Development of a log-quadratic model to describe microbial inactivation, illustrated by thermal inactivation of Clostridium botulinum

In the commercial food industry, demonstration of microbiological safety and thermal process equivalence often involves a mathematical framework that assumes log-linear inactivation kinetics and invokes concepts of decimal reduction time (DT), z values, and accumulated lethality. However, many microbes, particularly spores, exhibit inactivation kinetics that are not log linear. This has led to alternative modeling approaches, such as the biphasic and Weibull models, that relax strong log-linear assumptions. Using a statistical framework, we developed a novel log-quadratic model, which approximates the biphasic and Weibull models and provides additional physiological interpretability. As a statistical linear model, the log-quadratic model is relatively simple to fit and straightforwardly provides confidence intervals for its fitted values. It allows a DT-like value to be derived, even from data that exhibit obvious "tailing." We also showed how existing models of non-log-linear microbial inactivation, such as the Weibull model, can fit into a statistical linear model framework that dramatically simplifies their solution. We applied the log-quadratic model to thermal inactivation data for the spore-forming bacterium Clostridium botulinum and evaluated its merits compared with those of popular previously described approaches. The log-quadratic model was used as the basis of a secondary model that can capture the dependence of microbial inactivation kinetics on temperature. This model, in turn, was linked to models of spore inactivation of Sapru et al. and Rodriguez et al. that posit different physiological states for spores within a population. We believe that the log-quadratic model provides a useful framework in which to test vitalistic and mechanistic hypotheses of inactivation by thermal and other processes. Copyright © 2009, American Society for Microbiology. All Rights Reserved.

Large Scale Simulations of Hippocampal-Neocortical Interactions in a Parallel Version of Genesis

A hippocampal-CA3 memory model was constructed with PGENESIS, a recently developed version of GENESIS that allows for distributed processing of a neural network simulation. A number of neural models of the human memory system have identified the CA3 region of the hippocampus as storing the declarative memory trace. However, computational models designed to assess the viability of the putative mechanisms of storage and retrieval have generally been too abstract to allow comparison with empirical data. Recent experimental evidence has shown that selective knock-out of NMDA receptors in the CA1 of mice leads to reduced stability of firing specificity in place cells. Here a similar reduction of stability of input specificity is demonstrated in a biologically plausible neural network model of the CA3 region, under conditions of Hebbian synaptic plasticity versus an absence of plasticity. The CA3 region is also commonly associated with seizure activity. Further simulations of the same model tested the response to continuously repeating versus randomized nonrepeating input patterns. Each paradigm delivered input of equal intensity and duration. Non-repeating input patterns elicited a greater pyramidal cell spike count. This suggests that repetitive versus non-repeating neocortical inpus has a quantitatively different effect on the hippocampus. This may be relevant to the production of independent epileptogenic zones and the process of encoding new memories.

Further development of discrete computational techniques for calculation of restricted diffusion propagators in porous media

Magnetic resonance is a well-established tool for structural characterisation of porous media. Features of pore-space morphology can be inferred from NMR diffusion-diffraction plots or the time-dependence of the apparent diffusion coefficient. Diffusion NMR signal attenuation can be computed from the restricted diffusion propagator, which describes the distribution of diffusing particles for a given starting position and diffusion time. We present two techniques for efficient evaluation of restricted diffusion propagators for use in NMR porous-media characterisation. The first is the Lattice Path Count (LPC). Its physical essence is that the restricted diffusion propagator connecting points A and B in time t is proportional to the number of distinct length-t paths from A to B. By using a discrete lattice, the number of such paths can be counted exactly. The second technique is the Markov transition matrix (MTM). The matrix represents the probabilities of jumps between every pair of lattice nodes within a single timestep. The propagator for an arbitrary diffusion time can be calculated as the appropriate matrix power. For periodic geometries, the transition matrix needs to be defined only for a single unit cell. This makes MTM ideally suited for periodic systems. Both LPC and MTM are closely related to existing computational techniques: LPC, to combinatorial techniques; and MTM, to the Fokker-Planck master equation. The relationship between LPC, MTM and other computational techniques is briefly discussed in the paper. Both LPC and MTM perform favourably compared to Monte Carlo sampling, yielding highly accurate and almost noiseless restricted diffusion propagators. Initial tests indicate that their computational performance is comparable to that of finite element methods. Both LPC and MTM can be applied to complicated pore-space geometries with no analytic solution. We discuss the new methods in the context of diffusion propagator calculation in porous materials and model biological tissues.

Representing team behaviours from noisy data using player role

Due to their unobtrusive nature, vision-based approaches to tracking sports players have been preferred over wearable sensors as they do not require the players to be instrumented for each match. Unfortunately however, due to the heavy occlusion between players, variation in resolution and pose, in addition to fluctuating illumination conditions, tracking players continuously is still an unsolved vision problem. For tasks like clustering and retrieval, having noisy data (i.e. missing and false player detections) is problematic as it generates discontinuities in the input data stream. One method of circumventing this issue is to use an occupancy map, where the field is discretised into a series of zones and a count of player detections in each zone is obtained. A series of frames can then be concatenated to represent a set-play or example of team behaviour. A problem with this approach though is that the compressibility is low (i.e. the variability in the feature space is incredibly high). In this paper, we propose the use of a bilinear spatiotemporal basis model using a role representation to clean-up the noisy detections which operates in a low-dimensional space. To evaluate our approach, we used a fully instrumented field-hockey pitch with 8 fixed high-definition (HD) cameras and evaluated our approach on approximately 200,000 frames of data from a state-of-the-art real-time player detector and compare it to manually labeled data.

But how do we know they watched it? Adapting to the flipped classroom conundrum

Those who teach film and media need to use screen content to illustrate their subjects. For example, students want illustrations to accompany lectures on film or television genres. Our experience has been that student access to the film and television screen content underpinning a study of genres is not only desirable but is, in fact, crucial for effective teaching and learning outcomes. Not so long ago, a screening during or at the completion of a lecture was the expected method by which educators delivered screen content to illustrate their teaching. Even if student attendance fluctuated from week to week a quick head count confirmed that a certain number of students were physically present. It was assumed that this physical attendance encouraged students to reflect upon and contextualize the material post lecture. While simply attending a lecture will not translate into actual student learning, it does demonstrate a willingness by students to engage with the course content by making a commitment to attend a scheduled and recurring lecture and screening program. However, as flipped classroom models gain acceptance in educational institutions, this traditional lecture-screening model is giving way to online, off-site, and student-controlled mechanisms for screen content delivery and viewing. Nevertheless, care should be taken when assessing how online delivery translates into student engagement and learning. As Junco (2012) points out, “it’s not the technology that generates learning, but the ways in which the technology are used.” Discussed, debated, and embraced to varying degrees by educators, there remains no definitive model for the flipped classroom – although many models involve ‘flipping’ content and knowledge acquisition (including viewing films and television shows) from scheduled on-campus classes to online material viewed by students in advance of an on-campus lecture or class. The classroom or tutorial room then becomes a space to problem-solve, engage in collaborate learning, and advance and explain concepts. From an institutional perspective, the flipped classroom model could deliver an additional benefit beyond immediate pedagogical concerns. Tucker (2012) suggests through the flipped classroom model “all aspects of instruction can be rethought to best maximize the scarcest learning resource — time.” The narrative most often associated with this shift is that the move to online content delivery of lecture and cinematic / televisual material may also provide educators with more time to do other work such as engage in research, plan strategies to empower students. Experimentation with the flipped classroom model is playing out in various educational institutions. Yet several core concerns remain — one of these concerns is the crucial question of whether an online/digital flipped approach is more effective for student engagement and learning than the traditional lecture-screening mode for screen content delivery. Some urge caution in this regard, arguing that “new technology isn’t always supported by change management and professional development to ensure that digital isn’t just a goal within itself, but actually helps to transform education” (Fleming cited in Blain 2014). The most fundamental concern remains how do lecturers, instructors, and tutors know students have watched the films and television shows associated with a subject? The remainder of this discussion deals with these concerns, and possible solutions offered, through an analysis of the Film, Television and Screen Genres subject at the Queensland University of Technology (QUT) in Brisbane, Queensland.

External influence as an indicator of scholarly importance

Although the external influence of scholars has usually been approximated by publication and citation count, the array of scholarly activities is far more extensive. Today, new technologies, in particular Internet search engines, allow more accurate measurement of scholars' influence on societal discourse. Hence, in this article, we analyse the relation between the internal and external influence of 723 top economists using the number of pages indexed by Google and Bing as a measure of external influence. We not only identify a small association between these scholars’ internal and external influence but also a correlation between internal influence, as captured by receipt of such major academic awards as the Nobel Prize and John Bates Clark Medal, and the external prominence of the top 100 researchers (JEL Code: A11, A13, Z18).

No indications of persistent oxidative stress in response to an ironman triathlon

Introduction: Training for and competing in ultraendurance exercise events is associated with an improvement in endogenous antioxidant defenses as well as increased oxidative stress. However, consequences on health are currently unclear. Purpose: We aimed to examine the impact of training- and acute exercise-induced changes in the antioxidant capacity on the oxidant/antioxidant balance after an ironman triathlon and whether there are indications for sustained oxidative damage. Methods: Blood samples were taken from 42 well-trained male triathletes 2 d before an ironman triathlon, then immediately postrace, 1, 5, and 19 d later. Blood was analyzed for conjugated dienes (CD), malondialdehyde (MDA), oxidized low-density lipoprotein (oxLDL), oxLDL:LDL ratio, advanced oxidation protein products (AOPP), AOPP:total protein (TP) ratio, Trolox equivalent antioxidant capacity (TEAC), uric acid (UA) in plasma, and activities of superoxide dismutase (SOD), glutathione peroxidase (GSH-Px), and catalase (CAT) in erythrocytes. Results: Immediately postrace, there were significant increases in CD, AOPP, TEAC, UA (for all P < 0.001), and AOPP:TP (P < 0.01). MDA rose significantly (P < 0.01) 1 d postrace, whereas CD (P < 0.01), AOPP (P = 0.01), AOPP:TP (P < 0.05), and TEAC (P < 0.001) remained elevated. OxLDL:LDL trended to increase, whereas oxLDL significantly (P < 0.01) decreased 1 d postrace. Except for GSH-Px (P = 0.08), activities of SOD (P < 0.001) and CAT (P < 0.05) significantly decreased postrace. All oxidative stress markers had returned to prerace values 5 d postrace. Furthermore, several relationships between training status and oxidative stress markers, TEAC, and antioxidant enzyme activities were noted. Conclusions: This study indicates that despite a temporary increase in most (but not all) oxidative stress markers, there is no persistent oxidative stress in response to an ironman triathlon, probably due to training- and exercise-induced protective alterations in the antioxidant defense system.

A LIN inspired optical bus for signal isolation in multilevel or modular power electronic converters

Proposed in this paper is a low-cost, half-duplex optical communication bus for control signal isolation in modular or multilevel power electronic converters. The concept is inspired by the Local Interconnect Network (LIN) serial network protocol as used in the automotive industry. The proposed communications bus utilises readily available optical transceivers and is suitable for use with low-cost microcontrollers for distributed control of multilevel converters. As a signal isolation concept, the proposed optical bus enables very high cell count modular multilevel cascaded converters (MMCCs) for high-bandwidth, high-voltage and high-power applications. Prototype hardware is developed and the optical bus concept is validated experimentally in a 33-level MMCC converter operating at 120 Vrms and 60 Hz.

Cambios hematológicos tras un programa de promoción de actividad física en sujetos inactivos. Ensayo aleatorizado controlado

Objetivo Comparar los cambios antropométricos y bioquímicos en personas inactivas, que realizan un programa de actividad física frente a los que no lo realizan desde los Centros de Atención Primaria. Métodos Cien personas inactivas de ambos sexos, mayores de 55 años fueron aleatorizadas a un grupo experimental (n = 50) y a un grupo control (n = 50). Se realizó un programa de promoción de actividad física siguiendo los criterios del Colegio Americano de Medicina del Deporte, de 60 min cada sesión, 2 sesiones por semana, durante 3 meses. Las medidas antropométricas incluyeron el índice de masa corporal y el porcentaje graso, y como variables bioquímicas el perfil lipídico, hematíes y la creatina kinasa. Resultados Completaron el estudio 75 personas. Esta investigación no presentó cambios significativos a nivel antropométrico, ni en las variables bioquímicas del perfil lipídico. Sí se observaron efectos clínicamente relevantes en la concentración de los hematíes de las mujeres que realizaron dicho programa. Conclusiones El efecto clínico global fue pequeño en las personas que realizaron el programa, pero relevante para la salud de la población. Esta intervención produce efectos a corto plazo en la bioquímica de las personas inactivas. Abstract in English Objective Compare anthropometry and biochemical changes in inactive people who participate in a physical activity program versus those who do not from the Primary Health Care Centers. Methods One hundred inactive subjects of both genders, 55 years and older, from Torremolinos, Spain were randomized into an experimental group (n = 50) and a control group (n = 50). A program promoting physical activity was carried out following the American Medical Society for Sport's Medicine criteria. The program included sessions a week for 3 months. Antropometric measurements included body mass index and fat percentage, and such as biochemical measures: the lipid profile, erythrocytes, and creatine kinase. Results Seventy-five persons completed the study. This research did not show significant changes to anthropometric or biochemical outcomes of the lipid profile. However, there were clinically relevant effects regarding red blood cells concentration in the women who participated in this program. Conclusions Overall clinical effect was small in those participating in the program, but relevant for the health of the population. This program has short-term effects on biochemistry results of inactive subjects.

Five years of GWAS discovery

The past five years have seen many scientific and biological discoveries made through the experimental design of genome-wide association studies (GWASs). These studies were aimed at detecting variants at genomic loci that are associated with complex traits in the population and, in particular, at detecting associations between common single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) and common diseases such as heart disease, diabetes, auto-immune diseases, and psychiatric disorders. We start by giving a number of quotes from scientists and journalists about perceived problems with GWASs. We will then briefly give the history of GWASs and focus on the discoveries made through this experimental design, what those discoveries tell us and do not tell us about the genetics and biology of complex traits, and what immediate utility has come out of these studies. Rather than giving an exhaustive review of all reported findings for all diseases and other complex traits, we focus on the results for auto-immune diseases and metabolic diseases. We return to the perceived failure or disappointment about GWASs in the concluding section. © 2012 The American Society of Human Genetics.

Regional and seasonal variation in airborne grass pollen levels between cities of Australia and New Zealand

Although grass pollen is widely regarded as the major outdoor aeroallergen source in Australia and New Zealand (NZ), no assemblage of airborne pollen data for the region has been previously compiled. Grass pollen count data collected at 14 urban sites in Australia and NZ over periods ranging from 1 to 17 years were acquired, assembled and compared, revealing considerable spatiotemporal variability. Although direct comparison between these data is problematic due to methodological differences between monitoring sites, the following patterns are apparent. Grass pollen seasons tended to have more than one peak from tropics to latitudes of 37°S and single peaks at sites south of this latitude. A longer grass pollen season was therefore found at sites below 37°S, driven by later seasonal end dates for grass growth and flowering. Daily pollen counts increased with latitude; subtropical regions had seasons of both high intensity and long duration. At higher latitude sites, the single springtime grass pollen peak is potentially due to a cooler growing season and a predominance of pollen from C3 grasses. The multiple peaks at lower latitude sites may be due to a warmer season and the predominance of pollen from C4 grasses. Prevalence and duration of seasonal allergies may reflect the differing pollen seasons across Australia and NZ. It must be emphasized that these findings are tentative due to limitations in the available data, reinforcing the need to implement standardized pollen-monitoring methods across Australasia. Furthermore, spatiotemporal differences in grass pollen counts indicate that local, current, standardized pollen monitoring would assist with the management of pollen allergen exposure for patients at risk of allergic rhinitis and asthma. © 2015 Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht

A suitable method for journal bearing wear measurement

Purpose – Ideally, there is no wear in hydrodynamic lubrication regime. A small amount of wear occurs during start and stop of the machines and the amount of wear is so small that it is difficult to measure with accuracy. Various wear measuring techniques have been used where out-of-roundness was found to be the most reliable method of measuring small wear quantities in journal bearings. This technique was further developed to achieve higher accuracy in measuring small wear quantities. The method proved to be reliable as well as inexpensive. The paper aims to discuss these issues. Design/methodology/approach – In an experimental study, the effect of antiwear additives was studied on journal bearings lubricated with oil containing solid contaminants. The test duration was too long and the wear quantities achieved were too small. To minimise the test duration, short tests of about 90 min duration were conducted and wear was measured recording changes in variety of parameters related to weight, geometry and wear debris. The out-of-roundness was found to be the most effective method. This method was further refined by enlarging the out-of-roundness traces on a photocopier. The method was proved to be reliable and inexpensive. Findings – Study revealed that the most commonly used wear measurement techniques such as weight loss, roughness changes and change in particle count were not adequate for measuring small wear quantities in journal bearings. Out-of-roundness method with some refinements was found to be one of the most reliable methods for measuring small wear quantities in journal bearings working in hydrodynamic lubrication regime. By enlarging the out-of-roundness traces and determining the worn area of the bearing cross-section, weight loss in bearings was calculated, which was repeatable and reliable. Research limitations/implications – This research is a basic in nature where a rudimentary solution has been developed for measuring small wear quantities in rotary devices such as journal bearings. The method requires enlarging traces on a photocopier and determining the shape of the worn area on an out-of-roundness trace on a transparency, which is a simple but a crude method. This may require an automated procedure to determine the weight loss from the out-of-roundness traces directly. This method can be very useful in reducing test duration and measuring wear quantities with higher precision in situations where wear quantities are very small. Practical implications – This research provides a reliable method of measuring wear of circular geometry. The Talyrond equipment used for measuring the change in out-of-roundness due to wear of bearings indicates that this equipment has high potential to be used as a wear measuring device also. Measurement of weight loss from the traces is an enhanced capability of this equipment and this research may lead to the development of a modified version of Talyrond type of equipment for wear measurements in circular machine components. Originality/value – Wear measurement in hydrodynamic bearings requires long duration tests to achieve adequate wear quantities. Out-of-roundness is one of the geometrical parameters that changes with progression of wear in a circular shape components. Thus, out-of-roundness is found to be an effective wear measuring parameter that relates to change in geometry. Method of increasing the sensitivity and enlargement of out-of-roundness traces is original work through which area of worn cross-section can be determined and weight loss can be derived for materials of known density with higher precision.

A Model to Estimate the Population Contributing to the Wastewater Using Samples Collected on Census Day

An important uncertainty when estimating per capita consumption of, for example, illicit drugs by means of wastewater analysis (sometimes referred to as “sewage epidemiology”) relates to the size and variability of the de facto population in the catchment of interest. In the absence of a day-specific direct population count any indirect surrogate model to estimate population size lacks a standard to assess associated uncertainties. Therefore, the objective of this study was to collect wastewater samples at a unique opportunity, that is, on a census day, as a basis for a model to estimate the number of people contributing to a given wastewater sample. Mass loads for a wide range of pharmaceuticals and personal care products were quantified in influents of ten sewage treatment plants (STP) serving populations ranging from approximately 3500 to 500 000 people. Separate linear models for population size were estimated with the mass loads of the different chemical as the explanatory variable: 14 chemicals showed good, linear relationships, with highest correlations for acesulfame and gabapentin. De facto population was then estimated through Bayesian inference, by updating the population size provided by STP staff (prior knowledge) with measured chemical mass loads. Cross validation showed that large populations can be estimated fairly accurately with a few chemical mass loads quantified from 24-h composite samples. In contrast, the prior knowledge for small population sizes cannot be improved substantially despite the information of multiple chemical mass loads. In the future, observations other than chemical mass loads may improve this deficit, since Bayesian inference allows including any kind of information relating to population size.

Do motor vehicle crashes arise from single or multiple unique risk processes? An inquiry into crash causes and modelling

Crashes at any particular transport network location consist of a chain of events arising from a multitude of potential causes and/or contributing factors whose nature is likely to reflect geometric characteristics of the road, spatial effects of the surrounding environment, and human behavioural factors. It is postulated that these potential contributing factors do not arise from the same underlying risk process, and thus should be explicitly modelled and understood. The state of the practice in road safety network management applies a safety performance function that represents a single risk process to explain crash variability across network sites. This study aims to elucidate the importance of differentiating among various underlying risk processes contributing to the observed crash count at any particular network location. To demonstrate the principle of this theoretical and corresponding methodological approach, the study explores engineering (e.g. segment length, speed limit) and unobserved spatial factors (e.g. climatic factors, presence of schools) as two explicit sources of crash contributing factors. A Bayesian Latent Class (BLC) analysis is used to explore these two sources and to incorporate prior information about their contribution to crash occurrence. The methodology is applied to the state controlled roads in Queensland, Australia and the results are compared with the traditional Negative Binomial (NB) model. A comparison of goodness of fit measures indicates that the model with a double risk process outperforms the single risk process NB model, and thus indicating the need for further research to capture all the three crash generation processes into the SPFs.

Cardiometabolic effects of genetic upregulation of the interleukin 1 receptor antagonist: A Mendelian randomisation analysis

Background To investigate potential cardiovascular and other effects of long-term pharmacological interleukin 1 (IL-1) inhibition, we studied genetic variants that produce inhibition of IL-1, a master regulator of inflammation. Methods We created a genetic score combining the effects of alleles of two common variants (rs6743376 and rs1542176) that are located upstream of IL1RN, the gene encoding the IL-1 receptor antagonist (IL-1Ra; an endogenous inhibitor of both IL-1α and IL-1β); both alleles increase soluble IL-1Ra protein concentration. We compared effects on inflammation biomarkers of this genetic score with those of anakinra, the recombinant form of IL-1Ra, which has previously been studied in randomised trials of rheumatoid arthritis and other inflammatory disorders. In primary analyses, we investigated the score in relation to rheumatoid arthritis and four cardiometabolic diseases (type 2 diabetes, coronary heart disease, ischaemic stroke, and abdominal aortic aneurysm; 453 411 total participants). In exploratory analyses, we studied the relation of the score to many disease traits and to 24 other disorders of proposed relevance to IL-1 signalling (746 171 total participants). Findings For each IL1RN minor allele inherited, serum concentrations of IL-1Ra increased by 0·22 SD (95% CI 0·18–0·25; 12·5%; p=9·3 × 10−33), concentrations of interleukin 6 decreased by 0·02 SD (−0·04 to −0·01; −1·7%; p=3·5 × 10−3), and concentrations of C-reactive protein decreased by 0·03 SD (−0·04 to −0·02; −3·4%; p=7·7 × 10−14). We noted the effects of the genetic score on these inflammation biomarkers to be directionally concordant with those of anakinra. The allele count of the genetic score had roughly log-linear, dose-dependent associations with both IL-1Ra concentration and risk of coronary heart disease. For people who carried four IL-1Ra-raising alleles, the odds ratio for coronary heart disease was 1·15 (1·08–1·22; p=1·8 × 10−6) compared with people who carried no IL-1Ra-raising alleles; the per-allele odds ratio for coronary heart disease was 1·03 (1·02–1·04; p=3·9 × 10−10). Per-allele odds ratios were 0·97 (0·95–0·99; p=9·9 × 10−4) for rheumatoid arthritis, 0·99 (0·97–1·01; p=0·47) for type 2 diabetes, 1·00 (0·98–1·02; p=0·92) for ischaemic stroke, and 1·08 (1·04–1·12; p=1·8 × 10−5) for abdominal aortic aneurysm. In exploratory analyses, we observed per-allele increases in concentrations of proatherogenic lipids, including LDL-cholesterol, but no clear evidence of association for blood pressure, glycaemic traits, or any of the 24 other disorders studied. Modelling suggested that the observed increase in LDL-cholesterol could account for about a third of the association observed between the genetic score and increased coronary risk. Interpretation Human genetic data suggest that long-term dual IL-1α/β inhibition could increase cardiovascular risk and, conversely, reduce the risk of development of rheumatoid arthritis. The cardiovascular risk might, in part, be mediated through an increase in proatherogenic lipid concentrations. Funding UK Medical Research Council, British Heart Foundation, UK National Institute for Health Research, National Institute for Health Research Cambridge Biomedical Research Centre, European Research Council, and European Commission Framework Programme 7.