Iteratively specified tree-based regression : theory and trip generation example

Focuses on a study which introduced an iterative modeling method that combines properties of ordinary least squares (OLS) with hierarchical tree-based regression (HTBR) in transportation engineering. Information on OLS and HTBR; Comparison and contrasts of OLS and HTBR; Conclusions.

Quantum theory beyond the physical : information in context

Measures and theories of information abound, but there are few formalised methods for treating the contextuality that can manifest in different information systems. Quantum theory provides one possible formalism for treating information in context. This paper introduces a quantum-like model of the human mental lexicon, and shows one set of recent experimental data suggesting that concept combinations can indeed behave non-separably. There is some reason to believe that the human mental lexicon displays entanglement.

Architecture for a free subjectivity : Deleuze and Guattari at the Horizon of the Real

Architecture for a Free Subjectivity reformulates the French philosopher Gilles Deleuze's model of subjectivity for architecture, by surveying the prolific effects of architectural encounter, and the spaces that figure in them. For Deleuze and his Lacanian collaborator Félix Guattari, subjectivity does not refer to a person, but to the potential for and event of matter becoming subject, and the myriad ways for this to take place. By extension, this book theorizes architecture as a self-actuating or creative agency for the liberation of purely "impersonal effects." Imagine a chemical reaction, a riot in the banlieues, indeed a walk through a city. Simone Brott declares that the architectural object does not merely take part in the production of subjectivity, but that it constitutes its own.

Persistence of income inequality : does child mortality matter?

Many developing countries are afflicted by persistent inequality in the distribution of income. While a growing body of literature emphasizes differential fertility as a channel through which income inequality persists, this paper investigates differential child mortality – differences in the incidence of child mortality across socioeconomic groups – as a critical link in this regard. Using evidence from cross-country data to evaluate this linkage, we find that differential child mortality serves as a stronger channel than differential fertility in the transmission of income inequality over time. We use random effects and generalized estimating equations techniques to account for temporal correlation within countries. The results are robust to the use of an alternate definition of fertility that reflects parental preference for children instead of realized fertility.

Critical thinking and organisation theory : embedding a process to encourage graduate capabilities

The need for the development of effective business curricula that meets the needs of the marketplace has created an increase in the adoption of core competencies lists identifying appropriate graduate skills. Many organisations and tertiary institutions have individual graduate capabilities lists including skills deemed essential for success. Skills recognised as ‘critical thinking’ are popular inclusions on core competencies and graduate capability lists. While there is literature outlining ‘critical thinking’ frameworks, methods of teaching it and calls for its integration into business curricula, few studies actually identify quantifiable improvements achieved in this area. This project sought to address the development of ‘critical thinking’ skills in a management degree program by embedding a process for critical thinking within a theory unit undertaken by students early in the program. Focus groups and a student survey were used to identify issues of both content and implementation and to develop a student perspective on their needs in thinking critically. A process utilising a framework of critical thinking was integrated through a workbook of weekly case studies for group analysis, discussions and experiential exercises. The experience included formative and summative assessment. Initial results indicate a greater valuation by students of their experience in the organisation theory unit; better marks for mid semester essay assignments and higher evaluations on the university administered survey of students’ satisfaction.

Poisson, Poisson-gamma and zero-inflated regression models of motor vehicle crashes: balancing statistical fit and theory

There has been considerable research conducted over the last 20 years focused on predicting motor vehicle crashes on transportation facilities. The range of statistical models commonly applied includes binomial, Poisson, Poisson-gamma (or negative binomial), zero-inflated Poisson and negative binomial models (ZIP and ZINB), and multinomial probability models. Given the range of possible modeling approaches and the host of assumptions with each modeling approach, making an intelligent choice for modeling motor vehicle crash data is difficult. There is little discussion in the literature comparing different statistical modeling approaches, identifying which statistical models are most appropriate for modeling crash data, and providing a strong justification from basic crash principles. In the recent literature, it has been suggested that the motor vehicle crash process can successfully be modeled by assuming a dual-state data-generating process, which implies that entities (e.g., intersections, road segments, pedestrian crossings, etc.) exist in one of two states—perfectly safe and unsafe. As a result, the ZIP and ZINB are two models that have been applied to account for the preponderance of “excess” zeros frequently observed in crash count data. The objective of this study is to provide defensible guidance on how to appropriate model crash data. We first examine the motor vehicle crash process using theoretical principles and a basic understanding of the crash process. It is shown that the fundamental crash process follows a Bernoulli trial with unequal probability of independent events, also known as Poisson trials. We examine the evolution of statistical models as they apply to the motor vehicle crash process, and indicate how well they statistically approximate the crash process. We also present the theory behind dual-state process count models, and note why they have become popular for modeling crash data. A simulation experiment is then conducted to demonstrate how crash data give rise to “excess” zeros frequently observed in crash data. It is shown that the Poisson and other mixed probabilistic structures are approximations assumed for modeling the motor vehicle crash process. Furthermore, it is demonstrated that under certain (fairly common) circumstances excess zeros are observed—and that these circumstances arise from low exposure and/or inappropriate selection of time/space scales and not an underlying dual state process. In conclusion, carefully selecting the time/space scales for analysis, including an improved set of explanatory variables and/or unobserved heterogeneity effects in count regression models, or applying small-area statistical methods (observations with low exposure) represent the most defensible modeling approaches for datasets with a preponderance of zeros

Bayesian multinomial logit: Theory and route choice example

Statisticians along with other scientists have made significant computational advances that enable the estimation of formerly complex statistical models. The Bayesian inference framework combined with Markov chain Monte Carlo estimation methods such as the Gibbs sampler enable the estimation of discrete choice models such as the multinomial logit (MNL) model. MNL models are frequently applied in transportation research to model choice outcomes such as mode, destination, or route choices or to model categorical outcomes such as crash outcomes. Recent developments allow for the modification of the potentially limiting assumptions of MNL such as the independence from irrelevant alternatives (IIA) property. However, relatively little transportation-related research has focused on Bayesian MNL models, the tractability of which is of great value to researchers and practitioners alike. This paper addresses MNL model specification issues in the Bayesian framework, such as the value of including prior information on parameters, allowing for nonlinear covariate effects, and extensions to random parameter models, so changing the usual limiting IIA assumption. This paper also provides an example that demonstrates, using route-choice data, the considerable potential of the Bayesian MNL approach with many transportation applications. This paper then concludes with a discussion of the pros and cons of this Bayesian approach and identifies when its application is worthwhile

Political theory and theoretical physics

This paper argues, somewhat along a Simmelian line, that political theory may produce practical and universal theories like those developed in theoretical physics. The reasoning behind this paper is to show that the theory of ‘basic democracy’ may be true by way of comparing it to Einstein’s Special Relativity – specifically concerning the parameters of symmetry, unification, simplicity, and utility. These parameters are what make a theory in physics as meeting them not only fits with current knowledge, but also produces paths towards testing (application). As the theory of ‘basic democracy’ may meet these same parameters, it could settle the debate concerning the definition of democracy. This will be argued firstly by discussing what the theory of ‘basic democracy’ is and why it differs from previous work; secondly by explaining the parameters chosen (as in why these and not others confirm or scuttle theories); and thirdly by comparing how Special Relativity and the theory of ‘basic democracy’ may match the parameters.

Rayleigh theory of ultrasound scattering applied to liquid-filled contrast nanoparticles

We present a novel modified theory based upon Rayleigh scattering of ultrasound from composite nanoparticles with a liquid core and solid shell. We derive closed form solutions to the scattering cross-section and have applied this model to an ultrasound contrast agent consisting of a liquid-filled core (perfluorooctyl bromide, PFOB) encapsulated by a polymer shell (poly-caprolactone, PCL). Sensitivity analysis was performed to predict the dependence of the scattering cross-section upon material and dimensional parameters. A rapid increase in the scattering cross-section was achieved by increasing the compressibility of the core, validating the incorporation of high compressibility PFOB; the compressibility of the shell had little impact on the overall scattering cross-section although a more compressible shell is desirable. Changes in the density of the shell and the core result in predicted local minima in the scattering cross-section, approximately corresponding to the PFOB-PCL contrast agent considered; hence, incorporation of a lower shell density could potentially significantly improve the scattering cross-section. A 50% reduction in shell thickness relative to external radius increased the predicted scattering cross-section by 50%. Although it has often been considered that the shell has a negative effect on the echogeneity due to its low compressibility, we have shown that it can potentially play an important role in the echogeneity of the contrast agent. The challenge for the future is to identify suitable shell and core materials that meet the predicted characteristics in order to achieve optimal echogenity.

Vitamin D intake needed to maintain target serum 25-Hydroxyvitamin D concentrations in participants with low sun exposure and dark skin pigmentation is substantially higher than current recommendations

Cutaneous cholecalciferol synthesis has not been considered in making recommendations for vitamin D intake. Our objective was to model the effects of sun exposure, vitamin D intake, and skin reflectance (pigmentation) on serum 25-hydroxyvitamin D (25[OH]D) in young adults with a wide range of skin reflectance and sun exposure. Four cohorts of participants (n = 72 total) were studied for 7-8 wk in the fall, winter, spring, and summer in Davis, CA [38.5° N, 121.7° W, Elev. 49 ft (15 m)]. Skin reflectance was measured using a spectrophotometer, vitamin D intake using food records, and sun exposure using polysulfone dosimeter badges. A multiple regression model (R^sup 2^ = 0.55; P < 0.0001) was developed and used to predict the serum 25(OH)D concentration for participants with low [median for African ancestry (AA)] and high [median for European ancestry (EA)] skin reflectance and with low [20th percentile, ~20 min/d, ~18% body surface area (BSA) exposed] and high (80th percentile, ~90 min/d, ~35% BSA exposed) sun exposure, assuming an intake of 200 IU/d (5 ug/d). Predicted serum 25(OH)D concentrations for AA individuals with low and high sun exposure in the winter were 24 and 42 nmol/L and in the summer were 40 and 60 nmol/L. Corresponding values for EA individuals were 35 and 60 nmol/L in the winter and in the summer were 58 and 85 nmol/L. To achieve 25(OH)D ≥75 nmol/L, we estimate that EA individuals with high sun exposure need 1300 IU/d vitamin D intake in the winter and AA individuals with low sun exposure need 2100-3100 IU/d year-round.

The application of profluorescent nitroxides to detect reactive oxygen species derived from combustion-generated particulate matter: Cigarette smoke – a case study

Reactive oxygen species (ROS) and related free radicals are considered to be key factors underpinning the various adverse health effects associated with exposure to ambient particulate matter. Therefore, measurement of ROS is a crucial factor for assessing the potential toxicity of particles. In this work, a novel profluorescent nitroxide, BPEAnit, was investigated as a probe for detecting particle-derived ROS. BPEAnit has a very low fluorescence emission due to inherent quenching by the nitroxide group, but upon radical trapping or redox activity, a strong fluorescence is observed. BPEAnit was tested for detection of ROS present in mainstream and sidestream cigarette smoke. In the case of mainstream cigarette smoke, there was a linear increase in fluorescence intensity with an increasing number of cigarette puffs, equivalent to an average of 101 nmol ROS per cigarette based on the number of moles of the probe reacted. Sidestream cigarette smoke sampled from an environmental chamber exposed BPEAnit to much lower concentrations of particles, but still resulted in a clearly detectible increase in fluorescence intensity with sampling time. It was calculated that the amount of ROS was equivalent to 50 ± 2 nmol per mg of particulate matter; however, this value decreased with ageing of the particles in the chamber. Overall, BPEAnit was shown to provide a sensitive response related to the oxidative capacity of the particulate matter. These findings present a good basis for employing the new BPEAnit probe for the investigation of particle-related ROS generated from cigarette smoke as well as from other combustion sources.

Exposure to particle number, surface area and PM concentrations in pizzerias

The aim of this work was to quantify exposure to particles emitted by wood-fired ovens in pizzerias. Overall, 15 microenvironments were chosen and analyzed in a 14-month experimental campaign. Particle number concentration and distribution were measured simultaneously using a Condensation Particle Counter (CPC), a Scanning Mobility Particle Sizer (SMPS), an Aerodynamic Particle Sizer (APS). The surface area and mass distributions and concentrations, as well as the estimation of lung deposition surface area and PM1 were evaluated using the SMPS-APS system with dosimetric models, by taking into account the presence of aggregates on the basis of the Idealized Aggregate (IA) theory. The fraction of inhaled particles deposited in the respiratory system and different fractions of particulate matter were also measured by means of a Nanoparticle Surface Area Monitor (NSAM) and a photometer (DustTrak DRX), respectively. In this way, supplementary data were obtained during the monitoring of trends inside the pizzerias. We found that surface area and PM1 particle concentrations in pizzerias can be very high, especially when compared to other critical microenvironments, such as the transport hubs. During pizza cooking under normal ventilation conditions, concentrations were found up to 74, 70 and 23 times higher than background levels for number, surface area and PM1, respectively. A key parameter is the oven shape factor, defined as the ratio between the size of the face opening in respect

Who's afraid of the dark? Transpower New Zealand Ltd

On 12 June 2006, the lights went out in New Zealand’s largest city and major commercial centre, Auckland. Business was disrupted and many thousands of people inconvenienced. The unscheduled power cut was the latest in a series of electric power problems in New Zealand over the past decade. Attention turned to state-owned enterprise [SOE] Transpower, which was in charge of maintaining and developing New Zealand’s national electricity grid. The problem of 12 June was traced to two shackles in poor condition, small but essential parts of the electricity grid infrastructure. Closer examination of New Zealand’s electricity sector indicated these shackles were merely the tip of a power supply iceberg. Transpower’s Chief Executive, Ralph Craven, was now answerable to the Prime Minister for the issues creating the problems, and a workable solution to fix them. Transpower Chief Executive Ralph Craven needed to produce answers that went well beyond the problem of the two faulty shackles. The power crisis had brought to the fore wider issues of roles, responsibilities, and expectations in relation to the supply of electric power in New Zealand. Transpower was contending with these issues on a daily basis; however, the incident on 12 June publicly highlighted the urgent need for solutions that served the stakeholders in this critical industry.

Kidlit from a graduate student's perspective : a problem in theory?

Plenary Session: "New Voices in Children's Literature"

A three year outcome evaluation of a theory based drink driving education program

This study reports on the impact of a "drink driving education program" taught to grade ten high school students. The program which involves twelve lessons uses strategies based on the Ajzen and Madden theory of planned behavior. Students were trained to use alternatives to drink driving and passenger behaviors. One thousand seven hundred and seventy-four students who had been taught the program in randomly assigned control and intervention schools were followed up three years later. There had been a major reduction in drink driving behaviors in both intervention and control students. In addition to this cohort change there was a trend toward reduced drink driving in the intervention group and a significant reduction in passenger behavior in this group. Readiness to use alternatives suggested that the major impact of the program was on students who were experimenting with the behavior at the time the program was taught. The program seems to have optimized concurrent social attitude and behavior change.