Risk management in the Lusoponte concession : a case study of the two bridges in Lisbon, Portugal

The case study of Lusoponte illustrates the concession awarded by the Portuguese Government to finance, design, build and operate two bridges over the Tagus in Lisbon, Portugal. It includes an overview of the project's background and an analysis of the main risk categories stating both the actual risks encountered and the mitigation measures adopted. Throughout the project a great attention was given to whole life cycle costs, and gains in efficiency and cost control. Among the lessons that can be learned from both the public and private sector is that a complete risk management analysis must include not only the technical factors but also a realistic assessment of environmental and social risks. These were the risks that were somewhat overseen and that caused the main problems to the project's development.

Do derivatives have a role in the risk-shifting behaviour of fund managers?

In this paper we examine the extent to which derivatives are used to affect the risk-shifting behaviour of Australian equity fund managers. We find, after periods of good and poor performance, the risk-shifting behaviour of fund managers is different between derivative users and non-users. Our results support the gaming and active competition hypotheses but there is little support for the cash flow hypothesis. The study also allows for a complex reporting environment by analysing data across three alternate time periods: the calendar year, financial year and quarterly frames. Given that our results are not consistent across time periods for users and non-users of derivatives, some caution in interpretation is required.

Respecting contractual intentions : balancing consumer expectations with the sanctity of contract in the context of standard form insurance contracts

It is the purpose of this article to examine the means curently available to judges to achieve a workable balance between providing appropriate consumer protection to signatories of standard form contractors while still retaining adequate respect for the sanctity of contract, and, based on this analysis, to determine whether a significantly greater scope of contract (re)construction is likely to become the norm in most common law jurisdictions in the coming decades.

Disclosure under the prescribed insurance contracts regime : Section 35 of the Insurance Contracts Act 1984 and consumer protection revisited

Section 35 of the Insurance Contracts Act 1984 requires insurers offering insurance policies in six prescribed areas "to clearly inform" prospective insureds of any departure their policies may constitute from the standard covers established by the Act and its accompanying Regulations. This prescribed insurance contracts regime was designed to remedy comprehension problems generated by the length and complexity of insurance documents and to alleviate misunderstanding over the terms and conditions of individual policies. This article examines the rationale underpinning s 35 and the prescribed insurance contracts regime and looks at the operation of the legislation with particular reference to home contents insurance in Australia. It is argued that the means whereby disclosure of derogation from standard cover may be effected largely negates the thrust of the prescribed insurance contract reform. Recommendations to address these operational deficiencies are made.

Disclosure and concealment in consumer insurance contracts

This book provides an in-depth examination of the theoretical,legal, social and economic foundations to disclosure and concealment of information in relation to the formation of consumer insurance contracts. A comparative treatment of this issue is undertaken with particular attention given to the judicial and legislative approaches adopted in the United Kingdom, the United States of America, Australia and New Zealand.

Legal aspects of Web 2.0 activities : management of legal risk associated with use of YouTube, MySpace and Second Life

This Report, prepared for Smart Service Queensland (“SSQ”), addresses legal issues, areas of risk and other factors associated with activities conducted on three popular online platforms—YouTube, MySpace and Second Life (which are referred to throughout this Report as the “Platforms”). The Platforms exemplify online participatory spaces and behaviours, including blogging and networking, multimedia sharing, and immersive virtual environments.

Channel blurring and consumer expectations : evidence in Chile

An important trend in Chilean retailing industry is the increase in channel blurring. This investigation attempts to identify the relevant store attributes for different retail formats (grocery, department store, drug store, and home improvement). Do consumer store attribute saliency vary for different retail formats? Interviews identified twelve salient store attributes for the different retail formats. Survey results showed differences in store attribute saliencies for consumers when shopping at different formats. Seven of the twelve variables showed significant differences across formats. However, two attributes were relatively important for all four retail formats: product quality and responsiveness of employees.

Stroke education : promising effects on the health beliefs of those at risk

Background: The effect of patient education on reducing stroke has had mixed effects, raising questions about how to achieve optimal benefit. Because past evaluations have typically lacked an appropriate theoretical base, the design of past research may have missed important effects. --------- Method: This study used a social cognitive framework to identify variables that might change in response to education. A mixed design was used to evaluate two approaches to an intervention, both of which included education. Fifty seniors completed a measure of stroke knowledge and beliefs twice: before and after an intervention that was either standard (educational brochure plus activities that were not about stroke) or enhanced (educational brochure plus activities designed to enhance beliefs about stroke). Outcome measures were health beliefs, intention to exercise to reduce stroke, and stroke knowledge. --------- Results: Selected beliefs changed significantly over time but not differentially across conditions. Beliefs that changed were (a) perceived susceptibility to stroke and (b) perceived benefit of exercise to reduce risk. Benefit beliefs, in particular, were strongly and positively associated with intention to exercise. -------- Conclusion: Findings suggest that basic approaches to patient education may influence health beliefs. More effective stroke prevention programs may result from continued consideration of the role of health beliefs in such programs.

The consequences of substance use among gay and bisexual men : a consensual qualitative research analysis

- Background Substance use is common among gay/bisexual men and is associated with significant health risks (e.g. HIV transmission). The consequences of substance use, across the range of substances commonly used, have received little attention. The purpose of this study is to map participant’s beliefs about the effects of substance use to inform prevention, health promotion and clinical interventions. - Methods Participants were interviewed about experiences regarding their substance use and recruited through medical and sexual health clinics. Data were collected though a consumer panel and individual interviews. Responses regarding perceived consequences of substance use were coded using Consensual Qualitative Research (CQR) methodology. - Results Most participants reported lifetime use of alcohol, cannabis, stimulants and amyl nitrite, and recent alcohol and cannabis use. A wide range of themes were identified regarding participant’s thoughts, emotions and behaviours (including sexual behaviours) secondary to substance use, including: cognitive functioning, mood, social interaction, physical effects, sexual activity, sexual risk-taking, perception of sexual experience, arousal, sensation, relaxation, disinhibition, energy/activity level and numbing. Analyses indicated several consequences were consistent across substance types (e.g. cognitive impairment, enhanced mood), whereas others were highly specific to a given substance (e.g. heightened arousal post amyl nitrite use). - Conclusions Prevention and interventions need to consider the variety of effects of substance use in tailoring effective education programs to reduce harms. A diversity of consequences appear to have direct and indirect impacts on decision-making, sexual activity and risk-taking. Findings lend support for the role of specific beliefs (e.g. expectancies) related to substance use on risk-related cognitions, emotions and behaviours.

Consumer-based brand equity for Australia as a long haul tourism destination in an emerging market

Purpose: Although the branding literature emerged during the 1940s, research relating to tourism destination branding has only gained momentum since the late 1990s. There remains a lack of theory in particular that addresses the measurement of the effectiveness of destination branding over time. The purpose of the research was to test the effectiveness of a model of consumer-based brand equity (CBBE) for a country destination.---------- Design/methodology: A model of consumer-based brand equity was adapted from the marketing literature and applied to a nation context. The model was tested by using structural equation modelling with data from a large Chilean sample (n=845), comprising a mix of previous visitors and non-visitors. The model fits the data well. Findings: This paper reports the results of an investigation into brand equity for Australia as a long haul destination in an emerging market. The research took place just before the launch of the nation’s fourth new brand campaign in six years. The results indicate Australia is a well known but not compelling destination brand for tourists in Chile, which reflects the lower priority the South American market has been given by the national tourism office (NTO).---------- Practical implications: It is suggested that CBBE measures could be analysed at various points in time to track any strengthening or weakening of market perceptions in relation to brand objectives. A standard CBBE instrument could provide long-term effectiveness performance measures regardless of changes in destination marketing organisation (DMO) staff, advertising agency, other stakeholders, and budget.---------- Originality/value: This study contributes to the nation-branding literature by being one of the first to test the efficacy of a model of consumer-based brand equity for a tourism destination brand.

Forecasting time-varying value-at-risk

In this thesis we are interested in financial risk and the instrument we want to use is Value-at-Risk (VaR). VaR is the maximum loss over a given period of time at a given confidence level. Many definitions of VaR exist and some will be introduced throughout this thesis. There two main ways to measure risk and VaR: through volatility and through percentiles. Large volatility in financial returns implies greater probability of large losses, but also larger probability of large profits. Percentiles describe tail behaviour. The estimation of VaR is a complex task. It is important to know the main characteristics of financial data to choose the best model. The existing literature is very wide, maybe controversial, but helpful in drawing a picture of the problem. It is commonly recognised that financial data are characterised by heavy tails, time-varying volatility, asymmetric response to bad and good news, and skewness. Ignoring any of these features can lead to underestimating VaR with a possible ultimate consequence being the default of the protagonist (firm, bank or investor). In recent years, skewness has attracted special attention. An open problem is the detection and modelling of time-varying skewness. Is skewness constant or there is some significant variability which in turn can affect the estimation of VaR? This thesis aims to answer this question and to open the way to a new approach to model simultaneously time-varying volatility (conditional variance) and skewness. The new tools are modifications of the Generalised Lambda Distributions (GLDs). They are four-parameter distributions, which allow the first four moments to be modelled nearly independently: in particular we are interested in what we will call para-moments, i.e., mean, variance, skewness and kurtosis. The GLDs will be used in two different ways. Firstly, semi-parametrically, we consider a moving window to estimate the parameters and calculate the percentiles of the GLDs. Secondly, parametrically, we attempt to extend the GLDs to include time-varying dependence in the parameters. We used the local linear regression to estimate semi-parametrically conditional mean and conditional variance. The method is not efficient enough to capture all the dependence structure in the three indices —ASX 200, S&P 500 and FT 30—, however it provides an idea of the DGP underlying the process and helps choosing a good technique to model the data. We find that GLDs suggest that moments up to the fourth order do not always exist, there existence appears to vary over time. This is a very important finding, considering that past papers (see for example Bali et al., 2008; Hashmi and Tay, 2007; Lanne and Pentti, 2007) modelled time-varying skewness, implicitly assuming the existence of the third moment. However, the GLDs suggest that mean, variance, skewness and in general the conditional distribution vary over time, as already suggested by the existing literature. The GLDs give good results in estimating VaR on three real indices, ASX 200, S&P 500 and FT 30, with results very similar to the results provided by historical simulation.

Can book-to-market and size be risk factors that predict economic growth in Asia's emerging economies?

We investigate whether the two 2 zero cost portfolios, SMB and HML, have the ability to predict economic growth for markets investigated in this paper. Our findings show that there are only a limited number of cases when the coefficients are positive and significance is achieved in an even more limited number of cases. Our results are in stark contrast to Liew and Vassalou (2000) who find coefficients to be generally positive and of a similar magnitude. We go a step further and also employ the methodology of Lakonishok, Shleifer and Vishny (1994) and once again fail to support the risk-based hypothesis of Liew and Vassalou (2000). In sum, we argue that search for a robust economic explanation for firm size and book-to-market equity effects needs sustained effort as these two zero cost portfolios do not represent economically relevant risk.

Education reform for at-risk youth : a social capital approach

Using the Education Queensland Reform Agenda to illustrate examples and approaches to education reform, this article discusses education reform for at-risk youth. It argues that the characteristics of modernity, the rise of Mode 2 Society, and the power asymmetries associated with the emergence of the politico-economic will contain the reform ambitions of the Education Queensland and other education reform agendas. It is proposed that the State adopt a transgressive and complimentary set of reform strategies including the adoption of distributed governance, making available meaningful school performance data, encouraging experimentation and facilitating broad stakeholder, community and neighbourhood engagement in school planning and operations. The article argues that measures such as these will assist to mobilize trust, minimise social fragmentation, generate and regenerate community resources, build cohesion, foster the socio-cultural-self-identities of 'at-risk' youth and will assist youth to achieve full participation in a robust and vibrant democracy.

Joint consumer submission to the review of the code of banking practice

This submission has been prepared on behalf of Australian consumer advocates by Nicola Howell, Faculty of Law, Queensland University of Technology (‘the researcher’), under a consultancy arrangement with the Australian Securities and Investments Commission (ASIC). The researcher has been engaged by ASIC to consult with consumer advocates across Australia in order to prepare a detailed consumer submission to the Review of the Code of Banking Practice and the Review Issues Paper.

Foreign wine consumption in Australia : the influence of consumer perceptions to foreign cultures on wine choice

Research has shown that while some people favor foreign- sourced products, others prefer to purchase goods made in their own country. From the perspective of the Australian wine market, consumption of wine has been consistently increasing in recent years. While sales of Australian made wine is booming, sales of imported sources is also increasing in terms of dollar value. This paper examines the effect of consumer ethnocentrism and animosity on willingness to buy foreign wine products, in an effort to better understand the factors involved in the consumer decision making process when purchasing wine products.