The decline in activities of daily living at discharge (DADLD) index : stratifying patients at lower and higher risk

Background: Decreased ability to perform Activities of Daily Living (ADLs) during hospitalisation has negative consequences for patients and health service delivery. Objective: To develop an Index to stratify patients at lower and higher risk of a significant decline in ability to perform ADLs at discharge. Design: Prospective two cohort study comprising a derivation (n=389; mean age 82.3 years; SD� 7.1) and a validation cohort (n=153; mean age 81.5 years; SD� 6.1). Patients and setting: General medical patients aged = 70 years admitted to three university-affiliated acute care hospitals in Brisbane, Australia. Measurement and main results: The short ADL Scale was used to identify a significant decline in ability to perform ADLs from premorbid to discharge. In the derivation cohort, 77 patients (19.8%) experienced a significant decline. Four significant factors were identified for patients independent at baseline: 'requiring moderate assistance to being totally dependent on others with bathing'; 'difficulty understanding others (frequently or all the time)'; 'requiring moderate assistance to being totally dependent on others with performing housework'; a 'history of experiencing at least one fall in the previous 90 days prior to hospital admission' in addition to 'independent at baseline', which was protective against decline at discharge. 'Difficulty understanding others (frequently or all the time)' and 'requiring moderate assistance to being totally dependent on others with performing housework' were also predictors for patients dependent in ADLs at baseline. Sensitivity, specificity, Positive Predictive Value (PPV), and Negative Predictive Value (NPV) of the DADLD dichotomised risk scores were: 83.1% (95% CI 72.8; 90.7); 60.5% (95% CI 54.8; 65.9); 34.2% (95% CI 27.5; 41.5); 93.5% (95% CI 89.2; 96.5). In the validation cohort, 47 patients (30.7%) experienced a significant decline. Sensitivity, specificity, PPV and NPV of the DADLD were: 78.7% (95% CI 64.3; 89.3); 69.8% (95% CI 60.1, 78.3); 53.6% (95% CI 41.2; 65.7); 88.1% (95% CI 79.2; 94.1). Conclusions: The DADLD Index is a useful tool for identifying patients at higher risk of decline in ability to perform ADLs at discharge.

Prediction of age at menopause from assessment of ovarian reserve may be improved by using body mass index and smoking status

Objective: Menopause is the consequence of exhaustion of the ovarian follicular pool. AMH, an indirect hormonal marker of ovarian reserve, has been recently proposed as a predictor for age at menopause. Since BMI and smoking status are relevant independent factors associated with age at menopause we evaluated whether a model including all three of these variables could improve AMH-based prediction of age at menopause. Methods: In the present cohort study, participants were 375 eumenorrheic women aged 19–44 years and a sample of 2,635 Italian menopausal women. AMH values were obtained from the eumenorrheic women. Results: Regression analysis of the AMH data showed that a quadratic function of age provided a good description of these data plotted on a logarithmic scale, with a distribution of residual deviates that was not normal but showed significant leftskewness. Under the hypothesis that menopause can be predicted by AMH dropping below a critical threshold, a model predicting menopausal age was constructed from the AMH regression model and applied to the data on menopause. With the AMH threshold dependent on the covariates BMI and smoking status, the effects of these covariates were shown to be highly significant. Conclusions: In the present study we confirmed the good level of conformity between the distributions of observed and AMH-predicted ages at menopause, and showed that using BMI and smoking status as additional variables improves AMH-based prediction of age at menopause.

Towards the development of a best practice index for the disclosure of organisations' climate change-related corporate governance practices

The aim of this study is to develop a disclosure guide for climate-change-related corporate governance (CCCG) practices. Drawing from existing climate change policy guidelines together with content analysis of leading Australian companies’ disclosure practices, we develop a best practice index for the disclosure of CCCG practises. The best practice index is further informed, validated and refined by the contribution of experts from a range of stakeholder groups. Our index represents the most comprehensive list generated to date, utilising experts’ opinions, in relation to CCCG disclosure practices. This CCCG disclosure index would be useful for companies seeking to provide information in relation their CCCG practices

Damage assessment in reinforced concrete flexural members using modal strain energy based method

Damage assessment (damage detection, localization and quantification) in structures and appropriate retrofitting will enable the safe and efficient function of the structures. In this context, many Vibration Based Damage Identification Techniques (VBDIT) have emerged with potential for accurate damage assessment. VBDITs have achieved significant research interest in recent years, mainly due to their non-destructive nature and ability to assess inaccessible and invisible damage locations. Damage Index (DI) methods are also vibration based, but they are not based on the structural model. DI methods are fast and inexpensive compared to the model-based methods and have the ability to automate the damage detection process. DI method analyses the change in vibration response of the structure between two states so that the damage can be identified. Extensive research has been carried out to apply the DI method to assess damage in steel structures. Comparatively, there has been very little research interest in the use of DI methods to assess damage in Reinforced Concrete (RC) structures due to the complexity of simulating the predominant damage type, the flexural crack. Flexural cracks in RC beams distribute non- linearly and propagate along all directions. Secondary cracks extend more rapidly along the longitudinal and transverse directions of a RC structure than propagation of existing cracks in the depth direction due to stress distribution caused by the tensile reinforcement. Simplified damage simulation techniques (such as reductions in the modulus or section depth or use of rotational spring elements) that have been extensively used with research on steel structures, cannot be applied to simulate flexural cracks in RC elements. This highlights a big gap in knowledge and as a consequence VBDITs have not been successfully applied to damage assessment in RC structures. This research will address the above gap in knowledge and will develop and apply a modal strain energy based DI method to assess damage in RC flexural members. Firstly, this research evaluated different damage simulation techniques and recommended an appropriate technique to simulate the post cracking behaviour of RC structures. The ABAQUS finite element package was used throughout the study with properly validated material models. The damaged plasticity model was recommended as the method which can correctly simulate the post cracking behaviour of RC structures and was used in the rest of this study. Four different forms of Modal Strain Energy based Damage Indices (MSEDIs) were proposed to improve the damage assessment capability by minimising the numbers and intensities of false alarms. The developed MSEDIs were then used to automate the damage detection process by incorporating programmable algorithms. The developed algorithms have the ability to identify common issues associated with the vibration properties such as mode shifting and phase change. To minimise the effect of noise on the DI calculation process, this research proposed a sequential order of curve fitting technique. Finally, a statistical based damage assessment scheme was proposed to enhance the reliability of the damage assessment results. The proposed techniques were applied to locate damage in RC beams and slabs on girder bridge model to demonstrate their accuracy and efficiency. The outcomes of this research will make a significant contribution to the technical knowledge of VBDIT and will enhance the accuracy of damage assessment in RC structures. The application of the research findings to RC flexural members will enable their safe and efficient performance.

Individual, environmental, and meteorological predictors of daily personal ultraviolet radiation exposure measurements in a United States cohort study

Background Individual exposure to ultraviolet radiation (UVR) is challenging to measure, particularly for diseases with substantial latency periods between first exposure and diagnosis of outcome, such as cancer. To guide the choice of surrogates for long-term UVR exposure in epidemiologic studies, we assessed how well stable sun-related individual characteristics and environmental/meteorological factors predicted daily personal UVR exposure measurements. Methods We evaluated 123 United States Radiologic Technologists subjects who wore personal UVR dosimeters for 8 hours daily for up to 7 days (N = 837 days). Potential predictors of personal UVR derived from a self-administered questionnaire, and public databases that provided daily estimates of ambient UVR and weather conditions. Factors potentially related to personal UVR exposure were tested individually and in a model including all significant variables. Results The strongest predictors of daily personal UVR exposure in the full model were ambient UVR, latitude, daily rainfall, and skin reaction to prolonged sunlight (R2 = 0.30). In a model containing only environmental and meteorological variables, ambient UVR, latitude, and daily rainfall were the strongest predictors of daily personal UVR exposure (R2 = 0.25). Conclusions In the absence of feasible measures of individual longitudinal sun exposure history, stable personal characteristics, ambient UVR, and weather parameters may help estimate long-term personal UVR exposure.

Critical factors for successful housing reconstruction projects following a major disaster

Post–disaster reconstruction projects are often considered ineffectual or unproductive because on many occasions in the past they have performed extremely poorly during post-contract occupation, or have failed altogether to deliver acceptable outcomes. In some cases, these projects have already failed even before their completion, leading many sponsor aid organisations to hold these projects up as examples of how not to deliver housing reconstruction. Research into some previous unsuccessful projects has revealed that often the lack of adequate knowledge regarding the context and complexity involved in the implementation of these projects is generally responsible for their failure. Post-disaster reconstruction projects are certainly very complex in nature, often very context-specific and they can vary widely in magnitude. Despite such complexity, reconstruction projects can still have a high likelihood of success if adequate consideration is given to the importance of factors which are known to positively influence reconstruction efforts. Good outcomes can be achieved when planners and practitioners ensure best practices are embedded in the design of reconstruction projects at the time reconstruction projects they are first instigated. This paper outlines and discusses factors that significantly contribute to the successful delivery of post-disaster housing reconstruction projects.

Creative city index [Report]

The CCI Creative City Index (CCI-CCI) is a new approach to the measurement and ranking of creative global cities. It is constructed over eight principal dimensions, each with multiple distinct elements. Some of these dimensions are familiar from other global city indexes, such as the MORI or GaWC indexes, which account for the size of creative industries, the scale of cultural amenities, or the flows of creative people and global connectedness. In addition to these indicators, the CCI-CCI contributes several new dimensions. These measure the demand side of creative participation, the attention economy, user-created content, and the productivity of socially networked consumers. Global creative cities can often seem alike, in respect of per-capita measures of factors such as public spending on cultural amenities, or the number of hotels and restaurants. This is to be expected when people and capital are relatively free to move, and where economic and political institutions are broadly comparable. However, we find that different cities can register far larger differences at the level of consumer-co-creation and especially digital creative ‘microproductivity’. To explain this finding, we review the logic and rationale of creative and global city index construction and present a review of previous and contemporary indexes. We set out the case for our new model of a creative city index by showing why greater attention to consumer co-creation and microproductivity are important, as well as examining how these factors have been previously overlooked. We show how we have CCI-CCI Creative City Index measured these additional factors and indicate the effect they have on creative and global city indexes. We then present the findings from a pilot study of six cities, two Australian, two German and two from the UK, to indicate how the new index is calculated and applied. Our results indicate much greater variance arising from the new arguments between cities.

Creative city index 2012 - Data sources, calculation methods and tools [Report spreadsheet]

Spreadsheet for Creative City Index 2012

Theoretical study of two states reactivity of methane activation on iron atom and iron dimer

Density functional theory (DFT) calculations have been carried out to explore the catalytic activation of C–H bonds in methane by the iron atom, Fe, and the iron dimer, Fe2. For methane activation on an Fe atom, the calculations suggest that the activation of the first C–H bond is mediated via the triplet excited-state potential energy surface (PES), with initial excitation of Fe to the triplet state being necessary for the reaction to be energetically feasible. Compared with the breaking of the first C–H bond, the cleavage of the second C–H bond is predicted to involve a significantly higher barrier, which could explain experimental observations of the HFeCH3 complex rather than CH2FeH2 in the activation of methane by an Fe atom. For methane activation on an iron dimer, the cleavage of the first C–H bond is quite facile with a barrier only 11.2, 15.8 and 8.4 kcal/mol on the septet state energy surface at the B3LYP/6-311+G(2df,2dp), BPW91/6-311+G(2df,2dp) and M06/B3LYP level, respectively. Cleavage of the second C–H bond from HFe2CH3 involves a barrier calculated respectively as 18.0, 10.7 and 12.4 kcal/mol at the three levels. The results suggest that the elimination of hydrogen from the dihydrogen complex is a rate-determining step. Overall, our results indicate that the iron dimer Fe2 has a stronger catalytic effect on the activation of methane than the iron atom.

Ab initio studies of hydrogen desorption from low index magnesium hydride surface

The low index Magnesium hydride surfaces, MgH2(0 0 1) and MgH2(1 1 0), have been studied by ab intio Density Functional Theory (DFT) calculations. It was found that the MgH2(1 1 0) surface is more stable than MgH2(0 0 1) surface, which is in good agreement with the experimental observation. The H2 desorption barriers vary depending on the crystalline surfaces that are exposed and also the specific H atom sites involved – they are found to be generally high, due to the thermodynamic stability of the MgH2 system, and are larger for the MgH2(0 0 1) surface. The pathway for recombinative desorption of one in-plane and one bridging H atom from the MgH2(1 1 0) surface was found to be the lowest energy barrier amongst those computed (172 KJ/mol) and is in good agreement with the experimental estimates.

Adatom CCV Auger rates via the local density of states

In this letter the core-core-valence Auger transitions of an atomic impurity, both in bulk or adsorbed on a jellium-like surface, are computed within a DFT framework. The Auger rates calculated by the Fermi golden rule are compared with those determined by an approximate and simpler expression. This is based on the local density of states (LDOS) with a core hole present, in a region around the impurity nucleus. Different atoms, Na and Mg, solids, Al and Ag, and several impurity locations are considered. We obtain an excellent agreement between KL1V and KL23V rates worked out with the two approaches. The radius of the sphere in which we calculate the LDOS is the relevant parameter of the simpler approach. Its value only depends on the atomic species regardless of the location of the impurity and the type of substrate. (C) 2003 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

An approach for identifying the limit states of resilience of a water supply system

This paper presents an approach for identifying the limit states of resilience in a water supply system when influenced by different types of pressure (disturbing) forces. Understanding of systemic resilience facilitates identification of the trigger points for early managerial action to avoid further loss of ability to provide satisfactory service availability when the ability to supply water is under pressure. The approach proposed here is to illustrate the usefulness of a surrogate measure of resilience depicted in a three dimensional space encompassing independent pressure factors. That enables visualisation of the transition of the system-state (resilience) between high to low resilience regions and acts as an early warning trigger for decision-making. The necessity of a surrogate measure arises as a means of linking resilience to the identified pressures as resilience cannot be measured directly. The basis for identifying the resilience surrogate and exploring the interconnected relationships within the complete system, is derived from a meta-system model consisting of three nested sub-systems representing the water catchment and reservoir; treatment plant; and the distribution system and end-users. This approach can be used as a framework for assessing levels of resilience in different infrastructure systems by identifying a surrogate measure and its relationship to relevant pressures acting on the system.

Screen Distribution and the New King Kongs of the Online World

Like music and the news media before it, the film and television business is now facing its time of digital disruption. Major changes are being brought about in global online distribution of film and television by new players, such as Google/YouTube, Apple, Amazon, Yahoo!, Facebook, Netflix and Hulu, some of whom massively outrank in size and growth the companies that run film and television today. Content, Hollywood has always asserted, is King. But the power and profitability in screen industries have always resided in distribution. Incumbents in the screen industries tried to control the emerging dynamics of online distribution, but failed. The new, born digital, globally focused, players are developing TV network-like strategies, including commissioning content that has widened the net of what counts as television. Content may be King, but these new players may become the King Kongs of the online world.

Optical data encryption using time-dependent dynamics of refractive index changes in LiNbO3

We present a method for optical encryption of information, based on the time-dependent dynamics of writing and erasure of refractive index changes in a bulk lithium niobate medium. Information is written into the photorefractive crystal with a spatially amplitude modulated laser beam which when overexposed significantly degrades the stored data making it unrecognizable. We show that the degradation can be reversed and that a one-to-one relationship exists between the degradation and recovery rates. It is shown that this simple relationship can be used to determine the erasure time required for decrypting the scrambled index patterns. In addition, this method could be used as a straightforward general technique for determining characteristic writing and erasure rates in photorefractive media.

Review essay -- Weber L and Pickering S (2011) Globalization and borders : death at the global frontier

The pertinence of this book cannot be overemphasised. The world’s refugee crisis has reached a two‐decade high with the United Nations recently announcing that ‘displacement is the new 21st century challenge’ (UNHCR 2013). The transnational movement of dislocated peoples fleeing conflict, persecution and poverty is a global responsibility requiring nation states to collaborate for humanitarian resolutions embedded in human rights. However, in times of human rights expansionism, and the relaxation of borders for maximising free‐trade and fiscal prosperity, the movement of people experiencing immense abuse and deprivation has witnessed an increase in draconian regulation within discourses of intolerance and deterrence. Weber and Pickering cogently and emphatically emphasise the human cost of inhumane and populist government immigration and border‐entry polices underpinned by ideologies of retribution, suspicion, and demonisation. It is a moving and engaging narrative: a book that exposes state prejudice and abuse, whilst advocating for the victims who undertake perilous journeys in search of safety from lives of violence and persecution. Moreover, it is a book that pushes ideological boundaries and seeks new criminological horizons, for which the authors must be sincerely congratulated. It is a text of innovation, inspired thinking and long lasting criminological value.