454 resultados para Decision taking
Resumo:
Participation in extreme sports is enjoying incredible growth while more traditional recreational activities such as golf are struggling to maintain numbers. Theoretical perspectives on extreme sports and extreme sport participants have assumed that participation is about risk-taking. However, these theory-driven methodologies may reflect judgments that do not necessarily relate to participants' lived experience. In this paper I review current risk-oriented perspectives on extreme sports and present research findings that question this assumed relationship between extreme sports and risk and thus reposition the experience in a hitherto unexplored manner. Risk taking is not the focus. Participants acknowledge that the potential outcome of a mismanaged mistake or accident could be death. However, accepting this potential outcome does not mean that they search for risk. Participants argue that many everyday life events (e.g., driving) are high-risk events. Participants undertake detailed preparation in order to minimise the possibility of negative outcomes because extreme sports trigger a range of positive experiential outcomes. The study is significant as it followed a hermeneutic phenomenological process which did not presuppose a risk-taking orientation. Hermeneutic phenomenology allows for a multitude of data sources including interviews (10 male and 5 female extreme sports participants, ages 30 to 72 years), auto-biographies, videos and other firsthand accounts. This process allowed this unexpected perspective to emerge more clearly.
Resumo:
know personally. They also communicate with other members of the network who are the friends of their friends and may be friends of their friend’s network. They share their experiences and opinions within the social network about an item which may be a product or service. The user faces the problem of evaluating trust in a service or service provider before making a choice. Opinions, reputations and ecommendations will influence users' choice and usage of online resources. Recommendations may be received through a chain of friends of friends, so the problem for the user is to be able to evaluate various types of trust recommendations and reputations. This opinion or ecommendation has a great influence to choose to use or enjoy the item by the other user of the community. Users share information on the level of trust they explicitly assign to other users. This trust can be used to determine while taking decision based on any recommendation. In case of the absence of direct connection of the recommender user, propagated trust could be useful.
Resumo:
This paper investigates in how to utilize ICT and Web 2.0 technologies and e-democracy software for policy decision-making. It introduces a cutting edge decision-making system that integrates the practice of e-petitions, e-consultation, e-rulemaking, e-voting, and proxy voting. The paper demonstrates how under precondition of direct democracy through the use this system the collective intelligence (CI) of a population would be gathered and used throughout the policy process.
Resumo:
Estimating and predicting degradation processes of engineering assets is crucial for reducing the cost and insuring the productivity of enterprises. Assisted by modern condition monitoring (CM) technologies, most asset degradation processes can be revealed by various degradation indicators extracted from CM data. Maintenance strategies developed using these degradation indicators (i.e. condition-based maintenance) are more cost-effective, because unnecessary maintenance activities are avoided when an asset is still in a decent health state. A practical difficulty in condition-based maintenance (CBM) is that degradation indicators extracted from CM data can only partially reveal asset health states in most situations. Underestimating this uncertainty in relationships between degradation indicators and health states can cause excessive false alarms or failures without pre-alarms. The state space model provides an efficient approach to describe a degradation process using these indicators that can only partially reveal health states. However, existing state space models that describe asset degradation processes largely depend on assumptions such as, discrete time, discrete state, linearity, and Gaussianity. The discrete time assumption requires that failures and inspections only happen at fixed intervals. The discrete state assumption entails discretising continuous degradation indicators, which requires expert knowledge and often introduces additional errors. The linear and Gaussian assumptions are not consistent with nonlinear and irreversible degradation processes in most engineering assets. This research proposes a Gamma-based state space model that does not have discrete time, discrete state, linear and Gaussian assumptions to model partially observable degradation processes. Monte Carlo-based algorithms are developed to estimate model parameters and asset remaining useful lives. In addition, this research also develops a continuous state partially observable semi-Markov decision process (POSMDP) to model a degradation process that follows the Gamma-based state space model and is under various maintenance strategies. Optimal maintenance strategies are obtained by solving the POSMDP. Simulation studies through the MATLAB are performed; case studies using the data from an accelerated life test of a gearbox and a liquefied natural gas industry are also conducted. The results show that the proposed Monte Carlo-based EM algorithm can estimate model parameters accurately. The results also show that the proposed Gamma-based state space model have better fitness result than linear and Gaussian state space models when used to process monotonically increasing degradation data in the accelerated life test of a gear box. Furthermore, both simulation studies and case studies show that the prediction algorithm based on the Gamma-based state space model can identify the mean value and confidence interval of asset remaining useful lives accurately. In addition, the simulation study shows that the proposed maintenance strategy optimisation method based on the POSMDP is more flexible than that assumes a predetermined strategy structure and uses the renewal theory. Moreover, the simulation study also shows that the proposed maintenance optimisation method can obtain more cost-effective strategies than a recently published maintenance strategy optimisation method by optimising the next maintenance activity and the waiting time till the next maintenance activity simultaneously.
Resumo:
Distributed pipeline assets systems are crucial to society. The deterioration of these assets and the optimal allocation of limited budget for their maintenance correspond to crucial challenges for water utility managers. Decision makers should be assisted with optimal solutions to select the best maintenance plan concerning available resources and management strategies. Much research effort has been dedicated to the development of optimal strategies for maintenance of water pipes. Most of the maintenance strategies are intended for scheduling individual water pipe. Consideration of optimal group scheduling replacement jobs for groups of pipes or other linear assets has so far not received much attention in literature. It is a common practice that replacement planners select two or three pipes manually with ambiguous criteria to group into one replacement job. This is obviously not the best solution for job grouping and may not be cost effective, especially when total cost can be up to multiple million dollars. In this paper, an optimal group scheduling scheme with three decision criteria for distributed pipeline assets maintenance decision is proposed. A Maintenance Grouping Optimization (MGO) model with multiple criteria is developed. An immediate challenge of such modeling is to deal with scalability of vast combinatorial solution space. To address this issue, a modified genetic algorithm is developed together with a Judgment Matrix. This Judgment Matrix is corresponding to various combinations of pipe replacement schedules. An industrial case study based on a section of a real water distribution network was conducted to test the new model. The results of the case study show that new schedule generated a significant cost reduction compared with the schedule without grouping pipes.
Resumo:
Adolescents engage in many risk-taking behaviors that have the potential to lead to injury. The school environment has a significant role in shaping adolescent behavior, and this study aimed to provide additional information about the benefits associated with connectedness to school. Early adolescents aged 13 to 15 years (N = 509, 49% boys) were surveyed about school connectedness, engagement in transport and violence risk-taking, and injury experiences. Significant relations were found between school connectedness and reduced engagement in both transport and violence risk-taking, as well as fewer associated injuries. This study has implications for the area of risk-taking and injury prevention, as it suggests the potential for reducing adolescents' injury through school based interventions targeting school connectedness.
Resumo:
Paired speaking tests are now commonly used in both high-stakes testing and classroom assessment contexts. The co-construction of discourse by candidates is regarded as a strength of paired speaking tests, as candidates have the opportunity to display a wider range of interactional competencies, including turn taking, initiating topics and engaging in extended discourse with a partner, rather than an examiner. However, the impact of the interlocutor in such jointly negotiated discourse and the implications for assessing interactional competence are areas of concern. This article reports on the features of interactional competence that were salient to four trained raters of 12 paired speaking tests through the analysis of rater notes, stimulated verbal recalls and rater discussions. Findings enabled the identification of features of the performance noted by raters when awarding scores for interactional competence, and the particular features associated with higher and lower scores. A number of these features were seen by the raters as mutual achievements, which raises the issue of the extent to which it is possible to assess individual contributions to the co-constructed performance. The findings have implications for defining the construct of interactional competence in paired speaking tests and operationalising this in rating scales.
Resumo:
We examine the impact of individual-specific information processing strategies (IPSs) on the inclusion/exclusion of attributes on the parameter estimates and behavioural outputs of models of discrete choice. Current practice assumes that individuals employ a homogenous IPS with regards to how they process attributes of stated choice (SC) experiments. We show how information collected exogenous of the SC experiment on whether respondents either ignored or considered each attribute may be used in the estimation process, and how such information provides outputs that are IPS segment specific. We contend that accounting the inclusion/exclusion of attributes will result in behaviourally richer population parameter estimates.
Resumo:
Due to the limitation of current condition monitoring technologies, the estimates of asset health states may contain some uncertainties. A maintenance strategy ignoring this uncertainty of asset health state can cause additional costs or downtime. The partially observable Markov decision process (POMDP) is a commonly used approach to derive optimal maintenance strategies when asset health inspections are imperfect. However, existing applications of the POMDP to maintenance decision-making largely adopt the discrete time and state assumptions. The discrete-time assumption requires the health state transitions and maintenance activities only happen at discrete epochs, which cannot model the failure time accurately and is not cost-effective. The discrete health state assumption, on the other hand, may not be elaborate enough to improve the effectiveness of maintenance. To address these limitations, this paper proposes a continuous state partially observable semi-Markov decision process (POSMDP). An algorithm that combines the Monte Carlo-based density projection method and the policy iteration is developed to solve the POSMDP. Different types of maintenance activities (i.e., inspections, replacement, and imperfect maintenance) are considered in this paper. The next maintenance action and the corresponding waiting durations are optimized jointly to minimize the long-run expected cost per unit time and availability. The result of simulation studies shows that the proposed maintenance optimization approach is more cost-effective than maintenance strategies derived by another two approximate methods, when regular inspection intervals are adopted. The simulation study also shows that the maintenance cost can be further reduced by developing maintenance strategies with state-dependent maintenance intervals using the POSMDP. In addition, during the simulation studies the proposed POSMDP shows the ability to adopt a cost-effective strategy structure when multiple types of maintenance activities are involved.
Resumo:
This paper derives from research-in-progress intending both Design Research (DR) and Design Science (DS) outputs; the former a management decision tool based in IS-Impact (Gable et al. 2008) kernel theory; the latter being methodological learnings deriving from synthesis of the literature and reflection on the DR ‘case study’ experience. The paper introduces a generic, detailed and pragmatic DS ‘Research Roadmap’ or methodology, deriving at this stage primarily from synthesis and harmonization of relevant concepts identified through systematic archival analysis of related literature. The scope of the Roadmap too has been influenced by the parallel study aim to undertake DR applying and further evolving the Roadmap. The Roadmap is presented in attention to the dearth of detailed guidance available to novice Researchers in Design Science Research (DSR), and though preliminary, is expected to evolve and gradually be substantiated through experience of its application. A key distinction of the Roadmap from other DSR methods is its breadth of coverage of published DSR concepts and activities; its detail and scope. It represents a useful synthesis and integration of otherwise highly disparate DSR-related concepts.
Resumo:
This article reports on the development of the managerial ethical profile (MEP) scale. The MEP scale is a multilevel, self-reporting scale measuring the perceived influence that different dimensions of common ethical frameworks have on managerial decision making. The MEP scale measures on eight subscales: economic egoism, reputational egoism, act utilitarianism, rule utilitarianism, self-virtue of self, virtue of others, act deontology, and rule deontology. Confirmatory factor analysis (CFA) was used to provide evidence of scale validity. Future research needs and the value of this measure for business ethics are discussed.
Resumo:
This paper presents a fault diagnosis method based on adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system (ANFIS) in combination with decision trees. Classification and regression tree (CART) which is one of the decision tree methods is used as a feature selection procedure to select pertinent features from data set. The crisp rules obtained from the decision tree are then converted to fuzzy if-then rules that are employed to identify the structure of ANFIS classifier. The hybrid of back-propagation and least squares algorithm are utilized to tune the parameters of the membership functions. In order to evaluate the proposed algorithm, the data sets obtained from vibration signals and current signals of the induction motors are used. The results indicate that the CART–ANFIS model has potential for fault diagnosis of induction motors.