics of HFRS. HFRS cases occurred most frequently in June, November, and December. There was a significant positive spatial autocorrelation of HFRS incidence during the study periods, with Moran's I values ranging from 0.46 to 0.56 (P<0.05). Several distinct HFRS cluster areas were identified, mainly concentrated in northeastern, central, and eastern of China. Compared with cases from low-risk areas, a higher proportion of cases were younger, non-farmer, and floating residents in high-risk counties. Conclusions This study identified significant space-time clusters of HFRS in China during 2005–2012 indicating that preventative strategies for HFRS should be particularly focused on the northeastern, central, and eastern of China to achieve the most cost-effective outcomes.

Effects of sewer conditions on the degradation of selected illicit drug residues in wastewater

The stability of five illicit drug markers in wastewater was tested under different sewer conditions using laboratory-scale sewer reactors. Wastewater was spiked with deuterium labelled isotopes of cocaine, benzoyl ecgonine, methamphetamine, MDMA and 6-acetyl morphine to avoid interference from the native isotopes already present in the wastewater matrix. The sewer reactors were operated at 20 °C and pH 7.5, and wastewater was sampled at 0, 0.25, 0.5, 1, 2, 3, 6, 9 and 12 h to measure the transformation/degradation of these marker compounds. The results showed that while methamphetamine, MDMA and benzoyl ecgonine were stable in the sewer reactors, cocaine and 6-acetyl morphine degraded quickly. Their degradation rates are significantly higher than the values reportedly measured in wastewater alone (without biofilms). All the degradation processes followed first order kinetics. Benzoyl ecgonine and morphine were also formed from the degradation of cocaine and 6-acetyl morphine, respectively, with stable formation rates throughout the test. These findings suggest that, in sewage epidemiology, it is essential to have relevant information of the sewer system (i.e. type of sewer, hydraulic retention time) in order to accurately back-estimate the consumption of illicit drugs. More research is required to look into detailed sewer conditions (e.g. temperature, pH and ratio of biofilm area to wastewater volume among others) to identify their effects on the fate of illicit drug markers in sewer systems.

Spatiotemporal clustering analysis and risk assessments of human cutaneous anthrax in China, 2005–2012

Objective To investigate the epidemic characteristics of human cutaneous anthrax (CA) in China, detect the spatiotemporal clusters at the county level for preemptive public health interventions, and evaluate the differences in the epidemiological characteristics within and outside clusters. Methods CA cases reported during 2005–2012 from the national surveillance system were evaluated at the county level using space-time scan statistic. Comparative analysis of the epidemic characteristics within and outside identified clusters was performed using using the χ2 test or Kruskal-Wallis test. Results The group of 30–39 years had the highest incidence of CA, and the fatality rate increased with age, with persons ≥70 years showing a fatality rate of 4.04%. Seasonality analysis showed that most of CA cases occurred between May/June and September/October of each year. The primary spatiotemporal cluster contained 19 counties from June 2006 to May 2010, and it was mainly located straddling the borders of Sichuan, Gansu, and Qinghai provinces. In these high-risk areas, CA cases were predominantly found among younger, local, males, shepherds, who were living on agriculture and stockbreeding and characterized with high morbidity, low mortality and a shorter period from illness onset to diagnosis. Conclusion CA was geographically and persistently clustered in the Southwestern China during 2005–2012, with notable differences in the epidemic characteristics within and outside spatiotemporal clusters; this demonstrates the necessity for CA interventions such as enhanced surveillance, health education, mandatory and standard decontamination or disinfection procedures to be geographically targeted to the areas identified in this study.

Efficient simulation of unsaturated flow in heterogeneous soils using an exponential integrator

- Provided a practical variable-stepsize implementation of the exponential Euler method (EEM). - Introduced a new second-order variant of the scheme that enables the local error to be estimated at the cost of a single additional function evaluation. - New EEM implementation outperformed sophisticated implementations of the backward differentiation formulae (BDF) of order 2 and was competitive with BDF of order 5 for moderate to high tolerances.

Rethinking connectedness : an investigation into the access of teacher professional learning in regional and remote Western Australia

Many teachers working in remote and regional areas have limited access to collegial support networks. This research aimed to examine the existing strategies that were being undertaken by the Department of Education in Western Australia, to provide professional learning to teachers in regional and remote areas. It was important to establish the perceptions of teachers’ access to professional learning from those working at the coalface in geographically dispersed areas. Consequently, the possible opportunity for improving the amount and variety of professional learning, through the application of both synchronous and asynchronous technologies was proposed. The study was guided by the primary research question: “In what ways might technology be used to support professional development of regional and remote teachers in Western Australia?” Generating descriptions of current practice of professional learning along with the teacher perceptions were central to this research endeavour. The study relied on a mixed method research approach in order to attend to the research question. The data were collected in phases, referred to as an explanatory mixed methods design. Quantitative data were collected from 104 participants to provide a general picture of the research problem. To further refine this general picture, qualitative data were collected through interviews and e-interviews of 10 teachers. Participants in the study included graduate teachers, teachers who had taught more than two years, senior teachers and Level Three teachers from seven teaching districts within Western Australia. An investigation into current practice was included in this phase and technologies available to support a professional learning community over distance were documented. The final phase incorporated the formulation of a conceptual framework where a model was developed to facilitate the successful implementation of a professional learning community through the application of synchronous and asynchronous technologies. The study has identified that travel time in order to access professional development is significant and impacts on teachers’ personal time. There are limited relief teachers available in these isolated areas which impacts on the opportunities to access professional development. Teachers face inequities, in terms of promotion, because professional development is explicitly linked to promotional opportunities. Importantly, it was found that professional learning communities are valued, but are often limited by small staff numbers at the geographic locality of the school. Teachers preferred to undertake professional learning in the local context of their district, school or classroom and this professional learning must be established at the need of the individual teacher in line with the school priorities. Teachers reported they were confident in using technology and accessing professional development online if required, however, much uncertainty surrounded the use of web 2.0 technologies for this purpose. The recommendations made from the study are intended to identify how a professional learning community might be enhanced through synchronous and asynchronous technologies.

Rethinking connectedness: improving access to professional learning for regional and remote teachers

Transformation of Australian education is occurring at a rapid rate through the implementation of a number of initiatives. These initiatives include the Digital Education Revolution, the move to a National Curriculum and the implementation of a National Framework for Professional Standards for Teachers and Principals. As these initiatives are rolled out to schools across Australia, the equitable access to professional learning to support all teachers, regardless of their geographical location, is in question. A number of studies have been conducted in Australia that highlight the importance of professional learning and the difficulty faced by regional and remote teachers with regard to access (Gerard Daniels, 2007; Lysons, Cooksey, Panizzon, Parnell & Pegg 2006; Ministerial Review of Schooling, 1994, Rural and Remote Education Advisory Council, 2000; Vinson, 2002). Along with access to professional learning, has been the discussion of effective modes of delivery. Face to face professional learning, in regional and metropolitan areas, is offered in isolation, or in some cases, is complimented with virtual learning environments. The need for a more sustainable approach to professional learning is highly necessary. A mixed method research approach was utilised in order to answer the primary research question "In what ways might technology be used to support professional learning of regional and remote teachers in Western Australia?" This research paper outlines the findings from the study including the significance of travel time; impact of limited relief teachers; implications for promotion and teacher registration; professional learning communities being valued but often limited by small staff numbers; professional learning conducted in the local context being preferred; professional learning established at the teacher and school level being desirable; teachers being confident in using technology and accessing PD online if required; and social cohesiveness being valued and often limited by isolation. Further, this research has culminated in the development of a "model of rethinking connectedness" that would facilitate improving the amount and variety of professional learning available to regional and remote teachers.

Modeling transport through an environment crowded by a mixture of obstacles of different shapes and sizes

Many biological environments are crowded by macromolecules, organelles and cells which can impede the transport of other cells and molecules. Previous studies have sought to describe these effects using either random walk models or fractional order diffusion equations. Here we examine the transport of both a single agent and a population of agents through an environment containing obstacles of varying size and shape, whose relative densities are drawn from a specified distribution. Our simulation results for a single agent indicate that smaller obstacles are more effective at retarding transport than larger obstacles; these findings are consistent with our simulations of the collective motion of populations of agents. In an attempt to explore whether these kinds of stochastic random walk simulations can be described using a fractional order diffusion equation framework, we calibrate the solution of such a differential equation to our averaged agent density information. Our approach suggests that these kinds of commonly used differential equation models ought to be used with care since we are unable to match the solution of a fractional order diffusion equation to our data in a consistent fashion over a finite time period.