The increased popularity of mopeds and motor scooters : exploring usage patterns and safety outcomes

Increased use of powered two-wheelers (PTWs) often underlies increases in the number of reported crashes, promoting research into PTW safety. PTW riders are overrepresented in crash and injury statistics relative to exposure and, as such, are considered vulnerable road users. PTW use has increased substantially over the last decade in many developed countries. One such country is Australia, where moped and scooter use has increased at a faster rate than motorcycle use in recent years. Increased moped use is particularly evident in the State of Queensland which is one of four Australian jurisdictions where moped riding is permitted for car licence holders and a motorcycle licence is not required. A moped is commonly a small motor scooter and is limited to a maximum design speed of 50 km/h and a maximum engine cylinder capacity of 50 cubic centimetres. Scooters exceeding either of these specifications are classed as motorcycles in all Australian jurisdictions. While an extensive body of knowledge exists on motorcycle safety, some of which is relevant to moped and scooter safety, the latter PTW types have received comparatively little focused research attention. Much of the research on moped safety to date has been conducted in Europe where they have been popular since the mid 20th century, while some studies have also been conducted in the United States. This research is of limited relevance to Australia due to socio-cultural, economic, regulatory and environmental differences. Moreover, while some studies have compared motorcycles to mopeds in terms of safety, no research to date has specifically examined the differences and similarities between mopeds and larger scooters, or between larger scooters and motorcycles. To address the need for a better understanding of moped and scooter use and safety, the current program of research involved three complementary studies designed to achieve the following aims: (1) develop better knowledge and understanding of moped and scooter usage trends and patterns; and (2) determine the factors leading to differences in moped, scooter and motorcycle safety. Study 1 involved six-monthly observations of PTW types in inner city parking areas of Queensland’s capital city, Brisbane, to monitor and quantify the types of PTW in use over a two year period. Study 2 involved an analysis of Queensland PTW crash and registration data, primarily comparing the police-reported crash involvement of mopeds, scooters and motorcycles over a five year period (N = 7,347). Study 3 employed both qualitative and quantitative methods to examine moped and scooter usage in two components: (a) four focus group discussions with Brisbane-based Queensland moped and scooter riders (N = 23); and (b) a state-wide survey of Queensland moped and scooter riders (N = 192). Study 1 found that of the PTW types parked in inner city Brisbane over the study period (N = 2,642), more than one third (36.1%) were mopeds or larger scooters. The number of PTWs observed increased at each six-monthly phase, but there were no significant changes in the proportions of PTW types observed across study phases. There were no significant differences in the proportions or numbers of PTW type observed by season. Study 2 revealed some important differences between mopeds, scooters and motorcycles in terms of safety and usage through analysis of crash and registration data. All Queensland PTW registrations doubled between 2001 and 2009, but there was an almost fifteen-fold increase in moped registrations. Mopeds subsequently increased as a proportion of Queensland registered PTWs from 1.2 percent to 8.8 percent over this nine year period. Moped and scooter crashes increased at a faster rate than motorcycle crashes over the five year study period from July 2003 to June 2008, reflecting their relatively greater increased usage. Crash rates per 10,000 registrations for the study period were only slightly higher for mopeds (133.4) than for motorcycles and scooters combined (124.8), but estimated crash rates per million vehicle kilometres travelled were higher for mopeds (6.3) than motorcycles and scooters (1.7). While the number of crashes increased for each PTW type over the study period, the rate of crashes per 10,000 registrations declined by 40 percent for mopeds compared with 22 percent for motorcycles and scooters combined. Moped and scooter crashes were generally less severe than motorcycle crashes and this was related to the particular crash characteristics of the PTW types rather than to the PTW types themselves. Compared to motorcycle and moped crashes, scooter crashes were less likely to be single vehicle crashes, to involve a speeding or impaired rider, to involve poor road conditions, or to be attributed to rider error. Scooter and moped crashes were more likely than motorcycle crashes to occur on weekdays, in lower speed zones and at intersections. Scooter riders were older on average (39) than moped (32) and motorcycle (35) riders, while moped riders were more likely to be female (36%) than scooter (22%) or motorcycle riders (7%). The licence characteristics of scooter and motorcycle riders were similar, with moped riders more likely to be licensed outside of Queensland and less likely to hold a full or open licence. The PTW type could not be identified in 15 percent of all cases, indicating a need for more complete recording of vehicle details in the registration data. The focus groups in Study 3a and the survey in Study 3b suggested that moped and scooter riders are a heterogeneous population in terms of demographic characteristics, riding experience, and knowledge and attitudes regarding safety and risk. The self-reported crash involvement of Study 3b respondents suggests that most moped and scooter crashes result in no injury or minor injury and are not reported to police. Study 3 provided some explanation for differences observed in Study 2 between mopeds and scooters in terms of crash involvement. On the whole, scooter riders were older, more experienced, more likely to have undertaken rider training and to value rider training programs. Scooter riders were also more likely to use protective clothing and to seek out safety-related information. This research has some important practical implications regarding moped and scooter use and safety. While mopeds and scooters are generally similar in terms of usage, and their usage has increased, scooter riders appear to be safer than moped riders due to some combination of superior skills and safer riding behaviour. It is reasonable to expect that mopeds and scooters will remain popular in Queensland in future and that their usage may further increase, along with that of motorcycles. Future policy and planning should consider potential options for encouraging moped riders to acquire better riding skills and greater safety awareness. While rider training and licensing appears an obvious potential countermeasure, the effectiveness of rider training has not been established and other options should also be strongly considered. Such options might include rider education and safety promotion, while interventions could also target other road users and urban infrastructure. Future research is warranted in regard to moped and scooter safety, particularly where the use of those PTWs has increased substantially from low levels. Research could address areas such as rider training and licensing (including program evaluations), the need for more detailed and reliable data (particularly crash and exposure data), protective clothing use, risks associated with lane splitting and filtering, and tourist use of mopeds. Some of this research would likely be relevant to motorcycle use and safety, as well as that of mopeds and scooters.

Generating new economic activity through design

Firms face the challenge of remaining competitive through both entrepreneurial activities and the strategic management of resources. Strategic entrepreneurship around notions of acquiring, bundling and leveraging resources to create value for customers and firm competitive advantage has been studied in relation to large established firms (Hitt et al 2010) but largely overlooked in studies of small and medium enterprises. Recent theorizing regarding the processes by which firms orchestrate resources to create new economic activity (Sirmon et al, 2011) has focused on the managerial capabilities of structuring, bundling and leveraging resources across the firms breadth, depth and lifecycle. This approach offers a potential framework for investigating processes of economic activity and strategic renewal (Agarwal & Helfat, 2009).

Implementing an enhanced repository statistics system for QUT ePrints

Queensland University of Technology (QUT) was one of the first universities in Australia to establish an institutional repository. Launched in November 2003, the repository (QUT ePrints) uses the EPrints open source repository software (from Southampton) and has enjoyed the benefit of an institutional deposit mandate since January 2004. Currently (April 2012), the repository holds over 36,000 records, including 17,909 open access publications with another 2,434 publications embargoed but with mediated access enabled via the ‘Request a copy’ button which is a feature of the EPrints software. At QUT, the repository is managed by the library.QUT ePrints (http://eprints.qut.edu.au) The repository is embedded into a number of other systems at QUT including the staff profile system and the University’s research information system. It has also been integrated into a number of critical processes related to Government reporting and research assessment. Internally, senior research administrators often look to the repository for information to assist with decision-making and planning. While some statistics could be drawn from the advanced search feature and the existing download statistics feature, they were rarely at the level of granularity or aggregation required. Getting the information from the ‘back end’ of the repository was very time-consuming for the Library staff. In 2011, the Library funded a project to enhance the range of statistics which would be available from the public interface of QUT ePrints. The repository team conducted a series of focus groups and individual interviews to identify and prioritise functionality requirements for a new statistics ‘dashboard’. The participants included a mix research administrators, early career researchers and senior researchers. The repository team identified a number of business criteria (eg extensible, support available, skills required etc) and then gave each a weighting. After considering all the known options available, five software packages (IRStats, ePrintsStats, AWStats, BIRT and Google Urchin/Analytics) were thoroughly evaluated against a list of 69 criteria to determine which would be most suitable. The evaluation revealed that IRStats was the best fit for our requirements. It was deemed capable of meeting 21 out of the 31 high priority criteria. Consequently, IRStats was implemented as the basis for QUT ePrints’ new statistics dashboards which were launched in Open Access Week, October 2011. Statistics dashboards are now available at four levels; whole-of-repository level, organisational unit level, individual author level and individual item level. The data available includes, cumulative total deposits, time series deposits, deposits by item type, % fulltexts, % open access, cumulative downloads, time series downloads, downloads by item type, author ranking, paper ranking (by downloads), downloader geographic location, domains, internal v external downloads, citation data (from Scopus and Web of Science), most popular search terms, non-search referring websites. The data is displayed in charts, maps and table format. The new statistics dashboards are a great success. Feedback received from staff and students has been very positive. Individual researchers have said that they have found the information to be very useful when compiling a track record. It is now very easy for senior administrators (including the Deputy Vice Chancellor-Research) to compare the full-text deposit rates (i.e. mandate compliance rates) across organisational units. This has led to increased ‘encouragement’ from Heads of School and Deans in relation to the provision of full-text versions.

Taxation of multinational banks : using formulary apportionment to reflect economic reality

The taxation of multinational banks is currently governed by general principles of international tax. However, there are characteristics exclusive to multinational banks that may warrant consideration of a separate taxing regime, as the current system does not produce a result that accurately reflects the economic source of the income or the location of the economic activity. The suggested alternative is unitary taxation using global formulary apportionment.

Fusing loop detector and probe vehicle data to estimate travel time statistics on signalized urban networks

This article presents a methodology that integrates cumulative plots with probe vehicle data for estimation of travel time statistics (average, quartile) on urban networks. The integration reduces relative deviation among the cumulative plots so that the classical analytical procedure of defining the area between the plots as the total travel time can be applied. For quartile estimation, a slicing technique is proposed. The methodology is validated with real data from Lucerne, Switzerland and it is concluded that the travel time estimates from the proposed methodology are statistically equivalent to the observed values.

Environmental and economic evaluation of N fertilizer rates in a maize crop in Italy : a spatial and temporal analysis using crop models

Crop simulation models have the potential to assess the risk associated with the selection of a specific N fertilizer rate, by integrating the effects of soil-crop interactions on crop growth under different pedo-climatic and management conditions. The objective of this study was to simulate the environmental and economic impact (nitrate leaching and N2O emissions) of a spatially variable N fertilizer application in an irrigated maize field in Italy. The validated SALUS model was run with 5 nitrogen rates scenarios, 50, 100, 150, 200, and 250 kg N ha−1, with the latter being the N fertilization adopted by the farmer. The long-term (25 years) simulations were performed on two previously identified spatially and temporally stable zones, a high yielding and low yielding zone. The simulation results showed that N fertilizer rate can be reduced without affecting yield and net return. The marginal net return was on average higher for the high yield zone, with values ranging from 1550 to 2650 € ha−1 for the 200 N and 1485 to 2875 € ha−1 for the 250 N. N leaching varied between 16.4 and 19.3 kg N ha−1 for the 200 N and the 250 N in the high yield zone. In the low yield zone, the 250 N had a significantly higher N leaching. N2O emissions varied between 0.28 kg N2O ha−1 for the 50 kg N ha−1 rate to a maximum of 1.41 kg N2O ha−1 for the 250 kg N ha−1 rate.

Security constrained economic dispatch considering wind energy conversion systems

The available wind power is stochastic and requires appropriate tools in the OPF model for economic and reliable power system operation. This paper exhibit the OPF formulation with factors involved in the intermittency of wind power. Weibull distribution is adopted to find the stochastic wind speed and power distribution. The reserve requirement is evaluated based on the wind distribution and risk of under/over estimation of the wind power. In addition, the Wind Energy Conversion System (WECS) is represented by Doubly Fed Induction Generator (DFIG) based wind farms. The reactive power capability for DFIG based wind farm is also analyzed. The study is performed on IEEE-30 bus system with wind farm located at different buses and with different wind profiles. Also the reactive power capacity to be installed in the wind farm to maintain a satisfactory voltage profile under the various wind flow scenario is demonstrated.

An analysis of construction productivity in Malaysia

The construction industry is an industry of major strategic importance. Its level of productivity has a significant effect on national economic growth. Productivity indicators are examined. The indicators consist of labour productivity, capital productivity, labour competitiveness, capital intensity and added value content of data, which are obtained from the published census/biannual surveys of the construction industry between the years 1999 and 2011 from the Department of Statistics of Malaysia. The results indicated that there is an improvement in the labour productivity, but the value-added content is declining. The civil engineering and special trades subsectors are more productive than the residential and non-residential subsectors in terms of labour productivity because machine-for-labour substitution is a more important process in those subsectors. The capital-intensive characteristics of civil engineering and special trade works enable these subsectors to achieve higher added value per labour cost but not the capital productivity. The added value per labour cost is lower in larger organizations despite higher capital productivity. However, the capital intensity is lower and unit labour cost is higher in the larger organizations.

Agronomic and economic evaluation of irrigation strategies on cotton lint yield in Australia

Cotton is one of the most important irrigated crops in subtropical Australia. In recent years, cotton production has been severely affected by the worst drought in recorded history, with the 2007–08 growing season recording the lowest average cotton yield in 30 years. The use of a crop simulation model to simulate the long-term temporal distribution of cotton yields under different levels of irrigation and the marginal value for each unit of water applied is important in determining the economic feasibility of current irrigation practices. The objectives of this study were to: (i) evaluate the CROPGRO-Cotton simulation model for studying crop growth under deficit irrigation scenarios across ten locations in New South Wales (NSW) and Queensland (Qld); (ii) evaluate agronomic and economic responses to water inputs across the ten locations; and (iii) determine the economically optimal irrigation level. The CROPGRO-Cotton simulation model was evaluated using 2 years of experimental data collected at Kingsthorpe, Qld. The model was further evaluated using data from nine locations between northern NSW and southern Qld. Long-term simulations were based on the prevalent furrowirrigation practice of refilling the soil profile when the plant -available soil water content is<50%. The model closely estimated lint yield for all locations evaluated. Our results showed that the amounts of water needed to maximise profit and maximise yield are different, which has economic and environmental implications. Irrigation needed to maximise profits varied with both agronomic and economic factors, which can be quite variable with season and location. Therefore, better tools and information that consider the agronomic and economic implications of irrigation decisions need to be developed and made available to growers.

Earned value management insights using inferential statistics

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to summarise a successfully defended doctoral thesis. The main purpose of this paper is to provide a summary of the scope, and main issues raised in the thesis so that readers undertaking studies in the same or connected areas may be aware of current contributions to the topic. The secondary aims are to frame the completed thesis in the context of doctoral-level research in project management as well as offer ideas for further investigation which would serve to extend scientific knowledge on the topic. Design/methodology/approach – Research reported in this paper is based on a quantitative study using inferential statistics aimed at better understanding the actual and potential usage of earned value management (EVM) as applied to external projects under contract. Theories uncovered during the literature review were hypothesized and tested using experiential data collected from 145 EVM practitioners with direct experience on one or more external projects under contract that applied the methodology. Findings – The results of this research suggest that EVM is an effective project management methodology. The principles of EVM were shown to be significant positive predictors of project success on contracted efforts and to be a relatively greater positive predictor of project success when using fixed-price versus cost-plus (CP) type contracts. Moreover, EVM's work-breakdown structure (WBS) utility was shown to positively contribute to the formation of project contracts. The contribution was not significantly different between fixed-price and CP contracted projects, with exceptions in the areas of schedule planning and payment planning. EVM's “S” curve benefited the administration of project contracts. The contribution of the S-curve was not significantly different between fixed-price and CP contracted projects. Furthermore, EVM metrics were shown to also be important contributors to the administration of project contracts. The relative contribution of EVM metrics to projects under fixed-price versus CP contracts was not significantly different, with one exception in the area of evaluating and processing payment requests. Practical implications – These results have important implications for project practitioners, EVM advocates, as well as corporate and governmental policy makers. EVM should be considered for all projects – not only for its positive contribution to project contract development and administration, for its contribution to project success as well, regardless of contract type. Contract type should not be the sole determining factor in the decision whether or not to use EVM. More particularly, the more fixed the contracted project cost, the more the principles of EVM explain the success of the project. The use of EVM mechanics should also be used in all projects regardless of contract type. Payment planning using a WBS should be emphasized in fixed-price contracts using EVM in order to help mitigate performance risk. Schedule planning using a WBS should be emphasized in CP contracts using EVM in order to help mitigate financial risk. Similarly, EVM metrics should be emphasized in fixed-price contracts in evaluating and processing payment requests. Originality/value – This paper provides a summary of cutting-edge research work and a link to the published thesis that researchers can use to help them understand how the research methodology was applied as well as how it can be extended.

Cultural factors affecting tertiary education access for Bundjalung men

Despite documented changes to mainstream educational systems, Indigenous educational achievements are still at critically low levels across all phases of formal education. According to the Australian Bureau of Statistics (2011) Indigenous students are still less likely than non-Indigenous students to complete their final years of schooling (45% compared with 77% in 2009); tertiary level entry and outcomes are also significantly lower than non-Indigenous entry and outcomes. Although significant research has focused on the area of Indigenous education, in particular, identifying and making recommendations on how to close educational gaps between Indigenous and non-Indigenous people, these studies have failed to bring about the change needed and to engage successfully with Indigenous communities and draw on Indigenous communities’ insights for best practice. This thesis focuses on Indigenous perspectives and takes a closer look at the cultural factors that impact on tertiary education access for Indigenous young men who come from a Bundjalung community on the far north coast of northern New South Wales. To date, this community has not been the focus of serious postgraduate study. Their experiences and the values and ideas of their community have not been investigated. To do this, the study uses an Indigenous methodological framework. It draws on Indigenous Standpoint Theory to analyse data through concepts of the cultural interface and tensions (Nakata, 2007, pp. 195-217). The study’s framing also draws on decolonising methods (Porsanger, 2004; Smith, 1999) and Indigenist research methods (Rigney, 1997). Such methodologies are intended to benefit both the research participants (community members) and the researcher. In doing so, the study draws on Creswell’s (2008) methods of restorying and retelling to analyse the participants’ interviews and yarns about their lives and experiences relating to tertiary educational access. The research process occurred in multiple stages: (1) selection of research sites, (2) granting of access which was requested through consultation with local Aboriginal Elders and through the local Aboriginal Lands Council, (3) conducting of interviews with participants/ data collection, (4) analysis of data, (5) documentation of findings, (6) theory development, and (7) reporting back to the nominated Indigenous community on the progress and findings of the research. The benefits of this research are numerous. First, this study addresses an issue that has been identified from within the local Aboriginal community as an issue of high precedence, looking at the cultural factors surrounding the underrepresentation of Indigenous people accessing tertiary education. This is not only of local significance but has been identified in the literature as a local, national and international area of concern amongst Indigenous peoples (Department of Economic and Social Affairs, 2009; Herbert, 2010; King, 2011). Secondly, the study draws on local Indigenous knowledges and learning processes from within a Bundjalung community to gain inside perspectives, namely the cultural factors that are being expressed from a range of Indigenous community members – young men, community Elders and community members – and finding out what they perceive inhibit and/or promote tertiary education participation within their community. Such perspectives are rarely heard. Finally, recommendations made from this study are aimed at revealing investigative styles that may be utilised by Western institutions to improve access for Indigenous young men living in the Narlumdarlum1 region in the tertiary context.

Can slide positivity rates predict malaria transmission?

Background: Malaria is a significant threat to population health in the border areas of Yunnan Province, China. How to accurately measure malaria transmission is an important issue. This study aimed to examine the role of slide positivity rates (SPR) in malaria transmission in Mengla County, Yunnan Province, China. Methods: Data on annual malaria cases, SPR and socio-economic factors for the period of 1993 to 2008 were obtained from the Center for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) and the Bureau of Statistics, Mengla, China. Multiple linear regression models were conducted to evaluate the relationship between socio-ecologic factors and malaria incidence. Results: The results show that SPR was significantly positively associated with the malaria incidence rates. The SPR (beta = 1.244, p = 0.000) alone and combination (SPR, beta = 1.326, p < 0.001) with other predictors can explain about 85% and 95% of variation in malaria transmission, respectively. Every 1% increase in SPR corresponded to an increase of 1.76/100,000 in malaria incidence rates. Conclusion: SPR is a strong predictor of malaria transmission, and can be used to improve the planning and implementation of malaria elimination programmes in Mengla and other similar locations. SPR might also be a useful indicator of malaria early warning systems in China.

Spatial and temporal analysis of Barmah Forest virus disease in Queensland, Australia

Barmah Forest virus (BFV) disease is one of the most widespread mosquito-borne diseases in Australia. The number of outbreaks and the incidence rate of BFV in Australia have attracted growing concerns about the spatio-temporal complexity and underlying risk factors of BFV disease. A large number of notifications has been recorded continuously in Queensland since 1992. Yet, little is known about the spatial and temporal characteristics of the disease. I aim to use notification data to better understand the effects of climatic, demographic, socio-economic and ecological risk factors on the spatial epidemiology of BFV disease transmission, develop predictive risk models and forecast future disease risks under climate change scenarios. Computerised data files of daily notifications of BFV disease and climatic variables in Queensland during 1992-2008 were obtained from Queensland Health and Australian Bureau of Meteorology, respectively. Projections on climate data for years 2025, 2050 and 2100 were obtained from Council of Scientific Industrial Research Organisation. Data on socio-economic, demographic and ecological factors were also obtained from relevant government departments as follows: 1) socio-economic and demographic data from Australian Bureau of Statistics; 2) wetlands data from Department of Environment and Resource Management and 3) tidal readings from Queensland Department of Transport and Main roads. Disease notifications were geocoded and spatial and temporal patterns of disease were investigated using geostatistics. Visualisation of BFV disease incidence rates through mapping reveals the presence of substantial spatio-temporal variation at statistical local areas (SLA) over time. Results reveal high incidence rates of BFV disease along coastal areas compared to the whole area of Queensland. A Mantel-Haenszel Chi-square analysis for trend reveals a statistically significant relationship between BFV disease incidence rates and age groups (ƒÓ2 = 7587, p<0.01). Semi-variogram analysis and smoothed maps created from interpolation techniques indicate that the pattern of spatial autocorrelation was not homogeneous across the state. A cluster analysis was used to detect the hot spots/clusters of BFV disease at a SLA level. Most likely spatial and space-time clusters are detected at the same locations across coastal Queensland (p<0.05). The study demonstrates heterogeneity of disease risk at a SLA level and reveals the spatial and temporal clustering of BFV disease in Queensland. Discriminant analysis was employed to establish a link between wetland classes, climate zones and BFV disease. This is because the importance of wetlands in the transmission of BFV disease remains unclear. The multivariable discriminant modelling analyses demonstrate that wetland types of saline 1, riverine and saline tidal influence were the most significant risk factors for BFV disease in all climate and buffer zones, while lacustrine, palustrine, estuarine and saline 2 and saline 3 wetlands were less important. The model accuracies were 76%, 98% and 100% for BFV risk in subtropical, tropical and temperate climate zones, respectively. This study demonstrates that BFV disease risk varied with wetland class and climate zone. The study suggests that wetlands may act as potential breeding habitats for BFV vectors. Multivariable spatial regression models were applied to assess the impact of spatial climatic, socio-economic and tidal factors on the BFV disease in Queensland. Spatial regression models were developed to account for spatial effects. Spatial regression models generated superior estimates over a traditional regression model. In the spatial regression models, BFV disease incidence shows an inverse relationship with minimum temperature, low tide and distance to coast, and positive relationship with rainfall in coastal areas whereas in whole Queensland the disease shows an inverse relationship with minimum temperature and high tide and positive relationship with rainfall. This study determines the most significant spatial risk factors for BFV disease across Queensland. Empirical models were developed to forecast the future risk of BFV disease outbreaks in coastal Queensland using existing climatic, socio-economic and tidal conditions under climate change scenarios. Logistic regression models were developed using BFV disease outbreak data for the existing period (2000-2008). The most parsimonious model had high sensitivity, specificity and accuracy and this model was used to estimate and forecast BFV disease outbreaks for years 2025, 2050 and 2100 under climate change scenarios for Australia. Important contributions arising from this research are that: (i) it is innovative to identify high-risk coastal areas by creating buffers based on grid-centroid and the use of fine-grained spatial units, i.e., mesh blocks; (ii) a spatial regression method was used to account for spatial dependence and heterogeneity of data in the study area; (iii) it determined a range of potential spatial risk factors for BFV disease; and (iv) it predicted the future risk of BFV disease outbreaks under climate change scenarios in Queensland, Australia. In conclusion, the thesis demonstrates that the distribution of BFV disease exhibits a distinct spatial and temporal variation. Such variation is influenced by a range of spatial risk factors including climatic, demographic, socio-economic, ecological and tidal variables. The thesis demonstrates that spatial regression method can be applied to better understand the transmission dynamics of BFV disease and its risk factors. The research findings show that disease notification data can be integrated with multi-factorial risk factor data to develop build-up models and forecast future potential disease risks under climate change scenarios. This thesis may have implications in BFV disease control and prevention programs in Queensland.

What are the implications of peri-urban agriculture on food security in Australian cities?

Background: Periurban agriculture refers to agricultural practice occurring in areas with mixed rural and urban features. It is responsible 25% of the total gross value of economic production in Australia, despite only comprising 3% of the land used for agriculture. As populations grows and cities expand, they are constantly absorbing surrounding fringe areas, thus creating a new fringe, further from the city causing the periurban region to constantly shift outwards. Periurban regions are fundamental in the provision of fresh food to city populations and residential (and industrial) expansion taking over agricultural land has been noted as a major worldwide concern. Another major concern around the increase in urbanisation and resultant decrease in periurban agriculture is its potential effect on food security. Food security is the availability or access to nutritionally-adequate, culturally-relevant and safe foods in culturally-appropriate ways. Thus food insecurity occurs when access to or availability of these foods is compromised. There is an important level of connectedness between food security and food production and a decrease in periurban agriculture may have adverse effects on food security. A decrease in local, seasonal produce may result in a decrease in the availability of products and an increase in cost, as food must travel greater distances, incurring extra costs present at the consumer level. Currently, few Australian studies exist examining the change in periurban agriculture over time. Such information may prove useful for future health policy and interventions as well as infrastructure planning. The aim of this study is to investigate changes in periurban agriculture among capital cities of Australia. Methods: We compared data pertaining to selected commodities from the Australian Bureau of Statistics 2000-01 and 2005 -2006 Agricultural Census. This survey is distributed online or via mail on a five-yearly basis to approximately 175,000 Agricultural business to ascertain information on a range of factors, such as types of crops, livestock and land preparation practices. For the purpose of this study we compared the land being used for total crops, and cereal , oil seed, legume, fruit and vegetable crops separately. Data was analysed using repeated measures anova in spss. Results: Overall, total area available for crops in urbanised areas of Australia increased slightly by 1.8%. However, Sydney, Melbourne, Adelaide and Perth experienced decreases in the area available for fruit crops by 11%, 5%,and 4% respectively. Furthermore, Brisbane and Perth experienced decreases in land available for vegetable crops by 28% and 14% respectively. Finally, Sydney, Adelaide and Perth experienced decreases in land available for cereal crops by 10 – 79%. Conclusions: These findings suggest that population increases and consequent urban sprawl may be resulting in a decrease in peri-urban agriculture, specifically for several core food groups including fruit, breads and grain based foods. In doing so, access to or availability of these foods may be limited, and the cost of these foods is likely to increase, which may compromise food insecurity for certain sub-groups of the population.