Incorporating human-factors in car-following models : a review of recent developments and research needs

Over the past decades there has been a considerable development in the modeling of car-following (CF) behavior as a result of research undertaken by both traffic engineers and traffic psychologists. While traffic engineers seek to understand the behavior of a traffic stream, traffic psychologists seek to describe the human abilities and errors involved in the driving process. This paper provides a comprehensive review of these two research streams. It is necessary to consider human-factors in {CF} modeling for a more realistic representation of {CF} behavior in complex driving situations (for example, in traffic breakdowns, crash-prone situations, and adverse weather conditions) to improve traffic safety and to better understand widely-reported puzzling traffic flow phenomena, such as capacity drop, stop-and-go oscillations, and traffic hysteresis. While there are some excellent reviews of {CF} models available in the literature, none of these specifically focuses on the human factors in these models. This paper addresses this gap by reviewing the available literature with a specific focus on the latest advances in car-following models from both the engineering and human behavior points of view. In so doing, it analyses the benefits and limitations of various models and highlights future research needs in the area.

Profiling high-range speeding offenders : investigating criminal history, personal characteristics, traffic offences, and crash history

This paper reports profiling information for speeding offenders and is part of a larger project that assessed the deterrent effects of increased speeding penalties in Queensland, Australia, using a total of 84,456 speeding offences. The speeding offenders were classified into three groups based on the extent and severity of an index offence: once-only low-rang offenders; repeat high-range offenders; and other offenders. The three groups were then compared in terms of personal characteristics, traffic offences, crash history and criminal history. Results revealed a number of significant differences between repeat high-range offenders and those in the other two offender groups. Repeat high-range speeding offenders were more likely to be male, younger, hold a provisional and a motorcycle licence, to have committed a range of previous traffic offences, to have a significantly greater likelihood of crash involvement, and to have been involved in multiple-vehicle crashes than drivers in the other two offender types. Additionally, when a subset of offenders’ criminal histories were examined, results revealed that repeat high-range speeding offenders were also more likely to have committed a previous criminal offence compared to once only low-range and other offenders and that 55.2% of the repeat high-range offenders had a criminal history. They were also significantly more likely to have committed drug offences and offences against order than the once only low-range speeding offenders, and significantly more likely to have committed regulation offences than those in the other offenders group. Overall, the results indicate that speeding offenders are not an homogeneous group and that, therefore, more tailored and innovative sanctions should be considered and evaluated for high-range recidivist speeders because they are a high-risk road user group.

Fuzzy logic to evaluate driving maneuvers: An integrated approach to improve training

Driver training is one of the interventions aimed at mitigating the number of crashes that involve novice drivers. Our failure to understand what is really important for learners, in terms of risky driving, is one of the many drawbacks restraining us to build better training programs. Currently, there is a need to develop and evaluate Advanced Driving Assistance Systems that could comprehensively assess driving competencies. The aim of this paper is to present a novel Intelligent Driver Training System (IDTS) that analyses crash risks for a given driving situation, providing avenues for improvement and personalisation of driver training programs. The analysis takes into account numerous variables acquired synchronously from the Driver, the Vehicle and the Environment (DVE). The system then segments out the manoeuvres within a drive. This paper further presents the usage of fuzzy set theory to develop the safety inference rules for each manoeuvre executed during the drive. This paper presents a framework and its associated prototype that can be used to comprehensively view and assess complex driving manoeuvres and then provide a comprehensive analysis of the drive used to give feedback to novice drivers.

In silico analyses reveal common cellular pathways affected by loss of heterozygosity (LOH) events in the lymphomagenesis of Non-Hodgkin’s lymphoma (NHL)

Background The analysis of cellular networks and pathways involved in oncogenesis has increased our knowledge about the pathogenic mechanisms that underlie tumour biology and has unmasked new molecular targets that may lead to the design of better anti-cancer therapies. Recently, using a high resolution loss of heterozygosity (LOH) analysis, we identified a number of potential tumour suppressor genes (TSGs) within common LOH regions across cases suffering from two of the most common forms of Non-Hodgkin’s lymphoma (NHL), Follicular Lymphoma (FL) and Diffuse Large B-cell Lymphoma (DLBCL). From these studies LOH of the protein tyrosine phosphatase receptor type J (PTPRJ) gene was identified as a common event in the lymphomagenesis of these B-cell lymphomas. The present study aimed to determine the cellular pathways affected by the inactivation of these TSGs including PTPRJ in FL and DLBCL tumourigenesis. Results Pathway analytical approaches identified that candidate TSGs located within common LOH regions participate within cellular pathways, which may play a crucial role in FL and DLBCL lymphomagenesis (i.e., metabolic pathways). These analyses also identified genes within the interactome of PTPRJ (i.e. PTPN11 and B2M) that when inactivated in NHL may play an important role in tumourigenesis. We also detected genes that are differentially expressed in cases with and without LOH of PTPRJ, such as NFATC3 (nuclear factor of activated T-cells, cytoplasmic, calcineurin-dependent 3). Moreover, upregulation of the VEGF, MAPK and ERBB signalling pathways was also observed in NHL cases with LOH of PTPRJ, indicating that LOH-driving events causing inactivation of PTPRJ, apart from possibly inducing a constitutive activation of these pathways by reduction or abrogation of its dephosphorylation activity, may also induce upregulation of these pathways when inactivated. This finding implicates these pathways in the lymphomagenesis and progression of FL and DLBCL. Conclusions The evidence obtained in this research supports findings suggesting that FL and DLBCL share common pathogenic mechanisms. Also, it indicates that PTPRJ can play a crucial role in the pathogenesis of these B-cell tumours and suggests that activation of PTPRJ might be an interesting novel chemotherapeutic target for the treatment of these B-cell tumours.

Transcriptome analyses of amoebic gill disease-affected atlantic salmon (Salmo salar) tissues reveal localized host gene suppression

The transcriptome response of Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar) displaying advanced stages of amoebic gill disease (AGD) was investigated. Naïve smolt were challenged with AGD for 19 days, at which time all fish were euthanized and their severity of infection quantified through histopathological scoring. Gene expression profiles were compared between heavily infected and naïve individuals using a 17 K Atlantic salmon cDNA microarray with real-time quantitative RT-PCR (qPCR) verification. Expression profiles were examined in the gill, anterior kidney, and liver. Twenty-seven transcripts were significantly differentially expressed within the gill; 20 of these transcripts were down-regulated in the AGD-affected individuals compared with naïve individuals. In contrast, only nine transcripts were significantly differentially expressed within the anterior kidney and five within the liver. Again the majority of these transcripts were down-regulated within the diseased individuals. A down-regulation of transcripts involved in apoptosis (procathepsin L, cathepsin H precursor, and cystatin B) was observed in AGD-affected Atlantic salmon. Four transcripts encoding genes with antioxidant properties also were down-regulated in AGD-affected gill tissue according to qPCR analysis. The most up-regulated transcript within the gill was an unknown expressed sequence tag (EST) whose expression was 218-fold (± SE 66) higher within the AGD affected gill tissue. Our results suggest that Atlantic salmon experiencing advanced stages of AGD demonstrate general down-regulation of gene expression, which is most pronounced within the gill. We propose that this general gene suppression is parasite-mediated, thus allowing the parasite to withstand or ameliorate the host response. © 2008 Springer Science+Business Media, LLC.

Male and female, cyclist and driver perceptions of crash risk in critical road situations

Male and Female, Cyclist and Driver Perceptions of Crash Risk in Critical Road Situations. Governments are promoting cycling but many Australians, particularly women, do not ride because they perceive it to be too risky. This research compared the risks perceived by female and male, cyclists and drivers in specific on-road situations, accounting for factors such as travel patterns and experience, perceived skill, and risk taking behaviours. Compared to their male counterparts, female cyclists and drivers gave similarly elevated perceptions of risk. These differences are not completely accounted for by cycling patterns or perceptions of skill. Thus, these gender differences are not specific to cycling, but may reflect wider differences in risk perception.

Are we there yet? Australian road safety targets and road traffic crash fatalities

Background Road safety targets are widely used and provide a basis for evaluating progress in road safety outcomes against a quantified goal. In Australia, a reduction in fatalities from road traffic crashes (RTCs) is a public policy objective: a national target of no more than 5.6 fatalities per 100,000 population by 2010 was set in 2001. The purpose of this paper is to examine the progress Australia and its states and territories have made in reducing RTC fatalities, and to estimate when the 2010 target may be reached by the jurisdictions. Methods Following a descriptive analysis, univariate time-series models estimate past trends in fatality rates over recent decades. Data for differing time periods are analysed and different trend specifications estimated. Preferred models were selected on the basis of statistical criteria and the period covered by the data. The results of preferred regressions are used to determine out-of-sample forecasts of when the national target may be attained by the jurisdictions. Though there are limitations with the time series approach used, inadequate data precluded the estimation of a full causal/structural model. Results Statistically significant reductions in fatality rates since 1971 were found for all jurisdictions with the national rate decreasing on average, 3% per year since 1992. However the gains have varied across time and space, with percent changes in fatality rates ranging from an 8% increase in New South Wales 1972-1981 to a 46% decrease in Queensland 1982-1991. Based on an estimate of past trends, it is possible that the target set for 2010 may not be reached nationally, until 2016. Unsurprisingly, the analysis indicated a range of outcomes for the respective state/territory jurisdictions though these results should be interpreted with caution due to different assumptions and length of data. Conclusions Results indicate that while Australia has been successful over recent decades in reducing RTC mortality, an important gap between aspirations and achievements remains. Moreover, unless there are fairly radical ("trend-breaking") changes in the factors that affect the incidence of RTC fatalities, deaths from RTCs are likely to remain above the national target in some areas of Australia, for years to come.

Are road traffic crash fatality rates converging among OECD countries?

This article examines the trends of road traffic crash (RTC) fatality rates in OECD countries over the past four decades. Based on recent developments in the economic growth literature we propose and test the hypothesis that RTC fatality rates initially increase with economic development, peak, and then gradually decrease. The theory predicts that, as a result, the RTC fatality rates of different countries will tend to converge over time. Our results for the period 1961–2007 reveal no evidence of the convergence of RTC fatality rates across the OECD as a whole for that time period. Nevertheless, there is evidence of convergence among sub-groups of countries. This evidence may assist policymakers as an additional way of benchmarking their country's performance against that of its peers and to identify the next-closest peer in country sub-groups with superior road safety performance.

Male and female cyclist and driver perceptions of crash risk

Many drivers and non-cyclists perceive cycling as an extremely risky activity with women in particular being concerned about the risk of injury. The low rates of cycling participation by women pose a threat to the achievement of government targets for cycling participation and restrict the potential transport, health and environmental benefits that increased levels of cycling could provide. This study seeks to extend earlier research in gender and cycling by comparing the risks perceived by female and male cyclists and drivers in specific on-road situations while accounting for other potentially gender-related factors such as travel patterns and experience, perceived skill, and risk taking behaviors. In an online survey, 444 regular cyclists and 151 (non-cyclist) car drivers rated the level of risk in six situations: Failing to yield; Going through a red light; Not signaling when turning; Swerving; Tailgating; and Not checking traffic. The study found that the higher levels of risk perceived by women are not completely accounted for by differences in cycling patterns or perceptions of skill. Compared to their male counterparts, female cyclists and car drivers had similarly elevated perceptions of risk suggesting that these gender differences are not specific to cycling, but reflect wider differences in risk perception. Not all of the gender differences were consistent across cyclists and drivers. Higher levels of perceived skill were evident for male cyclists but not for male car drivers. Further research is needed to explore the robustness and interpretation of this finding.

Accounting for management costs in sensitivity analyses of matrix population models

Traditional sensitivity and elasticity analyses of matrix population models have been used to inform management decisions, but they ignore the economic costs of manipulating vital rates. For example, the growth rate of a population is often most sensitive to changes in adult survival rate, but this does not mean that increasing that rate is the best option for managing the population because it may be much more expensive than other options. To explore how managers should optimize their manipulation of vital rates, we incorporated the cost of changing those rates into matrix population models. We derived analytic expressions for locations in parameter space where managers should shift between management of fecundity and survival, for the balance between fecundity and survival management at those boundaries, and for the allocation of management resources to sustain that optimal balance. For simple matrices, the optimal budget allocation can often be expressed as simple functions of vital rates and the relative costs of changing them. We applied our method to management of the Helmeted Honeyeater (Lichenostomus melanops cassidix; an endangered Australian bird) and the koala (Phascolarctos cinereus) as examples. Our method showed that cost-efficient management of the Helmeted Honeyeater should focus on increasing fecundity via nest protection, whereas optimal koala management should focus on manipulating both fecundity and survival simultaneously. These findings are contrary to the cost-negligent recommendations of elasticity analysis, which would suggest focusing on managing survival in both cases. A further investigation of Helmeted Honeyeater management options, based on an individual-based model incorporating density dependence, spatial structure, and environmental stochasticity, confirmed that fecundity management was the most cost-effective strategy. Our results demonstrate that decisions that ignore economic factors will reduce management efficiency. ©2006 Society for Conservation Biology.

Biomechanical analyses of the performance of Paralympians: From foundation to elite level

Biomechanical analysis of sport performance provides an objective method of determining performance of a particular sporting technique. In particular, it aims to add to the understanding of the mechanisms influencing performance, characterization of athletes, and provide insights into injury predisposition. Whilst the performance in sport of able-bodied athletes is well recognised in the literature, less information and understanding is known on the complexity, constraints and demands placed on the body of an individual with a disability. This paper provides a dialogue that outlines scientific issues of performance analysis of multi-level athletes with a disability, including Paralympians. Four integrated themes are explored the first of which focuses on how biomechanics can contribute to the understanding of sport performance in athletes with a disability and how it may be used as an evidence-based tool. This latter point questions the potential for a possible cultural shift led by emergence of user-friendly instruments. The second theme briefly discusses the role of reliability of sport performance and addresses the debate of two-dimensional and three-dimensional analysis. The third theme address key biomechanical parameters and provides guidance to clinicians, and coaches on the approaches adopted using biomechanical/sport performance analysis for an athlete with a disability starting out, to the emerging and elite Paralympian. For completeness of this discourse, the final theme is based on the controversial issues on the role of assisted devices and the inclusion of Paralympians into able-bodied sport is also presented. All combined, this dialogue highlights the intricate relationship between biomechanics and training of individuals with a disability. Furthermore, it illustrates the complexity of modern training of athletes which can only lead to a better appreciation of the performances to be delivered in the London 2012 Paralympic Games

Analysis of young driver crash data. Report to the Research Council of Oman, Muscat

Road traffic crashes are an alarming public health issue in Oman, despite ongoing improvements in traffic law enforcement practices and technology. One of the main target groups for road safety in Oman are young drivers aged 17-25 years. This report provides an overview of the characteristics of crashes in Oman involving young drivers (17-25 years) between 1st January 2009 and 31st December 2011. Although, young drivers aged 17-25 years comprise around 17% of all licence holders in Oman, they represented more than one third of all drivers involved in road traffic crashes in the country. A total of 11,101 young drivers (17-25 years) were involved in registered crashes during the study period. From this, 7,727 young drivers (69.6%) were found to be the cause of the crashes...

Crash involvement patterns of unlicensed drivers and riders in Queensland. Report to Queensland Department of Transport and Main Roads

Unlicensed driving remains a serious problem for road safety, despite ongoing improvements in traffic law enforcement practices and technology. While it does not play a direct causative role in road crashes, unlicensed driving undermines the integrity of the driver licensing system and is associated with a range of high-risk behaviours. This report examines official road crash data from Queensland for the years 2003-08 to compare the crash involvement patterns of unlicensed drivers with those of licensed drivers and explore the scope and nature of unlicensed driving. This study replicates and extends upon two previous studies examining the involvement of unlicensed drivers in crashes in Queensland (Watson, 2004a; 2004b; Watson & Steinhardt, 2006).