Stochastic analysis of transit route segments' passenger load variation for capacity & quality of service assessment

This study uses weekday Automatic Fare Collection (AFC) data on a premium bus line in Brisbane, Australia •Stochastic analysis is compared to peak hour factor (PHF) analysis for insight into passenger loading variability •Hourly design load factor (e.g. 88th percentile) is found to be a useful method of modeling a segment’s passenger demand time-history across a study weekday, for capacity and QoS assessment •Hourly coefficient of variation of load factor is found to be a useful QoS and operational assessment measure, particularly through its relationship with hourly average load factor, and with design load factor •An assessment table based on hourly coefficient of variation of load factor is developed from the case study

Can we make our homes more bushfire responsive?

Live radio interview with Radio Adelaide, wherein Dr Ian Weir discusses stragegies that home owners can deploy to make their homes safer in bushfires. Produced by Jeremy Rochow, Interviewed by Ellie Cooper.

Bushfire responsive design : reconciling biodiversity conservation and bushfire safety with daily life

30 minute invited presentation on design-led bushfire risk mitigatition stategies for reconciling the two (otherwise) opposing managment goals of bushfire safety and biodiversity conservation. Targeted at the S E Queensland national audience participants.

Growing demand for emergency department services : associated factors and perspective of patients

This thesis demonstrates how patients' perceived urgency affects their decision to use public hospital emergency departments. The findings inform public health policy solutions aimed at reducing rapid growth in emergency department utilisation which results in congestion and affects the safety, satisfaction, and the quality of care. This research identified that patients attending emergency departments did so based on the perception of their own health status and beliefs that emergency departments were the most suitable location for their care. Blaming patients as "frequent flyers" or "inappropriate users" ignores the complex and multi-factorial nature of the genuine need for urgent medical care felt by patients.

Automotive modal lock-in: The role of path dependence and large socio-economic regimes in market failure

This paper addresses less recognised factors which influence the diffusion of a particular technology. While an innovation’s attributes and performance are paramount, many fail because of external factors which favour an alternative. This paper, with theoretic input from diffusion, lock-in and path-dependency, presents a qualitative study of external factors that influenced the evolution of transportation in USA. This historical account reveals how one technology and its emergent systems become dominant while other choices are overridden by socio-political, economic and technological interests which include not just the manufacturing and service industries associated with the automobile but also government and market stakeholders. Termed here as a large socio-economic regime (LSER),its power in ensuring lock-in and continued path-dependency is shown to pass through three stages, weakening eventually as awareness improves. The study extends to transport trends in China, Korea, Indonesia and Malaysia and they all show the dominant role of an LSER. As transportation policy is increasingly accountable to address both demand and environmental concerns and innovators search for solutions, this paper presents important knowledge for innovators, marketers and policy makers for commercial and societal reasons, especially when negative externalities associated with an incumbent transportation technology may lead to market failure.

A framework for understanding and generating integrated solutions for residential peak energy demand

Supplying peak energy demand in a cost effective, reliable manner is a critical focus for utilities internationally. Successfully addressing peak energy concerns requires understanding of all the factors that affect electricity demand especially at peak times. This paper is based on past attempts of proposing models designed to aid our understanding of the influences on residential peak energy demand in a systematic and comprehensive way. Our model has been developed through a group model building process as a systems framework of the problem situation to model the complexity within and between systems and indicate how changes in one element might flow on to others. It is comprised of themes (social, technical and change management options) networked together in a way that captures their influence and association with each other and also their influence, association and impact on appliance usage and residential peak energy demand. The real value of the model is in creating awareness, understanding and insight into the complexity of residential peak energy demand and in working with this complexity to identify and integrate the social, technical and change management option themes and their impact on appliance usage and residential energy demand at peak times.

Application of a Bayesian Network complex system model to a successful community electricity demand reduction program

Utilities worldwide are focused on supplying peak electricity demand reliably and cost effectively, requiring a thorough understanding of all the factors influencing residential electricity use at peak times. An electricity demand reduction project based on comprehensive residential consumer engagement was established within an Australian community in 2008, and by 2011, peak demand had decreased to below pre-intervention levels. This paper applied field data discovered through qualitative in-depth interviews of 22 residential households at the community to a Bayesian Network complex system model to examine whether the system model could explain successful peak demand reduction in the case study location. The knowledge and understanding acquired through insights into the major influential factors and the potential impact of changes to these factors on peak demand would underpin demand reduction intervention strategies for a wider target group.

Barriers, drivers and enablers for transitioning towards innovation in the Australian water sector

The Australian water sector needs to adapt to effectively deal with the impacts of climate change on its systems. Challenges as a result of climate change include increasingly extreme occurrences of weather events including flooding and droughts (Pittock, 2011). In response to such challenges, the National Water Commission in Australia has identified the need for the water sector to transition towards being readily adaptable and able to respond to complex needs for a variety of supply and demand scenarios (National Water Commission, 2013). To successfully make this transition, the sector will need to move away from business as usual, and proactively pursue and adopt innovative approaches and technologies as a means to successfully address the impacts of climate change on the Australian water sector. In order to effectively respond to specific innovation challenges related to the sector, including climate change, it is first necessary to possess a foundational understanding about the key elements related to innovation in the sector. This paper presents this base level understanding, identifying the key barriers, drivers and enablers, and elements for innovative practise in the water sector. After initially inspecting the literature around the challenges stemming from climate change faced by the sector, the paper then examines the findings from the initial two rounds of a modified Delphi study, conducted with experts from the Australian water sector, including participants from research, government and industry backgrounds. The key barriers, drivers and enablers for innovation in the sector identified during the initial phase of the study formed the basis for the remainder of the investigation. Key elements investigated were: barriers – scepticism, regulation systems, inconsistent policy; drivers – influence of policy, resource scarcity, thought leadership; enablers – framing the problem, effective regulations, community acceptance. There is a convincing argument for the water sector transitioning to a more flexible, adaptive and responsive system in the face of challenges resulting from climate change. However, without first understanding the challenges and opportunities around making this transition, the likelihood of success is limited. For that reason, this paper takes the first step in understanding the elements surrounding innovation in the Australian water sector.

Abatement of aqueous anionic contaminants by thermo-responsive nanocomposites: (Poly(N-isopropylacrylamide))-co-silylanized Magnesium/Aluminun layered double hydroxides

A series of novel thermo-responsive composite sorbents, were prepared by free-radical co-polymerization of N-isopropylacrylamide (NIPAm) and the silylanized Mg/Al layered double hydroxides (SiLDHs), named as PNIPAm-co-SiLDHs. For keeping the high affinity of Mg/Al layered double hydroxides towards anions, the layered structure of LDHs was assumed to be reserved in PNIPAm-co-SiLDHs by the silanization of the wet LDH plates as evidenced by the X-ray powder diffraction. The sorption capacity of PNIPAm-co-SiLDH (13.5 mg/g) for Orange-II from water was found to be seven times higher than that of PNIPAm (2.0 mg/g), and the sorption capacities of arsenate onto PNIPAm-co-SiLDH are also greater than that onto PNIPAm, for both As(III) and As(V). These sorption results suggest that reserved LDH structure played a significant role in enhancing the sorption capacities. NO3− intercalated LDHs composite showed the stronger sorption capacity for Orange-II than that of CO32−. After sorption, the PNIPAm-co-SiLDH may be removed from water because of its gel-like nature, and may be easily regenerated contributing to the accelerated desorption of anionic contaminants from PNIPAm-co-SiLDHs by the unique phase-transfer feature through slightly heating (to 40 °C). These recyclable and regeneratable properties of thermo-responsive nanocomposites facilitate its potential application in the in-situ remediation of organic and inorganic anions from contaminated water.

Improved residential electricity demand management through analysis of the customer perspective

Peak electricity demand requires substantial investment to update transmission, distribution and generation infrastructure. A successful community peak demand reduction project was examined to identify residential consumer motivational and contextual factors involved in their decision to adopt/not adopt interventions. Energy professionals actively worked to achieve community 'peer' membership and by becoming a trusted information source, facilitated voluntary home energy assessment requests from over 80% of the residential community. By combining and tailoring interventions to the specific needs and motivations of individual householders and the community, interventions promoting energy conservation and efficiency can be effective in achieving sustained reduction in peak demand.